The Theresa May General Election thread (edited)

mellowsun

Labour should not get too excited, lest they repeat the mistakes of the 1992 election when after a late surge polls suggested Kinnock would win. The nauseating 'victory rally' that ensued was a factor in his defeat.

Corbyn has had a great campaign but middle England will ensure he stays in opposition.

Moe_Zambeek

ToneControl said:

Also, has anyone noticed that (presumably the voters returning from UKIP and Labour) have knocked down the projection for the Liberals to 3 seats ??

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

Clegg could lose his seat they think

Good, he's one of the smuggest, most pompous hypocrites on the political scene at the moment. Listening to him is like being lectured at by a maiden aunt when you were 16. I'd love to see him have his own Portillo moment. We'd have the tragicomic triumvirate Portillo, Balls and Clegg; one of each.

One thing is for sure - if the polls turn out to be as wrong this time as they have been in the past 5 years, it'll be an existential crisis for the polling industry.

mellowsun

The problem with polls is that what people say and what they do are often very different.

Right now few will admit to voting Conservative as they will consign the country to another 5 years of austerity, but on the day they will vote for them.

Fretwired

Not sure .. Cameron was going to win the Referendum and failed, Clinton was going to walk into the White House and failed and a virtual unknown Mr Macron came from nowhere and is President of France. Based on the new world order I think Corbyn could win ... like Trump and Macron he's the underdog ... the outsider.

exocet

Fretwired said:

Not sure .. Cameron was going to win the Referendum and failed, Clinton was going to walk into the White House and failed and a virtual unknown Mr Macron came from nowhere and is President of France. Based on the new world order I think Corbyn could win ... like Trump and Macron he's the underdog ... the outsider.

I can't see Corbyn winning but can see May resigning if she doesn't improve significantly on the current majority.

ronnyb

mellowsun said:

The problem with polls is that what people say and what they do are often very different.

Right now few will admit to voting Conservative as they will consign the country to another 5 years of austerity, but on the day they will vote for them.

Not so sure about this. I've always voted Tory and never hidden the fact. I also voted remain. This time however i'm leaning towards abstain which is also the thought of a lot of other people I have talked too. At first I thought May would be a decent leader, but her remoteness, headlong attack into a hard brexit and arrogance towards the other European leaders, not to mention the u turns has completely changed my mind. The only reason I will vote Tory is the horrendous thought of Corbyn as PM, McDonnell as Chancellor of the Exchequer and Abbott as Home Secretary. Just think about it.    

ICBM

ronnyb said:

The only reason I will vote Tory is the horrendous thought of Corbyn as PM, McDonnell as Chancellor of the Exchequer and Abbott as Home Secretary. Just think about it.    

I have. How can it be worse than May, Hammond and Rudd?

PolarityMan

exocet said:8

Fretwired said:

Not sure .. Cameron was going to win the Referendum and failed, Clinton was going to walk into the White House and failed and a virtual unknown Mr Macron came from nowhere and is President of France. Based on the new world order I think Corbyn could win ... like Trump and Macron he's the underdog ... the outsider.

I can't see Corbyn winning but can see May resigning if she doesn't improve significantly on the current majority.

That could be tbe best possible outcome. 

Sporky

ICBM said:

ronnyb said:

The only reason I will vote Tory is the horrendous thought of Corbyn as PM, McDonnell as Chancellor of the Exchequer and Abbott as Home Secretary. Just think about it.    

I have. How can it be worse than May, Hammond and Rudd?

Easy. It could be May, Hammond and Clarkson.

exocet

Sporky said:

ICBM said:

ronnyb said:

The only reason I will vote Tory is the horrendous thought of Corbyn as PM, McDonnell as Chancellor of the Exchequer and Abbott as Home Secretary. Just think about it.    

I have. How can it be worse than May, Hammond and Rudd?

Easy. It could be May, Hammond and Clarkson.

Looking likely that Hammond will be replaced?

Heartfeltdawn

mellowsun said:

The problem with polls is that what people say and what they do are often very different.

Right now few will admit to voting Conservative as they will consign the country to another 5 years of austerity, but on the day they will vote for them.

Then ignore polls. Look at this forum. I've never seen it with so many people expressing the sentiment that they will vote Labour. It's not because they love Corbyn and company either. 

You then have to look at the amount of anti-May feeling, some of it coming from people who voted Leave. 

ronnyb

ICBM said:

ronnyb said:

The only reason I will vote Tory is the horrendous thought of Corbyn as PM, McDonnell as Chancellor of the Exchequer and Abbott as Home Secretary. Just think about it.    

I have. How can it be worse than May, Hammond and Rudd?

Which sums it all up. In the words of private Frazer.....we're doomed.

cruxiform

https://mobile.twitter.com/WeahsCousin/status/870747044578807809

ICBM

I thought Corbyn was by far the more convincing and inspiring, despite if anything getting the more hostile questioning.

May came across slightly better than I expected, but there was too much wordplay and much too little detail. 

Budgie

Very solid performance from JC. I just joined the Labour Party. I feel quite engaged. Hurrah.

PolarityMan

An improvement from both. Corbyn I thought spoke better and was certainly more charismatic but apart from the IRA question didn't really get asked anything that required in depth discussion. May by contrast stumbled over a few details but did show the depth of her policy involvement, for example the question on foreign aid expenditure.

Still not happy with either choice but I imagine both a breathing a sigh of relief that it didn't go even more wrong.

Fretwired

May on points .. she had the tougher questions but seemed 'strong and stable'  .. her biggest problem is her manifesto is pants. Jeremy was caught on nuclear weapons - I have no problem with his stance as he's had it for 30+ years. Why replace Trident if you're never going to use it? Spend the money on something else. I'd back scrapping Trident.

DarnWeight

The polls have only been moving in one direction for the last week or so, and it's not like Corbyn's stance on nuclear weapons has only just come to light.  It's clearly not that big a turn-off to the electorate at large.  A couple of old-school blowhards in the QT audience aren't happy that he won't answer "yes" to a bullshit hypothetical involving nuking North Korea?  So what.

I was impressed by Corbyn's far more detailed/nuanced answers to some of the Brexit questions that were put to him.  May still trying to make mileage by playing the "don't-tell-him-Pike" card...it's just not cutting it any more (if it ever was).

Freebird

Could somebody please translate this into plain English for me, and also explain why some members of the audience are clapping like performing seals at the end of it? I am genuinely confused!

Tavernor

Personally I think the stick people throw at Corbyn about nuclear weapons is unfair. Let's be real, North Korea is not a threat to us. For arguments sake though , let's say it was. If a nuke was sent by some crackpot dictator at us, why are so many people appealed at the idea of not wiping out their civilian population in an act of pure revenge? I do understand the deterrent of mutually assured destruction, but in this day and age I don't think being against even a retaliatory strike is a bad thing. I don't know, maybe I'm a loopy idealist. I will sort of counter my argument by saying I do think there will be a nuke used in our lifetime mind.