UK’s early response worst public health failure ever

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  • chotu495chotu495 Frets: 355
    edited October 17
    crunchman said:

    I think we are doing about 8 times as much testing per head of population as Germany (or thereabouts).   If they were doing as much testing as us, their number of cases would be a lot higher.

    Bandying about numbers that are not the same, and ignoring all other variables, really doesn't help make your case with anyone who has an understanding of numbers.  Unfortunately, most of the population don't have that understanding, so it becomes about who can shout loudest and post the most misleading graphs online.
    @crunchman - worldometer has yesterdays figures for total testing for UK as 318,440,917, and Germany total testing at 73,348,901.

    Testing / 1M pop for UK is 
    4,659,249, and Germany is 871,856.

    I make that as UK having done 5x (being generous, 5.3x) the number of tests per 1M pop of Germany, and not the 8x that you suggest. 

    Where are your figures from to support the “we are doing about 8 times as much testing per head of population as Germany (or thereabouts)” from? I may, of course, be misunderstanding  :)
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  • crunchmancrunchman Frets: 8105
    edited October 17
    chotu495 said:
    crunchman said:

    I think we are doing about 8 times as much testing per head of population as Germany (or thereabouts).   If they were doing as much testing as us, their number of cases would be a lot higher.

    Bandying about numbers that are not the same, and ignoring all other variables, really doesn't help make your case with anyone who has an understanding of numbers.  Unfortunately, most of the population don't have that understanding, so it becomes about who can shout loudest and post the most misleading graphs online.
    @crunchman - worldometer has yesterdays figures for total testing for UK as 318,440,917, and Germany total testing at 73,348,901.

    Testing / 1M pop for UK is 
    4,659,249, and Germany is 871,856.

    I make that as UK having done 5x (being generous, 5.3x) the number of tests per 1M pop of Germany, and not the 8x that you suggest. 

    Where are your figures from to support the “we are doing about 8 times as much testing per head of population as Germany (or thereabouts)” from? I may, of course, be misunderstanding 

    I was going on something somebody posted a few days ago.  I've just checked, and it is about right.


    That shows Germany doing 900,000 tests in the most recent week.

    Look here:


    As of the latest figures posted (currently 14/01/2021) we have done 6.9m tests in the last week.

    Edit:  Adjusting for population, it's more than 8 times higher.
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  • chotu495chotu495 Frets: 355
    Ok, makes sense, thanks  :)
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  • ToneControlToneControl Frets: 9916
    Ddigger said:


    the virus was all over the UK and US before anyone knew what it was
    I don't agree with that.

    30.01.2020. First two cases of C19 in UK.

    03.03.2020. UK government publishes C19 plan.

    11.03.2020 WHO declares C19 a pandemic.

    20.03.2020. Schools close.  In my experience, business's were implementing WFH 2-3 weeks prior to the school's closing.

    24.03.2020. 87 daily deaths, 422 total deaths.

    03.06.2020. Priti Patel, Home Secretary announced plans for 14 day quarantine for travellers entering the UK.

    05.06.2020. Total deaths pass 40,000.

    08.06.2020. 14 day quarantine requirements come into force.

    Schools closed 48 days after first recorded cases.
    nah, plenty of confirmed UK cases in December
    Italy had loads in Jan,
    I flagged this up as a disaster in early Feb
    WHO was playing political games, in the pocket of China for some reason, denying worldwide pandemic status

    Standard textbook pandemic response is that once a virus is widespread in a community, border closure is useless
    Other countries were lucky enough to get widespread community infection later, or had been better drilled (e.g. Taiwan) 
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  • ToneControlToneControl Frets: 9916
    chris78 said:
    we will all get infected sooner or later

    but... plan is to get 3rd jab Booster, etc and not seek out the virus

    my mate's 40 year old healthy brother (double-vaccinated) was bed-bound and nearly had to go into hospital last month - the vaccine probably saved his life, there will always be a chance that you will be seriously ill (as with flu, pneumonia, etc)

    I'm rarely wearing a mask, but still trying to reduce the chances of catching it just yet
    Also best not to have lots of people getting it at the same time
    Agree- nobody is going to try and get ill, but there seem to be a worrying large amount of people living in cloud cuckoo land that believe we can somehow avoid the virus forever. 

    There doesn’t appear any evidence that the 3rd jab makes you less likely to get seriously ill yet. Maybe it does, but i remember the makers being opposed to 3rd doses
    I don't try to get ill, but am going out to bars, restaurants, football grounds and shopping centres
    I still think about it though, and sometimes put on a mask in a public toilet. I think I would on the tube too
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  • ToneControlToneControl Frets: 9916
    crunchman said:
    Ddigger said:


    the virus was all over the UK and US before anyone knew what it was
    I don't agree with that.

    30.01.2020. First two cases of C19 in UK.

    03.03.2020. UK government publishes C19 plan.

    11.03.2020 WHO declares C19 a pandemic.

    20.03.2020. Schools close.  In my experience, business's were implementing WFH 2-3 weeks prior to the school's closing.

    24.03.2020. 87 daily deaths, 422 total deaths.

    03.06.2020. Priti Patel, Home Secretary announced plans for 14 day quarantine for travellers entering the UK.

    05.06.2020. Total deaths pass 40,000.

    08.06.2020. 14 day quarantine requirements come into force.

    Schools closed 48 days after first recorded cases.

    It's highly unlikely that the first cases in the UK were on 30/01/2020.  There was a documented case in France in mid December that was caught domestically, not by someone with any contact with China.  That wasn't known at the time, but a sample from someone who was in hospital with pneumonia was tested later.  That sample was taken on 27/12/2019, so given the time it takes to get ill enough to need hospital treatment, it was in the wild in France by mid December at the latest.  It was in Italy very early as well.  It was spreading in Europe before the authorities knew about it.

    There were almost certainly cases here before 30/01/2020 but they wouldn't have been recognised as Covid.  People would have just put them down as cold/flu.

    People going to Italy on skiing holidays in the February half term made it spread more quickly, but there is no way we could have avoided it here.

    Also, given what we knew at the time, letting it spread in the young and healthy parts of the community while shielding the elderly and vulnerable was the correct approach.  Herd immunity is the only long term way out, and we had no guarantee of a vaccine in any reasonable time frame.  There were a lot of experts who weren't expecting a vaccine to be available for 18 months, and there was a possibility that there wouldn't be a vaccine at all.  There had never been a successful vaccine against any coronavirus before.  Australia and NZ took a massive gamble and got away with it.

    Even so, the lockdowns are likely to kill more people long term than they saved.  There are already more people dying from non-Covid causes than normal.  We will have added a trillion pounds to the national debt before all is said and done. That's more than £20k for every single tax payer in the UK.  The interest on that will totally cripple the government going forwards, the NHS will be shortfunded, and people will die as a result for a generation to come.
    I still think that more people will die from the lockdown

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  • ToneControlToneControl Frets: 9916
    Tannin said:
    Tannin said:

    I've been seeing stories about repeated lockdowns. By most of Oz, do you mean excluding the cities?

    It took a long time to get the vaccinations done 
    No, I mean exactly what I said. What part of "most of Australia" is difficult to understand?

    Nearly all of Australia by area is Covid-free and has been for ages, and well over half the country by population.
    the "difficult part to understand" is that "most of Australia" is ambiguous, and could mean "most of the desert terrain" "most of the cities", or "most of the population". You've been vague, and now you're making out that you weren't


    I think you need to consider the death rates of those infected with covid, before rejecting a vaccine that (initially) caused 0.6 deaths per million vaccinations. I did the maths and took the vaccine.
    Which part of "nearly all of Australia by area" and ""well over half the country by population" is ambiguous?
     
    I agree  with you as regards the AstraZenca death rate. In an emergency situation (i.e., an uncontrolled outbreak like the UK or Sydney) taking AstraZeneca was and is a sensible thing to do. For you, the risk of Covid was higher than the vaccine risk, so you took the lower risk. I made the same calculation. Where I live, the risk of Covid was practically zero. I did the maths and (like you) took the lower risk, which was to wait for one of the safer vaccines. 

    The AstraZeneca blood clots made just on 150 Australians sick enough to require hospitalisation. Of those, eight are dead and many of the others face lifelong disability and medication dependence as a result. (Never mind the astronomical cost of hospital stays.)  Six million people took that vaccine. In other words, the odds have worked out to be 1 in 40,500 at last count.  It is a small risk, but take it when by being patient for a little while you can have one of the safer, more effective vaccines instead?

    nah
    you said

    Most of Australia (and New Zealand too) "re-started normal life" this time last year.

    That was your point I commented on, not the later versions after I asked for clarification
     You tell me what percentage of the population that means, I have no idea from what you said

    tbh I'm wondering if NZ in particular will remain self-isolated from the world
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  • ToneControlToneControl Frets: 9916
    roberty said:
    This might be a naive question, but for those saying that Australia and NZ are struggling due to low natural immunity - will their long term effect be any worse than our death figures and effects to date? With a lot of the world (at least places from where people might travel to Aus or NZ) taking up vaccinations, presumably there's less risk of it wreaking the same havoc
    For me the "NZ and Aus struggling" is more about struggling with what to do about avoiding permanent lockdowns and restrictions
    Death rates there will be lower, but eventually they will have to re-start normal life, after getting the population vaccinated
    It might ironically take them longer to get back to normal
    New Zealand was normal for about 18 months while we were all stuck in the house
    as was the Isle of Man
    by virtue of remoteness and ability to impose border controls before mass community infection

    what's the exit strategy for NZ? that's my point

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  • ToneControlToneControl Frets: 9916
    crunchman said:
    Ddigger said:
    If it was in the UK in December 2019, where are the excess deaths?

    Think it through.   Initially there would have only been a handful of cases.  Given the fatality rate is under 1%, and probably well under, you would need tens of thousands of cases for it to get noticeable in the numbers of deaths.

    It may or may not have been in the UK in Dec 2019, but it was definitely in Europe - see my post above about the case in France.

    We have so much traffic to and from Europe that there is no way that we could have kept it out.  We have thousands, possibly tens of thousands, of lorries coming in every day.  We are totally dependent on those deliveries, as the supply chain issues we are having now show.  It's got into NZ with all of their restrictions, and their isolated place in the world.  With all the unavoidable comings and goings here, the NZ approach would never have worked here, even if it wasn't here already - which it almost certainly was.
    Coronavirus doctor's diary: The strange case of the choir that coughed in January - BBC News
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  • ToneControlToneControl Frets: 9916
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  • ToneControlToneControl Frets: 9916
    Tannin said:
    WDD, everything I have told you about in this thread is verifiable and documented. I repeat: pick whichever part you care to doubt and I will provide you with reputable, verifiable sources. It is all on the public record. 

    Chris you offensively cry "total bullshit" but fail to recognise that my "most of Australia" term is true no matter how you measure it - by area, by population, by postcode, it makes no great difference. Most of Australia (measured any way you want to measure it) is Covid free and out of lockdown. That is a plain fact, readily verifiable.

    most of Australia is human-free
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  • ToneControlToneControl Frets: 9916
    Cols said:
    To bring a bit of perspective:

    Cases in the last month:
    UK:  983,145  
    Australia: 60,176
    New Zealand: 4,898

    Deaths from COVID in the last month:
    UK:  3,513
    Australia: 391
    New Zealand: 28

    If you regard the first basic function of government to be “try not to kill off the electorate”, Australia/NZ are still doing considerably better than the UK.  

    They may not be doing quite as well as their previous glowing performance, but they have an awfully long way to go before they get anywhere near the unmitigated shitshow we have here.
    irrelevant, the starting point was way different
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  • ToneControlToneControl Frets: 9916
    Here ya go. I even whacked them into the list by order for you:



    So those are the numbers of Western nations. The UK is around the middle, maybe a little higher than average. But fairly dwarfed by some big nations.

    But those numbers need to be contextualized with more data. I have NO idea right now why Peru has so many more deaths than the UK. It could be policy, and my gut feel is that it is because they've consistently had more deaths since mid 2020.

    Whereas for the UK, we've come and go throughout. Which implies to me less emphasis on policy, and more emphasis on population response to policy and environmental factors.
    as well as that, most countries don't report covid deaths in full
    "More or Less" have covered this many times
    "Excess deaths" is the figure to look for
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  • ToneControlToneControl Frets: 9916
    crunchman said:
    Our definition of deaths is broad as well.  We are including anyone who died within 28 days of a positive test - of any cause.  I think there was as study that said 30% of the deaths weren't actually from Covid.  Conversely, there will be a small number that die of Covid more than 28 days after the test.

    Those "league tables" of deaths are meaningless unless everyone counts the same way, and they don't.
    AFAIK Spain was famous for the total deaths falling after they decided to change the rules, and also that some deaths weren't recorded because the results arrived at the wrong time or something
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  • ToneControlToneControl Frets: 9916
    edited October 17
    cruxiform said:
    and?
    UK is letting the virus be exposed to those who have not been vaccinated, with a manageable hospitalisation rate, deaths at the same rate as a bad flu year
    This is still half time on the fatalities, you need to wait until end of 2022 for that, at least

    this graph is useless anyway, you need "excess deaths per million population", or failing that "covid deaths per million per day"
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  • chris78chris78 Frets: 5207
    Here ya go. I even whacked them into the list by order for you:



    So those are the numbers of Western nations. The UK is around the middle, maybe a little higher than average. But fairly dwarfed by some big nations.

    But those numbers need to be contextualized with more data. I have NO idea right now why Peru has so many more deaths than the UK. It could be policy, and my gut feel is that it is because they've consistently had more deaths since mid 2020.

    Whereas for the UK, we've come and go throughout. Which implies to me less emphasis on policy, and more emphasis on population response to policy and environmental factors.
    as well as that, most countries don't report covid deaths in full
    "More or Less" have covered this many times
    "Excess deaths" is the figure to look for
    There’s even a problem with excess deaths. We’re seeing a massive increase in people dying at home and very few of those home deaths are COVID related.
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  • ToneControlToneControl Frets: 9916
    chris78 said:
    Here ya go. I even whacked them into the list by order for you:



    So those are the numbers of Western nations. The UK is around the middle, maybe a little higher than average. But fairly dwarfed by some big nations.

    But those numbers need to be contextualized with more data. I have NO idea right now why Peru has so many more deaths than the UK. It could be policy, and my gut feel is that it is because they've consistently had more deaths since mid 2020.

    Whereas for the UK, we've come and go throughout. Which implies to me less emphasis on policy, and more emphasis on population response to policy and environmental factors.
    as well as that, most countries don't report covid deaths in full
    "More or Less" have covered this many times
    "Excess deaths" is the figure to look for
    There’s even a problem with excess deaths. We’re seeing a massive increase in people dying at home and very few of those home deaths are COVID related.
    true, but during the first year of the epidemic, excess deaths would be a more reliable measure in many countries
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  • The "logicians" amongst us don't really like it when the facts don't fit their narrative.

    Bye!

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  • ColsCols Frets: 4010
    As to the report that kicked off this thread.... there are claims that it says the pandemic has been the UK's worst public health failure ever.

    Except the report doesn't state that. Anywhere.

    Maybe someone could explain to me how a quote from a report that doesn't actually exist, could even begin to reflect reality.
    It’s on page 33.

    “… decisions on lockdowns and social distancing during the early weeks of the pandemic—and the advice that led to them—rank as one of the most important public health failures the United Kingdom has ever experienced. This happened despite the UK counting on some of the best expertise available anywhere in the world, and despite having an open, democratic system that allowed plentiful challenge. Painful though it is, the UK must learn what lessons it can of why this happened if we are to ensure it is not repeated.

    https://committees.parliament.uk/publications/7497/documents/78688/default/

    It’s actually an extremely frank examination of the UK’s successes - notably the vaccine programme, but also clear and consistent public messaging in the first lockdown - and failures (everything else), along with recommendations for the future.  It’s worth reading.
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  • Cols said:
    As to the report that kicked off this thread.... there are claims that it says the pandemic has been the UK's worst public health failure ever.

    Except the report doesn't state that. Anywhere.

    Maybe someone could explain to me how a quote from a report that doesn't actually exist, could even begin to reflect reality.
    It’s on page 33.

    “… decisions on lockdowns and social distancing during the early weeks of the pandemic—and the advice that led to them—rank as ***one of*** the most important public health failures the United Kingdom has ever experienced. This happened despite the UK counting on some of the best expertise available anywhere in the world, and despite having an open, democratic system that allowed plentiful challenge. Painful though it is, the UK must learn what lessons it can of why this happened if we are to ensure it is not repeated.

    https://committees.parliament.uk/publications/7497/documents/78688/default/

    It’s actually an extremely frank examination of the UK’s successes - notably the vaccine programme, but also clear and consistent public messaging in the first lockdown - and failures (everything else), along with recommendations for the future.  It’s worth reading.
    Let me just add some emphasis and leave it there.

    Bye!

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