The F1 thread

What's Hot
1210211212213214216»

Comments

  • HeartfeltdawnHeartfeltdawn Frets: 10896
    edited July 10
    As I've said before:

    http://www.thefretboard.co.uk/discussion/comment/809811/#Comment_809811

    2014   3 winners
    2015   3 winners
    2016   4 winners
    2017   5 winners
    2018   4 winners so far

    So an average of 3.8 different winners per season. 2014 to 2017 is 3.75. 

    1982 to 2013 was 5.44. 2003 to 2013 (Red Bull dominance and the current point scoring system) = 5.45. 

    1988 (McLaren dominance) had 3 winners, Ferrari dominance in 2001 and 2002 had five and four winners respectively. 

    Going with the number of drivers who scored podiums: I shall focus on 2003-2013.

    Number of drivers who scored podium positions: 

    2003           10
    2004           9
    2005           13
    2006            12
    2007            8
    2008            13
    2009            13
    2010            8
    2011             7
    2012            12
    2013            8

    113/11 = 10.27

    2014            10
    2015            10
    2016             9
    2017             7
    2018*           7

    =8.6 over all these years, 2014-2017 = 9

    I use 1988 as my yardstick for one team domination (Senna and Prost in the McLaren Honda) = 10 drivers ended on the podium. For those curious about the mad 1982 season with 11 winners, you had 18 different drivers on the podium in 16 races. 

    No real waffle to add, just curious about numbers  it feeds the dormant autistic side of me. 
    I make Jeremy Paxman look like Fingermouse. 
    0reaction image LOL 0reaction image Wow! 0reaction image Wisdom · Share on Facebook Share on Twitter
  • stickyfiddlestickyfiddle Frets: 9049
    I'm an analyst who's had a slow work week so have done more numbers....

    # drivers & teams winning, per year, since 1980: 


    Not much to speak of here. Small reduction, but if you take away the hybrid era there is only a very slight downward trend - we've regularly had seasons with only 4 driver and 2 or 3 teams since the mid-1990s and that's natural in any season where there are only 2 or 3 cars capable of winning.  

    # drivers & teams getting podiums, per year, since 1980: 



    This looks a bit worse. We've had the odd shit season since the early 90's, but there's definitely a downward trend. Likewise with teams, because with increased reliability your top 2 or 3 team are sharing the podiums places far more often. 


    But you also have to consider the number of races. In 1980 there were only 14 races meaning a total of 42 podium spots available in a season. These days we have north of 60 podium places per year. So let's divide by the # of races...

    # drivers and teams on podium, per year, since 1980 - normalised by # of races



    A bit steeper decline now but it looks like we're already at the lower limit in terms of the team figures, and at least now we're well above the lowest points of 2014/2015.

    But then you have the podium figures, and everything is much worse: 



    Clearly there is a massive decline in # team AND drivers reaching the podium over a season. You still have the odd batshit season like 2012, but generally it's pretty shitty. I really think this is the major factor they can try and change with the new regs - and particuarly the cost-cutting stuff, which will hopefully allow the midfield to get closer to the frontrunners, giving more opportunities to capitalise when there's an outside factor (safety car, rain, etc) that affects the race.
    0reaction image LOL 1reaction image Wow! 2reaction image Wisdom · Share on Facebook Share on Twitter
  • HeartfeltdawnHeartfeltdawn Frets: 10896
    That's really interesting seeing it plotted out like that, particularly taking into account the increased number of races. 


    I make Jeremy Paxman look like Fingermouse. 
    0reaction image LOL 0reaction image Wow! 0reaction image Wisdom · Share on Facebook Share on Twitter
  • stickyfiddlestickyfiddle Frets: 9049
    That's really interesting seeing it plotted out like that, particularly taking into account the increased number of races. 


    Yeah, I thought so. I didn't know for sure how it would look so glad my hunch was right! 

    You could argue that the higher number of drivers & teams in the past would also make it harder for any single driver or team to get a win/podium, but I think given the "extra" teams were generally backmarkers I haven't looked at the impact of that at all. 

    What I do know is I'd love to see what sort of analysis Liberty are doing - I bet Brawn & Symonds have got immense quantities of data at their disposal AND the brains to know when useful conclusions can be drawn
    0reaction image LOL 0reaction image Wow! 0reaction image Wisdom · Share on Facebook Share on Twitter
  • sinbaadisinbaadi Frets: 807
    Someone made an analogy to football earlier, which is fair except it would have to be robot football.  No dips in form, either it works or it does not, and whoever created the best team of football robots would win the championship.

    The drivers are machine operators.  Talented, yes, but they are mostly all capable of putting any of those cars in the grid position of which it is capable compared with the others.

    You are only seeing the difference between driver a and driver b in any team.

    Keep the reliability and in my opinion, kill the technical performance disparity.  It's the only way for there to be good racing, consistently, in formula one.
    0reaction image LOL 0reaction image Wow! 0reaction image Wisdom · Share on Facebook Share on Twitter
  • HeartfeltdawnHeartfeltdawn Frets: 10896
    @sinbaadi "Kill the technical performance disparity" - so would you go for something equivalent to Balance of Performance in WEC? 
    I make Jeremy Paxman look like Fingermouse. 
    0reaction image LOL 0reaction image Wow! 0reaction image Wisdom · Share on Facebook Share on Twitter
  • GarthyGarthy Frets: 1643
    What’s the trend like without 1982 which is clearly an anomaly?
    0reaction image LOL 0reaction image Wow! 0reaction image Wisdom · Share on Facebook Share on Twitter
  • sinbaadisinbaadi Frets: 807
    @sinbaadi "Kill the technical performance disparity" - so would you go for something equivalent to Balance of Performance in WEC? 
    No I'd use spec parts or even a claiming rule with a budget cap so it simply wasn't worth the investment in development to find the final few tenths.  I'd prefer the former because, like any performance adjuster, you encourage tactical sandbagging which is farcical.  

    As interesting as it might occasionally be to see the new cars for the new season and analyse the differences, I don't give a toss about that stuff on a Sunday afternoon.
    0reaction image LOL 0reaction image Wow! 0reaction image Wisdom · Share on Facebook Share on Twitter
  • stickyfiddlestickyfiddle Frets: 9049
    edited July 12
    Garthy said:
    What’s the trend like without 1982 which is clearly an anomaly?
    All shift down slightly but the gradients hardly change. '82 was certainly an anomaly in terms of drivers on the podium, but actually not for number of driver winners (8 - same as '83 and '85), or for teams (81, 83 also had 6 winning teams, and 89 had 10 teams reaching the podium, with 81, 97 and even 2008 having 9 teams doing the same).

    TBH 82 was really only exceptional for driver stats because 3 of the top guys all stopped during the season - Villeneuve & Pironi died, and Carlos Reutemann retired to go rallying - it's possible that all of these may have taken more wins & podiums from the other guys had they all raced right through the season - certainly Tambay at the very least, as he took Villeneuve's slot at Ferrari.




    0reaction image LOL 0reaction image Wow! 0reaction image Wisdom · Share on Facebook Share on Twitter
  • GarthyGarthy Frets: 1643
    There were also boycotts too.
    0reaction image LOL 0reaction image Wow! 0reaction image Wisdom · Share on Facebook Share on Twitter
  • ColsCols Frets: 222
    As far back as I can remember, every year there has been a dominant team that gets most of the wins, a challenger team that may give them a hard time and a third team that might snag the occasional win or two.  The exceptions are 1988 (Prost v Senna) and 2014-2016 (the Lewis and Nico Show).  It’s always the way of it.

    What’s changed over the past 10-15 years is that reliability has become so fantastic that the probability of another team getting onto the podium as a result of mechanical failure in one of the Big Three has become increasingly small.

    Teams are spending a fantastic amount of effort to ensure cast-iron reliability these days.  Engine or transmission failure carries a disproportionate penalty; not only are you out of the race, but you’ll most likely get a grid penalty in a subsequent race.

    Sports thrive on unpredictability; only Schumacher-era masochists are happy tuning in every race to see the same old faces on the podium.  The current regulatory climate basically ensures predictability.  Stable and constrictive regulation limits any kind of innovation, engine development is frozen and pushing the envelope at the expense of reliability will find you at the back of the grid for the next race.  The only real unpredictability left is the weather and drivers having accidents.
    0reaction image LOL 0reaction image Wow! 1reaction image Wisdom · Share on Facebook Share on Twitter
  • ColsCols Frets: 222
    edited July 19
    Hamilton’s signed for another two years at Mercedes, on a base salary of £30 million with up to £10 million more in bonuses.

    https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN1K91AW

    Strange that they didn’t announce Bottas at the same time?
    0reaction image LOL 0reaction image Wow! 0reaction image Wisdom · Share on Facebook Share on Twitter
  • not_the_djnot_the_dj Frets: 5503
    Cols said:


    Strange that they didn’t announce Bottas at the same time?
    They have today...one year contract with an option for 2020.
    0reaction image LOL 0reaction image Wow! 0reaction image Wisdom · Share on Facebook Share on Twitter
Sign In or Register to comment.