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  • HeartfeltdawnHeartfeltdawn Frets: 11245
    edited July 10
    As I've said before:

    http://www.thefretboard.co.uk/discussion/comment/809811/#Comment_809811

    2014   3 winners
    2015   3 winners
    2016   4 winners
    2017   5 winners
    2018   4 winners so far

    So an average of 3.8 different winners per season. 2014 to 2017 is 3.75. 

    1982 to 2013 was 5.44. 2003 to 2013 (Red Bull dominance and the current point scoring system) = 5.45. 

    1988 (McLaren dominance) had 3 winners, Ferrari dominance in 2001 and 2002 had five and four winners respectively. 

    Going with the number of drivers who scored podiums: I shall focus on 2003-2013.

    Number of drivers who scored podium positions: 

    2003           10
    2004           9
    2005           13
    2006            12
    2007            8
    2008            13
    2009            13
    2010            8
    2011             7
    2012            12
    2013            8

    113/11 = 10.27

    2014            10
    2015            10
    2016             9
    2017             7
    2018*           7

    =8.6 over all these years, 2014-2017 = 9

    I use 1988 as my yardstick for one team domination (Senna and Prost in the McLaren Honda) = 10 drivers ended on the podium. For those curious about the mad 1982 season with 11 winners, you had 18 different drivers on the podium in 16 races. 

    No real waffle to add, just curious about numbers  it feeds the dormant autistic side of me. 
    Clarity over quantity.  
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  • stickyfiddlestickyfiddle Frets: 9348
    I'm an analyst who's had a slow work week so have done more numbers....

    # drivers & teams winning, per year, since 1980: 


    Not much to speak of here. Small reduction, but if you take away the hybrid era there is only a very slight downward trend - we've regularly had seasons with only 4 driver and 2 or 3 teams since the mid-1990s and that's natural in any season where there are only 2 or 3 cars capable of winning.  

    # drivers & teams getting podiums, per year, since 1980: 



    This looks a bit worse. We've had the odd shit season since the early 90's, but there's definitely a downward trend. Likewise with teams, because with increased reliability your top 2 or 3 team are sharing the podiums places far more often. 


    But you also have to consider the number of races. In 1980 there were only 14 races meaning a total of 42 podium spots available in a season. These days we have north of 60 podium places per year. So let's divide by the # of races...

    # drivers and teams on podium, per year, since 1980 - normalised by # of races



    A bit steeper decline now but it looks like we're already at the lower limit in terms of the team figures, and at least now we're well above the lowest points of 2014/2015.

    But then you have the podium figures, and everything is much worse: 



    Clearly there is a massive decline in # team AND drivers reaching the podium over a season. You still have the odd batshit season like 2012, but generally it's pretty shitty. I really think this is the major factor they can try and change with the new regs - and particuarly the cost-cutting stuff, which will hopefully allow the midfield to get closer to the frontrunners, giving more opportunities to capitalise when there's an outside factor (safety car, rain, etc) that affects the race.
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  • HeartfeltdawnHeartfeltdawn Frets: 11245
    That's really interesting seeing it plotted out like that, particularly taking into account the increased number of races. 


    Clarity over quantity.  
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  • stickyfiddlestickyfiddle Frets: 9348
    That's really interesting seeing it plotted out like that, particularly taking into account the increased number of races. 


    Yeah, I thought so. I didn't know for sure how it would look so glad my hunch was right! 

    You could argue that the higher number of drivers & teams in the past would also make it harder for any single driver or team to get a win/podium, but I think given the "extra" teams were generally backmarkers I haven't looked at the impact of that at all. 

    What I do know is I'd love to see what sort of analysis Liberty are doing - I bet Brawn & Symonds have got immense quantities of data at their disposal AND the brains to know when useful conclusions can be drawn
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  • sinbaadisinbaadi Frets: 819
    Someone made an analogy to football earlier, which is fair except it would have to be robot football.  No dips in form, either it works or it does not, and whoever created the best team of football robots would win the championship.

    The drivers are machine operators.  Talented, yes, but they are mostly all capable of putting any of those cars in the grid position of which it is capable compared with the others.

    You are only seeing the difference between driver a and driver b in any team.

    Keep the reliability and in my opinion, kill the technical performance disparity.  It's the only way for there to be good racing, consistently, in formula one.
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  • HeartfeltdawnHeartfeltdawn Frets: 11245
    @sinbaadi "Kill the technical performance disparity" - so would you go for something equivalent to Balance of Performance in WEC? 
    Clarity over quantity.  
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  • GarthyGarthy Frets: 1735
    What’s the trend like without 1982 which is clearly an anomaly?
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  • sinbaadisinbaadi Frets: 819
    @sinbaadi "Kill the technical performance disparity" - so would you go for something equivalent to Balance of Performance in WEC? 
    No I'd use spec parts or even a claiming rule with a budget cap so it simply wasn't worth the investment in development to find the final few tenths.  I'd prefer the former because, like any performance adjuster, you encourage tactical sandbagging which is farcical.  

    As interesting as it might occasionally be to see the new cars for the new season and analyse the differences, I don't give a toss about that stuff on a Sunday afternoon.
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  • stickyfiddlestickyfiddle Frets: 9348
    edited July 12
    Garthy said:
    What’s the trend like without 1982 which is clearly an anomaly?
    All shift down slightly but the gradients hardly change. '82 was certainly an anomaly in terms of drivers on the podium, but actually not for number of driver winners (8 - same as '83 and '85), or for teams (81, 83 also had 6 winning teams, and 89 had 10 teams reaching the podium, with 81, 97 and even 2008 having 9 teams doing the same).

    TBH 82 was really only exceptional for driver stats because 3 of the top guys all stopped during the season - Villeneuve & Pironi died, and Carlos Reutemann retired to go rallying - it's possible that all of these may have taken more wins & podiums from the other guys had they all raced right through the season - certainly Tambay at the very least, as he took Villeneuve's slot at Ferrari.




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  • GarthyGarthy Frets: 1735
    There were also boycotts too.
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  • ColsCols Frets: 267
    As far back as I can remember, every year there has been a dominant team that gets most of the wins, a challenger team that may give them a hard time and a third team that might snag the occasional win or two.  The exceptions are 1988 (Prost v Senna) and 2014-2016 (the Lewis and Nico Show).  It’s always the way of it.

    What’s changed over the past 10-15 years is that reliability has become so fantastic that the probability of another team getting onto the podium as a result of mechanical failure in one of the Big Three has become increasingly small.

    Teams are spending a fantastic amount of effort to ensure cast-iron reliability these days.  Engine or transmission failure carries a disproportionate penalty; not only are you out of the race, but you’ll most likely get a grid penalty in a subsequent race.

    Sports thrive on unpredictability; only Schumacher-era masochists are happy tuning in every race to see the same old faces on the podium.  The current regulatory climate basically ensures predictability.  Stable and constrictive regulation limits any kind of innovation, engine development is frozen and pushing the envelope at the expense of reliability will find you at the back of the grid for the next race.  The only real unpredictability left is the weather and drivers having accidents.
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  • ColsCols Frets: 267
    edited July 19
    Hamilton’s signed for another two years at Mercedes, on a base salary of £30 million with up to £10 million more in bonuses.

    https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN1K91AW

    Strange that they didn’t announce Bottas at the same time?
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  • not_the_djnot_the_dj Frets: 5576
    Cols said:


    Strange that they didn’t announce Bottas at the same time?
    They have today...one year contract with an option for 2020.
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  • FretwiredFretwired Frets: 16624
    Cols said:
    Hamilton’s signed for another two years at Mercedes, on a base salary of £30 million with up to £10 million more in bonuses.

    https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN1K91AW


    Hamilton turned down an offer from another team. I wonder which one .....
    My pump-action drivel gun is smoking hot today!
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  • ColsCols Frets: 267
    Fretwired said:
    Cols said:
    Hamilton’s signed for another two years at Mercedes, on a base salary of £30 million with up to £10 million more in bonuses.

    https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN1K91AW


    Hamilton turned down an offer from another team. I wonder which one .....
    McLaren, as rumour has it.
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  • FretwiredFretwired Frets: 16624
    Cols said:
    Fretwired said:
    Cols said:
    Hamilton’s signed for another two years at Mercedes, on a base salary of £30 million with up to £10 million more in bonuses.

    https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN1K91AW


    Hamilton turned down an offer from another team. I wonder which one .....
    McLaren, as rumour has it.
    Speculative at best I'd say ... the only place Hamilton would go would be Ferrari but that won't happen while Vettel is number one.
    My pump-action drivel gun is smoking hot today!
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  • ColsCols Frets: 267
    Little change at the front then; Ricciardo will re-sign for Red Bull as Ferrari have lost interest and McLaren are going nowhere.  The only question mark is over the second Ferrari seat, and it seems increasingly likely that LeClerc will get the nod for this.

    Raikkonen still wants to continue though, and has apparently been lobbying to switch to Sauber next season.

    Further down the grid, Sainz’s contract apparently leaves him a free agent if Red Bull don’t offer him a seat at the senior team.  McLaren are keen to sign him if he becomes available, at the expense of Vandoorne.

    Stroll seems to be fed up with Williams and is planning to take his millions to Force India next year.  This would leave Williams in financial trouble, as they’re also losing Martini sponsorship at the end of the year and there’s no replacement in sight.
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  • FretwiredFretwired Frets: 16624
    edited July 20
    Cols said:
    Little change at the front then; Ricciardo will re-sign for Red Bull as Ferrari have lost interest and McLaren are going nowhere.  The only question mark is over the second Ferrari seat, and it seems increasingly likely that LeClerc will get the nod for this.

    Raikkonen still wants to continue though, and has apparently been lobbying to switch to Sauber next season.

    Further down the grid, Sainz’s contract apparently leaves him a free agent if Red Bull don’t offer him a seat at the senior team.  McLaren are keen to sign him if he becomes available, at the expense of Vandoorne.

    Stroll seems to be fed up with Williams and is planning to take his millions to Force India next year.  This would leave Williams in financial trouble, as they’re also losing Martini sponsorship at the end of the year and there’s no replacement in sight.
    I'd read Ferrari will most likely keep Raikkonen for another year as Vettel thinks he's an excellent number two and the team is stable.
    My pump-action drivel gun is smoking hot today!
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  • ColsCols Frets: 267
    Fretwired said:
    Cols said:
    Little change at the front then; Ricciardo will re-sign for Red Bull as Ferrari have lost interest and McLaren are going nowhere.  The only question mark is over the second Ferrari seat, and it seems increasingly likely that LeClerc will get the nod for this.

    Raikkonen still wants to continue though, and has apparently been lobbying to switch to Sauber next season.

    Further down the grid, Sainz’s contract apparently leaves him a free agent if Red Bull don’t offer him a seat at the senior team.  McLaren are keen to sign him if he becomes available, at the expense of Vandoorne.

    Stroll seems to be fed up with Williams and is planning to take his millions to Force India next year.  This would leave Williams in financial trouble, as they’re also losing Martini sponsorship at the end of the year and there’s no replacement in sight.
    I'd read Ferrari will most likely keep Raikkonen for another year as Vettel things he's an excellent number two and the team is stable.
    Certainly Vettel seems to be lobbying fiercely for Kimi to stay... for obvious reasons.  In that case LeClerc might have another development year in Haas.
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  • ColsCols Frets: 267
    Fretwired said:
    Cols said:
    Fretwired said:
    Hamilton turned down an offer from another team. I wonder which one .....
    McLaren, as rumour has it.
    Speculative at best I'd say ... the only place Hamilton would go would be Ferrari but that won't happen while Vettel is number one.
    "In terms of the other guys approaching, one did but I didn't give it any time," Hamilton said.

    Mclaren would fit the bill; they’re on the hunt for a top line driver in case Alonso quits, and the team shareholders have deep enough pockets to afford Hamilton.  Unfortunately they don’t have a competitive package to offer him.
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  • stickyfiddlestickyfiddle Frets: 9348
    There's also talk of Kubica talking to Haas. I'd really like to see that haappen. Another year at Sauber wouldn't hurt LeClerc at all. 

    McLaren are probably talking to every driver without a contract for next year. They're in enough shit already but if Alonso goes they're in deep shit. 
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  • sinbaadisinbaadi Frets: 819
    Whoever is at Haas next year will be hoping LeClerc start right where he is.
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  • stickyfiddlestickyfiddle Frets: 9348
    sinbaadi said:
    Whoever is at Haas next year will be hoping LeClerc start right where he is.
    I don’t know; I reckon K-Mag would be bullish with any team mate. 

    LeClerc is clearly a talent, but he’s only up against Ericsson, who isn’t exactly Fernando, whether down to height/weight disadvantage or general crapness.
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  • FretwiredFretwired Frets: 16624
    Has Hamilton cracked? Anyone read his four page Instagram post? He's not in a good place ...
    My pump-action drivel gun is smoking hot today!
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  • stickyfiddlestickyfiddle Frets: 9348
    Fretwired said:
    Has Hamilton cracked? Anyone read his four page Instagram post? He's not in a good place ...
    I thought it was a pretty measured response from a guy who is behind in the championship and had a shit qualifying through no fault of his own. 

    I'm looking forward to him and DannyRic carving through the field today. 50% chance of rain too?
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  • FretwiredFretwired Frets: 16624
    Fretwired said:
    Has Hamilton cracked? Anyone read his four page Instagram post? He's not in a good place ...
    I thought it was a pretty measured response from a guy who is behind in the championship and had a shit qualifying through no fault of his own. 

    I'm looking forward to him and DannyRic carving through the field today. 50% chance of rain too?
    Hamilton's car breakdown was his fault .. riding the kerbs. Toto didn't look happy and contradicted Hamilton in his interview on Sky.
    My pump-action drivel gun is smoking hot today!
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  • HeartfeltdawnHeartfeltdawn Frets: 11245
    Fretwired said:
    Has Hamilton cracked? Anyone read his four page Instagram post? He's not in a good place ...
    If the stewards take his victory away today, Instagram's going to be on fire. 
    Clarity over quantity.  
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  • ColsCols Frets: 267
    Well, for such an unpredictable race that was pretty dull.
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  • FretwiredFretwired Frets: 16624
    edited July 22
    Fretwired said:
    Has Hamilton cracked? Anyone read his four page Instagram post? He's not in a good place ...
    If the stewards take his victory away today, Instagram's going to be on fire. 
    Calling Ferrari International Assistance .... pretty dumb call by Mercedes as they could have let Hamilton trundle down the pit lane and he'd have still been in the lead. He'll get a penalty .. Kimi had one for doing something similar. Mercedes should have got Bottas to slow down to cover a 5 second penalty ... Hamilton beat him by 4.5 seconds.
    My pump-action drivel gun is smoking hot today!
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