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Brexit Prepping

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  • fretmeisterfretmeister Frets: 23906
    When I'm back at a PC rather than my phone I will do it properly but....

    Tokyo confident it can secure better terms from the UK than it did in discussions with EU"

    Better for them = worse for us.
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  • fretmeisterfretmeister Frets: 23906
    (I've done the paragraphs as it pasted as a giant one - and I've removed hyperlinks)

    FT on 8th Feb 2019. Robin Harding & Leo Lewis




    No-deal Brexit risks rise as UK-Japan trade talks stall

     Tokyo confident it can secure better terms from the UK than it did in discussions with EU

     Shinzo Abe, Japan's prime minister, with UK premier Theresa May at Downing Street after bilateral discussions in January FT Robin Harding and Leo Lewis in Tokyo FEBRUARY 8, 2019



    Britain and Japan have made little progress on a new trade deal in the past 18 months, according to officials involved in the talks, with tariffs set to revert to World Trade Organization levels at the end of March unless the UK ratifies a Brexit deal. Japan has agreed to extend existing trade terms for the duration of Britain’s planned transition period with the EU — but this will not apply if the UK fails to strike a deal with Brussels.

     It is now too late for the Japanese Diet to ratify any agreement before Brexit is scheduled to take place on March 29. There is also a wide gap in expectations about a trade accord, which would apply either in the case of no-deal Brexit or at the end of Britain’s planned transition period, which is due to end in December 2020.

     Tokyo is confident that it can secure better terms from the UK than it did in negotiations with the much larger EU, and is not willing to duplicate the existing treaty precisely in either a bilateral deal or in talks for the UK to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership group. 

     “The new agreement is not just a copy-and-paste of the existing treaty,” said one Japanese official briefed on the talks. “The tariffs, rules and quotas need to be negotiated separately.”

     The lack of progress on a future bilateral deal — a goal set out by prime minister Theresa May on a visit to Japan in August 2017 — highlights the UK’s broader struggle to roll over existing EU trade deals, let alone secure anything better.

     This week, Britain’s Department for International Trade briefed 30 business groups on its failure to replicate “most” of the EU’s trade deals with other countries around the world. Participants complained that they would be seriously affected by the failure to conclude agreements with partners as significant as Canada, Turkey and Japan. Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe is keen to help Mrs May, publicly supporting her exit deal with Brussels, and talking up the potential for Britain to join the TPP. Ultimately, Japan could make a political decision to offer more generous terms. 

     But in preliminary talks, Tokyo’s veteran trade negotiators have been under instructions to extract every advantage possible.

    Progress has been particularly slow since many of their UK counterparts have been diverted to work on preparations for a no-deal Brexit.  Businesses desperately need clarity over Brexit Japan and the UK are unable to launch formal talks to replace the existing EU-Japan free trade agreement, which came into force on February 1, until the UK has officially left the EU. They have therefore conducted informal talks to scope out a future deal. But if there is no transition period with Brussels the effects of the EU-Japan deal on Britain will expire too. 

     As a precautionary step, Japan’s customs agency has issued guidance to companies that different tariffs will apply on March 30 depending on whether the UK ratifies a Brexit deal or not.  Among the defensive interests Japan has identified, where the UK has export potential, are cheese, malt, barley and some seafood products — sectors that Tokyo may wish to protect.

    Offensive interests will include faster removal of British tariffs on the car industry. A UK-Japan deal might also include different rules on data transfers and investment protection.  Mr Abe would like Britain to join the 11-member Trans-Pacific Partnership, which also includes Australia, Peru, Malaysia, Vietnam, New Zealand, Chile, Singapore, Canada, Mexico, and Brunei.

    However, that would require the support of all its member nations, and has not been discussed in UK-Japan talks on a post-Brexit deal. The Department for International Trade said: “Our priority is to avoid disruption to businesses as we leave the EU and more DIT staff have been allocated to no-deal planning. “The Japanese prime minister and Theresa May agreed this January both countries would work quickly to establish a new economic partnership between Japan and the UK using the basis of the EPA.” A UK government spokesperson said earlier this week: “In the event of ‘no deal’ we will seek to bring into force bilateral agreements from 29 March or as soon as possible thereafter.” The spokesperson added that the UK was “making good progress on securing deals” and cited agreements with Chile and the Faroe Islands.
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  • 57Deluxe57Deluxe Frets: 7329
    edited February 2019
    There is already a meechanism that will give all the no cliff facers what they want and is the GATT 24 treaty under WTO; essentially a designated free trade/no tariffs trade period for at least 2 years and can be more in certain cases:

    ++

    If the final outcome is a UK-EU free trade agreement in goods — or even a customs union, although that seems to be ruled out now — then the UK and EU will have to notify the agreement to the WTO. 

    Sometimes a free trade agreement cannot be implemented immediately, or part of it may have to be delayed (the agriculture section of the EU-Turkey customs union has been in preparation for decades).

    In that case the two sides notify an interim arrangement to the WTO under GATT Article 24.5(c), which requires this to lead to a final agreement “within a reasonable length of time”:

    (c)      any interim agreement referred to in subparagraphs (a) and (b) shall include a plan and schedule for the formation of such a customs union or of such a free-trade area within a reasonable length of time

    This interim period should normally be up to 10 years although an extension is possible as an exception, according to a modification signed in Marrakesh in 1994 as part of the package of agreements that set up the WTO:


    ++


    seems perfect to me...


    and strange that the BBC has never reported on it...




    <Vintage BOSS Upgrades>
    __________________________________
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  • octatonicoctatonic Frets: 33725
    VimFuego said:
    I keep reading this thread as brexit poppers and thinking, that must be a weird party.
    Bend over and show me your backstop.
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  • fretmeisterfretmeister Frets: 23906
    57Deluxe said:
    There is already a meechanism that will give all the no cliff facers what they want and is the GATT 24 treaty under WTO; essentially a designated free trade/no tariffs trade period for at least 2 years and can be more in certain cases:

    ++

    If the final outcome is a UK-EU free trade agreement in goods — or even a customs union, although that seems to be ruled out now — then the UK and EU will have to notify the agreement to the WTO. 

    Sometimes a free trade agreement cannot be implemented immediately, or part of it may have to be delayed (the agriculture section of the EU-Turkey customs union has been in preparation for decades).

    In that case the two sides notify an interim arrangement to the WTO under GATT Article 24.5(c), which requires this to lead to a final agreement “within a reasonable length of time”:

    (c)      any interim agreement referred to in subparagraphs (a) and (b) shall include a plan and schedule for the formation of such a customs union or of such a free-trade area within a reasonable length of time

    This interim period should normally be up to 10 years although an extension is possible as an exception, according to a modification signed in Marrakesh in 1994 as part of the package of agreements that set up the WTO:


    ++


    seems perfect to me...


    and strange that the BBC has never reported on it...




    The Brexit Broadcasting Corp have no interest in reporting things in full. Even when other news outlets are.
    They didn't even originally quote the "Brexiteers going to hell" thing accurately for a solid day. BBC radio did - but not the website or TV.

    It's a sad day when more information comes from Sky!
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  • hywelghywelg Frets: 4302
    Beats me how you guys have time for all this research and arguing . Go play a guitar or summat....
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  • When I'm back at a PC rather than my phone I will do it properly but....

    " Tokyo confident it can secure better terms from the UK than it did in discussions with EU"

    Better for them = worse for us.
    Thanks for posting the FT article. It's an interesting read, and it kinda makes a bit of a mockery of what was being said by Japan in 2017.

    But saying that, it doesn't necessarily follow that better for them =worse for us. Why? Well it's all about preference scales; the preference scales of the UK and Japan. If they align in mutually beneficial ways, then that is the preferred outcome surely - even in a non-Brexit scenario.

    Like.. for instance.... if Japan wants good quality Sunday roasts (they don't) and we want hot Japanese women (I do) then that could be a mutually beneficial trade.

    But if we both want to export large amounts of seafood to the other, then that could easily be an unworkable trade.

    Bye!

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  • DLMDLM Frets: 2513
    WiresDreamDisasters said: hot Japanese women
    Finally! Something in this thread I can really get behind!
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  • DLM said:
    WiresDreamDisasters said: hot Japanese women
    Finally! Something in this thread I can really get behind!
    I love that joke on several levels.

    Bye!

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  • SchnozzSchnozz Frets: 1926
    edited February 2019
    hywelg said:
    Beats me how you guys have time for all this research and arguing . Go play a guitar or summat....
    Exactly - It's like someone trying to sell his car when all his family are inside shouting "it's doomed", "the electrics will fail", "it's really worth nowt" at the potential buyer and then they're shocked and moan when it doesn't sell.

    So what do you expect you dozy old tossers lol - Stick this guff in the 'politics' section please admin, where a whole 5 people can discuss it further.


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  • fretmeisterfretmeister Frets: 23906
    When I'm back at a PC rather than my phone I will do it properly but....

    " Tokyo confident it can secure better terms from the UK than it did in discussions with EU"

    Better for them = worse for us.
    Thanks for posting the FT article. It's an interesting read, and it kinda makes a bit of a mockery of what was being said by Japan in 2017.

    But saying that, it doesn't necessarily follow that better for them =worse for us. Why? Well it's all about preference scales; the preference scales of the UK and Japan. If they align in mutually beneficial ways, then that is the preferred outcome surely - even in a non-Brexit scenario.

    Like.. for instance.... if Japan wants good quality Sunday roasts (they don't) and we want hot Japanese women (I do) then that could be a mutually beneficial trade.

    But if we both want to export large amounts of seafood to the other, then that could easily be an unworkable trade.
    I agree that it doesn't have to be a zero-sum game, but at the same time the approach suggested in that article will be being used by every country who understands the UK won't be in the club anymore.


    It's not much different on a concept level to buying a new car. Buy it the week before there is a number plate change and you'll do far better when the dealer needs to hit target for the model year then if you wait for the new plate.

    And that has to be offset against the fact that the older plate car will depreciate a little faster in the short term simply because potential used buyers will think it is older. But if you like to keep a car for 5 years or more then it doesn't matter.
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  • fandangofandango Frets: 2204
    Hoof said:
    Are people really stocking up on Frey Bentos pies, Pot Noodles and other shite they wouldn't normally eat? Of course there will be shortages of certain foodstuffs during the transition period but the EU cannot afford not to sell us £3.2bn worth of Dairy and eggs, so deals will be made, and sharpish.

    Some people must be thinking why can't our own farms up their production (grow more, breed more) to feed us. Why do we have to rely on Johnny Foreigner to bail us out all the time? Can't we farm more of our own chickens, and get them laying more eggs. It's not rocket science. It's not that long ago (relatively speaking) that the French illegally banned our beef after the all-clear for BSE. That's fine. Just meant we got to eat more of our fantastically tasting beef, and the frogs had to make do with substandard continental moo-moo meat.
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  • fretmeisterfretmeister Frets: 23906
    fandango said:
    Hoof said:
    Are people really stocking up on Frey Bentos pies, Pot Noodles and other shite they wouldn't normally eat? Of course there will be shortages of certain foodstuffs during the transition period but the EU cannot afford not to sell us £3.2bn worth of Dairy and eggs, so deals will be made, and sharpish.

    Some people must be thinking why can't our own farms up their production (grow more, breed more) to feed us. Why do we have to rely on Johnny Foreigner to bail us out all the time? Can't we farm more of our own chickens, and get them laying more eggs. It's not rocket science. It's not that long ago (relatively speaking) that the French illegally banned our beef after the all-clear for BSE. That's fine. Just meant we got to eat more of our fantastically tasting beef, and the frogs had to make do with substandard continental moo-moo meat.
    Excellent example of gammon based language there.
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  • underdogunderdog Frets: 8334
    fandango said:
    Hoof said:
    Are people really stocking up on Frey Bentos pies, Pot Noodles and other shite they wouldn't normally eat? Of course there will be shortages of certain foodstuffs during the transition period but the EU cannot afford not to sell us £3.2bn worth of Dairy and eggs, so deals will be made, and sharpish.

    Some people must be thinking why can't our own farms up their production (grow more, breed more) to feed us. Why do we have to rely on Johnny Foreigner to bail us out all the time? Can't we farm more of our own chickens, and get them laying more eggs. It's not rocket science. It's not that long ago (relatively speaking) that the French illegally banned our beef after the all-clear for BSE. That's fine. Just meant we got to eat more of our fantastically tasting beef, and the frogs had to make do with substandard continental moo-moo meat.

    Because the UK farmers are too busy getting f**ked over by huge supermarkets and making pennies per unit. 

    UK farmers do not have the infrastructure, equipment or money to produce any more than they do now. 

    Speaking as the son of a farmer.
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  • fretmeisterfretmeister Frets: 23906
    Hope nobody is on long term medication and cannot tolerate changes in the meds or amounts...

    https://goodlawproject.org/press-release-good-law-project-threatens-judicial-review-serious-shortage-protocols/


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  • 57Deluxe57Deluxe Frets: 7329
    edited February 2019
    So Channel 4 News desperate to pin Honda closure totally on Brexit tip up and ask employees for their reaction.

    Seems to me that if more Honda employees bought and actually drove a Honda rather than a bicycle then the company might have been in a better financial position...


    <Vintage BOSS Upgrades>
    __________________________________
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  • fretmeisterfretmeister Frets: 23906
    TBF the govt and leavers are selectively quoting from Honda - claiming that it had nothing to do with Brexit, while ignoring the actual content of their various press releases saying that uncertainties linked to Brexit were a factor in the decision.

    It's almost like some people don't realise that the 1 thing that all businesses hate is uncertainty. Even a shit certain market is better and easier to deal with than an uncertain maybe good maybe bad one.
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  • Hope nobody is on long term medication and cannot tolerate changes in the meds or amounts...

    https://goodlawproject.org/press-release-good-law-project-threatens-judicial-review-serious-shortage-protocols/


    This is my #1 concern right now - three members of my family are on long-term medication, and in all three cases the dosage is very specific and required for their continued existence (two of them are transplant recipients). Even losing a week or two of medication would be enough to significantly shorten their life expectancy.

    If they fuck this up, people will die - given that there are some 50,000 transplant recipients currently living in the UK, that's a hell of a lot of consequences that very few people seem to be talking about.
    <space for hire>
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  • ThorpyFXThorpyFX Frets: 6090
    tFB Trader
    of course this has to do with Brexit. It also has to do with the EU/JAPAN trade deal. so free trade between EU and JAPAN. means they no longer have to have factories in europe to save money. On top of that if a car is made in the UK and attracts tariffs it would be more expensive to sell into europe..... hence brexit is undesirable for Honda and probably the final nail in the coffin. This is going to be devastating for swindon and the surrounding area.
    Adrian Thorpe MBE | Owner of ThorpyFx Ltd | Email: thorpy@thorpyfx.com | Twitter: @ThorpyFx | Facebook: ThorpyFx Ltd | Website: www.thorpyfx.com
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