Sell Tesla?

RandallFlagg

crunchman said:

Snap said:

Apple is an interesting company for sure. I bought at around 180 when the X was launched and it dropped consistently for quite a while. I held firm though, as it was quite a few grand in, but thankfully it paid off. I think it's OK for a good while yet tbh. Pretty amazing really as the iphone isn't the most technologically accomplished phone, but its very well loved and is embedded in many businesses as it's easy to centrally administer. The ipad is consistently the best tablet around though, and like all Apple's stuff - it just works, and keeps working. For the majority of people, that;s all that matters. As long as Apple maintain this ethos, I can't see them dipping too much in the foreseeable future, if I had to hedge my bets. 

Had to LOL that.

I had various issues when I had a Macbook Pro.

We had an Apple TV that stopped showing YouTube when it was only a couple of years old because they didn't want to support it any more.

Look at all the laptop threads and all the comments about newer Macbooks overheating and being unrepairable.

Apple QA? here's a clip from their latest board meeting where a hot new product was demo'd.

"Dick, I'm very disappointed"

ToneControl

crunchman said:

Snap said:

Apple is an interesting company for sure. I bought at around 180 when the X was launched and it dropped consistently for quite a while. I held firm though, as it was quite a few grand in, but thankfully it paid off. I think it's OK for a good while yet tbh. Pretty amazing really as the iphone isn't the most technologically accomplished phone, but its very well loved and is embedded in many businesses as it's easy to centrally administer. The ipad is consistently the best tablet around though, and like all Apple's stuff - it just works, and keeps working. For the majority of people, that;s all that matters. As long as Apple maintain this ethos, I can't see them dipping too much in the foreseeable future, if I had to hedge my bets. 

Had to LOL that.

I had various issues when I had a Macbook Pro.

We had an Apple TV that stopped showing YouTube when it was only a couple of years old because they didn't want to support it any more.

Look at all the laptop threads and all the comments about newer Macbooks overheating and being unrepairable.

yeah, I've taken at least 3 or 4 iPhones back for replacement, sometimes when less than a week old

RandallFlagg

There's a big sell off across the boards today on stocks, not sure what's driving this but it's not just Tesla or US. Looks brutal, worst day since the COVID crash by the looks of it:

ToneControl

Apple down 6% in the last hours

ToneControl

RandallFlagg said:

There's a big sell off across the boards today on stocks, not sure what's driving this but it's not just Tesla or US. Looks brutal, worst day since the COVID crash by the looks of it:

UK index has been around this range for weeks 

RandallFlagg

ToneControl said:

RandallFlagg said:

There's a big sell off across the boards today on stocks, not sure what's driving this but it's not just Tesla or US. Looks brutal, worst day since the COVID crash by the looks of it:

UK index has been around this range for weeks 

Spot checked some UK Smaller Companies and they are all down, more than the SmallCap index suggests. Games Workshop is down nearly 6%, Greggs down nearly 2%, Gamma Comms down 3%

September is historically the worst month for stocks and best month for gold apparently, no idea why.

I'm gonna be down a few bob tomorrow but what gets sold today gets bought tomorrow, the tide comes in and the tide goes out...but the sea level keeps rising, that's what's important. 

spark240

strange how share price goes up for something that continually loses value the minute after you bought it...

BBBlues

This is likely to be driven by the gearing effect of options trading. If someone buys a call option say, then the writer usually buys shares immediately to hedge their position (and so they're able to deliver the share if the strike price is reached). This demand creates an updards cycle on the share price, and has been driving tech stock up and up recently. Once demand for calls switches to puts then these writers want rid of the shares otherwise they'll be open to double whammy downside risk... the big sell off starts...other investors follow the momentum... and because everything follows the big tech companies then the whole market shifts without any real new information.

This is a result of having valuations on companies that are so speculative and not linked very well to underlying fundamentals such as earnings. Valuations of these tech giants by market cap is very arbitrary.

RandallFlagg

BBBlues said:

This is likely to be driven by the gearing effect of options trading. If someone buys a call option say, then the writer usually buys shares immediately to hedge their position (and so they're able to deliver the share if the strike price is reached). This demand creates an updards cycle on the share price, and has been driving tech stock up and up recently. Once demand for calls switches to puts then these writers want rid of the shares otherwise they'll be open to double whammy downside risk... the big sell off starts...other investors follow the momentum... and because everything follows the big tech companies then the whole market shifts without any real new information.

This is a result of having valuations on companies that are so speculative and not linked very well to underlying fundamentals such as earnings. Valuations of these tech giants by market cap is very arbitrary.

Well it'll give the CNBS pundits something to talk about, they will wheel out plenty of experts to gives us the benefit of their speculations.

ToneControl

RandallFlagg said:

ToneControl said:

RandallFlagg said:

There's a big sell off across the boards today on stocks, not sure what's driving this but it's not just Tesla or US. Looks brutal, worst day since the COVID crash by the looks of it:

UK index has been around this range for weeks 

Spot checked some UK Smaller Companies and they are all down, more than the SmallCap index suggests. Games Workshop is down nearly 6%, Greggs down nearly 2%, Gamma Comms down 3%

September is historically the worst month for stocks and best month for gold apparently, no idea why.

I'm gonna be down a few bob tomorrow but what gets sold today gets bought tomorrow, the tide comes in and the tide goes out...but the sea level keeps rising, that's what's important. 

my cash is mostly in Uk small caps, total up 0.75% today
Was up 2.5% earlier in the day

RandallFlagg

ToneControl said:

RandallFlagg said:

ToneControl said:

Spot checked some UK Smaller Companies and they are all down, more than the SmallCap index suggests. Games Workshop is down nearly 6%, Greggs down nearly 2%, Gamma Comms down 3%

September is historically the worst month for stocks and best month for gold apparently, no idea why.

I'm gonna be down a few bob tomorrow but what gets sold today gets bought tomorrow, the tide comes in and the tide goes out...but the sea level keeps rising, that's what's important. 

my cash is mostly in Uk small caps, total up 0.75% today
Was up 2.5% earlier in the day

Apparently Warren Buffet is buying into Japanese stocks via Berkshire Hathaway, against the tide. Worth a look at Japanese small caps??

RandallFlagg

Yesterday's wobble seems to be a one off, US futures look a lot calmer for the opening later. The Tesla price drop this week may provide an opportunity to buy for fanbois before it goes back up.

Strat_a_tat_tat

RandallFlagg said:

Yesterday's wobble seems to be a one off, US futures look a lot calmer for the opening later.

Maybe not!  NASDAQ currently down another 3.42% today.

RandallFlagg

Strat_a_tat_tat said:

RandallFlagg said:

Yesterday's wobble seems to be a one off, US futures look a lot calmer for the opening later.

Maybe not!  NASDAQ currently down another 3.42% today.

Yeah so I see, no-one seems to know what's happening, is it a sell off to lock in August profits? is it a market correction? All markets are affected but the US tech giants are taking the hit bigger than most.

Whatever it is, I stay steadfastly chained to the mast of this ship and sail on and change nothing. It's a long way down before my US funds go below my target for the year, they are riding at a combined, bloated 85% gain year to date, I only factor on 15% for the whole year to meet my long term retirement goal. 

All that money taken out has to go somewhere, it'll all drift back in eventually.

Lebarque

Don't say that everyone's finally worked out that Musk is a charlatan and the tech bubble is finally bursting?! I was going to put some more money into funds yesterday, but I think it's sensible to hold off for a day or two now.

Lebarque

Ps. I concur with @RandallFlagg re. staying steadfastly chained to the mast of the ship, as he eloquently put it; especially when you're invested in funds or trackers. I've been burned by trying to time the market before - never again! If things take a dive, stay invested and simply plow more money into quality investments at cheaper prices.

Saying that, my son is a master of timing the market. He was born in 2008 and we invested his government voucher and some family donations in his child trust fund at the end of 2008, just when the market had bottomed out due to the credit crunch crash. He's done rather well out of it, as you can imagine!

RandallFlagg

Lebarque said:

Don't say that everyone's finally worked out that Musk is a charlatan and the tech bubble is finally bursting?! I was going to put some more money into funds yesterday, but I think it's sensible to hold off for a day or two now.

No, the sell off is across the boards not just Tesla, it is slowing as the day wears on in the US markets. It's a blip, get in now while the prices are a few clicks down.

RandallFlagg

Here's a story suggesting what has been driving the recent surge is US tech stocks and subsequent sudden drop over the last 48 hours:

"Japan’s SoftBank was reportedly the “Nasdaq whale,” that bought  billions of dollars in individual stock options in big tech companies over the past month, driving up volumes and contributing to a trading frenzy."

"“It’s just a trip to the casino,” said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group. “If they’re supposed to be an investment company taking a long-term horizon, then trying to juice your short-term return through options, you’ve turned into a hedge fund.”

"Tech investor Roger McNamee said the SoftBank report was disturbing. “If it’s true that SoftBank is doing that, it would be more signs that the fundamental picture here is decoupled from stock prices,” he said on CNBC."

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/04/softbank-reportedly-the-nasdaq-whale-that-bought-billions-in-options.html

RandallFlagg

BBBlues said:

This is likely to be driven by the gearing effect of options trading. If someone buys a call option say, then the writer usually buys shares immediately to hedge their position (and so they're able to deliver the share if the strike price is reached). This demand creates an updards cycle on the share price, and has been driving tech stock up and up recently. Once demand for calls switches to puts then these writers want rid of the shares otherwise they'll be open to double whammy downside risk... the big sell off starts...other investors follow the momentum... and because everything follows the big tech companies then the whole market shifts without any real new information.

This is a result of having valuations on companies that are so speculative and not linked very well to underlying fundamentals such as earnings. Valuations of these tech giants by market cap is very arbitrary.

You were spot on with your assessment @BBBlues ;;it was SoftBank that placed huge volumes of call options on the big Tech through August driving up the prices to the eventual boil over point.

Us long term tech investors and many millions of peoples pension funds will have to suffer the volatility caused by the options traders for some time I reckon.

BBBlues

Glad to get something right for a change

Looks like Tesla missed out on being added to the S&P500 on Friday. Main reason being it needs at least 4 consecutive quarters of profits... $483m of pre tax profits in the first half year were propped up by selling $782m of regulatory credits. I guess this is not seen as a long-term source of profit, so have been overlooked for now.