Autumn general election - Tories on war footing

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  • VimFuegoVimFuego Frets: 5967
    so we really are in the realm of neverendium. We've basically had an election every year since 2015 now. Are they hoping to bore us into submission? 

    I'm not locked in here with you, you are locked in here with me.

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  • HeartfeltdawnHeartfeltdawn Frets: 10684
    jpfamps said:
    The best way to understand how to get your message to the people is to go and talk to the people, not to bury yourself in a central London office with a load of people who did PPE at Oxbridge. 


    Like Seamus Milne for example......

    He's one bloke. How does he constitute 'a load of people'?  I'm not suggesting that the PPE crowd are all Conservative.

    Instead I talked of how the think tanks operate and how the Momentum approach is a bit different. Undeniably there are far more Conservative think tanks out there. Some like Policy Exchange and the Centre for Social Cohesion have a great deal of media visibility thanks to past and present associations, and through appearances by representatives on Newsnight and Question Time. I would warrant that more people would recognise Douglas Murray than Neal Lawson, the chair of Compass. Most think tanks are about research leading to documents that can shape and inform political policy.

    In the past these were very influential within Labour (the Fabian Society being the obvious example). It's a bit different now. Instead we have groups like Compass and Momentum with some ability to shape the party's direction. They're accessible, they want people within them, and personally I think it's refreshing to have people involved giving their views rather than a top down studied and researched policy document. Certainly when it comes to the Conservatives they need to find that engagement again after the dismal failure of Nick Timothy and Fiona Hill last time out at the GE ballot boxes. 
    I make Jeremy Paxman look like Fingermouse. 
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  • ClarkyClarky Frets: 2751
    maybe she knows  there's some awful shit coming next year and a Nov election is her only chance of avoiding the blame
    mended
    play every note as if it were your first
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  • HeartfeltdawnHeartfeltdawn Frets: 10684
    Tomorrow's Express:

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DdwAkNYVwAA3Oq0.jpg:large

    https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/963196/boris-johnson-theresa-may-tories-general-election-conservative-party-latest

    Christ. If Boris says it won't happen, I'd better contact Electoral Services now and say I'm fine to be a presiding officer come October. 
    I make Jeremy Paxman look like Fingermouse. 
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  • jpfampsjpfamps Frets: 1316
    jpfamps said:
    The best way to understand how to get your message to the people is to go and talk to the people, not to bury yourself in a central London office with a load of people who did PPE at Oxbridge. 


    Like Seamus Milne for example......

    He's one bloke. How does he constitute 'a load of people'?  I'm not suggesting that the PPE crowd are all Conservative.

    Instead I talked of how the think tanks operate and how the Momentum approach is a bit different. Undeniably there are far more Conservative think tanks out there. Some like Policy Exchange and the Centre for Social Cohesion have a great deal of media visibility thanks to past and present associations, and through appearances by representatives on Newsnight and Question Time. I would warrant that more people would recognise Douglas Murray than Neal Lawson, the chair of Compass. Most think tanks are about research leading to documents that can shape and inform political policy.

    In the past these were very influential within Labour (the Fabian Society being the obvious example). It's a bit different now. Instead we have groups like Compass and Momentum with some ability to shape the party's direction. They're accessible, they want people within them, and personally I think it's refreshing to have people involved giving their views rather than a top down studied and researched policy document. Certainly when it comes to the Conservatives they need to find that engagement again after the dismal failure of Nick Timothy and Fiona Hill last time out at the GE ballot boxes. 
    Certainly one criticism of Teresa May (and there be many) is that she doesn't operate in a particularly collaborative fashion, but relies on a small circle of people she trusts; which was self evident from the genreral election, although those who worked with her at the Home Office said pretty much the same think.

    I'm not that au fait with Compass, however I'm not convinced that Momentum have as much influence in the Labour party as they think they do.

    An acquaintence of mine, who is trying with his colleagues to get his MP deselected (who incidentally read PPE at Oxford...) and more left-wing candidate installed in a safe Labour seat views the Momentum contingent of the local party very much as useful idiots.

    It will be interesting to see of Momentum managed to get a vote for a new EU referendum on the adgenda at the party conference.

    It was also interesting to see the selection of neither a Momentum-backed nor Unite-backed candidate for Labour nomination in the Lewisham by-election.
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  • crunchmancrunchman Frets: 3352
    ICBM said:
    hywelg said:
    It is just Remainer Tories sabre rattling, raising the prospect of an election and their willingness to commit electoral suicide in persuit of staying in, in an attempt to get May to adopt their vision of a UK outside the EU. i.e. still, in all but name, IN.
    It's exactly the opposite. It's a narrow-minded, aggressive minority of hardline Leavers threatening to throw their toys out of the pram and bring down their own party because they aren't going to get what they demand.


    The problem is that what they are demanding is the only sensible option if we are going to leave.

    If we stay in the Single Market, or the Customs Union, then we will have to abide by all the rules that Brussels makes, but we will have no say in them.  We will also be unable to negotiate any trade deals with anyone else, so we are in the worst of all worlds.

    There are only two possible options that make any sense.  We either leave completely, or we stay in, and fully sign up to the EU - and that means joining the Euro.  If we stay in, but outside the Euro, we will be sidelined anyway.

    The remainers who want to go back to the status quo before 2016 can never have their wish.  The EU will not look like that in 10 or 15 years time.  There are already a lot of tensions with Eastern Europe if you look at what is going on with what is basically a fascist government in Hungary, and Poland isn't a lot better with what they have done to their judiciary.

    The big problem is the economics of it though.  Look at what is happening in Italy:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/may/17/populists-rise-to-power-in-italy-sets-perilous-precedent-for-eu

    It looks like Italy will be going the same way as Greece.  Remember Greece's problems haven't been solved, they have just been punted into the future.   Italy is the third biggest economy in the Eurozone.  The policies that the new government wants to implement will bankrupt the Italian state.  In the past, they may have got away with things like that because the Lira would have halved in value and devalued the debt.  In the Euro that can't happen.

    One of two things will happen.  At this point, it's quite likely that the Euro will split apart, or some countries will leave, when all of this comes home to roost.  Either way it's going to be like the 2008 credit crunch all over again in the EU.  The only way to avoid that is for the Eurozone to become more harmonised and more tightly managed from the centre.  They will need common tax policies and common economic policies across the Eurozone.  That is highly unlikely to happen.  Ireland and Luxembourg aren't going to sign up for something that will mess up their nice little arrangements with all the big multinationals with their European bases there.  Meanwhile, the likes of Italy and Greece would never sign up for the kind of tax arrangements that would make it work.

    Even if somehow, they do manage to centralise taxes, we would still be stuffed if we stay in.  A more integrated bloc like that would sideline us if we remain outside the Euro.  The much more likely event is that it all goes pear shaped, in which case we are better off out and fostering trading relationships with the rest of the world.  If we stay in the Customs Union we can't make those trade agreements.

    The other thing to bear in mind is that this isn't purely about economic issues.  When the EU tells us we have to give prisoners the vote, and overrules an overwhelming vote in our Parliament that prisoners should not have the vote, there is a fundamental problem.  Even if there is some economic pain, that is a price worth paying.  Any economic pain is going to be short term anyway.  The bigger pain will be what will happen long term if we stay in, and it all collapses.

    The government must have the flexibility to be able to threaten to walk away if they don't like the deal.  If I go into a car dealership, and say I am definitely going to buy a certain car, then all my bargaining power is taken away from me.  I will get a much better deal if I can threaten to go down the road and buy a different car.  If we get to the point where the government's hands are tied like that, we will get completely screwed.  We have to be able to threaten to walk way, and there has to a knowledge on the EU's part that we are willing to do that.

    This will be an unpopular view, but the population of Northern Ireland is only around 3% of the total population of the UK.  We can't let the Irish border thing hold us to ransom.  If we have to threaten a hard border, then that's what we should do.

    Some of the hard core remainers in Parliament and the Lords are doing everything in their power to stop us from leaving, and at least they are consistent to their principles.  The problem is the people who say we have to respect the result of the referendum, but then try to tie the government's hands and force us into remaining with all the worst bits of it, but without any say.  They have no place running the country.  Hopefully local Tory parties will deselect some of these clowns if there is another general election.

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  • HeartfeltdawnHeartfeltdawn Frets: 10684
    Yes, I agree. Relying on such a small coterie made for a very claustrophobic Conservative campaign.

    I'd also agree that Momentum don't have as much influence within Labour in terms of policy as they think they do but they undoubtedly have an influence when it comes to current voting numbers. The appointment of Jennie Formby put Momentum in their place so it will be interesting to see if they become a bit rowdier in the future. 

    Plenty of idiots in the union side of Labour too. Seeing the putrid comments Marcus Barnett wrote last week on Venezuela and Maduro was most unedifying. The Lewisham East result was interesting. Aaron Bastani wrote an excellent piece for which talks about the winner:

    "Three things stood out during the campaign as to be almost intuitive among the selectorate. The first was the expectation that the candidate should be BAME. The second was that they should be embedded within the local community and enjoy a track record of grassroots activism. The third was the necessity of supporting the policies laid out in the 2017 manifesto.

    Five years ago Heidi Alexander’s successor would likely have been a former parliamentary researcher – as Alexander herself once was. While Daby was something of a chosen candidate by the local right, she was also a woman with impeccable activist credentials. This is someone who is a councillor and a deputy mayor locally, who started a local food bank and is widely known and liked. If that, rather than policy advisers and Westminster wonks, is the new ‘machine politics’, then long may it continue. It now seems the revolution within Labour isn’t just limited to changed policies and a left wing general secretary and National Executive Committee (NEC), its has also unleashed a broader sense – beyond the organised left – that this should be a democratic, locally-focused organisation."


    The closing paragraph is a very good summation:


    "
    The new politics has been even more successful than some of its advocates might have expected. Now, the machine which has so brilliantly consolidated the Corbyn leadership – across the board – must take seriously its key claims of grassroots organisation and being situated within communities. Anything else will end in defeat. The highest values articulated by Labour’s left these last few years aren’t just morally preferable – they are politically necessary."

    I make Jeremy Paxman look like Fingermouse. 
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  • FretwiredFretwired Frets: 15343
    edited May 22
    Yes, I agree. Relying on such a small coterie made for a very claustrophobic Conservative campaign.

    I'd also agree that Momentum don't have as much influence within Labour in terms of policy as they think they do but they undoubtedly have an influence when it comes to current voting numbers. The appointment of Jennie Formby put Momentum in their place so it will be interesting to see if they become a bit rowdier in the future. 

    Plenty of idiots in the union side of Labour too. Seeing the putrid comments Marcus Barnett wrote last week on Venezuela and Maduro was most unedifying. The Lewisham East result was interesting. Aaron Bastani wrote an excellent piece for which talks about the winner:

    "Three things stood out during the campaign as to be almost intuitive among the selectorate. The first was the expectation that the candidate should be BAME. The second was that they should be embedded within the local community and enjoy a track record of grassroots activism. The third was the necessity of supporting the policies laid out in the 2017 manifesto.

    Five years ago Heidi Alexander’s successor would likely have been a former parliamentary researcher – as Alexander herself once was. While Daby was something of a chosen candidate by the local right, she was also a woman with impeccable activist credentials. This is someone who is a councillor and a deputy mayor locally, who started a local food bank and is widely known and liked. If that, rather than policy advisers and Westminster wonks, is the new ‘machine politics’, then long may it continue. It now seems the revolution within Labour isn’t just limited to changed policies and a left wing general secretary and National Executive Committee (NEC), its has also unleashed a broader sense – beyond the organised left – that this should be a democratic, locally-focused organisation."


    The closing paragraph is a very good summation:


    "
    The new politics has been even more successful than some of its advocates might have expected. Now, the machine which has so brilliantly consolidated the Corbyn leadership – across the board – must take seriously its key claims of grassroots organisation and being situated within communities. Anything else will end in defeat. The highest values articulated by Labour’s left these last few years aren’t just morally preferable – they are politically necessary."

    I'd be careful writing off Momentum completely. They have union funding and have moved to a membership subscription which at the end of last year had attracted 40,000 paying members. They have an excellent tech savvy social media team which has been able to galvanise activists in some key constituencies and build working relationships with other left wing organisations. They also have representation on Labour's NEC with three members. A Labour leader would be foolish to antagonise them. If the Tories had any balls or a coherent strategy they'd stop navel gazing and attack Momentum and John McDonnell and his 'scrap capitalism' plan.

    As it is Momentum's social media campaign is pointing that that May has been forced to pinch a major Labour idea - nationalising the railways. And after this week's crisis on the railways Corbyn's desire to bring the railways back under state ownership is becoming mainstream.
    My pump-action drivel gun is smoking hot today!
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  • HeartfeltdawnHeartfeltdawn Frets: 10684
    Fretwired said:
    I'd be careful writing off Momentum completely. They have union funding and have moved to a membership subscription which at the end of last year had attracted 40,000 paying members. They have an excellent tech savvy social media team which has been able to galvanise activists in some key constituencies and build working relationships with other left wing organisations. They also have representation on Labour's NEC with three members. A Labour leader would be foolish to antagonise them. If the Tories had any balls or a coherent strategy they'd stop navel gazing and attack Momentum and John McDonnell and his 'scrap capitalism' plan.

    As it is Momentum's social media campaign is pointing that that May has been forced to pinch a major Labour idea - nationalising the railways. And after this week's crisis on the railways Corbyn's desire to bring the railways back under state ownership is becoming mainstream.
    I'm certainly not writing them off. If Corbyn is not successful at the next election, then Momentum will rightly ask why they failed to win. Big Len will be under some scrutiny. Momentum know how to reach out to other groups as you say: certain unions aren't like that. 

    I fully expect a few quips about rail nationalisation to pop up at PMQs this week :)
    I make Jeremy Paxman look like Fingermouse. 
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  • ICBMICBM Frets: 30902
    crunchman said:

    The problem is that what they are demanding is the only sensible option if we are going to leave.

    If we stay in the Single Market, or the Customs Union, then we will have to abide by all the rules that Brussels makes, but we will have no say in them.  We will also be unable to negotiate any trade deals with anyone else, so we are in the worst of all worlds.

    There are only two possible options that make any sense.  We either leave completely, or we stay in, and fully sign up to the EU - and that means joining the Euro.  If we stay in, but outside the Euro, we will be sidelined anyway.

    I would say it's the exact opposite. The best option is to rejoin the EFTA - not the customs union - which has all the advantages of the EU but without the three biggest disadvantages... the CAP/CFP, the customs union, and the Euro. The EFTA is *not* a customs union, so members can do exactly as you say, and negotiate outside deals with other countries.

    If you don't think this is a sensible solution, why does it work for Switzerland, Norway and Iceland?

    crunchman said:

    This will be an unpopular view, but the population of Northern Ireland is only around 3% of the total population of the UK.  We can't let the Irish border thing hold us to ransom.  If we have to threaten a hard border, then that's what we should do.
    And restart the Troubles?
    "Take these three items, some WD-40, a vise grip, and a roll of duct tape. Any man worth his salt can fix almost any problem with this stuff alone."
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  • Axe_meisterAxe_meister Frets: 2108
    It's gotten to the point where I don't care if we are in or not. What pisses me off is the Tories airing their dirty laundry in public. They need to get together behind closed doors, have a punch up and decide what the Tory policy is and stick with it.
    Regardless of Brexit, JRM or Johnson heading up the party will be political suicide. Pretty much every moderate Tory I know is filled with dread they either of these two will head up the party and would vote for Corbyn given the lack of a competitive Lib Dem party.

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  • crunchmancrunchman Frets: 3352
    ICBM said:
    crunchman said:

    The problem is that what they are demanding is the only sensible option if we are going to leave.

    If we stay in the Single Market, or the Customs Union, then we will have to abide by all the rules that Brussels makes, but we will have no say in them.  We will also be unable to negotiate any trade deals with anyone else, so we are in the worst of all worlds.

    There are only two possible options that make any sense.  We either leave completely, or we stay in, and fully sign up to the EU - and that means joining the Euro.  If we stay in, but outside the Euro, we will be sidelined anyway.

    I would say it's the exact opposite. The best option is to rejoin the EFTA - not the customs union - which has all the advantages of the EU but without the three biggest disadvantages... the CAP/CFP, the customs union, and the Euro. The EFTA is *not* a customs union, so members can do exactly as you say, and negotiate outside deals with other countries.

    If you don't think this is a sensible solution, why does it work for Switzerland, Norway and Iceland?

    http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2013/01/28/uk-eu-euroscepticism-norway-model-swiss-model-efta/

    This is the key section:

     Access to the internal market, however, comes at a price as these states are required to adopt all EU legislation in relevant areas without access to the EU’s decision-making institutions. This includes provisions strictly related to the four freedoms (the free movement of goods, services, capital and persons) in addition to legislation in a variety of horizontal areas such as labour law, consumer protection, environmental policy, statistics and company law, which constitutes a large bulk of EU acquis. The EEA Agreement allows some access to the Commission’s expert groups and comitology committees but no formal access to either the Parliament or the Council. The fact that the EFTA parties to the EEA Agreement do not have a seat at the table means that their impact is undoubtedly limited.

    If we do that, then we are still being controlled by the EU.


    Then this:

    http://www.efta.int/eea/policy-areas/persons

    That says:

    The free movement of persons is one of the core rights guaranteed in the European Economic Area (EEA), the extended Internal Market which unites all the EU Member States and three EEA EFTA States – Iceland, Liechtenstein and Norway. It is perhaps the most important right for individuals, as it gives citizens of the 31 EEA countries the opportunity to live, work, establish business and study in any of these countries.

    Free movement wasn't my main reason for voting leave, but free movement was probably the biggest single issue in the campaign, and the reason that a lot of people voted to leave.  For that reason alone the EFTA is a complete political non-starter.


    ICBM said:
    crunchman said:

    This will be an unpopular view, but the population of Northern Ireland is only around 3% of the total population of the UK.  We can't let the Irish border thing hold us to ransom.  If we have to threaten a hard border, then that's what we should do.
    And restart the Troubles?


    Hopefully the people of Northern Ireland have got to the point where they don't want to go back to violence.  It's not the same situation as it used to be anyway.  You have a lot of power devolved to the Northern Ireland Assembly at Stormont (however dysfunctional that may be).  The Nationalists have a say in the power structures, so it's not like it was 30 years ago.  I'm not saying there wouldn't be problems, but I don't think it would end up back at that point even in the worst case scenario.

    I don't think it would actually come to that point anyway but the threat of it would make some kind of compromise possible.  While the Lords and Parliament seem to be determined to insist that we get a deal, then the EU will have us over a barrel and will never compromise.  If the Irish government thought that there was a realistic chance of a border being re-imposed, then they would be changing their tune, and the EU tune would change with it.

    Worst case, the hard border goes in as a short term arrangement until a deal can be struck.  I don't think anyone wants a hard border long term, but our negotiating position is much stronger if the option of one, even as a short term interim arrangement, is on the table.

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  • HeartfeltdawnHeartfeltdawn Frets: 10684
    It's gotten to the point where I don't care if we are in or not. What pisses me off is the Tories airing their dirty laundry in public. They need to get together behind closed doors, have a punch up and decide what the Tory policy is and stick with it.

    It's more than just airing soiled slacks in public: they've been doing it using the public. The referendum result became a mighty weapon to smack against the liberal EU Conservatives. "The will of the people" and all that. 

    I make Jeremy Paxman look like Fingermouse. 
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  • FretwiredFretwired Frets: 15343
    ICBM said:
    crunchman said:

    The problem is that what they are demanding is the only sensible option if we are going to leave.

    If we stay in the Single Market, or the Customs Union, then we will have to abide by all the rules that Brussels makes, but we will have no say in them.  We will also be unable to negotiate any trade deals with anyone else, so we are in the worst of all worlds.

    There are only two possible options that make any sense.  We either leave completely, or we stay in, and fully sign up to the EU - and that means joining the Euro.  If we stay in, but outside the Euro, we will be sidelined anyway.

    I would say it's the exact opposite. The best option is to rejoin the EFTA - not the customs union - which has all the advantages of the EU but without the three biggest disadvantages... the CAP/CFP, the customs union, and the Euro. The EFTA is *not* a customs union, so members can do exactly as you say, and negotiate outside deals with other countries.

    If you don't think this is a sensible solution, why does it work for Switzerland, Norway and Iceland?

    crunchman said:

    This will be an unpopular view, but the population of Northern Ireland is only around 3% of the total population of the UK.  We can't let the Irish border thing hold us to ransom.  If we have to threaten a hard border, then that's what we should do.
    And restart the Troubles?
    EFTA is off the table at the moment. The Norwegians are against it and the EU is not keen.

    And Brexit is possibly becoming an impossible task due to Italy's Five Star Movement. They are watching Brexit carefully and if they see the UK joining EFTA then they will see a viable route to dump the Euro, get out of the EU but still be able to have frictionless trade. I think the EU will shut the EFTA door firmly shut.

    And depending what happens in Italy I think a free trade EU/UK deal is dead. The EU won't want to negotiate as it cannot afford to lose Italy so will take a tough stance. Hard Brexit coming.
    My pump-action drivel gun is smoking hot today!
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  • ICBMICBM Frets: 30902
    Heartfeltdawn said:

    The referendum result became a mighty weapon to smack against the liberal EU Conservatives. "The will of the people" and all that. 
    The hard Leavers also have a habit of lying about what the referendum result means - "this is not what the people voted for" and similar, when they don't think they're going to get their own way of a full hard Brexit  - which for some reason the media seem unwilling to slap them down on.

    In fact, they have no idea what anyone who voted Leave actually voted for, other than to leave. The only question on the ballot paper asked if we should leave the EU or remain in it - so *any* final deal which involves actually leaving the EU is 'the Brexit the people voted for'.
    "Take these three items, some WD-40, a vise grip, and a roll of duct tape. Any man worth his salt can fix almost any problem with this stuff alone."
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  • FretwiredFretwired Frets: 15343
    ICBM said:
    Heartfeltdawn said:

    The referendum result became a mighty weapon to smack against the liberal EU Conservatives. "The will of the people" and all that. 
    The hard Leavers also have a habit of lying about what the referendum result means - "this is not what the people voted for" and similar, when they don't think they're going to get their own way of a full hard Brexit  - which for some reason the media seem unwilling to slap them down on.

    In fact, they have no idea what anyone who voted Leave actually voted for, other than to leave. The only question on the ballot paper asked if we should leave the EU or remain in it - so *any* final deal which involves actually leaving the EU is 'the Brexit the people voted for'.
    Technically people voted for a hard Brexit as the question was simple. It did not mention a deal of any kind.
    My pump-action drivel gun is smoking hot today!
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  • crunchmancrunchman Frets: 3352
    ICBM said:
    Heartfeltdawn said:

    The referendum result became a mighty weapon to smack against the liberal EU Conservatives. "The will of the people" and all that. 
    The hard Leavers also have a habit of lying about what the referendum result means - "this is not what the people voted for" and similar, when they don't think they're going to get their own way of a full hard Brexit  - which for some reason the media seem unwilling to slap them down on.

    In fact, they have no idea what anyone who voted Leave actually voted for, other than to leave. The only question on the ballot paper asked if we should leave the EU or remain in it - so *any* final deal which involves actually leaving the EU is 'the Brexit the people voted for'.

    The problem is the only Brexit that makes any sense is the hard version.  See my post at 11:58.
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  • ICBMICBM Frets: 30902
    Fretwired said:

    Technically people voted for a hard Brexit as the question was simple. It did not mention a deal of any kind. 
    No, they voted to leave the EU. They did not vote to leave the single market, or any of the other institutions which we belonged to before we joined the EU (or EEC as it was then).

    This is exactly the point - both our interpretations can be correct because no other question was asked. So for the hard Leavers to claim that anything short of no deal is "defying the will of the people" is a deliberate deceit.

    Which is exactly why the implementation needs to be left to Parliament - considering itself advised by the referendum result - and not a small minority of Tory MPs to dictate to the government.
    "Take these three items, some WD-40, a vise grip, and a roll of duct tape. Any man worth his salt can fix almost any problem with this stuff alone."
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  • WhitecatWhitecat Frets: 1566
    Fretwired said:
    ICBM said:
    Heartfeltdawn said:

    The referendum result became a mighty weapon to smack against the liberal EU Conservatives. "The will of the people" and all that. 
    The hard Leavers also have a habit of lying about what the referendum result means - "this is not what the people voted for" and similar, when they don't think they're going to get their own way of a full hard Brexit  - which for some reason the media seem unwilling to slap them down on.

    In fact, they have no idea what anyone who voted Leave actually voted for, other than to leave. The only question on the ballot paper asked if we should leave the EU or remain in it - so *any* final deal which involves actually leaving the EU is 'the Brexit the people voted for'.
    Technically people voted for a hard Brexit as the question was simple. It did not mention a deal of any kind.
    The question asked if we wanted to leave the European Union.

    We can do that, and still be members of the EEA - because we are members of the EEA now by separate treaty, and that was not on the ballot paper.

    So it wasn't so simple.
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  • ICBMICBM Frets: 30902
    crunchman said:

    The problem is the only Brexit that makes any sense is the hard version.  See my post at 11:58.
    So, once again, why does belonging to the EFTA work well for Norway, Switzerland and Iceland?
    "Take these three items, some WD-40, a vise grip, and a roll of duct tape. Any man worth his salt can fix almost any problem with this stuff alone."
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  • p90foolp90fool Frets: 7704
    crunchman said:

    This will be an unpopular view, but the population of Northern Ireland is only around 3% of the total population of the UK.  We can't let the Irish border thing hold us to ransom.  If we have to threaten a hard border, then that's what we should do.

    The thing is, it's not really holding us to ransom, it's holding the Tory party to ransom because they're dependant on a handful of Northern Irish MPs for their majority. 

    The Tories wouldn't bother with any handwringing about Northern Ireland if they'd won May's hoped-for landslide - they'd have steamrollered any old crap through without a second thought. 
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  • crunchmancrunchman Frets: 3352
    ICBM said:
    crunchman said:

    The problem is the only Brexit that makes any sense is the hard version.  See my post at 11:58.
    So, once again, why does belonging to the EFTA work well for Norway, Switzerland and Iceland?

    Because they are willing to accept free movement.   Politically that's a non-starter in this country.
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  • ICBMICBM Frets: 30902
    crunchman said:

    Because they are willing to accept free movement.   Politically that's a non-starter in this country.
    Is it, and how do you know? That question was not asked either.
    "Take these three items, some WD-40, a vise grip, and a roll of duct tape. Any man worth his salt can fix almost any problem with this stuff alone."
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  • crunchmancrunchman Frets: 3352
    ICBM said:
    crunchman said:

    Because they are willing to accept free movement.   Politically that's a non-starter in this country.
    Is it, and how do you know? That question was not asked either.

    Freedom of movement was the number one issue in the campaign.  It's one thing that even May has got through her head that any deal that involves freedom of movement is a non-starter.
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  • ICBMICBM Frets: 30902
    edited May 22
    crunchman said:

    Freedom of movement was the number one issue in the campaign.
    Was it? According to who?

    Or was it not being subject to "Brussels" on various issues, or "£350 million a week for the NHS", or the inability to deport terrorists due to "EU human rights", or any of the other issues some people thought they were voting for?

    No-one knows. Unless you're going to have an individual referendum on every detail - no that isn't a suggestion...

    What is a suggestion is to let the government and Parliament get on with deciding what sort of deal is best for the country and not allow themselves to be held to ransom by a small, aggressive minority who want everything their own way.
    "Take these three items, some WD-40, a vise grip, and a roll of duct tape. Any man worth his salt can fix almost any problem with this stuff alone."
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  • FretwiredFretwired Frets: 15343
    edited May 22
    ICBM said:
    Fretwired said:

    Technically people voted for a hard Brexit as the question was simple. It did not mention a deal of any kind. 
    No, they voted to leave the EU. They did not vote to leave the single market, or any of the other institutions which we belonged to before we joined the EU (or EEC as it was then).

    This is exactly the point - both our interpretations can be correct because no other question was asked. So for the hard Leavers to claim that anything short of no deal is "defying the will of the people" is a deliberate deceit.

    Which is exactly why the implementation needs to be left to Parliament - considering itself advised by the referendum result - and not a small minority of Tory MPs to dictate to the government.
    If you leave the EU you leave the Single Market. The only way around it is to join EFTA or negotiate with the EU. During the campaign the EU and the Remain campaign made it clear that if the UK left the EU it left the Single Market. This was the core of the Remain argument. It doesn't mean you can't export goods to the EU. Just means there would be tariffs. The EU currently trades with countries all over the world on WTO terms.


    My pump-action drivel gun is smoking hot today!
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  • crunchmancrunchman Frets: 3352
    ICBM said:
    crunchman said:

    Freedom of movement was the number one issue in the campaign.
    Was it? According to who?

    Or was it not being subject to "Brussels" on various issues, or "£350 million a week for the NHS", or the inability to deport terrorists due to "EU human rights", or any of the other issues some people thought they were voting for?

    No-one knows. Unless you're going to have an individual referendum on every detail - no that isn't a suggestion...

    What is a suggestion is to let the government and Parliament get on with deciding what sort of deal is best for the country and not allow themselves to be held to ransom by a small, aggressive minority who want everything their own way.
    If any deal that involved freedom of movement was on the table, the black death UKIP would be back tomorrow.
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  • WhitecatWhitecat Frets: 1566
    Fretwired said:

    If you leave the EU you leave the Single Market. The only way around it is to join EFTA or negotiate with the EU. During the campaign the EU and the Remain campaign made it clear that if the UK left the EU it left the Single Market. This was the core of the Remain argument. It doesn't mean you can't export goods to the EU. Just means there would be tariffs. The EU currently trades with countries all over the world on WTO terms.


    Uhhh, what's the EEA then? That's really the single market. And it's a separate treaty to the EU. And it was not on the ballot paper.
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  • FretwiredFretwired Frets: 15343
    Whitecat said:
    Fretwired said:

    If you leave the EU you leave the Single Market. The only way around it is to join EFTA or negotiate with the EU. During the campaign the EU and the Remain campaign made it clear that if the UK left the EU it left the Single Market. This was the core of the Remain argument. It doesn't mean you can't export goods to the EU. Just means there would be tariffs. The EU currently trades with countries all over the world on WTO terms.


    Uhhh, what's the EEA then? That's really the single market. And it's a separate treaty to the EU. And it was not on the ballot paper.
    The EEA is made up of the members of the EU (which we're leaving) and EFTA. The only route open to the UK would be to join EFTA. Were the UK to negotiate a deal to remain in the EEA then we would effectively be members of the EU without voting rights. Madness.
    My pump-action drivel gun is smoking hot today!
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  • WhitecatWhitecat Frets: 1566
    edited May 22
    Fretwired said:
    Whitecat said:
    Fretwired said:

    If you leave the EU you leave the Single Market. The only way around it is to join EFTA or negotiate with the EU. During the campaign the EU and the Remain campaign made it clear that if the UK left the EU it left the Single Market. This was the core of the Remain argument. It doesn't mean you can't export goods to the EU. Just means there would be tariffs. The EU currently trades with countries all over the world on WTO terms.


    Uhhh, what's the EEA then? That's really the single market. And it's a separate treaty to the EU. And it was not on the ballot paper.
    The EEA is made up of the members of the EU (which we're leaving) and EFTA. The only route open to the UK would be to join EFTA. Were the UK to negotiate a deal to remain in the EEA then we would effectively be members of the EU without voting rights. Madness.
    Yes, EEA is de facto EU membership, but it's still not actually EU membership, it's a separate treaty, and it still could be seen as a "soft" Brexit. I think that's what's gonna happen in the end, and nobody will be happy.
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