The Theresa May General Election thread (edited)

Heartfeltdawn

Ah, bloody FT. It was talking about this:

https://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/2017/04/24/the-first-welsh-poll-of-the-general-election/

Professor Scully is not the sort of chap given to hyperbole. 

Fretwired

Heartfeltdawn said:

Ah, bloody FT. It was talking about this:

https://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/2017/04/24/the-first-welsh-poll-of-the-general-election/

Professor Scully is not the sort of chap given to hyperbole. 

The danger with this is the Tories think their home and dry so people stay at home and Labour and the Lib Dems get what vote they have out. I also think these polls will force the left into alliances. They have no choice.

Heartfeltdawn

Fretwired said:

Heartfeltdawn said:

Ah, bloody FT. It was talking about this:

https://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/2017/04/24/the-first-welsh-poll-of-the-general-election/

Professor Scully is not the sort of chap given to hyperbole. 

The danger with this is the Tories think their home and dry so people stay at home and Labour and the Lib Dems get what vote they have out. I also think these polls will force the left into alliances. They have no choice.

The Trump election rammed home the importance of getting your leading figure out into those areas that have suffered industrially. I don't believe the Conservatives would miss that and May being out there today suggests they haven't. Wales and the North are vital to her plans. 

Seeing the way Carswell sacked off from standing again and gave his vote to the blue brigade, I suspect you will find a few UKIP types in Wales doing the same. 

Jalapeno

May also needs to be careful that her team and Hammond especially do not to frighten the horses of her core vote - pre-manifesto musings about tax rises, possible cuts to pensions are not going to play well with supporters ....

ICBM

Fretwired said:

Mandelson

Heartfeltdawn said:

Mandelson

There's something putting me off this idea… can't quite put a finger on it.

Bridgehouse

ICBM said:

Fretwired said:

Mandelson

Heartfeltdawn said:

Mandelson

There's something putting me off this idea… can't quite put a finger on it.

Moe_Zambeek

Jalapeno said:

May also needs to be careful that her team and Hammond especially do not to frighten the horses of her core vote - pre-manifesto musings about tax rises, possible cuts to pensions are not going to play well with supporters ....

Consider the situation though - if you are a Brexit supporting Tory pensioner, but concerned about losing the triple lock and winter fuel allowance / other pensioner benefits, or a high-earner concerned about inheritance or income tax rises, who will you vote for if not Tory? Definitely not Labour under Corbyn; not Lib Dem as they're anti Brexit; the Greens are basically nutters living in a different universe (based on their last person-ifesto) and UKIP without Nige are in a state of chaos / warfare.  This might be the best opportunity the Tories have to float policies that would be politically toxic in other circumstances and still win. In a few years Jezza will be gone and maybe someone like Yvette Cooper gets the top job and some normality returns...

Fretwired

Moe_Zambeek said:

Jalapeno said:

May also needs to be careful that her team and Hammond especially do not to frighten the horses of her core vote - pre-manifesto musings about tax rises, possible cuts to pensions are not going to play well with supporters ....

Consider the situation though - if you are a Brexit supporting Tory pensioner, but concerned about losing the triple lock and winter fuel allowance / other pensioner benefits, or a high-earner concerned about inheritance or income tax rises, who will you vote for if not Tory? Definitely not Labour under Corbyn; not Lib Dem as they're anti Brexit; the Greens are basically nutters living in a different universe (based on their last person-ifesto) and UKIP without Nige are in a state of chaos / warfare.  This might be the best opportunity the Tories have to float policies that would be politically toxic in other circumstances and still win. In a few years Jezza will be gone and maybe someone like Yvette Cooper gets the top job and some normality returns...

On the money with that ..wis'd

Heartfeltdawn

Jalapeno said:

May also needs to be careful that her team and Hammond especially do not to frighten the horses of her core vote - pre-manifesto musings about tax rises, possible cuts to pensions are not going to play well with supporters ....

And to whom will her core vote go if they are scared?

At present Labour and UKIP are losing votes in a lot of areas. Cons are gaining Labour and UKIP votes, Libs gaining Labour and a few small c Cons. Any increase in Scotland come election day is an added bonus.

siremoon

Heartfeltdawn said:

Fretwired said:

Mandelson's group with local agreements - that way Farron and Corbyn can say its not official policy (if it backfires) but something grass root supporters want to do. The Lib Dems are targeting St Albans and will need held from Labour and the Greens.

What Mandelson is trying to do with Open Britain is a bit different. It crosses parties but it's not actual coalition as we saw with the Lib Dems and the Conservatives. If we're talking actual coalition between parties, then everyone's come out farting against it.

A number of Tory MPs have quit Open Britain this morning

Fretwired

siremoon said:

A number of Tory MPs have quit Open Britain this morning

Good job too .. the Tories are promoting a Closed Britain .... :-)

Heartfeltdawn

siremoon said:

A number of Tory MPs have quit Open Britain this morning

Dominic Grieve said he was never consulted about the attack list. Not a hard decision for any of them to quit, not least as the party constitution says you can't campaign against its own candidates. Had they not left OB, then there was the threat of deselection and/or expulsion. 

capo4th

Will it be over soon ? ? 

ToneControl

Fretwired said:

Listened to the R4 interview this morning with Labour's Sir Keir Starmer. If Labour win they will immediately guarantee the rights of all EU citizens without expecting anything in return and will insist on access to the single market, no tariffs etc. In fact every benefit we have now. Nick Robinson suggested this was a wish list and what happens if the EU say NON. There would be a vote in the HoC and if the deal was rejected we'd remain in the EU.

So if you want to remain in the EU vote Labour.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/25/general-election-2017-labour-leaves-door-open-keeping-uk-eu/

 

pure genius
there goes all the remaining former labour voters who are Brexiteers

Heartfeltdawn

It truly is incredible. So early in a campaign and you make one of your election promises to be one that helps EU citizens. 

The Thick of It was written at the right time. There is no way you could satirise this any further. 

ICBM

ToneControl said:

Fretwired said:

Listened to the R4 interview this morning with Labour's Sir Keir Starmer. If Labour win they will immediately guarantee the rights of all EU citizens without expecting anything in return and will insist on access to the single market, no tariffs etc. In fact every benefit we have now. Nick Robinson suggested this was a wish list and what happens if the EU say NON. There would be a vote in the HoC and if the deal was rejected we'd remain in the EU.

So if you want to remain in the EU vote Labour.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/25/general-election-2017-labour-leaves-door-open-keeping-uk-eu/

pure genius
there goes all the remaining former labour voters who are Brexiteers

… but potentially capturing Remain voters who don't want a hard Brexit, ideally would prefer no Brexit at all, are disappointed that the pro-EU Lib Dems appear too weak to grasp this firmly enough, and/or who don't think Tim Nice But Dim would make a very good PM.

I know who I'm voting for now.

VimFuego

ICBM said:

ToneControl said:

Fretwired said:

Listened to the R4 interview this morning with Labour's Sir Keir Starmer. If Labour win they will immediately guarantee the rights of all EU citizens without expecting anything in return and will insist on access to the single market, no tariffs etc. In fact every benefit we have now. Nick Robinson suggested this was a wish list and what happens if the EU say NON. There would be a vote in the HoC and if the deal was rejected we'd remain in the EU.

So if you want to remain in the EU vote Labour.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/25/general-election-2017-labour-leaves-door-open-keeping-uk-eu/

pure genius
there goes all the remaining former labour voters who are Brexiteers

… but potentially capturing Remain voters who don't want a hard Brexit, ideally would prefer no Brexit at all, are disappointed that the pro-EU Lib Dems appear too weak to grasp this firmly enough, and/or who don't think Tim Nice But Dim would make a very good PM.

I know who I'm voting for now.

it's an interesting gambit north of the border. It's bascially occupying the same space as the SNP, but with a (slightly) more realistic chance of also getting seats in England and Wales.

Fretwired

Take this with a pinch of salt but I've been told that May is about to dump Brexit and campaign on the NHS - her manifesto will include proper funding for social care and the cash Hunt wants for the NHS and will be funded in part by tax rises, hence the talk about ending triple lock on pensions and Cameron's pledge not to raise tax. If she does that combined with Brexit Labour will get slaughtered in their heartlands.

Let's see if what I've been told is right.

 

VimFuego

she'd be crazy, NHS and social care is where they are weakest. And tax rises? she'll be at permenant war with her own party.

Heartfeltdawn

Fretwired said:

Take this with a pinch of salt but I've been told that May is about to dump Brexit and campaign on the NHS - her manifesto will include proper funding for social care and the cash Hunt wants for the NHS and will be funded in part by tax rises, hence the talk about ending triple lock on pensions and Cameron's pledge not to raise tax. If she does that combined with Brexit Labour will get slaughtered in their heartlands.

Let's see if what I've been told is right.

 

A quote from the 10 April article from www.lordashcroftpolls.com:

"Asked what were the most important issues facing Britain as a whole, six in ten of our poll respondents named “negotiating Britain’s exit from the European Union on the right terms” among the top three. This put it at the top of the priority list for the country, both for Remain and Leave voters. However, when asked what mattered most to “you and your family”, the Brexit negotiations fell to third place behind “improving the NHS” and “tackling the cost of living”. Only 39% of all voters named it among the top three issues on this measure."

In other debates on this forum, some of the Leave voters had postulated that the referendum result would see a corresponding change in by-election and GE voting patterns. The EU referendum was on one issue, one that didn't follow party lines at all. When it comes to GE voting, it falls back into far more traditional issues and lines. The NHS is the number one thing for voters. Leave knew this and flirted with it to their advantage. 

I think there was a YouGov poll out last week that put May ahead of Corbyn when it came to the NHS. For a man who is so against privatisation, that's quite a kicking. 

(NB: This is the one I was thinking about.)

When VimFuego above says that the NHS and social care is where they are weakest, he is right when he refers to THEY ie. the Conservative party. I actually think that many of the electorate view May as her own person, a bit distant to traditional Tory who is a bit pompous and privately educated. She isn't a greater speaker or orator but there is a definite connection between her and the social strata of the electorate that no other leader has right now. 

So if she is going for the Labour heartland vote on the NHS, it's the best fucking time to do it, whilst your opponents are wittering about Europe. 

I don't think they will dump Brexit outright but that's already on the table. With the classic Crosby dead cat analogy in mind, it's been thrown in there and all the other parties are squabbling about it and not focusing on issues at home. 

I'd be inclined to think your informant is wise