Sell Tesla?

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  • danishbacondanishbacon Frets: 1481
    Buying on exec predictions is a bit like buying on a crystal ball. Just be sure to understand the distinction between speculation and investing. I would not want to be buying in as an investor anywhere near these prices. As a speculator, who knows, but @ToneControl seems to the maths right at the more sensible end of the market. I wonder if when all of the cash propped startups falter, whatever capital remains will flow towards the ‘cheap’ asset backed corps.   

    On a completely tangential note, I wonder if girls will be wooed when you rock up in a glorified self driving iPad on wheels? And quite frankly, Tesla’s are fugly, and suspect designed to have some resemblance to the founder himself. 
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  • ToneControlToneControl Frets: 9128
    BBBlues said:

    you need to look at assets on balance sheets as well as liabilties

    Daimler has €106m in liabilities, but €302m in assets

    Tesla has $27b liabilities, and $34b assets

    not such a rosy picture eh?
    I don't need to look at anything, I just find the Tesla bubble interesting. I'm not the one asking the question. Are you holding Tesla stock? Looking to buy Tesla stock? are you considering a short sell?

    I'm doing neither, you asked the question. Why?
    I don't own any, we were discussing it in the general thread. It is interesting, but not solely for academic reasons
    The theory is that if the bubble bursts for any of Tesla, Apple, Facebook, google, it could set of a domino effect with the other bubbles

    Its an interesting topic, and acts as stand out test case in terms of how the US markets and investors behave.

    The big 5 tech giants (Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Google) are driving the S&P500. Did you know that YTD those 5 have returned +35%, and the other 495 have delivered -5%... the weighted avg nets off to +2%.

    The US is an asset bubble, where many people's wealth is entirely dependent on over inflated asset prices which have very little relationship with actual earnings of stock. The Fed can only pump in so much cash to prop it up... once the market becomes unresponsive and immune to QE it will stall and a huge correction will occur. Might be a month, might be 5-10 years... but it will happen.

    The shift to conserving price rather than growth has already begun, just look at current gold and raw material prices.
    yep, none of my investments are in US stocks
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  • thebreezethebreeze Frets: 1713
    crunchman said:
    Danny1969 said:
    Although Graphene has seemed like vapourware for a good few years now they are now at the stage where they can produce it at a fraction of the original cost and it reasonably large quantities. There's already powerbanks available to buy which use graphene along with lithium. Now the extended capacity of the battery with a content of graphene isn't anything to get excited by, maybe 15 to  25% more for a given size but the extremely low resistance super conductor quality of graphene can reduce charge time without overheating by 2 thirds. 20 mins for a full charge on a power bank or phone battery rather than over an hour.
    Tesla are in a better position than anyway to exploit the properties of graphene into battery production and I think when they do their share price will rocket.  An electric car battery cell that can be charged in 20 minutes without excess heat or damage will be the end of range anxiety and electric cars sales will rocket.  
    That's all very well, but the charging infrastructure won't support that.  To charge a 100kWh battery in 20 minutes would need around 6500A at UK mains voltage.  You will be swapping the excess heat in the battery to excess heat in the mains cables.  Higher voltages would decrease the current, but introduce other problems.  It's highly unlikely that we are ever going get to the point where you can safely charge a car battery with decent range in a reasonable time 

    Hydrogen is the future.  Battery power might work in the UK but the distances here are relatively short.  For the kind of distances in a lot of other countries, it's a non starter - especially for freight.

    Hydrogen would solve a lot of other problems.  There are massive problems with the supply of lithium and cobalt for batteries.

    Hydrogen also solves the problem of how to store intermittent energy from renewables like solar and wind.  If we have big banks of battery on the electricity network, it will be expensive as they will need to be replaced on a regular basis.  Batteries have a finite life span.  If you get three years out of a phone battery, you are doing very well.  The ones they use on the mains will probably have better lifespan that that, but it will still be a huge issue.  It will be very expensive with the lithium and cobalt supply issue

    Hydrogen would also mean that you wouldn't need to spend vast amounts of money on installing millions of car charging points, and even more on top upgrading the mains network to cope with the high currents.

    Batteries might be part of the mix, but hydrogen is going to be the backbone of transport - especially as it will work in countries without electricity infrastructure.

    For that reason, it looks to me that Tesla is grossly overvalued.
    I agree with you and I think it's only a matter of time before everyone cottons on to the fact that hydrogen will be more efficient.  However, there will still be issues around power storage in hydrogen fuel cells rather than batteries and there will still be the need for massive investment in hydrogen cell refuelling points, although I imagine today's petrol stations can be easily adapted once the will is there.
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  • Danny1969Danny1969 Frets: 6309
    crunchman said:
    Danny1969 said:
    Although Graphene has seemed like vapourware for a good few years now they are now at the stage where they can produce it at a fraction of the original cost and it reasonably large quantities. There's already powerbanks available to buy which use graphene along with lithium. Now the extended capacity of the battery with a content of graphene isn't anything to get excited by, maybe 15 to  25% more for a given size but the extremely low resistance super conductor quality of graphene can reduce charge time without overheating by 2 thirds. 20 mins for a full charge on a power bank or phone battery rather than over an hour.
    Tesla are in a better position than anyway to exploit the properties of graphene into battery production and I think when they do their share price will rocket.  An electric car battery cell that can be charged in 20 minutes without excess heat or damage will be the end of range anxiety and electric cars sales will rocket.  
    That's all very well, but the charging infrastructure won't support that.  To charge a 100kWh battery in 20 minutes would need around 6500A at UK mains voltage.  You will be swapping the excess heat in the battery to excess heat in the mains cables.  Higher voltages would decrease the current, but introduce other problems.  It's highly unlikely that we are ever going get to the point where you can safely charge a car battery with decent range in a reasonable time 

    Hydrogen is the future.  Battery power might work in the UK but the distances here are relatively short.  For the kind of distances in a lot of other countries, it's a non starter - especially for freight.

    Hydrogen would solve a lot of other problems.  There are massive problems with the supply of lithium and cobalt for batteries.

    Hydrogen also solves the problem of how to store intermittent energy from renewables like solar and wind.  If we have big banks of battery on the electricity network, it will be expensive as they will need to be replaced on a regular basis.  Batteries have a finite life span.  If you get three years out of a phone battery, you are doing very well.  The ones they use on the mains will probably have better lifespan that that, but it will still be a huge issue.  It will be very expensive with the lithium and cobalt supply issue

    Hydrogen would also mean that you wouldn't need to spend vast amounts of money on installing millions of car charging points, and even more on top upgrading the mains network to cope with the high currents.

    Batteries might be part of the mix, but hydrogen is going to be the backbone of transport - especially as it will work in countries without electricity infrastructure.

    For that reason, it looks to me that Tesla is grossly overvalued.
    Your maths are well out mate, like by a very long way. Maybe a typo ?

    I did look in to hydrogen cells the last time this come up and it is a great solution for sited vehicles like buses it's not so great for personally owned cars. Plus you need fossil fuel to make hydrogen cheaply and the process contributes to global warming. Using electrolysis doesn't but that;s expensive at the moment. 

    I don's agree with your battery statement, my 9 year old laptop is on it;s original battery - the very same 1856 cells used in a Tesla battery. The construction is very different from a phone battery which is basically a Lipo sandwich with no individual  control or vote out of bad or poor performing cells. 

    Who knows what;s gonna happen but if I had any money to invest I would invest in Tesla but would expect a long and rocky ride not a quick profit. 
     
    www.2020studios.co.uk 
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  • BarnezyBarnezy Frets: 1528
    edited July 2020


    If you try to second guess a bubble, you'll still be in it when it pops. 

    If you're happy with you're gain, take it and put it somewhere else. Never regret a gain that comes from hidesight. 

    There are a lot of bubbles at the moment. 
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  • ToneControlToneControl Frets: 9128
    Danny1969 said:
    crunchman said:
    Danny1969 said:
    Although Graphene has seemed like vapourware for a good few years now they are now at the stage where they can produce it at a fraction of the original cost and it reasonably large quantities. There's already powerbanks available to buy which use graphene along with lithium. Now the extended capacity of the battery with a content of graphene isn't anything to get excited by, maybe 15 to  25% more for a given size but the extremely low resistance super conductor quality of graphene can reduce charge time without overheating by 2 thirds. 20 mins for a full charge on a power bank or phone battery rather than over an hour.
    Tesla are in a better position than anyway to exploit the properties of graphene into battery production and I think when they do their share price will rocket.  An electric car battery cell that can be charged in 20 minutes without excess heat or damage will be the end of range anxiety and electric cars sales will rocket.  
    That's all very well, but the charging infrastructure won't support that.  To charge a 100kWh battery in 20 minutes would need around 6500A at UK mains voltage.  You will be swapping the excess heat in the battery to excess heat in the mains cables.  Higher voltages would decrease the current, but introduce other problems.  It's highly unlikely that we are ever going get to the point where you can safely charge a car battery with decent range in a reasonable time 

    Hydrogen is the future.  Battery power might work in the UK but the distances here are relatively short.  For the kind of distances in a lot of other countries, it's a non starter - especially for freight.

    Hydrogen would solve a lot of other problems.  There are massive problems with the supply of lithium and cobalt for batteries.

    Hydrogen also solves the problem of how to store intermittent energy from renewables like solar and wind.  If we have big banks of battery on the electricity network, it will be expensive as they will need to be replaced on a regular basis.  Batteries have a finite life span.  If you get three years out of a phone battery, you are doing very well.  The ones they use on the mains will probably have better lifespan that that, but it will still be a huge issue.  It will be very expensive with the lithium and cobalt supply issue

    Hydrogen would also mean that you wouldn't need to spend vast amounts of money on installing millions of car charging points, and even more on top upgrading the mains network to cope with the high currents.

    Batteries might be part of the mix, but hydrogen is going to be the backbone of transport - especially as it will work in countries without electricity infrastructure.

    For that reason, it looks to me that Tesla is grossly overvalued.
    Your maths are well out mate, like by a very long way. Maybe a typo ?

    I did look in to hydrogen cells the last time this come up and it is a great solution for sited vehicles like buses it's not so great for personally owned cars. Plus you need fossil fuel to make hydrogen cheaply and the process contributes to global warming. Using electrolysis doesn't but that;s expensive at the moment. 

    I don's agree with your battery statement, my 9 year old laptop is on it;s original battery - the very same 1856 cells used in a Tesla battery. The construction is very different from a phone battery which is basically a Lipo sandwich with no individual  control or vote out of bad or poor performing cells. 

    Who knows what;s gonna happen but if I had any money to invest I would invest in Tesla but would expect a long and rocky ride not a quick profit. 
     
    you'd need to decide whether the price already went up enough (or too much) already, it's not enough to believe that they have the future market share in a hot technology, it's whether the current price is less now than it should be worth in the future, which frankly looks extremely unlikely mathematically
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  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Frets: 12238
    The thing Tesla leads in is the centralised AI autopilot software. They view the cars as simply vehicles that carry the software. Driver interventions when using the autopilot are recorded and uploaded to Tesla so the AI learns and improves.

    Tesla will soon get the software to a point where it can transition from driver assistance to full safe driverless automation. You will call your car via your phone to come and pick you up and take you to your location without any human intervention reliably and safely.

    Passing driverless regulation in China and US will be protracted but may get there, it has to at some point, Europe will be harder and much more resistant.

    Once the driverless genie is out of the bottle then it's growth will be exponential.


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  • danishbacondanishbacon Frets: 1481
    The thing Tesla leads in is the centralised AI autopilot software. They view the cars as simply vehicles that carry the software. Driver interventions when using the autopilot are recorded and uploaded to Tesla so the AI learns and improves.

    Tesla will soon get the software to a point where it can transition from driver assistance to full safe driverless automation. You will call your car via your phone to come and pick you up and take you to your location without any human intervention reliably and safely.

    Passing driverless regulation in China and US will be protracted but may get there, it has to at some point, Europe will be harder and much more resistant.

    Once the driverless genie is out of the bottle then it's growth will be exponential.

    I don’t buy it. Shouldn’t we also have some flying pods carrying us around or is that just in specialised markets like Dubai?

    How exactly is an autotesla supposed to behave when an asshole hauling cooking oil barrels behind their c class Mercedes swerves in front of you as you careen at 90mph on the middle lane in the Autobhan. Does it swerve itself into the front of the incoming left lane Audi or does it slam on its brakes causing the polish lorry who decided to overtake behind you to L slide? Does It do some combination of both as the situation evolves? Can it detect the loose bus wheel cover dancing across the lanes in front of you? Are you going to trust your life, and your family’s to Silicon Valley tech vanity projects? Why are pilots still landing planes?

    Since we’re looking into crystal balls, until the nature of driving changes fundamentally, ie, all are content with their self driving bubbles. I don’t see it. I see it maybe being useful as an assistance tool, like cruise control, self parking etc (and even then probably still not without risk). Buying Tesla stock, at these levels, on these dreams is pure speculation, simple as. 
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  • ToneControlToneControl Frets: 9128
    edited July 2020
    The thing Tesla leads in is the centralised AI autopilot software. They view the cars as simply vehicles that carry the software. Driver interventions when using the autopilot are recorded and uploaded to Tesla so the AI learns and improves.

    Tesla will soon get the software to a point where it can transition from driver assistance to full safe driverless automation. You will call your car via your phone to come and pick you up and take you to your location without any human intervention reliably and safely.

    Passing driverless regulation in China and US will be protracted but may get there, it has to at some point, Europe will be harder and much more resistant.

    Once the driverless genie is out of the bottle then it's growth will be exponential.

    this was news 6 years ago, and all the car makers are doing this
    https://www.thefretboard.co.uk/discussion/11880/

    Tell me something that Tesla has that other companies don't have
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  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Frets: 12238
    edited July 2020
    Lou Shipley, Harvard lecturer in technology sales suggests the following points sets Tesla apart from the competition from an article in Feb 2020:

    "As I see it, Tesla currently does at least four things better than all the auto makers:

    1. It develops cars as it would a software product.

    Tesla builds cars by developing software on unique hardware, much in the way Apple develops the iPhone or Microsoft leverages Intel chips and Dell PCs.  This enables the company to improve its cars’ software functionality every few weeks. This is in sharp contrast to the traditional auto industry model where the product is the same for as long as you drive it.

    With fewer parts, the total cost of Tesla ownership is significantly lower than an internal combustion vehicle. There’s no need for expensive oil changes, tune ups, replacing mufflers, and the like. The automakers, who derive significant profitability from their service businesses, know this.

    2. It simplifies the buying process, putting the consumer in control.

    Tesla doesn’t advertise in the Sunday newspaper or put ads on the radio. Instead is uses the classic software “inbound” sales model: They know consumers are smart and will find them. They understand the buyers’ journey very well.

    Buying a Tesla is relatively simple: You go online, pick a model, add your features, place your deposit, and schedule pickup. Done. The last time I bought a car from a well-known Japanese automaker, the buying process was miserable from start to finish. I had to talk to a sales rep who would not give me a straight price and kept scurrying back to a manager, who wrote down successive new numbers before we came to a deal. When I picked up the car, the salesperson begged me to give him a 10 on the Net Promoter Score survey so he could get his bonus. I much prefer controlling the experience myself.

    3. It leverages its prowess in battery technology to minimize the total cost of ownership over the vehicle’s lifetime.

    Tesla’s battery-powered vehicles are significantly simpler than their internal combustion competitors. By some estimates they have significantly fewer parts per vehicle — around 20 — versus the 2,000 in internal combustion engines. This simplicity dramatically reduces the consumers total cost of ownership. Tesla has recently acquired battery manufacturing companies and will incorporate new kinds of battery-related technologies into its vehicles, which could further reduce cost of ownership. While other automakers are also rushing to acquire the right electric battery expertise, they will still be playing catch up as this market grows.

    4. It attaches itself to the predominant market trend of the day — going green to reduce global warming.

    From a marketing point of view, Tesla already has a big advantage in some categories. Who wouldn’t want to own a car that creates no pollution, eliminates visits to gas stations, and is truly green?  Other automakers are going to be playing catch up on this issue for a long time.

    Given this situation, what is the auto industry to do? Traditional car makers will be offering a growing range of electric vehicles in 2020 — but they aren’t necessarily software cars. They are often the cars you’re used to, fitted with electric motors.

    To be sure, there are security risks with software cars, as with any kind of connectivity. But Tesla could expand its leadership role by modeling how to manage those risks effectively.

    Traditional automakers must now imagine how to become software companies, which, given how far behind they are, means they will have to do what legacy software companies do when startups disrupt their core markets — they buy competitors to consolidate the market. We should watch for this activity, because it is likely about to start in earnest."


    and VW CEO takes them seriously:

    https://electrek.co/2019/10/28/tesla-serious-competitor-vw-ceo-as-defends-electric-automaker/


    Personally, I'm excited but the innovation but I have no real care for whether the Tesla stock price is overcooked or correctly valued, they are an industry disruptor and that's a good thing. Whether they can be anything other than that is the speculation and only time will tell. Someone needs to disrupt the energy sector, maybe they can do that as well.

    My next car purchase is likely to be an EV though, my retirement car, when my 4 year old diesel Citroen C4 Picasso reaches the end of the road or is forced off it by regulation, so I follow the EV evolution with great interest over the coming few years.


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  • ToneControlToneControl Frets: 9128
    those are all comparisons with petrol/diesel vehicles

    most of the other car makers are making EVs too now 

    Best selling EV is from Nissan, not Tesla

    https://www.auto123.com/en/news/best-selling-electric-cars-world-nissan-leaf-tesla-model-s/65617/

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  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Frets: 12238
    edited July 2020
    those are all comparisons with petrol/diesel vehicles

    most of the other car makers are making EVs too now 

    Best selling EV is from Nissan, not Tesla

    https://www.auto123.com/en/news/best-selling-electric-cars-world-nissan-leaf-tesla-model-s/65617/

    Agreed, but it's not helping them is it?

    This from Nov 2019, pre COVID:

    "The automaker said its net income fell 54.8 percent in the last quarter, to 59 billion yen, or about $540 million, from the same time last year. Its revenue fell 6.6 percent in the same period.

    Nissan also reduced its profit forecast for the fiscal year that will end in March by 35 percent, to ¥110 billion. Vehicle sales, too, are expected to trail previous expectations by more than 5 percent, it said. The full-year dividend, which had been projected at ¥40 per share, could be revised, Nissan said, “following internal discussion.”

    With regards the Leaf, it's an ugly car and I wouldn't buy one. 


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  • ToneControlToneControl Frets: 9128
    those are all comparisons with petrol/diesel vehicles

    most of the other car makers are making EVs too now 

    Best selling EV is from Nissan, not Tesla

    https://www.auto123.com/en/news/best-selling-electric-cars-world-nissan-leaf-tesla-model-s/65617/

    Agreed, but it's not helping them is it?

    This from Nov 2019, pre COVID:

    "The automaker said its net income fell 54.8 percent in the last quarter, to 59 billion yen, or about $540 million, from the same time last year. Its revenue fell 6.6 percent in the same period.

    Nissan also reduced its profit forecast for the fiscal year that will end in March by 35 percent, to ¥110 billion. Vehicle sales, too, are expected to trail previous expectations by more than 5 percent, it said. The full-year dividend, which had been projected at ¥40 per share, could be revised, Nissan said, “following internal discussion.”

    With regards the Leaf, it's an ugly car and I wouldn't buy one. 


    I'm pointing out that Tesla does not have a unique product, and is not the market leader

    So Nissan had reduced profits, whereas Tesla would have made a loss (again) if it were not for state subsidies (regulatory credits, which it sells)

    To be fair, I test drove a £100k tesla, and the drive and interior were like a BMW 3 series, nothing special
    My wealthy friend prefers a Jag v8 to drive, as do many other high-end drivers, so Tesla aren't doing well with the image and driving side of it. We already know their manufacturing capability is embarassingly awful, hence the low sales and lack of profits
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  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Frets: 12238
    those are all comparisons with petrol/diesel vehicles

    most of the other car makers are making EVs too now 

    Best selling EV is from Nissan, not Tesla

    https://www.auto123.com/en/news/best-selling-electric-cars-world-nissan-leaf-tesla-model-s/65617/

    Agreed, but it's not helping them is it?

    This from Nov 2019, pre COVID:

    "The automaker said its net income fell 54.8 percent in the last quarter, to 59 billion yen, or about $540 million, from the same time last year. Its revenue fell 6.6 percent in the same period.

    Nissan also reduced its profit forecast for the fiscal year that will end in March by 35 percent, to ¥110 billion. Vehicle sales, too, are expected to trail previous expectations by more than 5 percent, it said. The full-year dividend, which had been projected at ¥40 per share, could be revised, Nissan said, “following internal discussion.”

    With regards the Leaf, it's an ugly car and I wouldn't buy one. 


    I'm pointing out that Tesla does not have a unique product, and is not the market leader

    So Nissan had reduced profits, whereas Tesla would have made a loss (again) if it were not for state subsidies (regulatory credits, which it sells)

    To be fair, I test drove a £100k tesla, and the drive and interior were like a BMW 3 series, nothing special
    My wealthy friend prefers a Jag v8 to drive, as do many other high-end drivers, so Tesla aren't doing well with the image and driving side of it. We already know their manufacturing capability is embarassingly awful, hence the low sales and lack of profits
    This analysis and comparison with GM strips out the regulatory credits:

    https://stockdividendscreener.com/auto-manufacturers/gm-and-tesla-automotive-revenue-and-gross-margin-comparison/

    "As seen from its historical results, Tesla has the capability of surpassing the results of GM. If history repeats itself, Tesla will eventually achieve a gross margin that will be higher than its competitor when the company reaches the needed sales volume.

    Despite additional costs of running retail stores, Tesla can successfully achieve the level of gross margin which is the same as General Motors. 

    Therefore, the valuation of over $100 billion in market capitalization that investors have put on Tesla as of this article is written is more or less justified judging from its growth potential in the future."

    Analysis can make the numbers look however it wants. I still think Tesla is an exciting innovator and the stock price will go up further in the short term but I wouldn't be betting on the long term.


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  • ToneControlToneControl Frets: 9128

    This analysis and comparison with GM strips out the regulatory credits:

    https://stockdividendscreener.com/auto-manufacturers/gm-and-tesla-automotive-revenue-and-gross-margin-comparison/

    "As seen from its historical results, Tesla has the capability of surpassing the results of GM. If history repeats itself, Tesla will eventually achieve a gross margin that will be higher than its competitor when the company reaches the needed sales volume.

    Despite additional costs of running retail stores, Tesla can successfully achieve the level of gross margin which is the same as General Motors. 

    Therefore, the valuation of over $100 billion in market capitalization that investors have put on Tesla as of this article is written is more or less justified judging from its growth potential in the future."

    Analysis can make the numbers look however it wants. I still think Tesla is an exciting innovator and the stock price will go up further in the short term but I wouldn't be betting on the long term.
    even if you believe that, Tesla Market cap = $274b currently, which is 174% higher than $100b
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  • thebreezethebreeze Frets: 1713
    Apologies to OP as this is diverting away slightly from your original question.  (I confess I'm more interested in the social and sustainability side of all this rather than the economics of share valuations).

    @danny1969 @crunchman - I've posted this company before, I think they are truly inspirational and imo the way transport thinking should be going, rather than the Tesla-type/traditional manufacturers direction which is too locked into historical methodology.  The site and company, as well as the vehicles, are interesting generally but they have a short piece on Hydrogen vs Batteries in the Points of View section.  Their approach is it's the wrong question to be asking and we should be organising solutions around different needs/priorities etc.  To link it to OP's question this is a very different approach to trying to maximise share value and returns to shareholders which you could say is inherently flawed when it comes to sustainability and the environment.  I don't want to start an argument it's just personally I find the thinking interesting (I hope you will too, I've got a feeling they adopt a different kind of company ownership etc) and in the main gives me hope for the future.

    https://www.riversimple.com
       
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  • ToneControlToneControl Frets: 9128
    thebreeze said:
    Apologies to OP as this is diverting away slightly from your original question.  (I confess I'm more interested in the social and sustainability side of all this rather than the economics of share valuations).

    @danny1969 @crunchman - I've posted this company before, I think they are truly inspirational and imo the way transport thinking should be going, rather than the Tesla-type/traditional manufacturers direction which is too locked into historical methodology.  The site and company, as well as the vehicles, are interesting generally but they have a short piece on Hydrogen vs Batteries in the Points of View section.  Their approach is it's the wrong question to be asking and we should be organising solutions around different needs/priorities etc.  To link it to OP's question this is a very different approach to trying to maximise share value and returns to shareholders which you could say is inherently flawed when it comes to sustainability and the environment.  I don't want to start an argument it's just personally I find the thinking interesting (I hope you will too, I've got a feeling they adopt a different kind of company ownership etc) and in the main gives me hope for the future.

    https://www.riversimple.com
       
    looks interesting
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  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Frets: 12238
    edited August 2020
    Tesla is going to do a 5 for 1 stock split. Overnight stock price is up +6.5%.

    The short sellers that haven't yet caved in with huge losses must be losing daily on the mounting charges and sweating profusely.

    https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-split-heres-what-that-means-51597182351 ;



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  • Tesla price went up 12.5% after the 5-1 stock split this weekend.

    Aswath Damodaran, professor of finance at NYU, suggests that traditional market cap measures don't necessarily apply to Tech stocks and suggests staying with the momentum:



    Tesla stock is up 68.8% since @ToneControl asked if it was time to sell Tesla back on July 28th following advice from "top rated analyst for 18 years" Toni Sacconaghi. From the original article "He left his price target unchanged at $900 a share". Well Toni may want to revisit his price target as it now effectively trading at $2,491 per share (pre-split value)!

    Legendary short seller Jim Chanos is still holding on to his view that Tesla stock should be shorted. I hope he's got deep pockets to cover his position! 

    The chap that puts these Tesla videos together is a huge Tesla Fanboi but the clips of Jim Chanos softening position on his Tesla short is notable.



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  • The big investing lesson I've learned in 2020 is how much you'd stake your life savings on a share price
    I've learned that investing your real savings feels very different to being an observer

    "Momentum" is a euphemism for a bubble
    You know it's a bubble for Tesla, everyone agrees, even Musk, so the only logical reason to invest is because you think you can ride it upwards and jump off before it bursts

    Trouble is, markets go up the stairs and down the lift shaft
    https://balentine.com/insights/blog/markets-take-the-stairs-up-and-the-elevator-down/

    how would/will you get your life savings out when the share you bought is 60% down and still dropping?
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  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Frets: 12238
    edited September 2020
    The big investing lesson I've learned in 2020 is how much you'd stake your life savings on a share price
    I've learned that investing your real savings feels very different to being an observer


    "Momentum" is a euphemism for a bubble
    You know it's a bubble for Tesla, everyone agrees, even Musk, so the only logical reason to invest is because you think you can ride it upwards and jump off before it bursts

    Trouble is, markets go up the stairs and down the lift shaft
    https://balentine.com/insights/blog/markets-take-the-stairs-up-and-the-elevator-down/

    how would/will you get your life savings out when the share you bought is 60% down and still dropping?
    All of my life savings apart from my emergency cash fund are invested in share prices and have been for decades. Not just one share price though. A small amount is invested in Tesla so I hope the price keeps going up but if it falls, the impact on me personally will be minimal.

    All I've learned from investing in 2020 is to stick with my original long term retirement wealth building plan, stay invested and keep adding more money each month, The market fell in March/April, I was down over 30% but did nothing and now a few months later it's recovered and more. It's a completely boring strategy that works.

    Also, I've learned that"market experts" are simply speculators that make a lot of noise and are full of wind and hot air whether they be calling for a stock to be shorted or the next big thing. The stock market has a lot of noise and guff surrounding it which is good entertainment for CNBC and fun to watch but that's all.

    What you are highlighting is the risk of individual stock picking and a short term outlook. If sensibly invested why would you ever need to get all your life savings out in a hurry?


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  • JalapenoJalapeno Frets: 5386
    I think Musk is a proto-Trump egomaniac knobber - witness his preening hissy fit rant about the cave rescue of the boys in the far east.
     
    He is to be lauded over SpaceX, but not the cars. Drummer mate had one, and he got clipped on country lane and the whole body disintegrated like a clown car - panels popping off all over the place - 6mth old car written off.

    Wouldn't touch a Tesla car.  Waiting for the Koreans or Japanese to perfect the model/utility mix.
    Imagine something sharp and witty here ......

    Feedback
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  • All of my life savings apart from my emergency cash fund are invested in share prices and have been for decades. Not just one share price though. A small amount is invested in Tesla so I hope the price keeps going up but if it falls, the impact on me personally will be minimal.

    All I've learned from investing in 2020 is to stick with my original long term retirement wealth building plan, stay invested and keep adding more money each month, The market fell in March/April, I was down over 30% but did nothing and now a few months later it's recovered and more. It's a completely boring strategy that works.

    This is the only really correct answer.  Obviously the best day to buy into anything is the end of the last day of a big drop, and the best time to sell is the day before the next drop happens, but noone knows when those day is until weeks afterwards - insider trading aside, obvs. A calm hand with a long term outlook and a diverse portfolio is the only consistent answer. 
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  • ICBMICBM Frets: 53887
    stickyfiddle said:

    This is the only really correct answer.  Obviously the best day to buy into anything is the end of the last day of a big drop, and the best time to sell is the day before the next drop happens, but noone knows when those day is until weeks afterwards - insider trading aside, obvs. A calm hand with a long term outlook and a diverse portfolio is the only consistent answer. 
    And the moral one. Personally, I hope all the short-sellers and other wheeler-dealers lose their shirts - they're parasites.

    Investment in the long-term future of industry creates wealth - short-term speculation on the future values of shares does not, and can sometimes have a catastrophic impact on the genuine investors.

    "Take these three items, some WD-40, a vise grip, and a roll of duct tape. Any man worth his salt can fix almost any problem with this stuff alone." - Walt Kowalski

    "Just because I don't care, doesn't mean I don't understand." - Homer Simpson

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  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Frets: 12238
    edited September 2020
    ICBM said:
    stickyfiddle said:

    This is the only really correct answer.  Obviously the best day to buy into anything is the end of the last day of a big drop, and the best time to sell is the day before the next drop happens, but noone knows when those day is until weeks afterwards - insider trading aside, obvs. A calm hand with a long term outlook and a diverse portfolio is the only consistent answer. 
    And the moral one. Personally, I hope all the short-sellers and other wheeler-dealers lose their shirts - they're parasites.

    Investment in the long-term future of industry creates wealth - short-term speculation on the future values of shares does not, and can sometimes have a catastrophic impact on the genuine investors.
    Wis'd.

    I invest through carefully chosen mutual funds and take a great interest in what in the portfolio. One of my investments, via part of my pension, is about £100K which is invested in a UK small companies fund which is invested in 30 or so companies like Greggs, Avon Rubber, Games Workshop, Future plc and many others. My wife works at Greggs and I genuinely want them to succeed as I do all those businesses, if they grow, my money grows with them and my hope is that down the road I can start to draw a modest income from my investments for retirement by selling off some shares a little at a time each year.

    As Warren Buffet says, shares are small pieces of companies, companies run by people, who employ people and make products or provide services we all enjoy, you place you money and trust in them and it's like buying a farm, you want it to do well and to grow over time. 


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  • SnapSnap Frets: 4557
    Tesla's future isn't in cars. It will be infrastructure and charging tech and the like. They already have an unrivalled charging network. It doesn't take a great leap to widen the availability of that to other car manufactures either through the existing infrastructure or through licensed kit/IP. 
    However, like all investments that have had strong growth, you make a call as to when to sell - along the lines of, have I made more than I expected, and is this the right time for me to sell, and what would I do with the gain?
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  • Snap said:
    Tesla's future isn't in cars. It will be infrastructure and charging tech and the like. They already have an unrivalled charging network. It doesn't take a great leap to widen the availability of that to other car manufactures either through the existing infrastructure or through licensed kit/IP. 
    However, like all investments that have had strong growth, you make a call as to when to sell - along the lines of, have I made more than I expected, and is this the right time for me to sell, and what would I do with the gain?
    and they are a Tech company that just happens to make electric cars.


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  • yockyyocky Frets: 375
    ICBM said:

    And the moral one. Personally, I hope all the short-sellers and other wheeler-dealers lose their shirts - they're parasites.

    Investment in the long-term future of industry creates wealth - short-term speculation on the future values of shares does not, and can sometimes have a catastrophic impact on the genuine investors.

    Don't think that's entirely fair. Some short sellers see themselves as waging a constant battle against charlatans and fraudsters, taking a stand against companies that are likely to impoverish unsophisticated investors. See Muddy Waters Research for example.

    It would be difficult to look at the Wirecard fiasco and conclude that short sellers were the problem.

    The lines aren't always so easy to draw.


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  • SnapSnap Frets: 4557
    Snap said:
    Tesla's future isn't in cars. It will be infrastructure and charging tech and the like. They already have an unrivalled charging network. It doesn't take a great leap to widen the availability of that to other car manufactures either through the existing infrastructure or through licensed kit/IP. 
    However, like all investments that have had strong growth, you make a call as to when to sell - along the lines of, have I made more than I expected, and is this the right time for me to sell, and what would I do with the gain?
    and they are a Tech company that just happens to make electric cars.
    Exactly, the cars are the gateway point into the longer game I think. I quite fancy a Cybertruck though! Bit big for UK roads, just a tad
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