UK’s early response worst public health failure ever

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  • crunchmancrunchman Frets: 8103

    Australia has a right wing government doesn't it? Unless that's changed recently?

    Also, presumably Aus and NZ have access to vaccines as well, so they are not like the indigenous tribes you mention. I have no natural immunity but I've had two jabs, so I wouldn't expect (statistically) to die from Covid if I did catch it.

    The vaccines only target one protein on the virus - the famous spike protein.  I think the virus is made up of 28 proteins in total.

    Natural immunity will target other parts of the virus as well, so it is more broad based.  Where that will give a significant advantage is if there is a mutation in the spike protein.  That might make the vaccines significantly less effective where those who have natural immunity should still have a good amount of immunity, because their bodies recognise the other parts of the virus.
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  • thecolourboxthecolourbox Frets: 6961
    edited October 13
    crunchman said:

    Australia has a right wing government doesn't it? Unless that's changed recently?

    Also, presumably Aus and NZ have access to vaccines as well, so they are not like the indigenous tribes you mention. I have no natural immunity but I've had two jabs, so I wouldn't expect (statistically) to die from Covid if I did catch it.

    The vaccines only target one protein on the virus - the famous spike protein.  I think the virus is made up of 28 proteins in total.

    Natural immunity will target other parts of the virus as well, so it is more broad based.  Where that will give a significant advantage is if there is a mutation in the spike protein.  That might make the vaccines significantly less effective where those who have natural immunity should still have a good amount of immunity, because their bodies recognise the other parts of the virus.
    But by that measure (and those are very good points) surely everybody in the UK who has not had Covid, such as myself, are in the same boat? Considering the vast majority of us have not had it (even allowing for those who have had it but didn't realise).

    It's very possible that I'm just being stupid here so if I am please do tell me to shush :) I shan't take offence
    www.pianomatt.co.uk - Wedding and Event Pianist in the West Midlands
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  • crunchman said:
    siremoon said:
    Faillng on vaccination too.. 6th or 7th in Europe now.
    Come back to us when you've broken that down by countries that place day to day restrictions we don't on people without a vaccine passport.  If we had introduced vaccine passports for many day to day things then our rates would undoubtedly be higher but no doubt many of those currently crowing over the drop off in our rates would have complained about such a measure too.   

    If people choose not to get a vaccine, that's their choice.  It's not a sensible choice, but it's theirs to make.

    It is wrong to start mandating medical treatment and giving the state a say.  This year it might be mandatory vaccines, but next year it might be some other thing they make mandatory.  I'm not saying it's likely to happen here any time soon, but it's a step on the road to what we have seen in China with forced abortions.  We should not be giving up any freedoms.

    There are also people with genuine objections of conscience.  A lot of the vaccines are made or tested using tissues from aborted babies.  I've chosen to have the vaccine but there are people in my church who won't have it because of that.

    On the other hand, I work with a fully paid up tin foil hat nutter who thinks the sun shines out of David Icke's bottom.  She refuses to get vaccinated.  In the early days she was on board the "it's caused by 5G" bandwagon.  Given that she has a physics degree, she really ought to know better.

    Regarding the issue of public health failure, we have yet to see the long term damage caused by the lockdowns.  We are already seeing deaths from non-Covid issues at a higher level than normal.  With the funding constraints on the health service because we will have taken on a trillion pounds of extra debt, there are going to be extra deaths for decades to come.  They will probably end up being more than the lives we saved through the lockdowns - definitely for the second and third lockdowns.

    If we had locked down earlier, we would just be in the situation that NZ and Australia find themselves in with extreme lockdowns and no natural immunity.  It's easy to say with hindsight that locking down earlier would have bought more time for a vaccine, but at the time, there was no guarantee of an effective vaccine in a reasonable time frame.  I don't think there had ever been a widespread rollout of a successful vaccine against any Coronavirus.  A lot of experts were saying that a vaccine could be 18 months away, and there was a possibility of it being longer than that, or never.

    The vaccines ended up being developed far faster than anyone thought, but nobody could be sure of that at the time, and building up natural immunity in the young and healthy was the right response at the time.

    It's too early to be judging everything while things are still ongoing, but I suspect that people looking back in 10 years time will have a different view, and it's likely that Sweden will come out of this looking a lot better than most.
    +1 for Sweden

    soem info by the way:
    COVID-19 vaccines and aborted fetuses – FactCheckNI

    Summary

      • No COVID-19 vaccine contains cells from aborted fetuses. 
      • A replica cell line from a fetus aborted in 1973 was used to develop the AstraZeneca/Oxford University vaccine. However, the vaccine itself does not contain fetal cells. 
      • New mRNA vaccines, such as those being developed by Pfizer and Moderna, are synthetic vaccines, sequenced on a computer in a lab, and do not use fetal cell lines in their production.

    I wish I had a permanent paste button to send that whenever someone I know mentions aborted foetuses. It's, at best, misunderstanding and at worst a simple lie. 
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  • ColsCols Frets: 3992
    crunchman said:

    Australia has a right wing government doesn't it? Unless that's changed recently?

    Also, presumably Aus and NZ have access to vaccines as well, so they are not like the indigenous tribes you mention. I have no natural immunity but I've had two jabs, so I wouldn't expect (statistically) to die from Covid if I did catch it.

    The vaccines only target one protein on the virus - the famous spike protein.  I think the virus is made up of 28 proteins in total.

    Natural immunity will target other parts of the virus as well, so it is more broad based.  Where that will give a significant advantage is if there is a mutation in the spike protein.  That might make the vaccines significantly less effective where those who have natural immunity should still have a good amount of immunity, because their bodies recognise the other parts of the virus.
    Do you know why all of the vaccines specifically target the spike protein and not the other components?
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  • crunchmancrunchman Frets: 8103
    edited October 13
    crunchman said:

    Australia has a right wing government doesn't it? Unless that's changed recently?

    Also, presumably Aus and NZ have access to vaccines as well, so they are not like the indigenous tribes you mention. I have no natural immunity but I've had two jabs, so I wouldn't expect (statistically) to die from Covid if I did catch it.

    The vaccines only target one protein on the virus - the famous spike protein.  I think the virus is made up of 28 proteins in total.

    Natural immunity will target other parts of the virus as well, so it is more broad based.  Where that will give a significant advantage is if there is a mutation in the spike protein.  That might make the vaccines significantly less effective where those who have natural immunity should still have a good amount of immunity, because their bodies recognise the other parts of the virus.
    But by that measure (and those are very good points) surely everybody in the UK who has not had Covid, such as myself, are in the same boat? Considering the vast majority of us have not had it (even allowing for those who have had it but didn't realise).

    It's very possible that I'm just being stupid here so if I am please do tell me to shush I shan't take offence
    That's not true.

    By this point, the majority have had it.  We didn't have adequate testing last year, so working back from the fatality rate is the best way to work out how many had it.  There was a German study more than a year ago now that did antibody testing on a good sized sample of the population in a town that was an early hot spot, so they had a very good idea of how many had had it.  They came up with a fatality rate of 0.4% based on actual numbers, not the inflated figure that SAGE guessed at when they had no idea of the number of cases.

    That 0.4% might still have been a bit high, as not everybody who catches Covid develop antibodies.  There are documented cases of people who have had it, with a postive PCR test, but have not had antibodies when tested a month later.   I'm not sure how widespread that is, but if it's 1 in 10, it would drop the German figure by 10% or so.   Also, by last summer, dexamethasone will have reduced that by around 30%.

    We had around 120,000 deaths by the early part of this year.  If we use 0.4% as a something close to a realistic estimate of the fatality rate, not the SAGE overestimates, that means that 30 million people will have already had it by then.

    Since the beginning of this year, the fatality rate will have plummeted because of the vaccines, so we can't work back from that any more.  Looking at the numbers, there have been around 5 million positive tests since then, but not everyone who catches it gets tested.  The ONS study of the population consistently puts the number of people who have it at about double the number of positive tests, so that's another 10 million or so cases since the beginning of the year.

    Based on sensible estimates, we are looking at a total of around 40 million (out of a population of 68 million) who have had it. It might be 35 million, or it might be 45 million, but it's definitely not correct to say that the vast majority haven't had it.



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  • AdeyAdey Frets: 1176
    edited October 13
    Re the original post, it's  very easy to say the government got it wrong. There was not solution that no-one dies or the economy didn't get fecked. It was always going to be a bit of both.

    If you really want to judge how well the UK did, leave it 10 years, not straight after the event. Too many emotions running high.

    Better still, leave it 50 to 100 years and see if the UK has been completely abandoned and is a desolate wasteland.
    Spanish Flu doesn't seem to have had any long lasting effects has it, but I'm told it was quite a thing at the time.
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  • EricTheWearyEricTheWeary Frets: 12717
    Adey said:
    Re the original post, it's  very easy to say the government got it wrong. There was not solution that no-one dies or the economy didn't get fecked. It was always going to be a bit of both.

    If you really want to judge how well the UK did, leave it 10 years, not straight after the event. Too many emotions running high.

    Better still, leave it 50 to 100 years and see if the UK has been completely abandoned and is a desolate wasteland.
    Spanish Flu doesn't seem to have had any long lasting effects has it, but I'm told it was quite a thing at the time.
    Spanish Flu had some long lasting effects. As well as the huge death rate Spanish Flu did affect children and pregnant women so there was a generation who had health problems their whole lives. The ‘long’ version of it also left many adults with life long depression and fatigue.It also damaged specific communities and workforces, mining in particular ( almost every miner in 1919 would have had an underlying chest condition) and trashed some small economies. A death rate of around 5% in countries such as India created economic recessions. On a world wide scale decades to recover economically and for some individuals it blighted their entire lives. 
    Of course the one long lasting effect it should have had was  a general awareness of how to behave in a pandemic. 
    I’ll handle this Violet, you take your three hour break. 
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  • TanninTannin Frets: 795
    This might be a naive question, but for those saying that Australia and NZ are struggling due to low natural immunity - will their long term effect be any worse than our death figures and effects to date? With a lot of the world (at least places from where people might travel to Aus or NZ) taking up vaccinations, presumably there's less risk of it wreaking the same havoc

    They are clueless, Thecolourbox. Mindless, clueless lies for no good purpose. Here is a good example:

    FastEddie said:
    It also shows just how nasty a left wing government can be to their citizens. People in hospital with injuries from beatings by the Aus police, bs arrests and fines for not wearing a mask - pretty pointless.
     
    It is difficult to imagine how you could alter the quoted post to be even more wrong than it already is. The Australian government is not remotely, not even slightly "left-wing". It sits firmly on the right, following economic and social policies  broadly similar to those of Trump in the USA or Johnson in the UK. Nobody has been "beaten by the police". About a dozen police were hospitalised recently after a riot by extreme right-wingers and anti-vaxers, essentially Australia's answer to the Proud Boys in Trump's America. 

    Most of Australia is virus-free, only two states have infections in the wild: one of those (NSW) because the right-wing state government failed to lockdown promptly, and then compounded the error by having a mockdown instead of a lockdown. The premier has since resigned to face a corruption investigation. Meanwhile, that rogue state seeded multiple simultaneous infections in Victoria, which were then made much, much worse by the idiotic maskless riot. Those two states are the only places in Australia with Covid. Western Australia, Queensland, the Northern Territory, South Australia, and Tasmania are all Covid-free and doing fine. Shops are open, sport is played, the economy is in better shape than ever. Life has been fully normal in most of Australia for more than a year now. Lockdowns and border controls by the various state governments controlled and then eliminated the virus. Only for the slackness and hubris of the useless federal government and the disgraced former NSW premier's mob, the other two states  would be Covid-free also.

    Meanwhile, after a very long delay because the federal government failed to order a sensible quantity of vaccines until long after every other wealthy country in the world had done so, putting Australia last in the queue, vaccination rates are rapidly increasing. In the two-virus-ridden states, lockdown restrictions are easing now and are set to ease further soon. The five Covid-free states, of course, have no  significant restrictions except (of course) that you can't travel to them from a Covid-infected place without doing quarantine. The Covid-free states do not intend to allow Covid-infected people to enter until vaccination rates are a bit higher. Current first-dose rates vary between the states from 68% to 95% of adults, with the highest percentages in the infected states (because they were given priority while the vaccines were in short supply).

    (I am finally getting my first dose this afternoon after waiting most of the year for it. Mind you, my state has been 100% Covid-free for that entire time, so it's not as if there was any great hurry.)

    Thecolourbox, those saying that NZ and Oz are somehow "struggling" have no clue whatever. The death rate is 2.3% of the UK death rate on a population-adjusted basis. Vaccination rates are improving rapidly now that we finally have enough supply. The economy (the two Covid states aside) is in great shape - vastly better than anywhere where the virus was allowed to run largely uncontrolled. None of these facts will affect them, of course - they only believe stuff planted by all the nice people working at Russia Today.
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  • TanninTannin Frets: 795

    Spanish Flu had some long lasting effects. As well as the huge death rate Spanish Flu did affect children and pregnant women so there was a generation who had health problems their whole lives. The ‘long’ version of it also left many adults with life long depression and fatigue.It also damaged specific communities and workforces, mining in particular ( almost every miner in 1919 would have had an underlying chest condition) and trashed some small economies. A death rate of around 5% in countries such as India created economic recessions. On a world wide scale decades to recover economically and for some individuals it blighted their entire lives. 
    Of course the one long lasting effect it should have had was  a general awareness of how to behave in a pandemic. 
    Good points. Spanish Flu and its aftermath was also one of the underlying causes of the rise of Hitler, which in turn led to World War Two. It wasn't the cause, of course, but it was certainly a contributing factor. 
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  • FastEddie said:
    It also shows just how nasty a left wing government can be to their citizens. People in hospital with injuries from beatings by the Aus police, bs arrests and fines for not wearing a mask - pretty pointless. 
    I've always felt it's a shame that certain US forums are so rigid about not allowing 'political' comments, but when I read stuff such as the above, I can begin to understand why it might be a good thing.

    It might not be so bad if there was ever any tendency displayed to say 'Actually, I was wrong' as against 'No but, yeah but, Youtube but, this bloke in Ireland but'.
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  • The weather
    The health of the population
    The density of the population
    The amount of international travel

    Probably a ton of other variables that mean the outcomes of countries are going to be different. Like it or not, the UK is a huge player on the world stage. And that is partially responsible for our outcomes.

    The UK's deaths count is roughly in line with: Italy, Iran, Peru, France, Columbia, Indonesia, Argentina.
    source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:COVID-19_pandemic_data
    source: https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths

    Assuming you can rely on these stats, we're falling roughly in the middle in terms of how badly this virus has affected our population.

    No-one would pretend that policy has nothing to do with it. But some people do like to pretend that it's only policy that dictates our outcomes, and that simply isn't true.

    Bye!

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  • ToneControlToneControl Frets: 9907
    DavidR said:
    As ever with Covid it's best to try and look at the events of the last 2y from a non-political perspective. How have we done in the UK?

    In my view things got back to normal about July for the majority of people in the UK. So March 2020 to July 2021, approx. 16 months of the economy, peoples lives and human relationships having been stifled by an epidemic of a deadly disease. After a shaky start, we zoomed ahead with vaccination thanks to having developed the Astra-Zeneca vaccine, (which remains the vaccine with the greatest global reach of any vaccine, now being used by 175 countries worldwide) and a fantastic national effort not seen since the 2nd WW. Along the way the UK also discovered the beneficial effects of Dexamethasone in an entirely counter-intuitive piece of research done in a UK clinical trial.

    As so often happens in the UK, after our lead, many first world countries are doing better than us on the vaccination front. Not some though. As of today neither Germany nor the US have as many fully immunised people as a percentage of population. Also, there are 195countries in the world, and as of today only 14 of them have given more vaccines when measured by "doses administered per 100 people".

    Deaths? UK deaths per million population? UK so far 2,058. France 1,665. Germany 1,135. Spain 1,844. Brazil 2,849. Italy 2,178. USA 2,172. So we're not brilliant. Data quality will vary from country to country.

    Economy? The most difficult area to keep clear of politics and there are huge vested interests now trying to link progress, or the lack of it, with the management of Covid - plus Brexit. As, ever these tend to be along recently traditional lines. But the UK GDP has grown 23.6% YOY. Germany 9.4%. France 18.7%. USA 12.2% and unemplyment in the UK is 4,5%. Germany 3.6%. France 8.0%. (EU as a whole 7.5%). USA 4.8%. 

    I think the man from Mars - looking around our World - would think that the UK had done quite well! Not brilliantly but well.

    to be fair (and "More or less" covered this), the UK reported a larger GDP drop in 2020, largely because it counted things like "days at school lost" as GDP lost. Therefore, (from memory) about 8% of the UK GDP drop was not reported in other countries.
    Still looking good though I think
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  • ToneControlToneControl Frets: 9907
    This might be a naive question, but for those saying that Australia and NZ are struggling due to low natural immunity - will their long term effect be any worse than our death figures and effects to date? With a lot of the world (at least places from where people might travel to Aus or NZ) taking up vaccinations, presumably there's less risk of it wreaking the same havoc
    For me the "NZ and Aus struggling" is more about struggling with what to do about avoiding permanent lockdowns and restrictions
    Death rates there will be lower, but eventually they will have to re-start normal life, after getting the population vaccinated
    It might ironically take them longer to get back to normal
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  • ToneControlToneControl Frets: 9907
    FastEddie said:
    This might be a naive question, but for those saying that Australia and NZ are struggling due to low natural immunity - will their long term effect be any worse than our death figures and effects to date? With a lot of the world (at least places from where people might travel to Aus or NZ) taking up vaccinations, presumably there's less risk of it wreaking the same havoc
    If you think that many of the 'uncontacted' tribes in the Amazon would be wiped out by the common cold or something simple it raises an eyebrow.

    That is extreme but without immunity NZ and Aus will have moved toward that outcome. Not all the way of course, but toward it.
    It also shows just how nasty a left wing government can be to their citizens. People in hospital with injuries from beatings by the Aus police, bs arrests and fines for not wearing a mask - pretty pointless.

    Big pharma knows that natural immunity is by far the best (Project Veritas getting their scientists talking off the record).

    The effect is mental health, freedom, but also physical as the next strain could be devastating. 
    that video clip is being touted as "proof" that vaccines aren't as good.

    It's dumb: a real infection will give all your immune system the chance to develop resistance to covid
    Trouble is, the death rate is about 1% overall, and long term illness can result.
    So, yes those who survive covid and are unharmed will have "better immunity", a bit of a shame for those who died though eh?

    Can you imagine if we were proposing that people took a vaccine that had a 1% fatality risk, and left many unable to work?
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  • TanninTannin Frets: 795
    edited October 14

    For me the "NZ and Aus struggling" is more about struggling with what to do about avoiding permanent lockdowns and restrictions
    Death rates there will be lower, but eventually they will have to re-start normal life, after getting the population vaccinated
    It might ironically take them longer to get back to normal
    Most of Australia (and New Zealand too) "re-started normal life" this time last year. Five out of the seven* states are Covid-free and life is not only completely normal, it has been completely normal for a very long time. (Well over a year in my state.) 

    The two remaining states - both infected because a disgraced former premier now facing a corruption inquiry deliberately failed to implement the well-tried and effective snap mini-lockdown, trace and test policy which has been so successful in many places around the world - have very high vaccination rates and are in the process of removing the restrictions. (A few weeks too early in the case of NSW, so don't be surprised if they have a small surge in deaths there, but wait and see.)

    "Longer to get back to normal"? Reality 101: most of Australia (and New Zealand)  *is* back to normal and has been back to normal for a long time, more than a year for the main part.

    The death rate, by the way is not just "lower" it is massively lower. Per head of population, the UK is 44 times worse, the USA 47 times worse.

    * I'm counting the Northern Territory as a "state". Technically, it is a "territory", which is essentially the same thing. There is another  territory, the ACT, but it is small, landlocked, and entirely surrounded by NSW, which for most practical purposes it is a part of.

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  • GrangousierGrangousier Frets: 1479
    It's probably also worth pointing out that Project Veritas are an operation that prank people into saying things that can be edited to make them look guilty. Given that their entire raison d'être is to fabricate evidence for lies that can then be distributed to Fox and the mad fashy bollocksverse, it can be taken as 100% reliable that anything they say isn't true. 
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  • WiresDreamDisastersWiresDreamDisasters Frets: 16593
    edited October 14
    It's probably also worth pointing out that Project Veritas are an operation that prank people into saying things that can be edited to make them look guilty. Given that their entire raison d'être is to fabricate evidence for lies that can then be distributed to Fox and the mad fashy bollocksverse, it can be taken as 100% reliable that anything they say isn't true. 
    Total horseshit. But thanks for the opinion!


    Bye!

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  • crunchmancrunchman Frets: 8103
    FastEddie said:
    This might be a naive question, but for those saying that Australia and NZ are struggling due to low natural immunity - will their long term effect be any worse than our death figures and effects to date? With a lot of the world (at least places from where people might travel to Aus or NZ) taking up vaccinations, presumably there's less risk of it wreaking the same havoc
    If you think that many of the 'uncontacted' tribes in the Amazon would be wiped out by the common cold or something simple it raises an eyebrow.

    That is extreme but without immunity NZ and Aus will have moved toward that outcome. Not all the way of course, but toward it.
    It also shows just how nasty a left wing government can be to their citizens. People in hospital with injuries from beatings by the Aus police, bs arrests and fines for not wearing a mask - pretty pointless.

    Big pharma knows that natural immunity is by far the best (Project Veritas getting their scientists talking off the record).

    The effect is mental health, freedom, but also physical as the next strain could be devastating. 
    that video clip is being touted as "proof" that vaccines aren't as good.

    It's dumb: a real infection will give all your immune system the chance to develop resistance to covid
    Trouble is, the death rate is about 1% overall, and long term illness can result.
    So, yes those who survive covid and are unharmed will have "better immunity", a bit of a shame for those who died though eh?

    Can you imagine if we were proposing that people took a vaccine that had a 1% fatality risk, and left many unable to work?

    The death rate is nowhere near 1%.  SAGE has been massively underestimating the number who have had it all along.  That skews their death rate figures, and is a major reason why their predictions have been repeatedly wrong.

    That German study I quoted above gave a figure of 0.4%, and that was in the early days of the pandemic, before dexamethasone and other improvements in treatment.  Now it would be 0.3% or less.  It may be a bit higher here as we are fatter, and our air quality is worse, but it's still nowhere near 1%.
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  • ColsCols Frets: 3992
    To date, there have been 239 million confirmed cases worldwide and 4.87 million deaths.  Given that both case numbers and deaths may be underreported, this gives a 2% mortality rate.  That’s before getting into the impact of lost working time, expensive hospital treatment and long term debilitation in those who didn’t die.

    If we look more recently, in the past month there’s been approximately 14 million new cases and 200,000 deaths.  The mortality rate of 1.4% is less than it was, thanks to the impact of vaccination and more effective treatments, but still uncomfortably lethal.  

    I would not advocate deliberate SARS-COV-2 infection as a suitable alternative immunisation strategy.  It causes death, serious illness and long-term health effects in those afflicted.
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  • Cols said:
    To date, there have been 239 million confirmed cases worldwide and 4.87 million deaths.  Given that both case numbers and deaths may be underreported, this gives a 2% mortality rate.  That’s before getting into the impact of lost working time, expensive hospital treatment and long term debilitation in those who didn’t die.

    If we look more recently, in the past month there’s been approximately 14 million new cases and 200,000 deaths.  The mortality rate of 1.4% is less than it was, thanks to the impact of vaccination and more effective treatments, but still uncomfortably lethal.  

    I would not advocate deliberate SARS-COV-2 infection as a suitable alternative immunisation strategy.  It causes death, serious illness and long-term health effects in those afflicted.
    I mean.... this sort of stuff makes me squint a bit...



    Bye!

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