Increasing infection rates

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Sajid Javid has said that infection rates could reach 100,000 per day. His plan is - do nothing. Thoughts?
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  • axisusaxisus Frets: 21265
    Looks to me like we are heading for another disaster. It seems to me that this govt have got pretty much everything wrong so far with managing the pandemic. Their one success was the vaccine, but even that has fallen away as a success now. We are up sh*t creek without a paddle and heading for a 200ft waterfall. 
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  • ColsCols Frets: 3975
    The BMA are distinctly unimpressed.  “It is wilfully negligent of the Westminster government not to be taking any further action to reduce the spread of infection

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/oct/20/british-medical-association-says-time-is-now-for-covid-plan-b
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  • StevepageStevepage Frets: 1875
    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-57877033.amp

    We were told back in July if we unlocked we’d have up to 200,000 infections per day. So we’ve heard it before. Cases then lowered, hovered for quite some time and have started to increase over the past week or so.

    I wouldn’t say the government are doing nothing, they’re following what Israel did, they gave boosters  to the most vulnerable.  which in turn decreased their rate of infections and kept them out of hospital.

    I’d rather they did this than put restrictions on peoples lives again. 






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  • steven70steven70 Frets: 899
    edited October 21
    Sajid Javid has said that infection rates could reach 100,000 per day. His plan is - do nothing. Thoughts?
    If he was planning to do nothing, he would not have said this.
    He is just preparing the ground for lockdowns and vaccine mandates.
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  • chris78chris78 Frets: 5111
    Cols said:
    The BMA are distinctly unimpressed.  “It is wilfully negligent of the Westminster government not to be taking any further action to reduce the spread of infection

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/oct/20/british-medical-association-says-time-is-now-for-covid-plan-b
    A trade union wanting their members to work less hard? Who'd have though it, eh?
    I did enjoy the BMA's detailed analysis on the cost/benefit analysis of reintroducing restrictions though. Oh yeah, they didn't do that did they?
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  • JalapenoJalapeno Frets: 5599
    If I could get 'Flu & Covid booster shots I would in a flash.

    They've devolved responsibility to local commissioning groups and GPs, result = a predictable total shitshow !
    Imagine something sharp and witty here ......

    Feedback
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  • ColsCols Frets: 3975
    chris78 said:
    Cols said:
    The BMA are distinctly unimpressed.  “It is wilfully negligent of the Westminster government not to be taking any further action to reduce the spread of infection

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/oct/20/british-medical-association-says-time-is-now-for-covid-plan-b
    A trade union wanting their members to work less hard? Who'd have though it, eh?
    When their “hard work” involves treating people who are seriously ill with COVID, or dealing with the massive backlog of other cases, they’re perhaps not being entirely self-centred in wanting the government to take action now.  Might be beneficial for a few members of the public as well.

    I did enjoy the BMA's detailed analysis on the cost/benefit analysis of reintroducing restrictions though. Oh yeah, they didn't do that did they?
    No, they didn’t.  They’re medical doctors.  I would no more expect them to come out with cost/benefit analyses than I would expect, say, a financial advisor to advise on medical matters and epidemiology. 
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  • chris78chris78 Frets: 5111
    Cols said:

    When their “hard work” involves treating people who are seriously ill with COVID, or dealing with the massive backlog of other cases, they’re perhaps not being entirely self-centred in wanting the government to take action now.  Might be beneficial for a few members of the public as well.

    No, they didn’t.  They’re medical doctors.  I would no more expect them to come out with cost/benefit analyses than I would expect, say, a financial advisor to advise on medical matters and epidemiology. 
    Let me correct your first statement. Some of the members of the BMA will be actively treating COVID patients or involved in backlogs. Medical students can be members. Retirees can be members. Dentists can be members etc. Some of the active members of course will be GPs who have widely been criticised for refusing to see patients (such as in my local practice). 
    Now we've established that you're wrong about that, you then need to consider their aims. They help with contract negotiations, they campaign, lobby for change and "get Doctors voices heard in Parliament." They "demand payrises", "provide briefings and reports that enforce change." Their priority for covid, according to their own website is to have a "careful approach to easing lockdown restrictions" ie., they're pro-lockdown. 
    So, basically cols, you've got a pro-lockdown trade union telling the government they want a lockdown. 

    Care to explain why anybody would ever enforce a government plan without a cost/benefit analysis? Yes, I'm a financial adviser (thanks for the dig), but I've got a Politics degree. Good policies get enacted when people consider risks and benefits (oddly which applies to financial advice to). Without that, any demand is meaningless, even if it does fit your own personal narrative, cols. Let me explain, just for absolute clarity, why thats important. If we impose restrictions again, there will be an economic cost. Now, say that cost is 2% GDP (and I've plucked that out of the air for clarity, but it's not unrealistic). UK GDP last year was $2.7trillion. You'd be talking about a cost to the economy thats utterly eye watering - over £50bn. Clearly if you're going to impose those kind of costs, you'd need an incredible public health case for it. To put it into context, £50bn would be around 2/3rds of what we spend on Education as a country. 

    That's why it's so important to get away from the shrill bullshit the media are keen to push. 
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  • crunchmancrunchman Frets: 8081
    I think there is some waning immunity in the population, but the main increase in cases has been driven by school kids.  We are now at the point where most school kids have had it.  Whitty was saying 3 or 4 weeks ago that 50% of kids (possibly talking about secondary age) had had it, and SAGE generally underestimate the number who have had it.  We should be able to take 50% as a minimum at that point.

    In the last couple of weeks the ONS have been reporting 8 to 10% of secondary school kids with it at any one time.  PCR tests can test positive for a week or two after infection, so the number of infections might be a less than that, but it's pretty safe to say that at least 70% of that age group have had it, and quite possibly more.

    15% (maybe more now) of that group have had a vaccine as well.  There will be a lot of overlap with the group that have had it, but there will be immunity in some of the kids who have not yet had it.

    With current rates of transmission, plus more immunity from vaccines, there will be very few of that age group left to infect if it carries on at current rates for another week or two, and cases should start to fall .  Half term next week should accelerate that fall.

    I expect that the 100,000 cases per day prediction is going to be yet another one that proves to be incorrect.
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  • John_AJohn_A Frets: 3747
    100,000 cases per day isn't my worry, it's the admissions and the deaths which both seem to be creeping up as well.  If that's because of the vaccine waning and they don't get a one on with boosters then it could get grim.  Let's hope not.
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  • BarquentineBarquentine Frets: 149
    Has anyone other than Sajid Javid talked about 100,000 infections per day? Is this is a figure he's made up so that anything substantially lower will look like a success?
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  • maharg101maharg101 Frets: 154
    chris78 said:

    If we impose restrictions again, there will be an economic cost. 
    I view this with the same sort of side-eye I give to statements along the lines of "There's not enough money to prevent climate change". Sure, in the broken system that we live in, it's true enough, and evidently I'm in a minority in imagining a time after unfettered capitalism putting the economy ahead of the wellbeing of the population. It doesn't make me wrong tho ;)
    This one goes to eleven

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  • chris78chris78 Frets: 5111
    maharg101 said:
    chris78 said:

    If we impose restrictions again, there will be an economic cost. 
    I view this with the same sort of side-eye I give to statements along the lines of "There's not enough money to prevent climate change". Sure, in the broken system that we live in, it's true enough, and evidently I'm in a minority in imagining a time after unfettered capitalism putting the economy ahead of the wellbeing of the population. It doesn't make me wrong tho ;)
    Mate, that isn't capitalism. In a totalitarian socialist country, if you stop people working, there will be an economic cost. Thats just a fact. 
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  • maharg101maharg101 Frets: 154
    chris78 said:

    Mate, that isn't capitalism. In a totalitarian socialist country, if you stop people working, there will be an economic cost. Thats just a fact. 
    I said nothing about stopping people working. Neither did I mention Socialism, although I would prefer it to the current economic fairy tale. But as you raise it, Socialism guarantees employment for those that want it. Personally I'd like to see universal basic income and a land tax implemented. 
    This one goes to eleven

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  • ColsCols Frets: 3975
    It’s rather akin to someone shooing the fire brigade away from his burning house, because of all the water damage they’re going to do to his nice furniture with their beastly fire hoses.
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  • chotu495chotu495 Frets: 355
    Am beginning to suspect Sajid Javid is from Sweden 
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  • maharg101maharg101 Frets: 154
    Cols said:
    It’s rather akin to someone shooing the fire brigade away from his burning house, because of all the water damage they’re going to do to his nice furniture with their beastly fire hoses.
    Yep, and the guitars. Let them burn !!

    What is the economy for, anyway ? 
    This one goes to eleven

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  • ColsCols Frets: 3975
    chotu495 said:
    Am beginning to suspect Sajid Javid is from Sweden 
    Damned good disguise.
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  • BellycasterBellycaster Frets: 4964
    See 10000000 other comments in 100 other threads for Endless Circular argument!
    Is this a vision of normality I see before my eyes?
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  • BellycasterBellycaster Frets: 4964
    Cols said:
    chotu495 said:
    Am beginning to suspect Sajid Javid is from Sweden 
    Damned good disguise.
    Yep, he shaved all that Blonde Hair off to fool us. He also got rid of that Helmet with the Horns on.
    Is this a vision of normality I see before my eyes?
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