Will real amps devalue more if the 'next generation' of modelling gear sounds closer?

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guitarfishbayguitarfishbay Frets: 7953
edited April 2014 in Amps
How long is a piece of string, I know...

But it is something I've thought about.  I thought about putting this in the FX section but if anything I think FX might do ok for a long while yet just given how cheap and modular building an FX setup can be vs an amp rig.

I'm just wondering at what point going for a digital setup starts to be the norm for the average guitarist, and what impact that will have on traditional gear.  I'm not talking about people who play massive shows and have their own sound engineers, or producers who make their living out of recording bands.  I'm talking about regular guitarists who play in amateur - semi pro bands, or those who maybe have an interest in recording at an amateur level.

Lets imagine the next round of Line 6/Boss/Digitech/Zoom gear sounds about as good as an Axe FX/Kemper but for budget/mid range prices - I don't expect this but lets work with that scenario.  At that point, would you still lust after a high priced valve amp/cab rig given the cost, size, and weight of such a rig?  Lets assume the unit is easy to use - would you still see yourself wanting to learn how to mic an amp if you can get results as good without needing to invest the time/money to learn how to do so?

Will this eventually de-value traditional amps?  An interesting thing to consider - will it devalue some amps more than others?  I've often thought that less versatile and non collectable amps will be affected most - e.g. mid range high gain amps with poor clean channels.  But then again I could imagine all high end amps being devalued if a highly featured modeller could cop the tone plus more.  I guess this could already be measured by surveying the 'high end' amp users who would now tend to use an Axe/Kemper instead of more traditional expensive setups.

Any thoughts?
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Comments

  • JalapenoJalapeno Frets: 6378
    Not at current prices.

    And certainly not with current modelling pfaff levels.
    Imagine something sharp and witty here ......

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  • Depends which amps I think. Common or garden Marshall, Blackstar, etc, maybe.

    High end stuff probably not.

    The analagy might be record turntables - utility stuff became worthless but high end audiophile stuff is as expensive and in demand as ever...
    Link to my trading feedback: http://thefretboard.co.uk/discussion/58787/
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  • digitalscreamdigitalscream Frets: 26453
    There's a certain class of guitarist for whom it doesn't matter if digital gear puts out exactly the same sound at exactly the same levels as a valve amp - they simply won't buy one.

    At the other end, there's a class of guitarist for whom digital gear is already better than most non-digital gear in the price bracket - think about the < £250 end. There are obvious exceptions - Jet City amps being one of them - but by and large digital gear in that range is more portable, more flexible and sounds better than a lot of the solid state and valve options.

    I'd expect that to continue as the gear gets better; if Zoom fulfil their potential and bring out a pro-level unit with the modelling from the G3/G5, or perhaps a generation on from that, then it'll eat Line6's lunch and things will get very interesting. The problem with Line6 is that they really aren't doing much in the way of support or development; since they've been the dominant player at that end of the market, the whole thing's stagnated.

    Given that you can now get an Eleven Rack second hand for about £350 and 6 years on it's still better than anything Line6 have come up with, I think things are due for a shake up. It probably won't come in the next generation of tech, but the one after that? You might get your wish.
    <space for hire>
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  • ICBMICBM Frets: 71957
    Depends which amps I think. Common or garden Marshall, Blackstar, etc, maybe.

    High end stuff probably not.

    The analagy might be record turntables - utility stuff became worthless but high end audiophile stuff is as expensive and in demand as ever...
    Exactly.

    I doubt it will have any impact on vintage and boutique amps. They will always be desirable to collectors, wealthier home players and recording musicians.

    It will probably have a serious impact on modern 'Swiss Army Knife' valve amps though - ie channel switchers which do many things quite well, but none outstandingly. In my opinion they're a bit of an 'evolutionary dead end' already. I could see that sort of valve amp - especially at the more 'consumer' end of the price range - disappearing in not very much more than the next few years.

    And yes, I do use a valve channel switcher! Although I like to think it does sound so good that it's a classic in its own right anyway. (And many famous artists agree.)

    Cameras are another good analogy. High-end and vintage film cameras are still used by artists and enthusiasts, but consumer film cameras are effectively extinct. The changeover happened so rapidly that it even caught a huge corporation like Kodak off guard.

    "Take these three items, some WD-40, a vise grip, and a roll of duct tape. Any man worth his salt can fix almost any problem with this stuff alone." - Walt Kowalski

    "Just because I don't care, doesn't mean I don't understand." - Homer Simpson

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  • noisepolluternoisepolluter Frets: 789
    edited April 2014
    Jalapeno said:

    And certainly not with current modelling pfaff levels.
    I was about to make a similar point. 

    For instance, the digital model of a simple 1x12, single channel, non master volume amp should ideally be as easy (and predictable) to dial in as the original amp. 

    I'm not expecting it to sound identical, but if you have to go delving into sub-menus to tweak the presence/mid sweep/simulated rectifier sag etc for each different situation you're playing in, then it's just a damned headache.

     
    Further edit: I'm probably really not the target market for digital modellers anyway, as I basically have one sound (well, three if you count tremolo and slapback…)

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  • I just like amps I like the sound of, don't care if theyre modelled on a classic marshall/ fender, currently my main amp is a laney vc30, but I rehearse with a peavey bandit and a laney cub12  all of which im happy to gig with. im 52 so these may or may see out my playing days, if not I dont mind replacing them with a solid state or digital. when the time comes I will try them out and buy what I like best and can afford. tbh I cant tell all these subtleties I hear about or people demoing stuff on youtube..

    my only bugbear is overcomplicated controls and submenus etc, give me a simple volume, gain and tone and im happy. I watch the technology with interest but really I should practise more.

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  • PyromanPyroman Frets: 58
    ICBM said:
    Depends which amps I think. Common or garden Marshall, Blackstar, etc, maybe.

    High end stuff probably not.

    The analagy might be record turntables - utility stuff became worthless but high end audiophile stuff is as expensive and in demand as ever...
    Exactly.

    I doubt it will have any impact on vintage and boutique amps. They will always be desirable to collectors, wealthier home players and recording musicians.

    It will probably have a serious impact on modern 'Swiss Army Knife' valve amps though - ie channel switchers which do many things quite well, but none outstandingly. In my opinion they're a bit of an 'evolutionary dead end' already. I could see that sort of valve amp - especially at the more 'consumer' end of the price range - disappearing in not very much more than the next few years.

    And yes, I do use a valve channel switcher! Although I like to think it does sound so good that it's a classic in its own right anyway. (And many famous artists agree.)

    Cameras are another good analogy. High-end and vintage film cameras are still used by artists and enthusiasts, but consumer film cameras are effectively extinct. The changeover happened so rapidly that it even caught a huge corporation like Kodak off guard.
      The sad part is, Kodak was one of the companies who pioneered digital imaging...  Talk about torpedoing your own product line.
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  • ICBMICBM Frets: 71957
    Pyroman said:

    The sad part is, Kodak was one of the companies who pioneered digital imaging...  Talk about torpedoing your own product line.
    Yes. You would have thought they would have understood the implications, although I suspect the development of the digital tech wasn't done at 'full senior management' level, if you see what I mean!

    Or they simply underestimated the speed it would change - which demand for technology does, once it reaches the tipping point. Where are CRT monitors now either? Little more than ten years ago graphics pros wouldn't use anything else.

    I've said this before, but I can see the same happening with valves - not for a certainty, but if it does happen it could be fast. Maybe to the point that it becomes a domino effect, once valve production falls and they get more expensive.

    "We're all doomed... doomed I tell you!"

    "Take these three items, some WD-40, a vise grip, and a roll of duct tape. Any man worth his salt can fix almost any problem with this stuff alone." - Walt Kowalski

    "Just because I don't care, doesn't mean I don't understand." - Homer Simpson

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  • ThePrettyDamnedThePrettyDamned Frets: 7472
    edited April 2014
    ICBM said:
    Pyroman said:

    The sad part is, Kodak was one of the companies who pioneered digital imaging...  Talk about torpedoing your own product line.
    Yes. You would have thought they would have understood the implications, although I suspect the development of the digital tech wasn't done at 'full senior management' level, if you see what I mean!

    Or they simply underestimated the speed it would change - which demand for technology does, once it reaches the tipping point. Where are CRT monitors now either? Little more than ten years ago graphics pros wouldn't use anything else.

    I've said this before, but I can see the same happening with valves - not for a certainty, but if it does happen it could be fast. Maybe to the point that it becomes a domino effect, once valve production falls and they get more expensive.

    "We're all doomed... doomed I tell you!"
    I would like for a solid state 6505 to exist.  The AMT preamp pedal is supposed to be amazingly close to the real deal, so at the very least they could hybridise the amp...

    Besides, the Marshall MOSFET Lead 100 is really nice.  Can't believe I didn't buy one when I could :(

    To answer the question, I reckon, at the very least, valve amps will be around just to satisfy the 'elite'.  Of course, until digital modelling is super easy and mega amazing, that won't happen.  

    But it probably will.
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  • LewLew Frets: 1657
    @ThePrettyDamned I know where one is if you want info.

    I don't really care about the axefx and think that's the same for most players. If I got given one I would no doubt enjoy playing around with it but I wouldn't buy one.
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  • Lew;225537" said:
    @ThePrettyDamned I know where one is if you want info.

    I don't really care about the axefx and think that's the same for most players. If I got given one I would no doubt enjoy playing around with it but I wouldn't buy one.
    I've decided to save for a valve amp. Probably.

    Maybe.

    I genuinely don't want to spend anything until I've been around Europe in the summer, but if I saw one cheap, I'd get it and put it through a hb cab.

    I'm the same - it's too much arsing about, I don't mind tinkering (it took me ages to be proper happy with my Duncan power grid pedal) but that's balancing a few knobs, not menus and settings.

    But if you can persevere, I've no doubt it's worth it. I'm still trying to work out how to use a cab sim ir thing on ableton!
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  • LewLew Frets: 1657
    I'd rather be down the pub than building presets.
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  • dindudedindude Frets: 8534
    Until modelling stops being top end (axe-fx) or toy-like (everyone else), with nothing in the middle ground, valve amps are safe I reckon.
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  • ClarkyClarky Frets: 3261
    edited April 2014
    Jalapeno said:
    Not at current prices.

    And certainly not with current modelling pfaff levels.
    there's not really any pfaff
    in the studio right now I'm recording a bunch of riffing guitar parts…
    some of the parts are hi-gain, others more on the crunchy side
    now I'm thinking what amps and cabs would work best..
    so far I've tried
    Diezel VH4
    Diezel Herbert
    Peavy 5150 mkIII
    Mesa Boogie mkIIC
    Marshall JCM800
    Marshall AFD100
    Marshall Sivler Jubilee
    Marshall Plexi 50
    Engl Savage
    Carol Anne Trip Tik
    65 Bassman

    through Marshall 4x12 AX, TV, 1960A, 1960B, Engl Pro 4x12, Mesa Boogie 4x12

    I reckon the bigger pfaff would have been mic'ing and reamping through the various permutations of these amps and cabs in the real rather than the modelled world..
    so the way I see it, my lil' tonal R'n'D mission was all rather easy..
    didn't take long..
    and was a lot of fun
    play every note as if it were your first
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  • ClarkyClarky Frets: 3261
    the killer thing with the better modelling units is that you can record with them very easily with the sort of quality that you could only get via mic's in a very very good studio type environment with very good mic's [and with someone really knowing what they're doing]
    play every note as if it were your first
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  • thecolourboxthecolourbox Frets: 9654
    But if you'd had one maybe two of those amps in the room instead, you would have made them sound good for what you were doing rather thinking...i wonder how that might sound through a diesel Herbert.

    Don't have to eat all the sweets in the shop if you're happy with fizzy cola bottles. But all modelling options tempt you with that and there will always be a market for people that just want one amp (or fizzy cola bottles)
    Please note my communication is not very good, so please be patient with me
    soundcloud.com/thecolourbox-1
    youtube.com/@TheColourboxMusic
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  • EvilmagsEvilmags Frets: 5158
    The advantage of the Axe FX is really touring as well. If you think of the costs of carrying around a load of amps and cabs, as well as somebody to service them, or the invariable crappy hire amp (80s Fender Twin in shit state is fairly normal), then the ability to basically put all your sound in one bag and go straight into the desk with no risk of shite sound is very valuable. It also makes smaller tours more financially viable.  
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  • digitalscreamdigitalscream Frets: 26453
    edited April 2014
    Evilmags said:
    The advantage of the Axe FX is really touring as well. If you think of the costs of carrying around a load of amps and cabs, as well as somebody to service them, or the invariable crappy hire amp (80s Fender Twin in shit state is fairly normal), then the ability to basically put all your sound in one bag and go straight into the desk with no risk of shite sound is very valuable. It also makes smaller tours more financially viable.  
    It's even more practical when you consider that with units like the Kemper (and I believe the AxeFX II can do it too), you can load all your presets directly from a USB memory stick. Your touring rig can literally be your guitars and a memory stick, and that's it - just hire the modeller and the PA at the venue, rather than carting it round on a plane. It'll cut tour costs massively, and maybe even make it possible to visit places on tour which would ordinarily be out of contention.
    <space for hire>
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  • monquixotemonquixote Frets: 17485
    tFB Trader
    Valve amps will eventually move to the same status as vinyl records, horses and (soon) petrol cars. 

    They will no longer be the obvious, best bang for buck, most convenient option, but people who love them for what they are will continue to use them indefinitely. 

    As ICBM points out the days of the mega multi channel valve amp might be numbered. I think many of the people who are buying AxeFX were probably the people Mesa were hoping would buy a MKV.

    The limiting factor for widespread acceptance isn't price, or sound quality it's usability. I was lucky enough to spend some time with an AxeFX at the guitar show and in all honesty the thing repelled me. I work as a software developer at an audio technology company so it's not that I couldn't program one if I wanted to (I could probably design one given the time and inclination) and yes it probably sounds as good as any given valve amp, but I just don't want to get involved with something with all those buttons on the front. 

    When it comes down to it I don't really care about 100 parameters I just want an amp with a volume knob on it (and nothing else) that sounds good. I don't want 500 variations of the same sound, ultimately I'll still sound like me anyway and I don't really give a shit if I'm playing a Twin Reverb or a Pro Reverb as long as it sounds like a vaguely spanky clean amp. 

    I think it's the paradox of choice thing. If you just give me "clean", "gritty", "facemelter" I'll be much happier than if you let me see all the crap under the hood. 

    It's like those stupid rally edition cars that they have on Top Gear with 5 suspension settings, 3 engine maps, 4 traction control modes, and 6 diff settings. In reality wouldn't you rather just have a car that was just fast when you put your foot down and economical when you didn't.

    I appreciate for studio bods and those that get enjoyment from tinkering the story is very different, but for someone who needs the most basic clean amp and a couple of OD pedals it's stripping the features down that would make me go digital.
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  • digitalscreamdigitalscream Frets: 26453
    I think it's the paradox of choice thing. If you just give me "clean", "gritty", "facemelter" I'll be much happier than if you let me see all the crap under the hood. 

    That's where Line6 went with the DT25/DT50 (OK, so it's only a modelling preamp into a valve power amp, but you see where I'm going). Rocktron did something similar with the Utopia (not trying to model existing amps, just making great-sounding models of their own) and then of course there's the Blackstar ID series. While the ID isn't that great IMO, it does strike a nice balance of usability, while still allowing (somewhat) deep-editing should you so desire.
    <space for hire>
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