Current guitar/amp that will be seen as a classic collectible

riscado

No, but seriously... danocasters, anyone? :P

gubble

I think classic collectable items are split into 3 distinctive groups:

1. Stuff that was very good and quite often cheap at the time they were released.
2. Stuff that sold badly/made in Ltd numbers so is rare
3. Stuff that was expensive and designed to be collectors items anyway

These Ltd edition Fender Amps with frankly baffling prices will be collectable in the future because that's what they are designed for - collecters. Is anyone going to buy one of these amps made from a whiskey cask because of it's superior tone for live work or recording - of course not. It's going to sit at home on display as a collectable that from time to time will be used to play with.

The hello kitty strat baffles me  - as far as I can tell it's nothing special yet because of it having this cool collectors mystique about it they go for frankly crazy money.

Amp wise I'm predicting a Fender Vaporizer

Pedal Wise - Digitech Bad Monkey

Guitar Wise - Fender Lite Ash Stratocaster

Whitecat

I disagree with number 3 ever really working out though except in extremely rare circumstances. Generally when someone markets something as "collectable" or "investment grade", it isn't.

PRS Private Stock is a classic example of this.

fandango

gubble said:

I think classic collectable items are split into 3 distinctive groups:

1. Stuff that was very good and quite often cheap at the time they were released.
2. Stuff that sold badly/made in Ltd numbers so is rare
3. Stuff that was expensive and designed to be collectors items anyway

We (should) all be able to nod along with the following historic examples:

1. 1950's Fender Strats - cheap as chips back in the day, now £20k for the right one
2. 1959 Les Pauls - sold so poorly they barely made 600, now worth circa £half a million
3. Gibson diamond-encrusted SG called the 'Eden of Coronet' - one-off worth over $2m


I could add a 4th Category:

4. Stuff that was made in very limited numbers, to a very limited clientele, to a very secret recipe, where you're talking Klon Centaur at one end (£500?), and a Dumble (£50,000?) at the other.

Aidanspaghetti

Tylers. Just see what the price new on them is now. Especially with the introduction of the Japanese shop. I plan to start hoovering up a few this year.

guitars4you

Hell of a mixed bag here - massive opinions and options and maybe to many to discuss in a short sentence or two

Rare, on its own,  does not always or often mean desirable or collectible

Collectible can change - if the new or next guitar hero came along and for instance and played an 80's Kramer Floyd Rose, or an Ovation Viper, then demand would instantly pick up - Look what happened with Mossrite and The Ramones or Jack White and Airline Guitars, or Kurt Cobain and all the off shoots of Jaguars/Mustangs etc and go back in time with Clapton and The Beano LP - Recently we've see the value of The Starcaster seriously increase in value, certainly compared to the prices and demand from 20 and 30 years ago

Is the question also based around, what is for sale today at say 1K and will be worth 2K in 5 or 10 years time 

Is the question also based around what is the next pre CBS Strat or 50's/60's 335 - I'm not sure there will be a good example to cover this option

Also let's assume no massive down turn in the economy, so now allow for a gradual increase in inflation over a 10/20 year period - In that case, many new classic guitars that are for sale today for say 2K, will rise in price to a new price of 3K, as many examples have done in the last 10-30 years, regarding classic models - on that basis, as new guitars increase in price then so will used prices - as such a used Gibson R8 today will sell for more than its current vale in 10/20 years time - this is based on a fairly level economic climate, yet who the hell knows where that is going - Maybe the restrictive or negative impact on this would be to many R8's out there and a declining list of guitar players to sell to

Again, future CITES changes might have a monstrous impact on what woods that new guitars can be built from - As such in 5 or 10 years time you may only be able to buy a used Gibson/Fender/PRS/Martin etc etc with a rosewood board, as new guitars may have to find a new option/material

I think the original PRS Modern Eagle and indeed the original 513, both with Brazilian Rosewood necks,  are 2 classic examples of guitars that I expected to rise in value yet have barely budged in their used value over the last 5 years - take into account they are awesome guitars regarding build quality - sold well when new - you can't buy the same spec'd guitar today - All the ingredients and pedigree is there, but no additional hype as raised prices yet

crunchman

guitars4you said:

I think the original PRS Modern Eagle and indeed the original 513, both with Brazilian Rosewood necks,  are 2 classic examples of guitars that I expected to rise in value yet have barely budged in their used value over the last 5 years - take into account they are awesome guitars regarding build quality - sold well when new - you can't buy the same spec'd guitar today - All the ingredients and pedigree is there, but no additional hype as raised prices yet

I'd be wary of buying something with BRW because of the all the CITES issues though. Whether that is part of it I don't know.

There are also an awful lot of PRS limited runs over the years.  I don't think they are as rare or exclusive as some might think.

I had a 1990 Limited Edition for a while that was part of a run of 300.  Before that there was the Signature of which I think there were about 1000.  If memory serves correctly, there were 4 Artist Series and there was a run of 250 BRW neck McCartys before you get to the first runs of Modern Eagles and 513s.  I've kind of lost interest in PRS over the last 10 years or so, I'm not so sure what they have had recently, but I think I remember the Paul's Guitar being advertised, and I am sure there are other limited runs as well.  There are also thousands of Private Stock guitars out there now as well.  I just found #6379 on World Guitars website.

If you add 6000 plus Private Stock to all the other limited runs there are probably 10,000 of these premium PRS out there.

Ancient_Mariner

Current stuff, it's hard to say. Limited editions are a good bet though: I really wanted a bowling ball strat, but by the time I had spare cash all the ones they couldn't sell had been flogged cheap and prices were climbing, likewise a Gibson Lawn Dart. Boutique guitars will almost always lose money, but more like an Apple device than a Samsung.

Regarding Gubble's point 2, there are plenty of examples from the past: Switch vibracell guitars, most First Act guitars, the Squier 51, Dean Baby series, even some Harley Benton guitars sell for more used on Ebay than they cost originally. Hello Kitty sits well within this by being of limited availability (so not many people will have realised they play like any other starter guitar) and looking different.

I don't think there will ever be an equivalent to 70s Matsumoku guitars, but you never know. The effect of time passing makes people do stupid things - I was going to say that no-one should ever pay more than £25 for a used Bad Monkey (I bought one new at £25 and another used at £20, never really got on with them) but then I remember the fuss over the MkI Dano Transparent Overdrive that was meant to be a Timmy.

guitars4you

crunchman said:

guitars4you said:

I think the original PRS Modern Eagle and indeed the original 513, both with Brazilian Rosewood necks,  are 2 classic examples of guitars that I expected to rise in value yet have barely budged in their used value over the last 5 years - take into account they are awesome guitars regarding build quality - sold well when new - you can't buy the same spec'd guitar today - All the ingredients and pedigree is there, but no additional hype as raised prices yet

I'd be wary of buying something with BRW because of the all the CITES issues though. Whether that is part of it I don't know.

There are also an awful lot of PRS limited runs over the years.  I don't think they are as rare or exclusive as some might think.

I had a 1990 Limited Edition for a while that was part of a run of 300.  Before that there was the Signature of which I think there were about 1000.  If memory serves correctly, there were 4 Artist Series and there was a run of 250 BRW neck McCartys before you get to the first runs of Modern Eagles and 513s.  I've kind of lost interest in PRS over the last 10 years or so, I'm not so sure what they have had recently, but I think I remember the Paul's Guitar being advertised, and I am sure there are other limited runs as well.  There are also thousands of Private Stock guitars out there now as well.  I just found #6379 on World Guitars website.

If you add 6000 plus Private Stock to all the other limited runs there are probably 10,000 of these premium PRS out there.

I agree with you on PS models and to a degree on so many forms of PRS Limited Edition/boutique models that have saturated the market and formed some form of over kill - But the ME Brz has surprised me - granted issues regarding CITES if sold overseas,  but within say the EU or indeed for USA customers selling within their borders then no issues - only my opinion obviously

certain Guitars have performed well like Jimmy Page LP's - various models I know - but the question is/was about finding the next trend - And those Brz Custom Shop Strats and Teles from around 2012 are doing okay as and when they are re-sold

Octafish

fandango said:

1. 1950's Fender Strats - cheap as chips back in the day, now £20k for the right one

It's a bit of a fallacy that Strats were 'cheap as chips' back in the 50's. I saw an article a while ago that said the cost of a 50's Strat new translates into £2500 in today's money, almost twice the price of the current 'standard' US model these days.

UnclePsychosis

The vintage guitar market is going to take a massive nosedive in a few years as the baby boomers die off---one, their guitar collections will be sold off with their estates (increasing supply) and two, demand for vintage guitars will drop---guitars from the fifties/sixties/seventies aren't as exciting to people that didn't witness those decades. 

Obviously some things will still be very rare/collectable/expensive but I think a lot of what was previously seen as a "good investment" will be found to be anything but in the long term. 

crunchman

UnclePsychosis said:

The vintage guitar market is going to take a massive nosedive in a few years as the baby boomers die off---one, their guitar collections will be sold off with their estates (increasing supply) and two, demand for vintage guitars will drop---guitars from the fifties/sixties/seventies aren't as exciting to people that didn't witness those decades. 

Obviously some things will still be very rare/collectable/expensive but I think a lot of what was previously seen as a "good investment" will be found to be anything but in the long term. 

There are a couple of other factors.

The CITES thing means that rich far eastern collectors will not legally be able to prop up the markets in the US and Europe for anything with Brazilian Rosewood.

Also, Gibson and Fender Custom Shops (or what became the Custom shops) started making good stuff again from the 90s onwards.  I'd rather have a 25 year old CS guitar than what they were churning out in the late 60's or 70's.

guitars4you

Octafish said:

fandango said:

1. 1950's Fender Strats - cheap as chips back in the day, now £20k for the right one

It's a bit of a fallacy that Strats were 'cheap as chips' back in the 50's. I saw an article a while ago that said the cost of a 50's Strat new translates into £2500 in today's money, almost twice the price of the current 'standard' US model these days.

Not sure I've come across articles, or chit chat that states they were as cheap as chips - but to my view that 50's Strat is more comparable to the C/Shop replicas which still sit around £2500 today so from that point of view then little difference

also around 1954 the average UK wage was under £10 a week, so such a Strat would cost around 14/15 weeks to buy - Today the ave weekly wage (according to one source) is around £540 per week - so on that basis less than 5 weeks wages to buy such a guitar

fandango

Octafish said:

fandango said:

1. 1950's Fender Strats - cheap as chips back in the day, now £20k for the right one

It's a bit of a fallacy that Strats were 'cheap as chips' back in the 50's. I saw an article a while ago that said the cost of a 50's Strat new translates into £2500 in today's money, almost twice the price of the current 'standard' US model these days.

Okay, yes I should have been a bit more scientific, and done some homework first.

From Fender's own website (http://www2.fender.com/experience/guitarchive/the-stratocaster-in-the-1950s/), a non-trem strat was $229.50 in 1954. Using http://www.dollartimes.com/, I know this had the same buying power as $2,018 in 2016. This is very approx = £1,600 in 2016 money. So yes, you are correct. Not so cheap, I admit.

However, I then went on to compare against average earnings: Average annual income in USA in 1954 = $3,155.64. A strat then would have cost approx 7.27% of annual income.

Today's (well 2015) average household (sorry, haven't found individual) income was approx $54,000 (varies depending on source). Therefore a guitar would equal approx 3.73% of annual household income. Interestingly USA salaries have increased considerably more than inflation, where $3,155.64 in 1954 is equivalent to $27,746.76 in 2016.

So I take it back. Strats were NOT cheap as chips back in the 1950's. Apologies for misleading you all.

Octafish

UnclePsychosis said:

-guitars from the fifties/sixties/seventies aren't as exciting to people that didn't witness those decades. 

Maybe so although that would suggest they should already be losing their value. You'd have to be 65-70+ now to have really witnessed the 50-60s, yet plenty of 30-40 yrear olds seem to still get GAS for 50-60s models. I think it might be more important as to how the legacy of the music from that period endures with regards to people still lusting over instrumemnts from that era in teh future.

alanchanxd

Fender Japan Iron Maiden Stratocaster
http://www.rockexplorer.com/reference/ElecGuitar/Fender/images/IronMaiden.jpg

Fender USA Highway One Showmaster 
http://media.musiciansfriend.com/is/image/MMGS7/U.S.-Special-Highway-One-Showmaster-HSS-Floyd-Rose-Pewter/511257000847000-00-500x500.jpg

Fender USA Strat Plus
http://chasingguitars.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/SPD1.jpg

Fender USA / Japan Richie Sambora strat (any variation except the Mexican one)
http://socalmusicexchange.com/les_pauls_richie_sambora_stratocaster.jpg

http://i1248.photobucket.com/albums/hh494/johnierian/10708657_822171441156677_6887952927711700499_o_zps3fd9f607.jpg

http://www.richiesamborastrat.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/richie-sambora-paisley-strat.jpg

Fender USA FN serial (rare export models).. so rare that I can't find an online picture. The Floyd Rose FN strat is more common, but the vintage tremolo FN strat is rare

Fender Korea "Squier Series" with the big fender decal instead of a big Squier decal.. these were the equivalent of the Mexican "Squier Series" but even rarer
http://www.tdpri.com/attachments/image-1681246804-jpg.183651/

Fender Japan "The Ventures" series
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_xWjoeLNcmQo/S9nhIXWfofI/AAAAAAAAE1E/Tei2fxePyjQ/s1600/MIJ+ventures+strat.jpg

Fender Japan Hellecaster
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-BFa9NTqSG3Y/UUZ9p_cslXI/AAAAAAAAGoE/cIqBcpbgvbg/s1600/Fender+Hellecaster+Guitarz+by+Bertram.jpg

Fender Japan custom shop (any variation, including extrad ones)
http://xhefriguitars.com/EXTRAD/extrad logo.jpg

http://www.ysw-tct.com/tele/fenderjcehead.jpg

Fender USA (but finished in Mexico) California series
http://basschat.co.uk/uploads/monthly_12_2009/post-5359-1261594475.jpg

fandango

Octafish said:

UnclePsychosis said:

-guitars from the fifties/sixties/seventies aren't as exciting to people that didn't witness those decades. 

Maybe so although that would suggest they should already be losing their value. You'd have to be 65-70+ now to have really witnessed the 50-60s, yet plenty of 30-40 yrear olds seem to still get GAS for 50-60s models. I think it might be more important as to how the legacy of the music from that period endures with regards to people still lusting over instrumemnts from that era in teh future.

Something I've heard said is that we have a favouring for the music arising from the decade/era in which we were born.

Ancient_Mariner

Octafish said:

UnclePsychosis said:

-guitars from the fifties/sixties/seventies aren't as exciting to people that didn't witness those decades. 

Maybe so although that would suggest they should already be losing their value. You'd have to be 65-70+ now to have really witnessed the 50-60s, yet plenty of 30-40 yrear olds seem to still get GAS for 50-60s models. I think it might be more important as to how the legacy of the music from that period endures with regards to people still lusting over instrumemnts from that era in teh future.

The guys who are 25-40 now will still buy them because they there is still a mystique about the era for them. It will be the millenials that will lose interest in the old music made with wood & wire and be more heavily invested psychologically in digital technology.

guitars4you

fandango said:

Octafish said:

fandango said:

1. 1950's Fender Strats - cheap as chips back in the day, now £20k for the right one

It's a bit of a fallacy that Strats were 'cheap as chips' back in the 50's. I saw an article a while ago that said the cost of a 50's Strat new translates into £2500 in today's money, almost twice the price of the current 'standard' US model these days.

Okay, yes I should have been a bit more scientific, and done some homework first.

From Fender's own website (http://www2.fender.com/experience/guitarchive/the-stratocaster-in-the-1950s/), a non-trem strat was $229.50 in 1954. Using http://www.dollartimes.com/, I know this had the same buying power as $2,018 in 2016. This is very approx = £1,600 in 2016 money. So yes, you are correct. Not so cheap, I admit.

However, I then went on to compare against average earnings: Average annual income in USA in 1954 = $3,155.64. A strat then would have cost approx 7.27% of annual income.

Today's (well 2015) average household (sorry, haven't found individual) income was approx $54,000 (varies depending on source). Therefore a guitar would equal approx 3.73% of annual household income. Interestingly USA salaries have increased considerably more than inflation, where $3,155.64 in 1954 is equivalent to $27,746.76 in 2016.

So I take it back. Strats were NOT cheap as chips back in the 1950's. Apologies for misleading you all.

good recovery anyway

ennspek

Anything I've owned because eventually the world must recognise my genius.