UK’s early response worst public health failure ever

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  • chris78chris78 Frets: 5197
    Come on, cols. You decide to have an analytical mind when it suits you, then you quote small sections from a report when it suits your narrative.
    Consider the following:
    1) Its a report before the end of the pandemic. Therefore impossible to judge.
    2) Jeremy Hunt was and is one of the committee chairs. Yup, the same Jeremy Hunt who was health secretary for a long time. The same Jeremy Hunt who reorganised a health system that wasn’t able to cope. Now, it’d be useful for Mr Hunt, who has cabinet and/or leadership aspirations and is no friend of the PM to move blame elsewhere?
    3). Then consider the other chair, Greg Clark MP. He’s a really good MP and localish to me. However, Mr Clark was a remainer who voted against the government over brexit and gave it a fairly torrid time. Not really a friend of the PM. It would be useful for someone like Mr Clark to send blame in the direction of the PM and other cabinet ministers who its fair to say, he’s not on terms with. 
    4) Consider who they called for evidence. They heard from Carl Heneghan, Sunetra Gupta et al. Oh no, they didn’t did they? They heard from the PM’s disgraced chief of staff etc. 

    I could go on, but you get the idea. Now, the report might be spot on and it’s conclusions sound, but we don’t have a clue at this stage as the pandemic isn’t over. At this stage, it’s looking like Sweden got it very right, but again, that might change.
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  • ColsCols Frets: 3992
    And to quote the very first paragraph from the BBC article which kicked off this thread:

    “ The UK's failure to do more to stop Covid spreading early in the pandemic was one of the country's worst public health failuresa report by MPs says.

    I’m trying to think what the other major public health failures of a similar scale might be.  Any thoughts beyond Spanish flu?
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  • ReverendReverend Frets: 2790
    Cols said:
    And to quote the very first paragraph from the BBC article which kicked off this thread:

    “ The UK's failure to do more to stop Covid spreading early in the pandemic was one of the country's worst public health failuresa report by MPs says.

    I’m trying to think what the other major public health failures of a similar scale might be.  Any thoughts beyond Spanish flu?
    Nu metal? Oasis?
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  • crunchmancrunchman Frets: 8103
    Cols said:
    And to quote the very first paragraph from the BBC article which kicked off this thread:

    “ The UK's failure to do more to stop Covid spreading early in the pandemic was one of the country's worst public health failuresa report by MPs says.

    I’m trying to think what the other major public health failures of a similar scale might be.  Any thoughts beyond Spanish flu?

    Air pollution for a start.  Official figures are 40,000 premature deaths per year, and it's been going on for years.  The number of deaths dwarfs Covid.  In fact, air pollution made the Covid death toll worse.
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  • WiresDreamDisastersWiresDreamDisasters Frets: 16593
    edited October 20
    Cols said:
    And to quote the very first paragraph from the BBC article which kicked off this thread:

    “ The UK's failure to do more to stop Covid spreading early in the pandemic was one of the country's worst public health failuresa report by MPs says.

    I’m trying to think what the other major public health failures of a similar scale might be.  Any thoughts beyond Spanish flu?
    Heart disease causes 160,000 deaths a year. Not really seeing campaigns to get people fitter and more active - which may have drastically impacted upon the number of covid deaths.


    And the BBC headline says:

    Covid: UK's early response worst public health failure ever, MPs say

    So we can put that down to shit journalism I spoze.

    Bye!

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  • ToneControlToneControl Frets: 9907
    Cols said:
    And to quote the very first paragraph from the BBC article which kicked off this thread:

    “ The UK's failure to do more to stop Covid spreading early in the pandemic was one of the country's worst public health failuresa report by MPs says.

    I’m trying to think what the other major public health failures of a similar scale might be.  Any thoughts beyond Spanish flu?
    how about this, perhaps the pattern sounds familiar:

    1957–1958 influenza pandemic


    The first cases were reported in Guizhou of southern China, in 1956 or in early 1957.

    They were soon reported in the neighbouring province of Yunnan in late February or early March 1957.

    By the middle of March, the flu had spread all over China.

    The People's Republic of China was not a member of the World Health Organization at the time (not until 1981[12]), and did not inform other countries about the outbreak


    In late June, the pandemic reached the United Kingdom

    • An estimated 33,000 deaths in the United Kingdom were attributed to the 1957–1958 flu outbreak. The disease was estimated to have a 3% rate of complications and 0.3% mortality in the United Kingdom.
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  • ToneControlToneControl Frets: 9907
    Cols said:
    And to quote the very first paragraph from the BBC article which kicked off this thread:

    “ The UK's failure to do more to stop Covid spreading early in the pandemic was one of the country's worst public health failuresa report by MPs says.

    I’m trying to think what the other major public health failures of a similar scale might be.  Any thoughts beyond Spanish flu?
    This one was particularly awful

    The Haemophilia Society estimates that 4689 people with haemophilia and other bleeding disorders were infected with HIV and viral hepatitis by infected blood products in the UK in the 1970s and 1980s. More than 3000 of these individuals have since died.
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  • chris78chris78 Frets: 5197
    Cols said:
    And to quote the very first paragraph from the BBC article which kicked off this thread:

    “ The UK's failure to do more to stop Covid spreading early in the pandemic was one of the country's worst public health failuresa report by MPs says.

    I’m trying to think what the other major public health failures of a similar scale might be.  Any thoughts beyond Spanish flu?
    "A report by MPs says"
    see my analysis above.
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  • AdeyAdey Frets: 1176
    Cols said:
    And to quote the very first paragraph from the BBC article which kicked off this thread:

    “ The UK's failure to do more to stop Covid spreading early in the pandemic was one of the country's worst public health failuresa report by MPs says.

    I’m trying to think what the other major public health failures of a similar scale might be.  Any thoughts beyond Spanish flu?

    Smoking?

    It does raise a lot of tax and helps support the NHS though. And the average smoker pays more in tax than the cost of treatment of his smoking related diseases. So that's a bit of a plus I suppose...
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  • ColsCols Frets: 3992
    chris78 said:
    Come on, cols. You decide to have an analytical mind when it suits you, then you quote small sections from a report when it suits your narrative.
    I quoted that one section because Drew couldn’t find the bit about it being one of the country's worst public health failures, and suspected shenanigans.

    I haven’t quoted other parts because people can very easily click on the link and read it themselves, if they’ve got the time and inclination to read through over 100 pages on how UK government policy has influenced the course of a pandemic so far, for good or for ill.

    And that’s the great thing about it.  It’s published.  You can read it.  You know who the authors are, and can assess what knowledge and expertise  they have in that field.  You can see their political affiliations - a cross-party committee with over 50% of the members coming from the Conservatives.

    Unlike certain fictitious studies on the economic impact of mask mandates…

    . Now, the report might be spot on and it’s conclusions sound, but we don’t have a clue at this stage as the pandemic isn’t over. At this stage, it’s looking like Sweden got it very right, but again, that might change.
    The report isn’t looking at the pandemic.  The evidence, conclusions and recommendations relate to the first wave of the pandemic in the spring and summer of 2020, which is very much over.  Lessons can be learned from it and applied to future waves.
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  • Cols said:
    chris78 said:
    Come on, cols. You decide to have an analytical mind when it suits you, then you quote small sections from a report when it suits your narrative.
    I quoted that one section because Drew couldn’t find the bit about it being one of the country's worst public health failures, and suspected shenanigans.
    No. I couldn't find the bit about it being THE WORST - there's a big frickin' difference between those two statements!!

    Bye!

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  • ColsCols Frets: 3992
    Cols said:
    chris78 said:
    Come on, cols. You decide to have an analytical mind when it suits you, then you quote small sections from a report when it suits your narrative.
    I quoted that one section because Drew couldn’t find the bit about it being one of the country's worst public health failures, and suspected shenanigans.
    No. I couldn't find the bit about it being THE WORST - there's a big frickin' difference between those two statements!!
    That explains the lack of foliage up top; too much time spent splitting hairs ;)
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  • This makes for more fairly uncomfortable reading for the government I'd imagine. 

    https://goodlawproject.org/news/they-let-covid-rip-through-care-homes/

    My Trading Feedback    |    You Bring The Band

    Just because you're paranoid, don't mean they're not after you
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  • Cols said:
    Cols said:
    chris78 said:
    Come on, cols. You decide to have an analytical mind when it suits you, then you quote small sections from a report when it suits your narrative.
    I quoted that one section because Drew couldn’t find the bit about it being one of the country's worst public health failures, and suspected shenanigans.
    No. I couldn't find the bit about it being THE WORST - there's a big frickin' difference between those two statements!!
    That explains the lack of foliage up top; too much time spent splitting hairs ;)
    No mate. It's called accuracy, and the scientific mindset. Too many dum-dums pull the "semantics" card. Don't be one of them.

    Bye!

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  • ColsCols Frets: 3992
    Cols said:
    Cols said:
    chris78 said:
    Come on, cols. You decide to have an analytical mind when it suits you, then you quote small sections from a report when it suits your narrative.
    I quoted that one section because Drew couldn’t find the bit about it being one of the country's worst public health failures, and suspected shenanigans.
    No. I couldn't find the bit about it being THE WORST - there's a big frickin' difference between those two statements!!
    That explains the lack of foliage up top; too much time spent splitting hairs ;)
    No mate. It's called accuracy, and the scientific mindset. Too many dum-dums pull the "semantics" card. Don't be one of them.
    You may feel that the difference between “biggest fuckup ever” and “one of the biggest fuckups ever” is incredibly significant.  I can’t help that; those are your feelings.

    What is, however, clear is that with 52,000 dead in the first wave it was a fuckup, and a major one.  

    And after recognising that you’ve fucked up, it’s a good idea to look at how you fucked up and what you might do to avoid it in future.
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  • Cols said:

    And after recognising that you’ve fucked up, it’s a good idea to look at how you fucked up and what you might do to avoid it in future.
    Which they have done - so what's your point?

    Bye!

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  • chris78chris78 Frets: 5197
    Cols said:
    chris78 said:
    Come on, cols. You decide to have an analytical mind when it suits you, then you quote small sections from a report when it suits your narrative.
    I quoted that one section because Drew couldn’t find the bit about it being one of the country's worst public health failures, and suspected shenanigans.

    I haven’t quoted other parts because people can very easily click on the link and read it themselves, if they’ve got the time and inclination to read through over 100 pages on how UK government policy has influenced the course of a pandemic so far, for good or for ill.

    And that’s the great thing about it.  It’s published.  You can read it.  You know who the authors are, and can assess what knowledge and expertise  they have in that field.  You can see their political affiliations - a cross-party committee with over 50% of the members coming from the Conservatives.

    Unlike certain fictitious studies on the economic impact of mask mandates…

    . Now, the report might be spot on and it’s conclusions sound, but we don’t have a clue at this stage as the pandemic isn’t over. At this stage, it’s looking like Sweden got it very right, but again, that might change.
    The report isn’t looking at the pandemic.  The evidence, conclusions and recommendations relate to the first wave of the pandemic in the spring and summer of 2020, which is very much over.  Lessons can be learned from it and applied to future waves.
    That last paragraph is where you’re so wrong, it’s scary. Take Sweden. Did shit in the first wave due to care homes. Look fucking amazing now. That’s why you can’t judge success or failure now.

    Youre also making a fairly stark assumption that governments can dictate how a virus behaves. I’m calling bullshit of the highest order on that. 
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  • AdeyAdey Frets: 1176
    I am one of the country's best guitar players....

    One of the 62,975,356 best guitar players. But pretty close to the bottom of that list I'm afraid.
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  • ColsCols Frets: 3992
    Cols said:

    And after recognising that you’ve fucked up, it’s a good idea to look at how you fucked up and what you might do to avoid it in future.
    Which they have done - so what's your point?
    My point, if there is one, is that the government are under no obligation to follow the report’s conclusions and recommendations on how to avoid further fuckups.  

    Downplaying how poorly the UK performed during the first wave - or seeking to minimise the government’s culpability in how badly things went - makes it easier to ignore the recommendations.  If there wasn’t really a problem which was driven by government policy, they don’t need to change their approach, right?

    One of the major findings of the report was that the deliberate decision to delay introduction of restrictions in the face of a rapidly spreading pandemic led to a higher initial death toll than would have been seen otherwise.  Sound familiar?

    Given that Savid Javid’s message yesterday was “Go and get your booster shots, otherwise we’ll have to belatedly reintroduce restrictions when the shit really hits the fan”, it appears that this lesson has not been learned.


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  • ColsCols Frets: 3992
    chris78 said:
    Cols said:

    chris78 said:
    . Now, the report might be spot on and it’s conclusions sound, but we don’t have a clue at this stage as the pandemic isn’t over. At this stage, it’s looking like Sweden got it very right, but again, that might change.
    The report isn’t looking at the pandemic.  The evidence, conclusions and recommendations relate to the first wave of the pandemic in the spring and summer of 2020, which is very much over.  Lessons can be learned from it and applied to future waves.
    That last paragraph is where you’re so wrong, it’s scary. Take Sweden. Did shit in the first wave due to care homes. Look fucking amazing now. That’s why you can’t judge success or failure now.

    I’m not entirely sure why you’re so determined to switch topic to Sweden.  The report is about the UK government’s response.  Nevertheless...

    My Swedish friends are happy that the 2m social distancing rule is toast and they can get back to the Swedish norm of 5m, and case numbers are nice and low right now.  That doesn’t mean they didn’t learn from the first wave.  Their overall deaths per 100,000 far exceed those of their Scandinavian neighbours, and they’d rather not have that happen again.  The Swedish government already recognised back in June that their response in the first wave was deficient and they could learn from the underlying failings. 

    If you’d like a little thought experiment of “What might have happened if the UK had adopted Sweden’s approach?  Or if they’d adopted ours?”, you might like this paper.

    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-95699-9

    It’ll give you a stirring of British pride; the study concluded that if Sweden had adopted the UK’s approach, their mortality would have more than halved.  Conversely, had had the UK adopted Swedish policy our COVID mortality - already pretty shocking - would have approximately doubled.

    Youre also making a fairly stark assumption that governments can dictate how a virus behaves. I’m calling bullshit of the highest order on that. 
    I haven’t made that assumption anywhere.  Viruses don’t have any behaviour.  They are not sentient; in fact, we can’t even agree on whether or not they’re alive.  Their only objective is to make more copies of themselves, using you.

    They don’t mean to do you any harm.  You’re not tasty, or a threat; you’re just a useful piece of molecular machinery they can hijack to make more virus particles.  Unfortunately for you, the act of breaking into your cells, taking over the appropriate parts and getting out again tends to leave a trail of devastation in its wake.

    So governments can’t influence the behaviour of viruses.  What they can do is influence the behaviour of people, which controls the spread of viruses.  That’s what large sections of the report are about; I really do recommend you actually read it.
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