UK Government to confirm exit from EU single market in speech on Tuesday

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  • ToneControlToneControl Frets: 11789
    The point, Mr TC, is that turnout for the referendum was done over a much wider area that for Stoke on Trent Central. When you mention the turnout, you said 'What was the turnout in Stoke?', not Stoke on Trent Central. 

    Re. Bristol: it's obvious. If a strong Remain area like Bristol can still have a decent Leave vote despite being a Labour mayor area, decent Labour MP representation, and some decent Green results at local level (thus indicating a strong left wing element), then a Labour safe area like Stoke might go the same way. Bristol had tons of data I saw that has never been reported like the number of people who voted for UKIP as mayor but had Labour as their second choice and vice versa. That's data you didn't see but folk like me with a predilection for anal mental noting doing the count did see. 

    So now we wait for the SoTCentral result to see if people stay with the party they've always gone when it comes to MP elections or whether they'll be going with one issue to determine where their vote goes. 

    Extra referendum votes: well, look at Scotland. Look at the turnout for that referendum versus the Scottish turnout in the EU referndum versus the Scottish turnout in the General Election. 

    ScotRef 2014: 84.6%
    Scot EU ref 2016: 67.2%
    Scot GE 2015: 71.1%. 

    I'd suggest that the EU referendum was more important to English voters than Scottish voters. ScotRef was their big moment: for many English voters, EURef was theirs. With Northern Ireland having a 62% turnout and Wales 71%. So if ScotRef saw a big turnout which was then followed by a drop for the GE and then the referendum, then we have seen my theory above being tested out in a GE in one region that has also had a major referendum. So those extra 

    I don't know where you get this idea that I'm confident on Labour voters carrying on voting Labour when I say quite clearly how voter apathy was Labour's biggest problem in 2015. Clinton had the same problem, the traditionals would turn out but she couldn't motivate the new breed of voters particularly well and Miliband was the same. Now Corbyn, for all his daft inclinations, has clearly got a motivated young base of voter interested in politics. Statistically across the country, young people generally plumped for Remain. Those folk, if they are motivated enough to get to the ballot box, could well be very important. 

    Here's another reason why Labour should not be complacent: the 2014 Heywood and Middleton by-election. 

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heywood_and_Middleton_by-election,_2014

    Now you talk of how I'm confident: what about your confidence in UKIP "simply taking" votes from Labour? That's quite a lot of confidence in a party who actually lost 50% of their MPs at the last election, whose leadership and general organisation since the election has been absolutely fucking pisspoor, and whose ability to campaign on anything other than one issue is under scrutiny. If Nuttall pulls it off, then I'd personally rank it as being a far greater shock than Trump becoming White House head honcho based on UKIP having some financial difficulties and not having a real media guru like Bannon in their ranks. 

    So believe me, good sir, you might try to claim that I'm backing Labour and have some bizarre belief in them being successful. It's simply pointing out that UKIP overturning Labour goes against history and is not as simple as you think it will be. As ever, I am backing nobody in this. I don't wave flags for a particular team. It's far more fun looking at history and available data. 



    I think UKIP will get more votes from  right-leaning folk, and  existing labour voters
    It's interesting to note that leavers still voted for labour locally, but we haven't seen that put to test for an MP's seat - which I think is a very different scenario, EU and immigration is not something local councillors can fix
    Who were the extra voters in the referendum, what was their leave/stay ratio, any idea?

    I've been very sceptical about Corbyn's appeal to young voters
    The fact that he has many young campaigners around him does not prove anything of course
    I can't see why people  assume he naturally attracts younger voters
    a lazy search just now turned this up:
    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/09/24/labour-members-exit-poll-corbyn-wins-all-except-yo/
    which says that, in the labour party itself,  18-24 was the only group that voted against Corbyn in 2016

    UKIP are of course, a rabble of  oddballs and have no consistency, and few  stars. 
    Your comments about them are nearly perfectly applicable to the Labour party too though
    "a party who actually lost 50% of their MPs at the last election, whose leadership and general organisation since the election has been absolutely fucking pisspoor"
    Going from  2 to 1 MP  makes a comparison hard really, since  those 2 were from defections
    The question is about overall vote share - UKIP gained  9.5% of the vote in  2015, that is massive

    Anyway, I've only seen Nuttall on TV  2-3 times. Frankly he seems brighter than Corbyn,  I doubt if he's as  clever as Farage though
    He is one of the (presumably few)  more competent UKIP  politicians
    Is there anything  about him that  would repel  leave voters in  Stoke?

    You're correct though - it's complex, I just think that an upset is very possible, could be good for labour to get it now rather than in 2020

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  • FretwiredFretwired Frets: 24601
    edited January 2017
    I think UKIP will do well. I attend and run a number of business networks and before the referendum I'd have said it was 60% to 40% in favour of remain.  I think that's shifted to over 50% in favour of leave now based on surveys we've done. That can be partly explained by the fact we voted leave (I'm not sure everyone told the truth prior to the referendum) and by the aggressive stance taken by the EU and so called 'elite' (my catch-all for the likes of Blair and Branson) post Brexit vote.

    The one thing I have seen is a hardening views against immigration. I think post referendum people are feeling they can voice opinions on immigration that they couldn't do 18 months ago.

    Labour is in a mess - one of the areas I cover is a Labour stronghold and when you get traditional Labour voters saying they won't vote for Corbyn then you know they're in trouble. I'll stick my neck out and say narrow UKIP win. Paul Nuttal is working class and not a slippery ex-Tory boy like Farage. I think he could win as the small Tory vote will switch to him plus some Labour supporters. I also predict a low turn out with many Labour voters staying away which is a good way to show disapproval of the leadership without voting for the opposition.

    A UKIP win could spell the end of Corbyn which may also motivate some Labour voters to switch to UKIP for this unimportant by-election and so humiliate him.

    Remember, it's easier to criticise than create!
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  • GassageGassage Frets: 30826
    edited January 2017
    Fretwired said:
    I think UKIP will do well.

    A UKIP win could spell the end of Corbyn which may also motivate some Labour voters to switch to UKIP for this unimportant by-election and so humiliate him.
    When I was a kid, I never thought that BNP and National Front would ever be serious parties.

    AFAIC, UKIP is another name for National Front.

    *An Official Foo-Approved guitarist since Sept 2023.

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  • FretwiredFretwired Frets: 24601
    Gassage said:
    Fretwired said:
    I think UKIP will do well.

    A UKIP win could spell the end of Corbyn which may also motivate some Labour voters to switch to UKIP for this unimportant by-election and so humiliate him.
    When I was a kid, I never thought that BNP and National Front would ever be serious parties.

    AFAIC, UKIP is another name for National Front.
    Not really. The NF wanted to deport all immigrants, even people who'd be born here. That's not in UKIP's manifesto. UKIP are the nasty right of the Tory party. If they were the new NF then groups like Britain First wouldn't be flourishing.

    Remember, it's easier to criticise than create!
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  • GassageGassage Frets: 30826
    @fretwired So Martin Heale wasn't a NF'er? Farage, who used to sign himself NFNF at school?

    Sorry, leopards and spots.

    *An Official Foo-Approved guitarist since Sept 2023.

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  • FretwiredFretwired Frets: 24601
    Gassage said:
    @fretwired So Martin Heale wasn't a NF'er? Farage, who used to sign himself NFNF at school?

    Sorry, leopards and spots.
    Oh come on. I was a commie at school - death to the rich and all that shite. I even listened to some dodgy music .. the world moves on. And if I recall Martin Heale was a member in his teens but quit and hasn't had anything to do with far right-wing politics for over 30 years. UKIP has a rule that ex-Nat Front people can't be members but decided due to the length of time and stupidity of youth to turn a blind eye in his case.

    Corbyn got up to some strange things with his anti Jewish stance in the 70s, Harman and PIE, the Bullingdon boys - we end up with a government made up of vicars and bishops.

    Remember, it's easier to criticise than create!
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  • GassageGassage Frets: 30826
    Fretwired said:
    Gassage said:
    @fretwired So Martin Heale wasn't a NF'er? Farage, who used to sign himself NFNF at school?

    Sorry, leopards and spots.
    Oh come on. I was a commie at school - death to the rich and all that shite. I even listened to some dodgy music .. the world moves on. And if I recall Martin Heale was a member in his teens but quit and hasn't had anything to do with far right-wing politics for over 30 years. UKIP has a rule that ex-Nat Front people can't be members but decided due to the length of time and stupidity of youth to turn a blind eye in his case.

    Corbyn got up to some strange things with his anti Jewish stance in the 70s, Harman and PIE, the Bullingdon boys - we end up with a government made up of vicars and bishops.
    It is a racist party. Fact.

    *An Official Foo-Approved guitarist since Sept 2023.

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  • GassageGassage Frets: 30826
    edited January 2017
    One other thing; if May wants to negotiate in America, she needs to get her gerbil teeth sorted.

    If she had a blue one she'd have a snooker set.

    *An Official Foo-Approved guitarist since Sept 2023.

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  • mellowsunmellowsun Frets: 2422
    Gassage said:
    One other thing; if May wants to negotiate in America, she needs to get her gerbil teeth sorted.

    If she had a blue one she'd have a snooker set.
    I've never noticed her teeth - what's the problem with them? Perfect neon white teeth look phony
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  • GassageGassage Frets: 30826
    mellowsun said:
    Gassage said:
    One other thing; if May wants to negotiate in America, she needs to get her gerbil teeth sorted.

    If she had a blue one she'd have a snooker set.
    I've never noticed her teeth - what's the problem with them? Perfect neon white teeth look phony
    Gerbil.


    *An Official Foo-Approved guitarist since Sept 2023.

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  • SporkySporky Frets: 27572
    Fretwired said:
    I attend and run a number of business networks
    Really? You've never mentioned that before, except at every opportunity when you need to back up your personal opinions with an unverifiable source.

    Citation, as the kids say, needed.
    "[Sporky] brings a certain vibe and dignity to the forum."
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  • mellowsunmellowsun Frets: 2422
    Fretwired said:
     I attend and run a number of business networks 

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  • RockerRocker Frets: 4943
    A so called 'hard border' between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland seems very likely as a result of Brexit.  Yet there is a legally binding agreement between the UK, Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland called the 'Good Friday Agreement'.  This agreement has been and is supported by the EU.  What is going to happen to that agreement?

    If a fudge over that agreement is worked out, in which the agreement remains in place after the UK exit from the EU, another can of worms could be opened if Scotland felt that it is better off being a member of the EU and out of the UK.  This is pure speculation by me but difficulties must be apparent to everyone if Scotland decides to go it alone.

    But my main point is that the Good Friday Agreement is going to provide serious difficulties for the negotiating teams.  The consequences of getting this wrong are too terrible to think about.
    Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. [Albert Einstein]

    Nil Satis Nisi Optimum

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  • FretwiredFretwired Frets: 24601
    edited January 2017
    Sporky said:
    Fretwired said:
    I attend and run a number of business networks
    Really? You've never mentioned that before, except at every opportunity when you need to back up your personal opinions with an unverifiable source.

    Citation, as the kids say, needed.
    Yawn .. I don't make things up. You can Google me if you like but Hell a cheap Sporky shot beats all. Have anything to add to the debate?

    I'm running a Brexit debate in June for 100+ businesses in Herts with some government ministers. If anyone wants to come let me know and I'll pay for your ticket ..

    Here's one event I organised ...

    http://www.biz4biz.org/blog/biz4biz-connexions-eu-debate-great-success/


    Remember, it's easier to criticise than create!
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  • I think UKIP will get more votes from  right-leaning folk, and  existing labour voters
    It's interesting to note that leavers still voted for labour locally, but we haven't seen that put to test for an MP's seat - which I think is a very different scenario, EU and immigration is not something local councillors can fix
    Who were the extra voters in the referendum, what was their leave/stay ratio, any idea?

    I've been very sceptical about Corbyn's appeal to young voters
    The fact that he has many young campaigners around him does not prove anything of course
    I can't see why people  assume he naturally attracts younger voters
    a lazy search just now turned this up:
    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/09/24/labour-members-exit-poll-corbyn-wins-all-except-yo/
    which says that, in the labour party itself,  18-24 was the only group that voted against Corbyn in 2016

    UKIP are of course, a rabble of  oddballs and have no consistency, and few  stars. 
    Your comments about them are nearly perfectly applicable to the Labour party too though
    "a party who actually lost 50% of their MPs at the last election, whose leadership and general organisation since the election has been absolutely fucking pisspoor"
    Going from  2 to 1 MP  makes a comparison hard really, since  those 2 were from defections
    The question is about overall vote share - UKIP gained  9.5% of the vote in  2015, that is massive

    Anyway, I've only seen Nuttall on TV  2-3 times. Frankly he seems brighter than Corbyn,  I doubt if he's as  clever as Farage though
    He is one of the (presumably few)  more competent UKIP  politicians
    Is there anything  about him that  would repel  leave voters in  Stoke?

    You're correct though - it's complex, I just think that an upset is very possible, could be good for labour to get it now rather than in 2020

    I can't recall seeing any data on who the extra voters were in the referendum nor how they went with their X. I know for a fact that the ward I clerked was about a third up on voting numbers compared to the mayoral/PPC/local elections that took place a month earlier. Many of the faces who turned up for the referendum vote I recognised from the May vote. Those I didn't were mostly people in their late middle years. The student/young person vote was pretty consistent across both elections going by the voter registration lists (as a side note, every time I have clerked we've run bets on who can get closest to the final voting number by 10pm. I'm glad to say I won the money both times last year!). 

    Totally agree that we haven't seen it tested for an MP seat. EU and immigration aren't local domestic issues. What would be the litmus test for whether the EURef energised people and managed to sustain the interest will be the next round of MEP elections to my mind. Historically we haven't been interested...

    http://www.ukpolitical.info/european-parliament-election-turnout.htm

    If the electorate aren't arsed about Europe at MEP level, then I suspect Europe issues won't be at the forefront of their thinking when it comes to voting for domestic politicians. 

    The YouGov article you linked to is interesting but it should be pointed out that this was only surveying Labour members and not registered supporters. It is also pertinent to point this out from the same article:

    "However, it should be noted that the samples for 18-24 year old members and Scots are actually two of the smallest sample sizes in the survey and should be treated with caution."

    YouGov failed spectacularly in the General Election to get the right result and they didn't post out cautions on their polls then. That they do so on this one does mean that the figures should be treated with a decent modicum of caution. 

    I've seen Corbyn several times now at rallies and have attended events in my life both as a voter and in a working capacity with ministers, high up political bods, mayors on both sides of the Atlantic, and others. It is undeniable that Corbyn's supporters are a bloody curious mix. They are the flipside of the UKIP fruitcakes, far more quinoa involved. But it's also undeniable from simply looking at the people around me and comparing Labour meetings I attended purely as a spectator rather than supporter in Miliband's era to the Corbyn era that there are far more young people going now and getting involved at a grassroots level. 

    Nuttall is a decent speaker (that said, so was Diane James and she got absolutely shat on by certain party members). He's combative, that's for sure and he's generally well briefed on subjects. He seldom trips over his words. The areas he should worry about are the NHS as he's all for more privatisation and his views on abortion. He is openly Catholic, a belief system which leads to him calling for sex education to be scrapped for under 11s and his views on abortion. 

    Where Nuttall will face something new is that he will be under scrutiny for the first time. He will make gaffes, all politicians do, but the hallmark of Farage was how he handled them. 

    It'll be a damn interesting by-election, that's for sure. 







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  • Fretwired said:
    I think UKIP will do well. I attend and run a number of business networks and before the referendum I'd have said it was 60% to 40% in favour of remain.  I think that's shifted to over 50% in favour of leave now based on surveys we've done. That can be partly explained by the fact we voted leave (I'm not sure everyone told the truth prior to the referendum) and by the aggressive stance taken by the EU and so called 'elite' (my catch-all for the likes of Blair and Branson) post Brexit vote.

    The one thing I have seen is a hardening views against immigration. I think post referendum people are feeling they can voice opinions on immigration that they couldn't do 18 months ago.

    Labour is in a mess - one of the areas I cover is a Labour stronghold and when you get traditional Labour voters saying they won't vote for Corbyn then you know they're in trouble. I'll stick my neck out and say narrow UKIP win. Paul Nuttal is working class and not a slippery ex-Tory boy like Farage. I think he could win as the small Tory vote will switch to him plus some Labour supporters. I also predict a low turn out with many Labour voters staying away which is a good way to show disapproval of the leadership without voting for the opposition.

    A UKIP win could spell the end of Corbyn which may also motivate some Labour voters to switch to UKIP for this unimportant by-election and so humiliate him.

    I agree that there have been some freeing of voices since the election. Definitely a case in some people of being resigned to it so they are supporting it now because there's no other choice and I again agree on immigration. I've said several times before why I wasn't in favour of how immigration was now based on what I saw in Canada a decade earlier (large numbers of people mean you need infrastructure investment. Canada didn't do that, it brought people in and slashed services. A real mess in some parts of Toronto and some poverty I saw out there that beats anything I've seen in this country). 

    Labour's chances depend entirely on the candidate they choose. I hope they go with Dr Hitchin. 

    I don't think a UKIP win will signal the end of Corbyn. I believe he'd use a defeat as evidence that the party needs to solidify around him. If he were to go, another leadership election would only split the party further. Much like Brexit, it's time for the party to face up to the reality. He's been elected and so members have to go with it or fuck off. Simple as. 



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  • SporkySporky Frets: 27572
    Fretwired said:

    Have anything to add to the debate?
    Yes - I just did, but I think it went over your head.

    Posting opinions is absolutely fine, obviously. That's what forums are for. But if you're going to "back up" claims you need to do so with actual evidence. It's not that I think you make it up, it's what you present in support of your opinions is unverifiable - anyone could do it to support any position, so it doesn't add anything to the debate. It therefore comes across as a bit "Silence, children, you know nothing!".

    I've not posted much here because I don't fancy myself an economist, political analyst and trade agreement specialist unlike most people here... but some of it makes for interesting reading.
    "[Sporky] brings a certain vibe and dignity to the forum."
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  • ToneControlToneControl Frets: 11789


    I can't recall seeing any data on who the extra voters were in the referendum nor how they went with their X. I know for a fact that the ward I clerked was about a third up on voting numbers compared to the mayoral/PPC/local elections that took place a month earlier. Many of the faces who turned up for the referendum vote I recognised from the May vote. Those I didn't were mostly people in their late middle years. The student/young person vote was pretty consistent across both elections going by the voter registration lists (as a side note, every time I have clerked we've run bets on who can get closest to the final voting number by 10pm. I'm glad to say I won the money both times last year!). 

    Totally agree that we haven't seen it tested for an MP seat. EU and immigration aren't local domestic issues. What would be the litmus test for whether the EURef energised people and managed to sustain the interest will be the next round of MEP elections to my mind. Historically we haven't been interested...

    http://www.ukpolitical.info/european-parliament-election-turnout.htm

    If the electorate aren't arsed about Europe at MEP level, then I suspect Europe issues won't be at the forefront of their thinking when it comes to voting for domestic politicians. 

    The YouGov article you linked to is interesting but it should be pointed out that this was only surveying Labour members and not registered supporters. It is also pertinent to point this out from the same article:

    "However, it should be noted that the samples for 18-24 year old members and Scots are actually two of the smallest sample sizes in the survey and should be treated with caution."

    YouGov failed spectacularly in the General Election to get the right result and they didn't post out cautions on their polls then. That they do so on this one does mean that the figures should be treated with a decent modicum of caution. 

    I've seen Corbyn several times now at rallies and have attended events in my life both as a voter and in a working capacity with ministers, high up political bods, mayors on both sides of the Atlantic, and others. It is undeniable that Corbyn's supporters are a bloody curious mix. They are the flipside of the UKIP fruitcakes, far more quinoa involved. But it's also undeniable from simply looking at the people around me and comparing Labour meetings I attended purely as a spectator rather than supporter in Miliband's era to the Corbyn era that there are far more young people going now and getting involved at a grassroots level. 

    Nuttall is a decent speaker (that said, so was Diane James and she got absolutely shat on by certain party members). He's combative, that's for sure and he's generally well briefed on subjects. He seldom trips over his words. The areas he should worry about are the NHS as he's all for more privatisation and his views on abortion. He is openly Catholic, a belief system which leads to him calling for sex education to be scrapped for under 11s and his views on abortion. 

    Where Nuttall will face something new is that he will be under scrutiny for the first time. He will make gaffes, all politicians do, but the hallmark of Farage was how he handled them. 

    It'll be a damn interesting by-election, that's for sure. 


    all sounds reasonable

    I was surprised to see Nuttall  bring catholicism into his  "sales package" so much,  50% are catholic in Liverpool,  but anywhere else it's 10% max. I thought he'd be sticking to  the main  UKIP themes, and also  adding risk to start  talking about the NHS
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  • FretwiredFretwired Frets: 24601
    Sporky said:
    Fretwired said:

    Have anything to add to the debate?
    Yes - I just did, but I think it went over your head.

    Posting opinions is absolutely fine, obviously. That's what forums are for. But if you're going to "back up" claims you need to do so with actual evidence. It's not that I think you make it up, it's what you present in support of your opinions is unverifiable - anyone could do it to support any position, so it doesn't add anything to the debate. It therefore comes across as a bit "Silence, children, you know nothing!".

    I've not posted much here because I don't fancy myself an economist, political analyst and trade agreement specialist unlike most people here... but some of it makes for interesting reading.
    @Sporky .. OK I apologise if I get the wrong end of the stick. It's not always easy to back things up. If you chat to somebody who offers you an opinion under the Chatham House Rule you can't go around quoting him/her. I just post things as I think they might be interesting - call it anecdotal - the samples are too small to be meaningful, but they give an indication. And for the record the BBC does it all the time, especially on R4 - "I was speaking to a senior EU diplomat and she said blah. blah blah" And the end of the day its just an opinion - take it, leave it or ignore it.

    Remember, it's easier to criticise than create!
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  • all sounds reasonable

    I was surprised to see Nuttall  bring catholicism into his  "sales package" so much,  50% are catholic in Liverpool,  but anywhere else it's 10% max. I thought he'd be sticking to  the main  UKIP themes, and also  adding risk to start  talking about the NHS
    It's always been there. Catholic education from what I remember but he swings about a bit. COnsider the article below from March 2015:

    http://www.thetablet.co.uk/news/1834/0/ukip-deputy-leader-says-party-in-line-with-catholic-thought-

    Earlier in the year, it was reported in an interview in the NS that he wasn't a churchgoer. 

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/01/paul-nuttall-could-i-lead-ukip-yeah-i-think-i-could






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