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Extremely unlikely it came from Wuhan laboratory....

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AdeyAdey Frets: 1522
.... Apparently.

According to WHO....

Phew!
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Comments

  • poopotpoopot Frets: 9078
    C’mon... what does Roger Daltry actually know about the facts?
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  • StratavariousStratavarious Frets: 2184
    edited February 2021
    And they seem to be finding very similar viruses in bats all over SE Asia.  

    We got lucky.. Nipah has a very high mortality rate. https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/nipah-virus


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  • And they seem to be finding very similar viruses in bats all over SE Asia 
    And frozen peas!!

    Bye!

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  • scrumhalfscrumhalf Frets: 9473
    poopot said:
    C’mon... what does Roger Daltry actually know about the facts?

    See me, don't feel me, don't touch me, vaccinate me.
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  • poopot said:
    C’mon... what does Roger Daltry actually know about the facts?
    What the guy who voted for Paul Nuttells UKIP who aggressively advocated for the abolishion of the NHS all the while playing Teenage Cancer Trust gigs every year? The guy is a walking contradiction with the haircut of my nan. 
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  • TeleMasterTeleMaster Frets: 6783
    edited February 2021
    On topic: WHO now believe this could have come into China via fish. The CCP have been promoting this for a while. 

    I'm not a conspiracy theorist. I need to set the evidence, but it is... Fishy......
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  • ToneControlToneControl Frets: 10716
    It was extremely unlikely to escape from the Wuhan Lab

    Trouble is, once it's escaped from somewhere, the calculations change - since a large number of happier outcomes vanish, along with their relative probability level

    "Could it transmit from Lab or nature into the human population" becomes
    "Where did it transmit from?"

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  • NelsonPNelsonP Frets: 2660
    edited February 2021
    So they stop short of confirming that it didn't come from WIV, saying that it 'extemely unlikely'.

    Presumably they can't say it didn't come from WIV because they still don't know where it came from.  Then they pack up their things and go home,  leaving the place where all the clues to the origin of the virus are. I wonder how much free access to people and data they were given.

    For what it's worth, a reminder of WHO's recommendations when 44 slightly odd cases of pneumonia were detected at the start of 2020:
    "WHO does not recommend any specific measures for travellers.", and "WHO advises against the application of any travel or trade restrictions on China..."

    Do these people really have a clue?
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  • NelsonP said:
    So they stop short of confirming that it didn't come from WIV, saying that it 'extemely unlikely'.

    Presumably they can't say it didn't come from WIV because they still don't know where it came from.  Then they pack up their things and go home,  leaving the place where all the clues to the origin of the virus are. I wonder how much free access to people and data they were given.

    For what it's worth, a reminder of WHO's recommendations when 44 slightly odd cases of pneumonia were detected at the start of 2020:
    "WHO does not recommend any specific measures for travellers.", and "WHO advises against the application of any travel or trade restrictions on China..."

    Do these people really have a clue?

    44 slightly odd cases of pneumonia in a part of China seldom visited. Be honest... Had you heard of Wuhan before all this? I hadn't. 

    People could still travel to areas affected by ebola. There were quarantine measures in place. 

    I don't know, 44 cases in a country of over a billion people... Would you have advised against travel? 

    If so, how do you feel about travel to South America and Africa? Should they be closed off pre-covid? 
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  • NelsonPNelsonP Frets: 2660
    NelsonP said:
    So they stop short of confirming that it didn't come from WIV, saying that it 'extemely unlikely'.

    Presumably they can't say it didn't come from WIV because they still don't know where it came from.  Then they pack up their things and go home,  leaving the place where all the clues to the origin of the virus are. I wonder how much free access to people and data they were given.

    For what it's worth, a reminder of WHO's recommendations when 44 slightly odd cases of pneumonia were detected at the start of 2020:
    "WHO does not recommend any specific measures for travellers.", and "WHO advises against the application of any travel or trade restrictions on China..."

    Do these people really have a clue?

    44 slightly odd cases of pneumonia in a part of China seldom visited. Be honest... Had you heard of Wuhan before all this? I hadn't. 

    People could still travel to areas affected by ebola. There were quarantine measures in place. 

    I don't know, 44 cases in a country of over a billion people... Would you have advised against travel? 

    If so, how do you feel about travel to South America and Africa? Should they be closed off pre-covid? 
    Well, I don't work for the WHO so what I would have recommended doesn't matter much. 

    With hindsight, their decision to not prevent travel was totally wrong. They had obviously considered it at the time, as it was mentioned twice in the recommendations. And then they decided to stop short of recommending against travel.

    Once again they are stopping short. This time of ruling out completely that WIV could have been the source.

    What is the point of the WHO in all this exactly?
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  • monquixotemonquixote Frets: 15595
    tFB Trader
    NelsonP said:
    against travel.

    Once again they are stopping short. This time of ruling out completely that WIV could have been the source.

    What is the point of the WHO in all this exactly?
    That's not really how it works.

    They've determined that it's extremely statistically unlikely but they can't tell you it didn't happen.

    Think of it as you had a bag of a million blue marbles I throw in one more and you pick one at random.
    You can never say you didn't pick my marble but you can say it almost certainly didn't happen.
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  • CirrusCirrus Frets: 7558

    44 slightly odd cases of pneumonia in a part of China seldom visited. Be honest... Had you heard of Wuhan before all this? I hadn't. 
    My dad used to work there regularly, it's a big industrial city with links to business all over the world.
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  • jpfampsjpfamps Frets: 2686

    One thing has not been addressed is what exactly was being done at the Wuhan lab.

    If the Wuhan lab was working on gain of function of coronaviruses by altering RNA sequences then they will have the RNA sequences of these new viruses; thus we can compare the sequences of these new viruses (assuming that they are being engineered) with the C19 sequences, especially as the C19 sequence has features not found in known coronavirus sequences.

    These data, unless they have been destroyed, will be somewhere, so the issue of whether the Wuhan lab was or wasn't the source of the C19 outbreak should be addressed by disclosing these data.

    Of course if the Wuhan lab was working with viral sequences that are extremely similar or identical to C19 that doesn't necessarily mean that the virus escaped from the Wuhan lab, however the only logical way it's not likely to have come from the Wuhan lab in those circumstance, is if the C19 samples had been collected rather than engineered, in which case the source of the virus should be documented.

    This can all be assessed by looking at the data.


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  • jpfampsjpfamps Frets: 2686
    NelsonP said:
    So they stop short of confirming that it didn't come from WIV, saying that it 'extemely unlikely'.

    Presumably they can't say it didn't come from WIV because they still don't know where it came from.  Then they pack up their things and go home,  leaving the place where all the clues to the origin of the virus are. I wonder how much free access to people and data they were given.

    For what it's worth, a reminder of WHO's recommendations when 44 slightly odd cases of pneumonia were detected at the start of 2020:
    "WHO does not recommend any specific measures for travellers.", and "WHO advises against the application of any travel or trade restrictions on China..."

    Do these people really have a clue?
    The WHO were not recommending imposition of travel restrictions with areas affected by coronavirus as late as 29th Feb.
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  • ToneControlToneControl Frets: 10716
    jpfamps said:
    NelsonP said:
    So they stop short of confirming that it didn't come from WIV, saying that it 'extemely unlikely'.

    Presumably they can't say it didn't come from WIV because they still don't know where it came from.  Then they pack up their things and go home,  leaving the place where all the clues to the origin of the virus are. I wonder how much free access to people and data they were given.

    For what it's worth, a reminder of WHO's recommendations when 44 slightly odd cases of pneumonia were detected at the start of 2020:
    "WHO does not recommend any specific measures for travellers.", and "WHO advises against the application of any travel or trade restrictions on China..."

    Do these people really have a clue?
    The WHO were not recommending imposition of travel restrictions with areas affected by coronavirus as late as 29th Feb.
    I can only assume the WHO are corrupt
    China was isolating Wuhan long before that
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  • ToneControlToneControl Frets: 10716
    jpfamps said:

    One thing has not been addressed is what exactly was being done at the Wuhan lab.

    If the Wuhan lab was working on gain of function of coronaviruses by altering RNA sequences then they will have the RNA sequences of these new viruses; thus we can compare the sequences of these new viruses (assuming that they are being engineered) with the C19 sequences, especially as the C19 sequence has features not found in known coronavirus sequences.

    These data, unless they have been destroyed, will be somewhere, so the issue of whether the Wuhan lab was or wasn't the source of the C19 outbreak should be addressed by disclosing these data.

    Of course if the Wuhan lab was working with viral sequences that are extremely similar or identical to C19 that doesn't necessarily mean that the virus escaped from the Wuhan lab, however the only logical way it's not likely to have come from the Wuhan lab in those circumstance, is if the C19 samples had been collected rather than engineered, in which case the source of the virus should be documented.

    This can all be assessed by looking at the data.


    Like you, I'm baffled why these issues are not appearing in the news
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  • Like you, I'm baffled why these issues are not appearing in the news
    I'm still baffled as to why people think this matters. Consider what we know:

    - We're mostly certain it originated in China.
    - It may or may not have originated in a lab in China.
    - We can't be certain one way or another, on current evidence.
    - Given the secrecy inherent in China's operations (not just military/intelligence, but also because they do anything they can to save face), it's likely that we'll never have enough evidence to improve that uncertainty.

    So why bother?

    Or, for another angle, if you're lying in the road bleeding out, would you rather the paramedics on the scene focused on fixing you up or arguing over which car hit you?
    <space for hire>
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  • Benm39Benm39 Frets: 248
    If it came from fish,  were they happy fish like ours,  or unhappy fish? 
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  • Like you, I'm baffled why these issues are not appearing in the news
    I'm still baffled as to why people think this matters. Consider what we know:

    - We're mostly certain it originated in China.
    - It may or may not have originated in a lab in China.
    - We can't be certain one way or another, on current evidence.
    - Given the secrecy inherent in China's operations (not just military/intelligence, but also because they do anything they can to save face), it's likely that we'll never have enough evidence to improve that uncertainty.

    So why bother?

    Or, for another angle, if you're lying in the road bleeding out, would you rather the paramedics on the scene focused on fixing you up or arguing over which car hit you?
    We're passed the lying in the road bit.

    We're now up in the hospital bed recovering.

    And the police haven't visted to take a witness statement. And every time we try to get a nurses attention and speak to her about what happened, she just tells us to fuck off and carries on eating her Doritos and drinking her Mountain Dew.

    Bye!

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  • jpfampsjpfamps Frets: 2686
    Like you, I'm baffled why these issues are not appearing in the news
    I'm still baffled as to why people think this matters. Consider what we know:

    - We're mostly certain it originated in China.
    - It may or may not have originated in a lab in China.
    - We can't be certain one way or another, on current evidence.
    - Given the secrecy inherent in China's operations (not just military/intelligence, but also because they do anything they can to save face), it's likely that we'll never have enough evidence to improve that uncertainty.

    So why bother?

    Or, for another angle, if you're lying in the road bleeding out, would you rather the paramedics on the scene focused on fixing you up or arguing over which car hit you?
    The point of working out the source of C19 is to try to prevent it happening again; this is important I reckon.

    And this enquiry is not happening at the expense of dealing with the current C19 crisis.

    It's why there is an enquiry into the Grenfell fire for example, and should be one into our government's handling of the C19 crisis.

    Whether anything changes as a result of said enquiries is another matter.................




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