French Election Result

mellowsun

Fretwired said:

He wants to 'scalp' the City of London and move 20,000+ bankers to Paris. 

That's up to the banks, not him. Those jobs will move for sure once May wins the election and delivers the hard Brexit that her supporters want. Nothing to do with Macron.

Fretwired

mellowsun said:

Fretwired said:

He wants to 'scalp' the City of London and move 20,000+ bankers to Paris. 

That's up to the banks, not him. Those jobs will move for sure once May wins the election and delivers the hard Brexit that her supporters want. Nothing to do with Macron.

A lot to do with Macron. The most likely destination is Dublin or Frankfurt. France has uncompetitive labour laws and tax regimes, especially with bonuses. If you look at the US banks saying they are moving staff they never mention Paris. Macron wants to make France more like the UK - he will face opposition though.

mellowsun

Fretwired said:

A lot to do with Macron. The most likely destination is Dublin or Frankfurt. France has uncompetitive labour laws and tax regimes, especially with bonuses. If you look at the US banks saying they are moving staff they never mention Paris. Macron wants to make France more like the UK - he will face opposition though.

OK - I was thinking more of his influence on the jobs moving rather than where they will move to.

I'm not sure he really wants to make France more like the UK at present (Brexit basket case about to hemorrhage jobs and talent)

HAL9000

Hoof said:

Obviously the better result but they didn't have great set of options in the end.

A neo nazi vs a Rothschild banker.

Is this the way of things nowadays? In the US the options were a crook vs a liar. The UK options frankly don't look great either.

Snap

mellowsun said:

That's up to the banks, not him. Those jobs will move for sure once May wins the election and delivers the hard Brexit that her supporters want. Nothing to do with Macron.

I support May, I don't want a hard Brexit. I'd rather stay in, as would most of parliament. The whole hard Brexit thing is BS, spun by the media. Just why would she want to do something that would jeopardise the City when it is roughly 11% of our GDP?

The answer is that she is negotiating, not conceding. You don't give your cards away when you sit down at the table to bargain. Hard brexit is total media hype.

There is already a work round for the banks anyway, whether in the EU or not. they won't leave London, especially if we start doing nice deals with other economies.

Hoof

HAL9000 said:

Hoof said:

Obviously the better result but they didn't have great set of options in the end.

A neo nazi vs a Rothschild banker.

Is this the way of things nowadays? In the US the options were a crook vs a liar. The UK options frankly don't look great either.

I rather think it is. The UK political establishment should thank their lucky stars that there isn't a powerful outsider who wants to take the reigns. 

Or maybe Murdoch has all the power he needs in this country.

holnrew

HAL9000 said:

Hoof said:

Obviously the better result but they didn't have great set of options in the end.

A neo nazi vs a Rothschild banker.

Is this the way of things nowadays? In the US the options were a crook vs a liar. The UK options frankly don't look great either.


I'd say they were both crooks and liars

siremoon

Fretwired said:

mellowsun said:

Fretwired said:

He wants to 'scalp' the City of London and move 20,000+ bankers to Paris. 

That's up to the banks, not him. Those jobs will move for sure once May wins the election and delivers the hard Brexit that her supporters want. Nothing to do with Macron.

A lot to do with Macron. The most likely destination is Dublin or Frankfurt. France has uncompetitive labour laws and tax regimes, especially with bonuses. If you look at the US banks saying they are moving staff they never mention Paris. Macron wants to make France more like the UK - he will face opposition though.

That's the thing that many commentators seem to be overlooking today.  Some of what he wants to do could stir up a Hornet's nest.

ICBM

Fretwired said:

They're not dominoes .. where are the white dots ... :-)

On the other sides .

mellowsun

Snap said:

mellowsun said:

That's up to the banks, not him. Those jobs will move for sure once May wins the election and delivers the hard Brexit that her supporters want. Nothing to do with Macron.

I support May, I don't want a hard Brexit. I'd rather stay in, as would most of parliament. The whole hard Brexit thing is BS, spun by the media. Just why would she want to do something that would jeopardise the City when it is roughly 11% of our GDP?

The answer is that she is negotiating, not conceding. You don't give your cards away when you sit down at the table to bargain. Hard brexit is total media hype.

There is already a work round for the banks anyway, whether in the EU or not. they won't leave London, especially if we start doing nice deals with other economies.

Manifesto commitments to ending the free movement of EU citizens, leaving the European single market and ending the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice sound like a pretty hard Brexit to me.

And insulting the people she will be negotiating with is not a great start to the process.

The unfortunate reality is that with the likes of May, Johnson and Davies at the negotiating table we are just as likely to crash out with no deal at all.

ICBM

mellowsun said:

Manifesto commitments to ending the free movement of EU citizens (snip) and ending the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice sound like a pretty hard Brexit to me.

These in particular are not new for her - along with leaving the ECHR - and why I don't believe she was ever a Remainer no matter what she said or some people seem to think. I think she was simply hiding her true belief while it would have been harmful to her ambition to reveal it - ie up until June 24th last year, when it was assumed that Remain would win. The cat's out of the bag now.

mellowsun said:

And insulting the people she will be negotiating with is not a great start to the process.

The unfortunate reality is that with the likes of May, Johnson and Davies at the negotiating table we are just as likely to crash out with no deal at all.

Which is what she intends.

Fretwired

ICBM said:

Fretwired said:

They're not dominoes .. where are the white dots ... :-)

On the other sides .

Er no .. the other sides have flags on (based on the UK brick) ... ;-)

Fretwired

ICBM said:

mellowsun said:

Manifesto commitments to ending the free movement of EU citizens (snip) and ending the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice sound like a pretty hard Brexit to me.

These in particular are not new for her - along with leaving the ECHR - and why I don't believe she was ever a Remainer no matter what she said or some people seem to think. I think she was simply hiding her true belief while it would have been harmful to her ambition to reveal it - ie up until June 24th last year, when it was assumed that Remain would win. The cat's out of the bag now.

mellowsun said:

And insulting the people she will be negotiating with is not a great start to the process.

The unfortunate reality is that with the likes of May, Johnson and Davies at the negotiating table we are just as likely to crash out with no deal at all.

Which is what she intends.

Evidence?

I think the Merkel and May have a broad deal in mind (Merkel referred to it as a different form of membership) .. we'll have a lot of shouting and pain before it gets aired (so people get fed up) as I think it will involve us paying large chunks of cash every year, a watered down form of free movement and disputes being dealt with by the ECJ. In return we get access to the free market and passporting rights.

ICBM

Fretwired said:

Evidence? 

The evidence is as I've consistently said, her opposition to several key aspects of the EU - not financial, but judicial - which is on record and has been for years, in contradiction to what she's usually said her position on the EU was. Which do you believe - what she said before the referendum when it looked like Remain would win and Cameron would still be PM, and it was wise to keep her powder dry for the sake of her career prospects - or what she actually advocated while Home Secretary and earlier, and what she appears to be doing now that she's free from the need to hide it?

If you look at the latter then it's clear that she has always been in favour of a hard Brexit. Also remember that during the referendum campaign she kept very quiet indeed - her sole intervention was to deny the Leave claim that a million Turks would have access to the UK - which was never true anyway and so there was no harm in saying so. You might be forgiven for thinking that she didn't actually want Remain to win…

Fretwired said:

Er no .. the other sides have flags on (based on the UK brick) ... ;-)

Er… no! The UK brick has fallen to the right with the dots facing down - but missed the French one, hence the point of the joke . The others are standing up with the dots facing away from us, as the UK one was.

Freebird

Hoof said:

jellyroll said:

Hoof said:

It wasn't really code at all, Macron did work for the the French Rothschild bank, who are are still a factor in Globalist economics, before he came into politics. There was no anti-semitic sentiment in my statement, I simply meant that he will be an puppet of the banks and corporations.

Because he once worked for a bank, he's now their puppet?

Well he comes to politics from banking. I'd be surprised if he wasn't.

Selected and fast tracked by Jacques Attali, Francois Enron and David de Rothschild.

mellowsun

Fretwired said:

I think the Merkel and May have a broad deal in mind (Merkel referred to it as a different form of membership) .. we'll have a lot of shouting and pain before it gets aired (so people get fed up) as I think it will involve us paying large chunks of cash every year, a watered down form of free movement and disputes being dealt with by the ECJ. In return we get access to the free market and passporting rights.

I admire your optimism but given what has been said so far, it seems unlikely, particularly on the paying large chunks of cash every year (how is that better than what we had before - Leave voters wouldn't stand for it).

May and her Brexit team have consistently said that they will not tolerate paying a large exit fee in return for access to the free market and will not tolerate free movement - they have promised to get immigration down to 5 figures. 

They have consistently said that exiting the single market is preferable to what they consider a bad deal. And May will never tolerate the UK being told what to do by the ECJ.

Also what you say above has little in common with the hard Brexit being demanded by Leave voters in areas of the UK that  have abandoned Labour because they support May's stance.

Business, starting with banking, is preparing for and gearing up to the reality of hard Brexit.

Fretwired

mellowsun said:

Fretwired said:

I think the Merkel and May have a broad deal in mind (Merkel referred to it as a different form of membership) .. we'll have a lot of shouting and pain before it gets aired (so people get fed up) as I think it will involve us paying large chunks of cash every year, a watered down form of free movement and disputes being dealt with by the ECJ. In return we get access to the free market and passporting rights.

I admire your optimism but given what has been said so far, it seems unlikely, particularly on the paying large chunks of cash every year (how is that better than what we had before - Leave voters wouldn't stand for it).

May and her Brexit team have consistently said that they will not tolerate paying a large exit fee in return for access to the free market and will not tolerate free movement - they have promised to get immigration down to 5 figures. 

They have consistently said that exiting the single market is preferable to what they consider a bad deal. And May will never tolerate the UK being told what to do by the ECJ.

Also what you say above has little in common with the hard Brexit being demanded by Leave voters in areas of the UK that  have abandoned Labour because they support May's stance.

Business, starting with banking, is preparing for and gearing up to the reality of hard Brexit.

Not quite. They have said they won't pay 60 billion Euros let alone 100 billion Euros, but that we will pay what's owed. It's not optimism - listen to the sane people in the EU. May's looking tough for the election on June 8 - nothing will happen until Merkel reclaims her throne later this year. Then watch ... I'll know more in a few weeks as I'm meeting some MPs/ministers for a briefing.

These are the people you need to listen to:

https://www.ft.com/content/d2fa5938-def7-11e6-86ac-f253db7791c6

Despite media reports to the contrary and widespread briefing about an ill-fated dinner held between Theresa May, UK prime minister, and Jean-Claude Juncker, president of the European Commission, I believe that a Brexit deal remains more likely than unlikely. There is more that unites the two sides than separates them and, regardless of what is said in the build-up to negotiations, a no-deal scenario would be a disaster for all.

Guy Verhofstadt - 7 May 2017

Link to article: https://www.ft.com/content/2494db66-31ae-11e7-9555-23ef563ecf9a


And issues for the EU:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/feb/01/eu-brexit-deal-city-leaked-report-european-parliament-article-50

Rocker

Fretwired said:

mellowsun said:

Fretwired said:

He wants to 'scalp' the City of London and move 20,000+ bankers to Paris. 

That's up to the banks, not him. Those jobs will move for sure once May wins the election and delivers the hard Brexit that her supporters want. Nothing to do with Macron.

A lot to do with Macron. The most likely destination is Dublin or Frankfurt. France has uncompetitive labour laws and tax regimes, especially with bonuses. If you look at the US banks saying they are moving staff they never mention Paris. Macron wants to make France more like the UK - he will face opposition though.

That is the issue.  It is logical that Banks who deal with EU countries would need to be located somewhere in the EU.

exocet

Rocker said:

Fretwired said:

mellowsun said:

Fretwired said:

He wants to 'scalp' the City of London and move 20,000+ bankers to Paris. 

That's up to the banks, not him. Those jobs will move for sure once May wins the election and delivers the hard Brexit that her supporters want. Nothing to do with Macron.

A lot to do with Macron. The most likely destination is Dublin or Frankfurt. France has uncompetitive labour laws and tax regimes, especially with bonuses. If you look at the US banks saying they are moving staff they never mention Paris. Macron wants to make France more like the UK - he will face opposition though.

That is the issue.  It is logical that Banks who deal with EU countries would need to be located somewhere in the EU.

I reckon Luxembourg will take a fair old chunk. They are building new headquarters at a rapid rate of knots in Kirchberg area and have quite a long standing history in finance....especially funds. Over the past 5 years, many global law firms have also established themselves with significant office presence....not your casual "serviced facility". Plenty of Chinese money sloshing around there as well plus they draw on commuting workforces from Belgium, France and Germany. 

ToneControl

I keep telling you all, it will be a hard breakfast

The EU cannot lose face
The next tory govt cannot hand over loads of cash, when one of the main points was to stop giving the EU cash
Therefore we default to WTO tariffs, and look to have perfectly normal trading arrangements with the EU - along with the other 3 non-EU G7 countries