UK Government to confirm exit from EU single market in speech on Tuesday

quarky

fretmeister said:

So summarise the entire thread...

Everybody is an economist now.

Or a smart arse

fretmeister

quarky said:

fretmeister said:

So summarise the entire thread...

Everybody is an economist now.

Or a smart arse

Guilty.

olafgarten

I think another good thing about the referendum is that the Conservative party got a good shake up, I'm a conservative supporter but didn't like the way they were going recently so it's nice to see that change. 

Chalky

Brexit is a two year process, and by the end of those two years the EU will be an economic wreck.  We are simply getting off the train before it crashes.

ICBM

fretmeister said:

So summarise the entire thread...

Everybody is an economist now.

Probably can't do a worse job than actual economists, just on the law of averages and collective decision-making. Random uninformed opinion is possibly more likely to be right 50% of the time…

olafgarten said:

I think another good thing about the referendum is that the Conservative party got a good shake up, I'm a conservative supporter but didn't like the way they were going recently so it's nice to see that change. 

I liked the Night Of The Long Knives when The Red Queen May took over, and her masterstroke of neutralising Boris - but I'm far less impressed by anything that's happened since.

exocet

Chalky said:

Brexit is a two year process, and by the end of those two years the EU will be an economic wreck.  We are simply getting off the train before it crashes.

....And I get this BUT my position has always been - the the EU is the largest single "entity" that the UK trades with, If it crashes and burns, we are still no better off being out of it in 2 years time, we'll still be impacted significantly? We had already limited some of our exposure to such events by not being part of Euro Zone (I always approved of that approach). 

quarky

exocet said:

Chalky said:

Brexit is a two year process, and by the end of those two years the EU will be an economic wreck.  We are simply getting off the train before it crashes.

....And I get this BUT my position has always been - the the EU is the largest single "entity" that the UK trades with, If it crashes and burns, we are still no better off being out of it in 2 years time, we'll still be impacted significantly? We had already limited some of our exposure to such events by not being part of Euro Zone (I always approved of that approach). 

I thnk 2008 proved you wrong. We were much better able to respond by having some controls over our economy/currency than most of our EU neighbours. So yes, in the next economic meltdown, if the EU suffers, we will too, but at least we will suffer less by having more control, and more ability to respond.

exocet

quarky said:

exocet said:

Chalky said:

Brexit is a two year process, and by the end of those two years the EU will be an economic wreck.  We are simply getting off the train before it crashes.

....And I get this BUT my position has always been - the the EU is the largest single "entity" that the UK trades with, If it crashes and burns, we are still no better off being out of it in 2 years time, we'll still be impacted significantly? We had already limited some of our exposure to such events by not being part of Euro Zone (I always approved of that approach). 

I thnk 2008 proved you wrong. We were much better able to respond by having some controls over our economy/currency than most of our EU neighbours. So yes, in the next economic meltdown, if the EU suffers, we will too, but at least we will suffer less by having more control, and more ability to respond.

Your point being?

We had more control because we had and still have our own currency. I always supported us retaining £ and unless we were about to relinquish it in favour of Europe  (wasn't aware of any UK political party proposing that) my original point is still valid. We still set our own interest rates and our government sets fiscal policy?

fretmeister

It doesn't matter.

Trump will kill us all before the summer.

Motorhate

@Snap ;; said:

just about every one of the points you have made about leaving are actually wrong. We have done this to death, and i just can't be arsed to get into it again.

We get more back from the EU than we put in, for sure. When you look at the whole thing. If anyone doesn't see that now, its pointless me trying to persuade you. Waste of time.

Well that's just not true is it? We contributed (in 2015 for example) £13 billion to the EU budget, and EU spending on the UK was £4.5 billion. So the UK's 'net contribution' was estimated at about £8.5 billion. Please explain how we get more out of it. That's like me lending you a tenner, you giving me back two quid and saying, you're getting more than you gave me back.


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35943216

There's a chart in that article that predicts the UK's contribution minus the rebate for the next five years. The figures are eye-watering.

In the next couple of years, as our cost of goods and living escalates, as it is already, and small business who trade outside of the UK find that costs of doing business start to increase, we will all feel the pinch.

You're assuming that businesses that trade outside the UK all trade with the EU. That simply isn't true. At present, we can't even negotiate our own trade deals without any single member state veto'ing it. A recent trade deal with Canada was scuppered by Romania because they didn't like the way the Canadians didn't issue visas to Romanians. That is just pure madness when it comes to trade deals. Without EU interferance we will be able to negotiate our own trade deals. The companies who trade with us, will, I'm sure put pressure on the EU to set up fair trade deals with the UK or face huge criticism from its members.

Whatever emerges from the EU exit, if the powers that be don't protect the City of London, we are all totally fkd for quite a while.

I agree, but I'm sure they know this too, hence the bailing out of the banks in 2008.

Its not about snobbery or intellecutal elitism (fuelling position in the debate), its about practicality. Now that we are committed to leaving, we probably have a generation of uncertainty and high living costs ahead of us.

We simply don't know that. Its all speculation, as was borne out by the doom and gloom mongers before the referendum. A lot has been said about the Leave campaign and the lies they told. Yes, they did tell some whoppers but it does make me laugh that people are shocked and angry that some politicians have lied. They do it all the time, what did you expect. I think the Remain campaign gets off fairly lightly as they were equally guilty of telling some proper porkies and it also proved that so-called "economic experts" aren't really "experts" after all.

and the whole immigration argument is a total lie, I can't believe anyone thinks Brexit will have an impact on it. It really won't.

A population increase since 2000 that is the largest ever in 90 years and you don't think this is having an impact on the infrastucture of the UK? Is that what you're saying or is it that Brexit will have no impact on the amount of people coming to the UK?

stickyfiddle

I honestly don't understand the whole freedom of movement thing. Getting a visa to work in another country is really not very difficult and frankly anyone who is put off the idea purely by that process shouldn't be leaving their own house. It's a bit annoying but nothing more than hoop-jumping and paperwork. The UK passport is one of the most powerful in the world and Brexit won't change that. 

I understand it for jobbing musicians who might be touring, but again, just because you may not keep the right to live and work permanently somewhere doesn't necessarily meaning visiting once to play a couple of gigs will automatically become a nightmare.

quarky

exocet said:

quarky said:

exocet said:

Chalky said:

Brexit is a two year process, and by the end of those two years the EU will be an economic wreck.  We are simply getting off the train before it crashes.

....And I get this BUT my position has always been - the the EU is the largest single "entity" that the UK trades with, If it crashes and burns, we are still no better off being out of it in 2 years time, we'll still be impacted significantly? We had already limited some of our exposure to such events by not being part of Euro Zone (I always approved of that approach). 

I thnk 2008 proved you wrong. We were much better able to respond by having some controls over our economy/currency than most of our EU neighbours. So yes, in the next economic meltdown, if the EU suffers, we will too, but at least we will suffer less by having more control, and more ability to respond.

Your point being?

We had more control because we had and still have our own currency. I always supported us retaining £ and unless we were about to relinquish it in favour of Europe  (wasn't aware of any UK political party proposing that) my original point is still valid. We still set our own interest rates and our government sets fiscal policy?

My point being that we *are* better off economically "out" if the same situation rolls around again. Like you said, the control we had over the £ helped, but there are others regulations/rules around what and how we can spend which are enforced by the EU. Those will disappear (if we are out by then) giving the Government even *more* control over how it responds. As a specific example, the EU sets rules around budget surpluses. If we need to spend more in future over a tax-year, we could (I am not saying we should of course, but we will at least have that option).

Motorhate

DarnWeight said:This is the truth-twisting that's still going on, right now, even after the referendum campaign, and it was writ large in May's speech yesterday, namely that "immigration drives down wages".  This is the one point that Corbyn has been hammering over and over again.  It's not the immigrants that are driving down the wages, it's the employers.  Free movement, in and of itself, isn't the problem.  The exploitation of such free movement by unscrupulous employers is the problem.  There are ways around some of this...chiefly that freedom of movement is actually a qualified right, and not an absolute right, and there are treaty articles which would allow the suspension of free movement under certain conditions.  With a responsible government in place, these options could have been pursued far more vigorously than they were, but the Conservatives were wedded to a Referendum for purely party political reasons, and that was that.

I know there will be moans here, linking to a Guardian piece, but Paul Mason wrote an excellent article a few days ago outlining some practical ways of tackling these issues whilst remaining in the single market.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jan/16/we-can-escape-brexit-doom-with-one-small-tweak-to-free-movement

I think you picked me up wrong there. I AM NOT BLAMING IMMIGRANTS as an entity for driving down wages. I'm blaming the system, which as you point out, allows employers to exploit the ever increasing employee market and the vast numbers of workers willing to do these jobs for less wages. I genuinely feel sorry for them (I don't expect you to believe me but I do) as I think many are being exploited by unscrupulous employers. I've spoken to many (recently, a Greek fella, educated to degree standard, working in a coffee shop in London because the Spanish economy is screwed) who hated working where he worked, but knew full well that there was always someone willing to do the job for the same money and same conditions. Its not in employers interest to raise wages and improve conditions because of the large labour market. With the freedom of movement that the EU allows, this facilitates this attitude. Its a capitalist's dream.

exocet

quarky said:

exocet said:

quarky said:

exocet said:

Chalky said:

Brexit is a two year process, and by the end of those two years the EU will be an economic wreck.  We are simply getting off the train before it crashes.

....And I get this BUT my position has always been - the the EU is the largest single "entity" that the UK trades with, If it crashes and burns, we are still no better off being out of it in 2 years time, we'll still be impacted significantly? We had already limited some of our exposure to such events by not being part of Euro Zone (I always approved of that approach). 

I thnk 2008 proved you wrong. We were much better able to respond by having some controls over our economy/currency than most of our EU neighbours. So yes, in the next economic meltdown, if the EU suffers, we will too, but at least we will suffer less by having more control, and more ability to respond.

Your point being?

We had more control because we had and still have our own currency. I always supported us retaining £ and unless we were about to relinquish it in favour of Europe  (wasn't aware of any UK political party proposing that) my original point is still valid. We still set our own interest rates and our government sets fiscal policy?

My point being that we *are* better off economically "out" if the same situation rolls around again. Like you said, the control we had over the £ helped, but there are others regulations/rules around what and how we can spend which are enforced by the EU. Those will disappear (if we are out by then) giving the Government even *more* control over how it responds. As a specific example, the EU sets rules around budget surpluses. If we need to spend more in future over a tax-year, we could (I am not saying we should of course, but we will at least have that option).

Tell me which country actually adheres to the EU stipulated Budget surplus? There can't be many - Germany?

bodhi

stickyfiddle said:

I honestly don't understand the whole freedom of movement thing. Getting a visa to work in another country is really not very difficult and frankly anyone who is put off the idea purely by that process shouldn't be leaving their own house. It's a bit annoying but nothing more than hoop-jumping and paperwork.

It can actually be rather more difficult, time consuming, and expensive, than you'd think, if you've never had to do it yourself.  Perhaps your experience has been different, if you've had to.

It certainly is a damn sight more difficult than having the freedom to just live and work anywhere without all the paperwork and hoop jumping.  I can imagine that it's going to be a bit of a wake-up call for some people if they find themselves having to apply for visas where before they could just hop on a plane.

Motorhate

bodhi said:

I can imagine that it's going to be a bit of a wake-up call for some people if they find themselves having to apply for visas where before they could just hop on a plane.

I wouldn't mind a little inconvenience, safe in the knowledge that we're not funding the EU to the tune of £8.5bn which will be propping up economies that the EU has ruined and funding German industry.

DarnWeight

Motorhate said:

DarnWeight said:This is the truth-twisting that's still going on, right now, even after the referendum campaign, and it was writ large in May's speech yesterday, namely that "immigration drives down wages".  This is the one point that Corbyn has been hammering over and over again.  It's not the immigrants that are driving down the wages, it's the employers.  Free movement, in and of itself, isn't the problem.  The exploitation of such free movement by unscrupulous employers is the problem.  There are ways around some of this...chiefly that freedom of movement is actually a qualified right, and not an absolute right, and there are treaty articles which would allow the suspension of free movement under certain conditions.  With a responsible government in place, these options could have been pursued far more vigorously than they were, but the Conservatives were wedded to a Referendum for purely party political reasons, and that was that.

I know there will be moans here, linking to a Guardian piece, but Paul Mason wrote an excellent article a few days ago outlining some practical ways of tackling these issues whilst remaining in the single market.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jan/16/we-can-escape-brexit-doom-with-one-small-tweak-to-free-movement

I think you picked me up wrong there. I AM NOT BLAMING IMMIGRANTS as an entity for driving down wages. I'm blaming the system, which as you point out, allows employers to exploit the ever increasing employee market and the vast numbers of workers willing to do these jobs for less wages. I genuinely feel sorry for them (I don't expect you to believe me but I do) as I think many are being exploited by unscrupulous employers. I've spoken to many (recently, a Greek fella, educated to degree standard, working in a coffee shop in London because the Spanish economy is screwed) who hated working where he worked, but knew full well that there was always someone willing to do the job for the same money and same conditions. Its not in employers interest to raise wages and improve conditions because of the large labour market. With the freedom of movement that the EU allows, this facilitates this attitude. Its a capitalist's dream.

Dude, we're on the same side of the argument on this point, clearly, and I've duly awarded you a Wis.  My point is that these are things that can be dealt with within the existing EU structures, rather than scapegoating the institution itself.  As you said, it's the exploitation at the heart of unfettered capitalism that's the crux of the problem, and not the EU itself.  There has always been and will always be movement of people to find work, or a better place to live.  Leaving the EU will not materially change that, and a number of very vocal Leave supporters have been at pains to point this out (Daniel Hannan for one...but only, rather conveniently, after the referendum result).  Will we able to reduce numbers?  Yes, probably.  Will we be able to reduce numbers to the levels people are expecting?  Probably not.

In fact, if we do end up taking a harder Brexit, as it now looks, this fostering of a low hours/wage economy won't end, but will be shouldered by poorer British workers instead.  Now that's what I call having your cake and eating it.

I think most other European countries will find themselves dealing with the same problems regarding free movement sooner rather than later, and that it's just come to a head in the UK now due to the poisonous strain of opportunism and truth denial our political system and media have cultivated.  Calmer heads might have seen through this, and kept pushing for longer-term EU reforms.

Sporky

fretmeister said:

Everybody is an economist now.

In that I know nothing about what the economy will do next, but am well able to offer up unsatisfying explanations after the fact, all in a patronising tone to hide my utter terror that someone will realise I'm making it all up on the spot?

Oh yeah.

stickyfiddle

bodhi said:

stickyfiddle said:

I honestly don't understand the whole freedom of movement thing. Getting a visa to work in another country is really not very difficult and frankly anyone who is put off the idea purely by that process shouldn't be leaving their own house. It's a bit annoying but nothing more than hoop-jumping and paperwork.

It can actually be rather more difficult, time consuming, and expensive, than you'd think, if you've never had to do it yourself.  Perhaps your experience has been different, if you've had to.

It certainly is a damn sight more difficult than having the freedom to just live and work anywhere without all the paperwork and hoop jumping.  I can imagine that it's going to be a bit of a wake-up call for some people if they find themselves having to apply for visas where before they could just hop on a plane.

Well I'm writing this from my office in Abu Dhabi, so I do have a chunky bit of experience! I can't speak for every European country but I've applied for a huge number of visas over the last 4 years. I really don't believe it's a big deal. A bit annoying, absolutely, but not a critical issue to make the decision on, personally.

I say this as someone who didn't vote and still hasn't decided which way I would vote if everything was reset and I had to choose tomorrow.

bodhi

DarnWeight said:

Calmer heads might have seen through this, and kept pushing for longer-term EU reforms.

None of us can really tell what the future holds, but on a gut feel level as an average, non-expert in these things kind of person I'd personally have preferred this type of option to the uncertainties which now lie ahead.

I'm sure it'll all be "fine", one way or another, but uncertainty doesn't do anyone any good.

Or maybe who dares wins.

Time to find out.