Oil will run out in 2052 at current consumption

Wolfetone

As per title but, what about aeroplanes? Aren't we decades away from electric airliners?

Everyone is building new airports and extra runways but what will be flying out of them? 

Bridgehouse

And when the uptake of electric vehicles goes up exponentially, current consumption rate will drop.

TBH tho, the biggest drop in consumption will come when we stop using so many fucking plastics everywhere - like straws and cups and the like. That will sort it.

Roysterdoyster

Don't they reckon that with technology improving that they'll be able to get oil out of the ground that they currently can't get to,which will keep us trucking for longer?

Fretwired

Wolfetone said:

As per title but, what about aeroplanes? Aren't we decades away from electric airliners?

Everyone is building new airports and extra runways but what will be flying out of them? 

We have 200+ years of oil.

Interestedly Rolls Royce (the aero engine company) has filed a patent for an electric jet engine. Make of it what you will.

richardhomer

I was discussing with someone the other day how many Teslas are on the road.  Saw the mentally expensive 4x4 near where I live the other day - and frequently see the Model S on the road. Given their high-end pricing, clearly there are already a fair number of people going electric.

Bridgehouse

Fretwired said:

Wolfetone said:

As per title but, what about aeroplanes? Aren't we decades away from electric airliners?

Everyone is building new airports and extra runways but what will be flying out of them? 

We have 200+ years of oil.

Interestedly Rolls Royce (the aero engine company) has filed a patent for an electric jet engine. Make of it what you will.

Mrs B has one of those she dries her hair with every morning. Well it sounds like it and when I walk past after my shower if she’s a bit liberal with her hand movements then my gentleman’s accessories think they’ve been caught behind a Boeing 

Fretwired

richardhomer said:

I was discussing with someone the other day how many Teslas are on the road.  Saw the mentally expensive 4x4 near where I live the other day - and frequently see the Model S on the road. Given their high-end pricing, clearly there are already a fair number of people going electric.

Tesla are in financial trouble and have laid people off .. the fact that cars seem to catch fire is not being seen as a selling point.

Some of the big manufacturers are looking again at the hydrogen cell.

vale

i'm glad. most people live like pigs re sustainable & ethical behaviour (consumerism & energy wasting).
monster trucks for school runs, throwaway upgrades tech fashions, bitcoin mining energy wastege etc. it's obscene.
it's not our planet to destroy. we are one species among millions & need to fit in far more responsibly.
so bring the power cuts on. since no amount of rational argument seems to get through to the the perpetrators, then i'm all for a crisis. reap what you sow, humanity!

richardhomer

Fretwired said:

richardhomer said:

I was discussing with someone the other day how many Teslas are on the road.  Saw the mentally expensive 4x4 near where I live the other day - and frequently see the Model S on the road. Given their high-end pricing, clearly there are already a fair number of people going electric.

Tesla are in financial trouble and have laid people off .. 

It was that story that prompted the conversation....

martinw

We'll run out of places to put all the shit we've made from it long before we run out of oil.

strtdv

Presumably at some point we'll find a way to turn all our disposable plastics currently in landfill back into oil economically, as well as turn CO2 back into oil.

exocet

richardhomer said:

Fretwired said:

richardhomer said:

I was discussing with someone the other day how many Teslas are on the road.  Saw the mentally expensive 4x4 near where I live the other day - and frequently see the Model S on the road. Given their high-end pricing, clearly there are already a fair number of people going electric.

Tesla are in financial trouble and have laid people off .. 

It was that story that prompted the conversation....

https://goo.gl/images/v5JBQP

Sambostar

Good, it's s bitch to get out of your trousers

notanon

In 2007 I was reading about peak oil. Didn't happen.

Now I would be more concerned about fellow creatures on the planet.

interstellar

Guyana has HUGE oil reserves according to me younger brother who is an "oilman" and is heading down there to organise and supervise one of the first  rigs starting up

darthed1981

We won't run out of oil before we have screwed up the planet enough that it will be the least of our problems if we keep using it at the current rate!

octatonic

Wolfetone said:

As per title but, what about aeroplanes? Aren't we decades away from electric airliners?

Everyone is building new airports and extra runways but what will be flying out of them? 

Source?

ICBM

darthed1981 said:

We won't run out of oil before we have screwed up the planet enough that it will be the least of our problems if we keep using it at the current rate!

This. 

The problem is not that oil will run out. It’s that there’s already too much to safely be burned.

But there are signs that new technology may make that less attractive. If demand for oil as a fuel - currently by far the largest use - falls, then obviously it will last longer for other purposes.

Phil_aka_Pip

vale said:

most people live like pigs re sustainable & ethical behaviour (consumerism & energy wasting).

Pigs root around for things to eat and roll in the mud for fun. To suggest they're not eco-friendly is an insult to them.

crunchman

notanon said:

In 2007 I was reading about peak oil. Didn't happen.

Now I would be more concerned about fellow creatures on the planet.

"Conventional" sources of oil may have peaked, or will do shortly.  It's newer stuff like tar sands and shale gas that has stopped output dropping.

Newer technology is also making it possible to get oil out that was previously thought to be impossible to extract.

The underlying theory is sound.  If you look at individual fields, a lot of them have peaked.  In some cases they are well past their peaks.  Look at the North Sea.  Production is less than 40% of what it was at its peak:

Graph taken from here:

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-northsea-oil/uk-north-sea-oil-output-to-resume-decline-after-brief-respite-idUKKBN1H2142

There are several other major fields where production has fallen a lot as well.  The Cantarell field in Mexico used to produce 2.2 million barrels per day.  It's now only about a quarter of a million.

The real issue is over the health of the big Saudi fields like Ghawar.  As far as I know, they are now pumping water in to keep the pressure up, but if that starts to decline, or they start to get lots of water in the stuff they extract, then it will cause real problems.

The oil they are getting now is harder to extract.  That's why the price of oil is around $70 per barrel not the $25 per barrel it used to be.  As the price goes up, it becomes economical to extract oil from difficult environments, that they would never have bothered with 20 years ago.

At some point the Ghawar field in Saudi Arabia will peak.  When that happens production will fall.

Changing technology, and the move to electric cars (whether battery or fuel cell) will reduce demand.  If Ghawar peaks, oil price rises will accelerate this.  At this point in time, it's likely that fall in demand will be the main driver of the market, rather than limits on production.

As others have said above though, we need to be cutting oil use for other reasons, not just simple economics.  If governments do aggressively pursue low carbon policies, that will mean some of the oil is left in the ground.

jonnyburgo

More people are using vegetable oil to fuel cars, I noticed that a few National trust vehicles are running in recycled veggie oil. It’s not necessarily a new thing though.