Extremely unlikely it came from Wuhan laboratory....

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  • TeleMasterTeleMaster Frets: 4488
    Like you, I'm baffled why these issues are not appearing in the news
    I'm still baffled as to why people think this matters. Consider what we know:

    - We're mostly certain it originated in China.
    - It may or may not have originated in a lab in China.
    - We can't be certain one way or another, on current evidence.
    - Given the secrecy inherent in China's operations (not just military/intelligence, but also because they do anything they can to save face), it's likely that we'll never have enough evidence to improve that uncertainty.

    So why bother?

    Or, for another angle, if you're lying in the road bleeding out, would you rather the paramedics on the scene focused on fixing you up or arguing over which car hit you?
    We're passed the lying in the road bit.

    We're now up in the hospital bed recovering.

    And the police haven't visted to take a witness statement. And every time we try to get a nurses attention and speak to her about what happened, she just tells us to fuck off and carries on eating her Doritos and drinking her Mountain Dew.
    I am offended on multiple levels.

    We eat pizzas on sundays (it’s like a tradition) and we drink Coke. Plus, HER? You had the opportunity to be all woke and say HE and you completely blew it. 
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  • NelsonPNelsonP Frets: 2070
    edited February 10
    I'm still baffled as to why people think this matters. Consider what we know:

    - We're mostly certain it originated in China.
    - It may or may not have originated in a lab in China.
    - We can't be certain one way or another, on current evidence.
    - Given the secrecy inherent in China's operations (not just military/intelligence, but also because they do anything they can to save face), it's likely that we'll never have enough evidence to improve that uncertainty.

    So why bother?
    Because if someone was playing with matches and accidentally burned your house down, and the fire then spread and burned every house in your street down, then you and your neighbours might want the opportunity to ask them to either not play with matches anymore, or to be much more careful in future.

    Of course your job may be harder if that person has already got rid of all of their matches before you get a chance to speak to them. If they were playing with matches specifically to work out the best way to burn your house down, then you might want to know about that too. You might expect them to be somewhat uncooperative.

    Basically lessons need to be learned to prevent it happening again. Not just in China, but anywhere where they are dicking about with dangerous viruses. 

    Ahem, in the 'extremely unlikely' event that it was accidentally leaked from a lab, that is.
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  • Like you, I'm baffled why these issues are not appearing in the news
    I'm still baffled as to why people think this matters. Consider what we know:

    - We're mostly certain it originated in China.
    - It may or may not have originated in a lab in China.
    - We can't be certain one way or another, on current evidence.
    - Given the secrecy inherent in China's operations (not just military/intelligence, but also because they do anything they can to save face), it's likely that we'll never have enough evidence to improve that uncertainty.

    So why bother?

    Or, for another angle, if you're lying in the road bleeding out, would you rather the paramedics on the scene focused on fixing you up or arguing over which car hit you?
    We're passed the lying in the road bit.

    We're now up in the hospital bed recovering.

    And the police haven't visted to take a witness statement. And every time we try to get a nurses attention and speak to her about what happened, she just tells us to fuck off and carries on eating her Doritos and drinking her Mountain Dew.
    I am offended on multiple levels.
    Good.
    My band: TACOMA NARROWS BRIDGE DISASTER
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  • AdeyAdey Frets: 1056
    jpfamps said:
    Like you, I'm baffled why these issues are not appearing in the news
    I'm still baffled as to why people think this matters. Consider what we know:

    - We're mostly certain it originated in China.
    - It may or may not have originated in a lab in China.
    - We can't be certain one way or another, on current evidence.
    - Given the secrecy inherent in China's operations (not just military/intelligence, but also because they do anything they can to save face), it's likely that we'll never have enough evidence to improve that uncertainty.

    So why bother?

    Or, for another angle, if you're lying in the road bleeding out, would you rather the paramedics on the scene focused on fixing you up or arguing over which car hit you?
    The point of working out the source of C19 is to try to prevent it happening again; this is important I reckon.

    The source of C19 may have been entirely natural. Not much you  can do about that.

    It may have come from a lab. All countries engage in secret experimentation in case another hostile country should use this sort of thing as a weapon. You aren't going to stop that even if you know about it.

    Nutters and terrorists might also be able to create toxins and nasty viruses. The best thing to do to stop this is to make it illegal for terrorists to carry out terrorist activity. That should sort that one out.
    And if they did still continue terroristing, then they should be heavily fined. That'll stop 'em.
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  • TeleMasterTeleMaster Frets: 4488
    Like you, I'm baffled why these issues are not appearing in the news
    I'm still baffled as to why people think this matters. Consider what we know:

    - We're mostly certain it originated in China.
    - It may or may not have originated in a lab in China.
    - We can't be certain one way or another, on current evidence.
    - Given the secrecy inherent in China's operations (not just military/intelligence, but also because they do anything they can to save face), it's likely that we'll never have enough evidence to improve that uncertainty.

    So why bother?

    Or, for another angle, if you're lying in the road bleeding out, would you rather the paramedics on the scene focused on fixing you up or arguing over which car hit you?
    We're passed the lying in the road bit.

    We're now up in the hospital bed recovering.

    And the police haven't visted to take a witness statement. And every time we try to get a nurses attention and speak to her about what happened, she just tells us to fuck off and carries on eating her Doritos and drinking her Mountain Dew.
    I am offended on multiple levels.
    Good.
    Alright Frankie Boyle. 
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  • ToneControlToneControl Frets: 9629
    Like you, I'm baffled why these issues are not appearing in the news
    I'm still baffled as to why people think this matters. Consider what we know:

    - We're mostly certain it originated in China.
    - It may or may not have originated in a lab in China.
    - We can't be certain one way or another, on current evidence.
    - Given the secrecy inherent in China's operations (not just military/intelligence, but also because they do anything they can to save face), it's likely that we'll never have enough evidence to improve that uncertainty.

    So why bother?

    Or, for another angle, if you're lying in the road bleeding out, would you rather the paramedics on the scene focused on fixing you up or arguing over which car hit you?
    it matters because Labs (in an country) researching viruses should be made to fund maximum precautions, and should be stopped from performing gain of function experiments unless benefits outweigh risks

    This whitewash just leaves to carry on things as-is, even though we know that various labs have leaked deadly viruses before, and we know that labs have worked on gain of function experiments on viruses (including this type)
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  • monquixotemonquixote Frets: 13598
    Like you, I'm baffled why these issues are not appearing in the news
    I'm still baffled as to why people think this matters. Consider what we know:

    - We're mostly certain it originated in China.
    - It may or may not have originated in a lab in China.
    - We can't be certain one way or another, on current evidence.
    - Given the secrecy inherent in China's operations (not just military/intelligence, but also because they do anything they can to save face), it's likely that we'll never have enough evidence to improve that uncertainty.

    So why bother?

    Or, for another angle, if you're lying in the road bleeding out, would you rather the paramedics on the scene focused on fixing you up or arguing over which car hit you?
    it matters because Labs (in an country) researching viruses should be made to fund maximum precautions, and should be stopped from performing gain of function experiments unless benefits outweigh risks

    This whitewash just leaves to carry on things as-is, even though we know that various labs have leaked deadly viruses before, and we know that labs have worked on gain of function experiments on viruses (including this type)

    But you don't know that it's a white wash
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  • TeleMasterTeleMaster Frets: 4488
    edited February 11
    You haven’t seen the report and you’ve called it a whitewash already. Isn’t that literally the definition of bias?
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  • NelsonPNelsonP Frets: 2070
    edited February 11
    You haven’t seen the report and you’ve called it a whitewash already. Isn’t that literally the definition of bias?
    Someone should tell Peter Daszak about this. This is an article written by him in June last year.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jun/09/conspiracies-covid-19-lab-false-pandemic

    He was on the WHO team who visited Wuhan. Could his pre-existing view and direct relationship with WIV have coloured his judgement?

    Apparently the US are talking about independent verification. Not sure how they will do that!
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  • menamestommenamestom Frets: 3629

    Quick question.

    Most people seem to be assuming that the argument has 2 probable causes, with equal probability, or at least equal enough to be constructed on opposing sides of an argument.

    On one side is a secure facility, with a low number of people, who are scientifically trained in dealing with virus and safety protocols. 

    On the other side, are hundreds of millions of people in daily contact with each other, wildlife, food from wild species etc, both native and imported.  

    Do they both have equal probability as causes for C19?
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  • TeleMasterTeleMaster Frets: 4488
    NelsonP said:
    You haven’t seen the report and you’ve called it a whitewash already. Isn’t that literally the definition of bias?
    Someone should tell Peter Daszak about this.
    Surely the guy doing the investigation has an idea of what his findings are when he’s already investigated the site in question?
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  • Why is no one claiming SARS, MERS, NIPAH and the 1.5 million other pathogens that have or can jump through animals to humans, are not all lab escapes or mad science experiments. 


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  • NelsonPNelsonP Frets: 2070
    Why is no one claiming SARS, MERS, NIPAH and the 1.5 million other pathogens that have or can jump through animals to humans, are not all lab escapes or mad science experiments. 


    Not sure, but quite possibly because there wasn't a lab messing about with those viruses at their epicentre?
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  • NelsonPNelsonP Frets: 2070
    NelsonP said:
    You haven’t seen the report and you’ve called it a whitewash already. Isn’t that literally the definition of bias?
    Someone should tell Peter Daszak about this.
    Surely the guy doing the investigation has an idea of what his findings are when he’s already investigated the site in question?
    Yes, but is he really impartial? He's been working with them for 15 years after all. 

    I suspect we will never really know the source.
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  • monquixotemonquixote Frets: 13598

    Quick question.

    Most people seem to be assuming that the argument has 2 probable causes, with equal probability, or at least equal enough to be constructed on opposing sides of an argument.

    On one side is a secure facility, with a low number of people, who are scientifically trained in dealing with virus and safety protocols. 

    On the other side, are hundreds of millions of people in daily contact with each other, wildlife, food from wild species etc, both native and imported.  

    Do they both have equal probability as causes for C19?
    That's it in a nutshell. 

    It's a weight of numbers thing. 

    This is a perfectly normal thing that happens all the time, we don't need to start looking at secret labs doing naughty things to find a likely cause unless we have an extremely compelling reason to do so. 
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  • TeleMasterTeleMaster Frets: 4488
    edited February 12
    NelsonP said:
    NelsonP said:
    You haven’t seen the report and you’ve called it a whitewash already. Isn’t that literally the definition of bias?
    Someone should tell Peter Daszak about this.
    Surely the guy doing the investigation has an idea of what his findings are when he’s already investigated the site in question?
    Yes, but is he really impartial? He's been working with them for 15 years after all. 

    I suspect we will never really know the source.
    I’m not saying you don’t have a right to be suspicious, but working with them is different from working for them. And in itself, that isn’t evidence of guilt. What you’re suggesting is that not only is a large portion of the WHO working to suppress information about a leak from the CCP, now outside agencies are too. The amount of people involved in this would have to be in the thousands. The conspiracy just keeps spreading and spreading, people keep adding more elements to it like a pick & mix to suit their narrative. It doesn’t matter what information comes out, confirmation bias will be king. 

    Have you ever tried to tell a group of people, coworkers, your team you manage or whatever to keep something to themselves? In 5 minutes the whole office knows, as does everyone who’s not in that day. The dude who shot Bin Laden was bound by a secrets act, first opportunity he’s on talk shows and writing books. Human nature and error make large groups keeping things secret for a long time very improbable. 

    I’m not saying it’s not a whitewash, or there isn’t collusion or a cover up, but I don’t see any smoking guns right now, and those who want there to be one are making accusations about the findings and people working on them very, very quickly. 

    I believe they should be there investigating every possibility. I feel that if there is a cover up, if there was a leak from a lab and the CCP are hiding it, then they should be held accountable with sanctions and international restrictions. They should have to have international observers in their labs, not be involved in that kind of work etc. But is there a cover up? That’s the question.
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  • ToneControlToneControl Frets: 9629
    Like you, I'm baffled why these issues are not appearing in the news
    I'm still baffled as to why people think this matters. Consider what we know:

    - We're mostly certain it originated in China.
    - It may or may not have originated in a lab in China.
    - We can't be certain one way or another, on current evidence.
    - Given the secrecy inherent in China's operations (not just military/intelligence, but also because they do anything they can to save face), it's likely that we'll never have enough evidence to improve that uncertainty.

    So why bother?

    Or, for another angle, if you're lying in the road bleeding out, would you rather the paramedics on the scene focused on fixing you up or arguing over which car hit you?
    it matters because Labs (in an country) researching viruses should be made to fund maximum precautions, and should be stopped from performing gain of function experiments unless benefits outweigh risks

    This whitewash just leaves to carry on things as-is, even though we know that various labs have leaked deadly viruses before, and we know that labs have worked on gain of function experiments on viruses (including this type)

    But you don't know that it's a white wash
    I think you can safely deduce that it's a whitewash based on
    • the concerted effort of the CCP to avoid the visits for months and stage manage them
    • the way the CCP tried to stifle reports of covid when it first emerged Chinese scientists destroyed proof of virus in December | The Sunday Times (thetimes.co.uk)
    • Destruction of evidence before visits - the wet market, destroying samples, etc.
    • Most importantly the announcement that it was "unlikely to have come from a Lab" on the last day of the info-gathering visit to China. Does that sound like a normal scientific way to investigate something? To announce your conclusions before you have gone away and analysed the evidence you have collected? Did they take samples? Had they completed their research in their hotel rooms whilst still gathering evidence?
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  • ToneControlToneControl Frets: 9629
    edited February 12
    You haven’t seen the report and you’ve called it a whitewash already. Isn’t that literally the definition of bias?
    heh, actually the WHO making that announcement before completing analysis is about the most biased thing here

    My opinion is from learned experience based on 
    • CCP denies everything, tries to hide evidence, all proven facts
    • WHO proven to be incompetent, told us all to carry on flying, congratulated China, made dumb announcements that implied to public that you would not be immune after recovering from covid - their record in making stupid and misleading announcements is a matter on record
    • As I said , making an announcement during evidence gathering before any chance to analyse the evidence. Can you imagine the police announcing that it was extremely unlikely that someone who was at a murder scene was involved in a murder before they'd taken the samples through the labs for days/weeks?
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  • ToneControlToneControl Frets: 9629

    Quick question.

    Most people seem to be assuming that the argument has 2 probable causes, with equal probability, or at least equal enough to be constructed on opposing sides of an argument.

    On one side is a secure facility, with a low number of people, who are scientifically trained in dealing with virus and safety protocols. 

    On the other side, are hundreds of millions of people in daily contact with each other, wildlife, food from wild species etc, both native and imported.  

    Do they both have equal probability as causes for C19?
    that's the kind of thing I expected to be analysed
    it is indeed typical layman/journalist thinking that 2 opposing ideas should be considered as equally valid

    you'd need to consider that the bats carrying the closest match to covid were found 1900km from Wuhan
    That's roughly the same distance as travelling from London to Russia.

    Imagine there's a virus in chickens in a rural part of Russia. UK scientists travel there to take swabs from the chickens, and take them back to London to do Lab tests. The head of the Lab has already worked on gain-of-function experiments on this type of virus. After a few years there is an outbreak of a new virus of this type in London. The first thing you would think is: "how is this virus first spreading 1900km from where its nearest match exists in nature?" then you'd look at patterns of travel, whether chickens had been imported from that part of Russia to London, how many people travel between those locations.
    The "hundreds of millions of people" between the 2 geographical points raises the question of why they were not infected before the virus travelled so far from its origins, so actually makes  a "natural migration" sound less likely. 


    If the virus was from these bats in Yunnan, you'd expect the first outbreak in humans to be there, not half a continent away, unless there was evidence that bats from there were transported to Wuhan for sale as food, and I've not seen anyone claim that to be true. Whereas it is documented fact in scientific papers published by the Wuhan Lab that they went and actively collected bat virus samples from many rural areas and caves, 1900km away from Wuhan, over several years.

    It's also documented scientific fact that several accidental releases of viruses from Labs have occurred over the last 50 years, some resulting in the deaths of many thousands. Hence the banning of gain-of-function experiments for several years
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  • Where’s Punxsutawney Phil? I can hear Sonny & Cher on the radio and it’s 6am.
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