Do lockdowns work?

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  • ColsCols Frets: 3992
    Cols said:
    Is there a link to the actual paper, rather than an interpretation by the Conservative Party Newsletter?

    From the tone of the co-author’s comments, he seems a bit miffed that the findings are being misinterpreted.
    You're the research king. You find it. I'm just some dickhead who posts Tory propaganda on guitar forums and gets paid for it!
    No worries.  I thought it might be interesting to read the source rather than getting into an unproductive back-and-forth.

    Knowing my luck it’s probably all in German.
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  • I'd love to utilise my German skills for you, but I'm watching Naked Gun 2 1/2.

    And yes. This IS some kind of bust!

    Bye!

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  • ColsCols Frets: 3992
    I'd love to utilise my German skills for you, but I'm watching Naked Gun 2 1/2.

    And yes. This IS some kind of bust!
    I know a little German.

    https://youtu.be/FkWePyPs1e0 

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  • @Cols ;
    Such an amazing movie! One of my favourites!

    Bye!

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  • DefaultMDefaultM Frets: 4238
    Snap said:
    Imperial's models always looked bizarre to me, right from the off. I don't know who they have got in there doing this work but it never looked realistic. The bigger question is why they were never critically challenged. Answer - it suited the agenda at the time.
    I'm reading a book about forecasting at the minute. I'm only at the start, but it's talking about how these forecasters are asked for a view, and then that's what governments etc act on.
    If it all turns out to be completely wrong there isn't actually a process in place to hold them to account. There's no reviews of previous results to improve work going forward. A lot of them have a history of getting it wrong more than right, but because they're good at telling a believable story of what might happen they continue to get work.
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  • CirrusCirrus Frets: 6674
    I've spent a bit of time thinking about it and yep, lickdowns work
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  • CirrusCirrus Frets: 6674
    Wait
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  • AdeyAdey Frets: 1176
    DefaultM said:
    Snap said:
    Imperial's models always looked bizarre to me, right from the off. I don't know who they have got in there doing this work but it never looked realistic. The bigger question is why they were never critically challenged. Answer - it suited the agenda at the time.
    I'm reading a book about forecasting at the minute. I'm only at the start, but it's talking about how these forecasters are asked for a view, and then that's what governments etc act on.
    If it all turns out to be completely wrong there isn't actually a process in place to hold them to account. There's no reviews of previous results to improve work going forward. A lot of them have a history of getting it wrong more than right, but because they're good at telling a believable story of what might happen they continue to get work.

    I am an expert at forecasting.

    I'm shit at getting it right though.
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  • Bye!

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  • PC_DavePC_Dave Frets: 3164
    Didn't go too well for ol John, did it....?
    This week's procrastination forum might be moved to sometime next week.
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  • mendymendy Frets: 171
    edited July 24
     B)
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  • p90foolp90fool Frets: 22932
    Sounds like Javid is  about more realistic about the negative effects of lockdown and intends to stick to July 19th and to let everyone assess their own risk. 

    That's in England anyway, I suspect serial contrarian Drakeford will probably go the other way and introduce a five foot travel limit and compulsory masks in your own bed. 
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  • NelsonPNelsonP Frets: 2166
    edited July 1
    Define "work". If you mean that they work to make you go a bit mental, then yes, they work brilliantly.
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