UK Government to confirm exit from EU single market in speech on Tuesday

quarky

exocet said:

Tell me which country actually adheres to the EU stipulated Budget surplus? There can't be many - Germany?

Well, we would have to I guess!

fretmeister

Sporky said:

fretmeister said:

Everybody is an economist now.

In that I know nothing about what the economy will do next, but am well able to offer up unsatisfying explanations after the fact, all in a patronising tone to hide my utter terror that someone will realise I'm making it all up on the spot?

Oh yeah.

That.

It's actually worse than when the death penalty brigade start making stuff up about the law. With economics I wish to learn as I admit I know very little (which is why I don't join in substantively) but I can't identify any post in this thread that even sounds worthy of deeper review, while at the same time noting the existence of completely opposite but apparently equally dubious posts.

I'm almost at the point of buying a book on the subject, but to ask for recommendations would no doubt cause a flood of "that author is a nobber" type responses.

I might just set up a twitter account that appears to be from North Korea in the hope that I can hasten the end.

Chalky

bodhi said:

stickyfiddle said:

I honestly don't understand the whole freedom of movement thing. Getting a visa to work in another country is really not very difficult and frankly anyone who is put off the idea purely by that process shouldn't be leaving their own house. It's a bit annoying but nothing more than hoop-jumping and paperwork.

It can actually be rather more difficult, time consuming, and expensive, than you'd think, if you've never had to do it yourself.  Perhaps your experience has been different, if you've had to.

It certainly is a damn sight more difficult than having the freedom to just live and work anywhere without all the paperwork and hoop jumping.  I can imagine that it's going to be a bit of a wake-up call for some people if they find themselves having to apply for visas where before they could just hop on a plane.

I suspect in the interests of their tourist industries, many EU countries will make it rather easy for us to visit and spend money.

Sporky

fretmeister said:

Sporky said:

fretmeister said:

Everybody is an economist now.

In that I know nothing about what the economy will do next, but am well able to offer up unsatisfying explanations after the fact, all in a patronising tone to hide my utter terror that someone will realise I'm making it all up on the spot?

Oh yeah.

That.

It's actually worse than when the death penalty brigade start making stuff up about the law. With economics I wish to learn as I admit I know very little (which is why I don't join in substantively) but I can't identify any post in this thread that even sounds worthy of deeper review, while at the same time noting the existence of completely opposite but apparently equally dubious posts.

I'm almost at the point of buying a book on the subject, but to ask for recommendations would no doubt cause a flood of "that author is a nobber" type responses.

I might just set up a twitter account that appears to be from North Korea in the hope that I can hasten the end.

I was making a joke about economists!

bodhi

Chalky said:I suspect in the interests of their tourist industries, many EU countries will make it rather easy for us to visit and spend money.

Sure, but I'm talking about living and working, not touristing.  Should have said work permits, rather than visas, to be more accurate.

fretmeister

Sporky said:

fretmeister said:

Sporky said:

fretmeister said:

Everybody is an economist now.

In that I know nothing about what the economy will do next, but am well able to offer up unsatisfying explanations after the fact, all in a patronising tone to hide my utter terror that someone will realise I'm making it all up on the spot?

Oh yeah.

That.

It's actually worse than when the death penalty brigade start making stuff up about the law. With economics I wish to learn as I admit I know very little (which is why I don't join in substantively) but I can't identify any post in this thread that even sounds worthy of deeper review, while at the same time noting the existence of completely opposite but apparently equally dubious posts.

I'm almost at the point of buying a book on the subject, but to ask for recommendations would no doubt cause a flood of "that author is a nobber" type responses.

I might just set up a twitter account that appears to be from North Korea in the hope that I can hasten the end.

I was making a joke about economists!

Doh!

I'm a bit punchy today. I'm wading through 8 file boxes to look for something naughty and I've got man flu.

Daisy, Daiiiiiiisy....... What are you doing, Dave?

Sporky

fretmeister said:

I was making a joke about economists!

Doh!

I'm a bit punchy today. I'm wading through 8 file boxes to look for something naughty and I've got man flu.

Daisy, Daiiiiiiisy....... What are you doing, Dave?

FWIW I agree with you on a serious level too.

I also find it hard to believe that setting up trade agreements (for example) is a really simple thing that will take only a couple of weeks.

Motorhate

DarnWeight said:

Dude, we're on the same side of the argument on this point, clearly, and I've duly awarded you a Wis.  My point is that these are things that can be dealt with within the existing EU structures, rather than scapegoating the institution itself.  As you said, it's the exploitation at the heart of unfettered capitalism that's the crux of the problem, and not the EU itself.  There has always been and will always be movement of people to find work, or a better place to live.  Leaving the EU will not materially change that, and a number of very vocal Leave supporters have been at pains to point this out (Daniel Hannan for one...but only, rather conveniently, after the referendum result).  Will we able to reduce numbers?  Yes, probably.  Will we be able to reduce numbers to the levels people are expecting?  Probably not.

In fact, if we do end up taking a harder Brexit, as it now looks, this fostering of a low hours/wage economy won't end, but will be shouldered by poorer British workers instead.  Now that's what I call having your cake and eating it.

I think most other European countries will find themselves dealing with the same problems regarding free movement sooner rather than later, and that it's just come to a head in the UK now due to the poisonous strain of opportunism and truth denial our political system and media have cultivated.  Calmer heads might have seen through this, and kept pushing for longer-term EU reforms.

Yes, I can see where we agree to a point but I think this is where we differ: I personally don't think its in the EU's interest to change the status quo regarding unscrupulous employers. Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying that all employers are unscrupulous and I realise that they have to make profits but to raise wages (especially in the un-skilled labour market) doesn't make sense to them if there's always a ready and willing pool of workers ready to step in and do the job for a minimum wage, which to an indigenous worker will be barely enought to survive on but to a foreign worker, will allow them to save or send money home. I'll give you an example ...

http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/scores-govan-shipbuilders-facing-axe-5676486

The trouble is, indigenous workers have to pay rent / mortgages and if they have families to support. Foreign workers can leave their families at home, live is pretty basic conditions here, send money home and still be better off. That's hardly fair on indigenous workers IMO. From my experience, this is a phenomenon that the EU has introduced, fostered and now uses as a successful selling point. 

fretmeister

Sporky said:

fretmeister said:

I was making a joke about economists!

Doh!

I'm a bit punchy today. I'm wading through 8 file boxes to look for something naughty and I've got man flu.

Daisy, Daiiiiiiisy....... What are you doing, Dave?

FWIW I agree with you on a serious level too.

I also find it hard to believe that setting up trade agreements (for example) is a really simple thing that will take only a couple of weeks.

I've never drafted a trade agreement. But I have drafted many settlement and compromise agreements, and conditional fee agreements etc etc, and sometimes even the modest value ones can take months if the personalities clash, or there is a simple dispute over preferred wording that is supposed to only have 1 interpretation.

Gawd knows what happens when there are 27 opinions and about 20 languages though.

In fact I would probably go as far to say that if trade agreement terms can be agreed in a month or two, then someone somewhere has been negligent.

Chalky

@Motorhate said "The trouble is, indigenous workers have to pay rent / mortgages and if they have families to support. Foreign workers can leave their families at home, live is pretty basic conditions here, send money home and still be better off. That's hardly fair on indigenous workers IMO."

I was speaking to a Bulgarian the other day who said that in his home town, a loaf of good bread cost one tenth of what he paid for a very similar loaf in a supermarket when staying in Berlin.  His Bulgarian friends and family simply cannot imagine moving to the Euro because prices will skyrocket, with some forecasts of basic living costs being tripled within the first year or two.

quarky

Sporky said:

I also find it hard to believe that setting up trade agreements (for example) is a really simple thing that will take only a couple of weeks.

Apart from Trump, I am not sure if anyone thinks that. Ultimately there is going to have to be speculation, and a lot of it, until we are actually out, because we are in uncharted waters in many ways. For some countries it took 5 years or a decade following independence just to become a WTO member. For the UK though, we already are, so it is different.

Motorhate

Chalky said:
I was speaking to a Bulgarian the other day who said that in his home town, a loaf of good bread cost one tenth of what he paid for a very similar loaf in a supermarket when staying in Berlin.  His Bulgarian friends and family simply cannot imagine moving to the Euro because prices will skyrocket, with some forecasts of basic living costs being tripled within the first year or two.

First year or two? Try overnight mate. My mum lived in Ireland, right at the time when the Euro was introduced over the Irish Punt and prices doubled overnight. Instead of doing a like for like change, comparing the exchange rate etc. they just did a straight conversion, so anything cost 1 Irish Punt would now cost 1 Euro. The Irish Punt was very weak at the time and this caused huge price hikes in the cost of living. The uproar that followed was ugly (and quite rightly so) but the government refused to budge. My mum moved back shortly afterwards, just simply couldn't afford to live over there and was amazed how people survived.

Sporky

quarky said:

Sporky said:

I also find it hard to believe that setting up trade agreements (for example) is a really simple thing that will take only a couple of weeks.

Apart from Trump, I am not sure if anyone thinks that.

There have been plenty of people here insisting that it's dead easy - you grab one off the internet, write your name at the top in crayon, and get on with it.

Snap

fretmeister said:

So summarise the entire thread...

Everybody is an economist now.

nah mate, its just bleeding tiresome and its going to go on and on and on for chuffing years! IT may well be alright in the end, but I think its pretty certain that for the next few years our money will go less far, as most things will be costing more.

lenny_b

I've yet to see a Leave argument that's convinced me that the (short or long term) damage is worth it.  £8.5bn seems a pittance compared to the price increases that we're already paying 

Moe_Zambeek

lenny_b said:

I've yet to see a Leave argument that's convinced me that the (short or long term) damage is worth it.  £8.5bn seems a pittance compared to the price increases that we're already paying 

If your food shopping has gone up more than £8.5bn then you have more than Brexit to worry about

Nitefly

Well then, seems I was right about the flounce! 

quarky

Well, as someone said above, we haven't actually got our independence back yet!

mellowsun

Looks like Paris is the place to be if you are in the banking industry

octatonic