The Theresa May General Election thread (edited)

Drew_TNBD

PolarityMan said:

I'm unconvinced that doorstepping and random facebook memes are as effective as people think.

I think Corbyn will get in because of the rampant meme-ing. If it can work for Trump, no reason it can't work for Corbz.

ICBM

I actually don't think Brexit is that much of an issue. Even most of those of us who opposed it - including refusing to accept the referendum result as being binding - accepted the parliamentary vote…. I certainly did.

The question is now what kind of Brexit. In my opinion Labour are far more likely to get the sort of deal the majority of us (both 'soft' Leavers and Remainers) want by engaging with the EU and getting a sensible agreement that answers most of the important issues, than either the Tories will by confrontation or the Lib Dems would even if they had the courage to try to reverse Article 50.

I also think Corbyn is seen as at most only a grudging Remainer, and I know many don't believe that he actually did vote Remain personally - he was certainly in the anti-EU Tony Benn faction originally. Whereas ironically May - who I think was a closet Leaver all along - is perceived as having U-turned on that as well.

PolarityMan

Trouble is I see the choice of botched brexit from Corbin or hard brexit from May. Both look pretty poor so Im going to have to vote only with local representation as my criteria. 

smigeon

PolarityMan said:

Trouble is I see the choice of botched brexit from Corbin or hard brexit from May. Both look pretty poor so Im going to have to vote only with local representation as my criteria. 

Why do you think Corbyn would deliver a botched Brexit, though? The Labour "negotiating team" includes Keir Starmer and Barry Gardiner (can't recall the third one), both of whom look more competent to me than Boris et al.

JezWynd

Corbyn would have the enormous advantage of not being May if/when it comes to Brexit negotiations. The EU negotiators will be so happy it's not that awful woman that they might even become quite amenable (as long as we pay up and are prepared to fudge the immigration issue).

ICBM

smigeon said:

Why do you think Corbyn would deliver a botched Brexit, though? The Labour "negotiating team" includes Keir Starmer and Barry Gardiner (can't recall the third one), both of whom look more competent to me than Boris et al.

Unfortunately it's Emily Thornberry, but luckily the Foreign Secretary is probably the least involved of the three in the nuts and bolts of negotiating an agreement. I certainly see Keir Starmer as being competent.

JezWynd said:

Corbyn would have the enormous advantage of not being May if/when it comes to Brexit negotiations. The EU negotiators will be so happy it's not that awful woman that they might even become quite amenable (as long as we pay up and are prepared to fudge the immigration issue).

And this.

Plus the fact that the European governments are all much more the moderate social democrats that Labour broadly wants to emulate than they are the no-worker-rights America-Lite corporate tax haven that the Tories want to make us.

fields5069

Fretwired said:

Axe_meister said:

Maybe a hung parliment would be a good thing. Meaning a compromise between tory cuts and high labour spend. I for one hope Simon Huges wins his seat back. He is probably the best candidate to lead the Lib Dems. But will Jezza be PM in a hung parliment I doubt it, Darth May, may hang on for a while until somebody else comes to the fore (I bet Boris is already planning his comeback).

Not sure how it would work though. Nobody will support the Tories .. May could have to resign, the Tories get a new leader and off we go again ... :-)

I guess one or more parties would have a shake-up at the top and we'd go to a re-election.

There was a similar situation in Spain, deadlock for quite a while, but then the PP got back in after a re-election. I think.

NickBotfield

I'm wondering if the big print papers still have a lot of power.  I wasn't surprised at all when the EU referendum result came in because the majority of the papers I saw in the shop, apart from the Mirror, Graun, and Indy were all super pro Brexit.  It's the same with the Tories today.

Sun, Mail, Evening Standard, Telegraph, Times, Star, Express, FT - Tory
Metro - neutral-ish?
Mirror, i, Guardian - Labour

And given how the Labour leaning papers ciculation numbers are really low compared to the Tory leaning ones (they don't even beat the Mail combined), I wouldn't be sutprised if this GE was strongly Tory, despite what some of the polls are saying

Fretwired

NickBotfield said:

I'm wondering if the big print papers still have a lot of power.  I wasn't surprised at all when the EU referendum result came in because the majority of the papers I saw in the shop, apart from the Mirror, Graun, and Indy were all super pro Brexit.  It's the same with the Tories today.

Sun, Mail, Evening Standard, Telegraph, Times, Star, Express, FT - Tory
Metro - neutral-ish?
Mirror, i, Guardian - Labour

And given how the Labour leaning papers ciculation numbers are really low compared to the Tory leaning ones (they don't even beat the Mail combined), I wouldn't be sutprised if this GE was strongly Tory, despite what some of the polls are saying

Social media is pro-Corbyn. The Tories online campaign is pants ...

It will boil down to whether Labour can get people out to vote ... the Tories voters always turn out come hell or high water.

Fretwired

Tim Farron and co make a major cock-up ..... :-)




A Liberal Democrat election stunt has dramatically backfired after it emerged the party's spoof 'May and Co estate' agency already exists and its owner revealed he will no longer vote for them following the mix-up. The mock estate agent was designed to make a scathing attack on Theresa May's so called dementia tax.

However, the real May and Co has been operating in Chelsea since 1920 and its owner John Yianni was quick to notify the party of their mistake. He said he was dismayed after members of the public called his office to ask why he was suggesting they should sell their homes to pay for social care.

A mock placard attached to the Lib Dem's press release featured a photograph of Theresa May and the words: “May and Co: selling your home to fund your care”.

The fake company was described as "Westminster's finest estate agents - dealing exclusively in selling vulnerable elderly people's homes to pay for the care they desperately need".

Mr Yianni told the inewspaper that he only learnt about the spoof agency after he received aggressive phone calls from some “very weird people”.

He said that he had been intending to vote for the Lib Dems in next week's election, but “definitely wasn’t” going to now.

“It’s actually been a terrible experience, and really quite upsetting. I’ve never had so much trouble in the 15 years I’ve been here", he said.

ICBM

It will be interesting to see which way the usual fair-weather friend rags jump at the end - they don't like to be seen to back a loser, and unless they have better information than the pollsters it's currently looking like a very close call.

octatonic

Now the Tories are at it:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/02/labour-accuses-tories-of-fake-news-over-video-of-corbyn-ira-comments

Fretwired

Lots of fake news on Facebook .. this is doing the rounds with a host of other posts ..

ToneControl

Fretwired said:

As I feared .. social media manipulation.

Labour’s election campaign is being boosted by fake social media accounts that pump out positive messages about Jeremy Corbyn thousands of times per day, The Daily Telegraph can reveal.

One in eight messages about British politics posted on Twitter are generated by automated accounts known as web robots or “bots”.

Individual accounts each post up to 1,000 messages per day attacking Theresa May or promoting Labour. They are set up to look like personal user accounts to trick other users into thinking real people are backing Labour. Automated accounts also back other parties, but to a far smaller degree.

They were described last night by Oxford University researchers as “worrying” because of the power of automated accounts to “distort” and influence views. Twitter is predominantly used by young people, who are also more likely to be Labour supporters.


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/01/exclusive-labour-election-campaign-boosted-fake-twitter-accounts/

All these positive stories could backfire:
the lazier labour voters might leave it for others to vote

ToneControl

Heartfeltdawn said:

Drew_TNBD said:

If Corbyn shouldn't have to answer questions about supposed terrorist sympathies, why should May subject herself to the baying hounds?

1) Because she's the Prime Minister
2) He has made himself available to the baying hounds.

how about "a calculated strategy"?

ToneControl

I can't believe the drama in all these dramatic news stories and posts about the polls indicating a disaster for the tories:
has anyone looked at the figures, the polls are still averaging a very large lead for the tories, 
last time they said it was neck-and-neck, and the tories got 6.5% more at the polls

typical projections are a 68% chance of a tory majority:
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

ToneControl

Also, has anyone noticed that (presumably the voters returning from UKIP and Labour) have knocked down the projection for the Liberals to 3 seats ??

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

Clegg could lose his seat they think

Heartfeltdawn

ToneControl said:

Heartfeltdawn said:

Drew_TNBD said:

If Corbyn shouldn't have to answer questions about supposed terrorist sympathies, why should May subject herself to the baying hounds?

1) Because she's the Prime Minister
2) He has made himself available to the baying hounds.

how about "a calculated strategy"?

Sure. A calculated strategy would be better than the fucking awful one she's had so far. 

ToneControl

Heartfeltdawn said:

ToneControl said:

Heartfeltdawn said:

Drew_TNBD said:

If Corbyn shouldn't have to answer questions about supposed terrorist sympathies, why should May subject herself to the baying hounds?

1) Because she's the Prime Minister
2) He has made himself available to the baying hounds.

how about "a calculated strategy"?

Sure. A calculated strategy would be better than the fucking awful one she's had so far. 

yes - calculated to not make things worse by appearing
Corbyn would probably be well-advised to do this too

Heartfeltdawn

ToneControl said:

yes - calculated to not make things worse by appearing
Corbyn would probably be well-advised to do this too

Edit. Sorry. That's cheap and unnecessary. I apologise to you, Mr TC.