Increasing infection rates

What's Hot
2456713

Comments

  • AdeyAdey Frets: 1176
    I'm not an expert, but as I understand it, any sort of vaccination doesn't put an invisible barrier around people that stops the virus even getting close to you.

    The virus can still enter your system and the antibodies you have start attacking it earlier than you would manage otherwise.

    So if I were to walk into a room full of the Measles virus, even though I've had my Measles innoculation, the virus could enter my system. My immune system would then start attacking it. But if I was tested the next day, I might test positive for Measles. Yet, if tested two days later it would be gone.

    Is it not the same for Coronavirus? If you keep testing as much as we are, you're going to keep finding it?
    0reaction image LOL 0reaction image Wow! 2reaction image Wisdom
  • m_cm_c Frets: 768
    Adey said:
    I'm not an expert, but as I understand it, any sort of vaccination doesn't put an invisible barrier around people that stops the virus even getting close to you.

    The virus can still enter your system and the antibodies you have start attacking it earlier than you would manage otherwise.

    So if I were to walk into a room full of the Measles virus, even though I've had my Measles innoculation, the virus could enter my system. My immune system would then start attacking it. But if I was tested the next day, I might test positive for Measles. Yet, if tested two days later it would be gone.

    Is it not the same for Coronavirus? If you keep testing as much as we are, you're going to keep finding it?
    From my understanding that is pretty much it, but it depends on the vaccine and the disease.
    Some vaccines are very effective, as they train our immune systems to recognise some diseases immediately, so they're never likely to reproduce sufficiently for it ever to be detected. This is what's officially know as sterilising immunity, and why we've managed to pretty much eradicate some diseases.

    The issue with some vaccines and viruses, is they have varying levels of effectiveness.
    Unfortunately coronaviruses are a problem area. They continually evolve, vaccines aren't 100% effective, and immunity wanes.

    I've not personally noticed (admittedly I've not been looking..) any detailed research into how Covid19 virus levels vary in vaccinated people, compared with unvaccinated. The general consensus is contagiousness will be lower and for a shorter period of time, but that is purely based on experience with other diseases.
    0reaction image LOL 0reaction image Wow! 0reaction image Wisdom
  • maharg101maharg101 Frets: 161
    Adey said:
    I'm not an expert, but as I understand it, any sort of vaccination doesn't put an invisible barrier around people that stops the virus even getting close to you.

    The virus can still enter your system and the antibodies you have start attacking it earlier than you would manage otherwise.

    So if I were to walk into a room full of the Measles virus, even though I've had my Measles innoculation, the virus could enter my system. My immune system would then start attacking it. But if I was tested the next day, I might test positive for Measles. Yet, if tested two days later it would be gone.

    Is it not the same for Coronavirus? If you keep testing as much as we are, you're going to keep finding it?
    The majority of people tend to only seek out a PCR test when they are symptomatic.
    This one goes to eleven

    Trading feedback here
    0reaction image LOL 0reaction image Wow! 1reaction image Wisdom
  • crunchmancrunchman Frets: 8103
    edited October 22

    There are different parts to the immune system.  Antibodies tend to be shorter term (a few months), but T Cells and B Cells still give an immune response after a much longer period of time.

    Last year, one of the newspapers (maybe the Guardian) quoted a study saying that SARS survivors still showed a robust T Cell response 3 or 4 years after infection.  I don't think that's limited to 3 or 4 years but that's when the study was carried out.

    I also saw that they found functioning B Cells against the 1918 Spanish flu 90 years later in a someone who was a child at the time of the pandemic.  It's B Cells that produce antibodies, so even if you have no antibodies, your system is able to produce them a lot more quickly than with the initial infection.

    B Cell response may be different with Covid as it's a Coronavirus, and flu is a rhinovirus, but SARS is a coronavirus, so the T Cell immune response is likely to be similar.

    Judging by the increase in cases, there might be some waning of immunity, but it should be waning from high immunity to a more moderate level of immunity - not to zero immunity.  The panic mongers are out in force though as if it's the end of days.
    0reaction image LOL 0reaction image Wow! 4reaction image Wisdom
  • m_cm_c Frets: 768
    I can understand both sides of the argument.

    There is no doubt cases are rising, along with hospital admissions, so introducing some basic measures now, would likely help reduce the increase faster.
     
    However I wonder how much of the rise is due to the balls up with that testing lab. Several thousand people being given false negatives will no doubt have contributed to the increase, so with accurate testing and isolation, that may be enough to reduce the increase.


    I don't think the government want to re-introduce any English restrictions, so they'll be hoping some media coverage, enough people being sensible, and the main driver of the current increase being the result of bad testing, are enough to stop the increase.
    But if numbers don't at least level of over the next 2-3 weeks, I think they'll be forced to do something.
    0reaction image LOL 0reaction image Wow! 0reaction image Wisdom
  • rze99rze99 Frets: 1166

    So glad I'm not a medic.
    They have my utmost admiration. They must be despairing and knackered.
    Hope I don't have to go hospital
    0reaction image LOL 0reaction image Wow! 1reaction image Wisdom
  • chotu495chotu495 Frets: 355
    rze99 said:

    So glad I'm not a medic.
    They have my utmost admiration. They must be despairing and knackered.
    Hope I don't have to go hospital
    This.

    They deserve our admiration and respect.

    A decent pay-rise wouldn’t go amiss either. 
    0reaction image LOL 0reaction image Wow! 2reaction image Wisdom
  • peanutspeanuts Frets: 112
    Sajid Javid has said that infection rates could reach 100,000 per day. His plan is - do nothing. Thoughts?

    Sajid Javid has said that infection rates could reach 100,000 per day. His plan is - do nothing. Thoughts?
    Why should I give a flying fuck about what bankster Javid has to say about 'Public Health' ? ? ?
    0reaction image LOL 0reaction image Wow! 3reaction image Wisdom
  • peanutspeanuts Frets: 112
    edited October 23
    chotu495 said:
    rze99 said:

    So glad I'm not a medic.
    They have my utmost admiration. They must be despairing and knackered.
    Hope I don't have to go hospital
    This.

    They deserve our admiration and respect.

    A decent pay-rise wouldn’t go amiss either. 
    yep . . we'd like a pay rise please 

    will we get it ? 

    Of course fucking not
    0reaction image LOL 0reaction image Wow! 0reaction image Wisdom
  • crunchmancrunchman Frets: 8103
    m_c said:
    I can understand both sides of the argument.

    There is no doubt cases are rising, along with hospital admissions, so introducing some basic measures now, would likely help reduce the increase faster.
     
    However I wonder how much of the rise is due to the balls up with that testing lab. Several thousand people being given false negatives will no doubt have contributed to the increase, so with accurate testing and isolation, that may be enough to reduce the increase.


    I don't think the government want to re-introduce any English restrictions, so they'll be hoping some media coverage, enough people being sensible, and the main driver of the current increase being the result of bad testing, are enough to stop the increase.
    But if numbers don't at least level of over the next 2-3 weeks, I think they'll be forced to do something.

    The main driver of the current increase is school children, and them passing it on to their families.

    This article is quite interesting:


    It's suggesting that the spread in schools is likely to burn itself out soon.  In London, we are already at the point where cases are barely increasing.

    With half term this week, that will also slow the spread among children.  It wouldn't surprise me if we see it start to drop again in the next 10 days.

    Javed's prediction of 100,000 cases a day is another one that is likely to look silly in a few weeks time.

    0reaction image LOL 0reaction image Wow! 1reaction image Wisdom
  • NelsonPNelsonP Frets: 2166
    edited October 23
    My son has tested positive today, along with 14 other kids who were on a school trip last week. 4 kids on his local football team have it, and 2 of those have passed it on to their (double vaxxed) parents. My niece has it, and has passed it on to her (double vaxxed) dad.

    Basically it's spreading like wildfire amongst younger kids in schools, and they are passing it on to their families. The vaccines were only ever about 70% effective, and the immunity that they creates is now waning.

    I think we are once again reaching the point where action is needed.

    Most obvious solution would be mandatory face masks, and potentially home schooling for unvaccinated kids, for the rest of this term. If they get infected then they'll be at home for a couple of weeks anyway. Then 3rd boosters at 6 months for all, and first dose of vaccine for younger kids. I mean, how hard is this?

    Sajid Javid appears to be asleep at the steering wheel.
    0reaction image LOL 0reaction image Wow! 3reaction image Wisdom
  • crunchmancrunchman Frets: 8103
    NelsonP said:
    My son has tested positive today, along with 14 other kids who were on a school trip last week. 4 kids on his local football team have it, and 2 of those have passed it on to their (double vaxxed) parents. My niece has it, and has passed it on to her (double vaxxed) dad.

    Basically it's spreading like wildfire amongst younger kids in schools, and they are passing it on to their families. The vaccines were only ever about 70% effective, and the immunity that they creates is now waning.

    I think we are once again reaching the point where action is needed.

    Most obvious solution would be mandatory face masks, and potentially home schooling for unvaccinated kids, for the rest of this term. If they get infected then they'll be at home for a couple of weeks anyway. Then 3rd boosters at 6 months for all, and first dose of vaccine for younger kids. I mean, how hard is this?

    Sajid Javid appears to be asleep at the steering wheel.

    Complete overreaction.

    Firstly, you need to be careful how you spout facts.  The vaccines are around 70% effective at stopping infection, but they are well over 90% effective at stopping people getting ill enough to need hospital treatment.

    Second, the vast majority of kids have now had it, and it will burn itself out in schools in the next few weeks.  Look at that article I linked to above.  In London, we are already at the point where it is barely increasing.   Other regions may be 2 or 3 weeks behind, but keeping unvaccinated kids at home for the rest of term is a grotesque overreaction.  It's only a few weeks since the JCVI said that the benefits of vaccinated 12 to 15 year olds were so marginal that they didn't recommend it.
    0reaction image LOL 0reaction image Wow! 4reaction image Wisdom
  • ColsCols Frets: 3992
    Sorry to hear about your kid, @NelsonP.  Hope he and his classmates make a full recovery soon.
    0reaction image LOL 0reaction image Wow! 1reaction image Wisdom
  • FastEddieFastEddie Frets: 318
    One of the problems is that the vaccine doesn't really stop getting or passing on the virus. 
    On top of that, Governments are talking about lock downs for 'non-covid' problems such as flu. That's scary (BBC yesterday afternoon)

    The SNP are big on this so I would expect Scotland to get hit with lockdowns for covid and the flu, and yet more top down control. 

    I'm struggling to believe the media on this. I really do think the likes of the BBC are so bias toward identity politics and the left. Their coverage is far from honest and impartial. I don't watch Sky so can't comment on their stance. 
    YouTube and Facebook are banning any debate so we, as consumers of news, are pretty barren in what to read. 

    Sweden has shown that the best immunity is natural. 

    Can a government stop nature? No. At some point you need to take the hard decision that nature will find a way. 


    If I had talent, I'd be talented.
    Persistent and inconsistent guitar player.
    A lefty, hence a fog of permanent frustration

    Not enough guitars, pedals, and cricket bats.
    USA Deluxe Strat - Martyn Booth Special - Electromatic
    FX Plex - Cornell Romany
    0reaction image LOL 0reaction image Wow! 1reaction image Wisdom
  • NelsonPNelsonP Frets: 2166
    Cols said:
    Sorry to hear about your kid, @NelsonP.  Hope he and his classmates make a full recovery soon.
    Thank you sir!
    0reaction image LOL 0reaction image Wow! 0reaction image Wisdom
  • NelsonPNelsonP Frets: 2166
    edited October 23
    crunchman said:
    NelsonP said:
    My son has tested positive today, along with 14 other kids who were on a school trip last week. 4 kids on his local football team have it, and 2 of those have passed it on to their (double vaxxed) parents. My niece has it, and has passed it on to her (double vaxxed) dad.

    Basically it's spreading like wildfire amongst younger kids in schools, and they are passing it on to their families. The vaccines were only ever about 70% effective, and the immunity that they creates is now waning.

    I think we are once again reaching the point where action is needed.

    Most obvious solution would be mandatory face masks, and potentially home schooling for unvaccinated kids, for the rest of this term. If they get infected then they'll be at home for a couple of weeks anyway. Then 3rd boosters at 6 months for all, and first dose of vaccine for younger kids. I mean, how hard is this?

    Sajid Javid appears to be asleep at the steering wheel.

    Complete overreaction.

    Firstly, you need to be careful how you spout facts.  The vaccines are around 70% effective at stopping infection, but they are well over 90% effective at stopping people getting ill enough to need hospital treatment.

    Second, the vast majority of kids have now had it, and it will burn itself out in schools in the next few weeks.  Look at that article I linked to above.  In London, we are already at the point where it is barely increasing.   Other regions may be 2 or 3 weeks behind, but keeping unvaccinated kids at home for the rest of term is a grotesque overreaction.  It's only a few weeks since the JCVI said that the benefits of vaccinated 12 to 15 year olds were so marginal that they didn't recommend it.
    Maybe, maybe not. I said potentially keep them out, not definitely.

    The waning immunity part is the big unknown currently. Of the 20 or so kids that I know who have tested positive in the last week, about 1/4 of them have passed it on to their (double vaxxed) parents. So 1 in 4 'breakthrough' infections. Whether those adults develop serious illness remains to be seen. But regardless of that, the economic impact is still significant and could, in many cases, be avoided.

    Where are you seeing the data that the majority of kids have had it? That doesn't seem right to me.
    0reaction image LOL 0reaction image Wow! 1reaction image Wisdom
  • GrangousierGrangousier Frets: 1479
     In London, we are already at the point where it is barely increasing.   

    FWIW, in London SE1, a local news website tweets the daily summary figures for Lambeth and Southwark from https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk every day compared with the previous week's figure . These have been stable or dropping slowly from week to week for a number of weeks and are now increasing and accelerating. For example, yesterday:

    Southwark
    86 more people tested positive
    This week: 574
    Last week: 388
    Cumulative cases: 37,971

    Lambeth
    86 more people tested positive
    This week: 648
    Last week: 603
    Cumulative cases: 42,483

    I live in Southwark, and feel a twinge of competitiveness. Problem is I can't tell whether we're winning or losing. 
    0reaction image LOL 0reaction image Wow! 0reaction image Wisdom
  • McSwaggertyMcSwaggerty Frets: 572
    peanuts said:
    chotu495 said:
    rze99 said:

    So glad I'm not a medic.
    They have my utmost admiration. They must be despairing and knackered.
    Hope I don't have to go hospital
    This.

    They deserve our admiration and respect.

    A decent pay-rise wouldn’t go amiss either. 
    yep . . we'd like a pay rise please 

    will we get it ? 

    Of course fucking not
    Yes, but we will all stand on our doorsteps and start clapping again.
    That will keep everybody happy..... 
    0reaction image LOL 0reaction image Wow! 1reaction image Wisdom
  • John_AJohn_A Frets: 3750
    NelsonP said:
    crunchman said:
    NelsonP said:
    My son has tested positive today, along with 14 other kids who were on a school trip last week. 4 kids on his local football team have it, and 2 of those have passed it on to their (double vaxxed) parents. My niece has it, and has passed it on to her (double vaxxed) dad.

    Basically it's spreading like wildfire amongst younger kids in schools, and they are passing it on to their families. The vaccines were only ever about 70% effective, and the immunity that they creates is now waning.

    I think we are once again reaching the point where action is needed.

    Most obvious solution would be mandatory face masks, and potentially home schooling for unvaccinated kids, for the rest of this term. If they get infected then they'll be at home for a couple of weeks anyway. Then 3rd boosters at 6 months for all, and first dose of vaccine for younger kids. I mean, how hard is this?

    Sajid Javid appears to be asleep at the steering wheel.

    Complete overreaction.

    Firstly, you need to be careful how you spout facts.  The vaccines are around 70% effective at stopping infection, but they are well over 90% effective at stopping people getting ill enough to need hospital treatment.

    Second, the vast majority of kids have now had it, and it will burn itself out in schools in the next few weeks.  Look at that article I linked to above.  In London, we are already at the point where it is barely increasing.   Other regions may be 2 or 3 weeks behind, but keeping unvaccinated kids at home for the rest of term is a grotesque overreaction.  It's only a few weeks since the JCVI said that the benefits of vaccinated 12 to 15 year olds were so marginal that they didn't recommend it.
    Maybe, maybe not. I said potentially keep them out, not definitely.

    The waning immunity part is the big unknown currently. Of the 20 or so kids that I know who have tested positive in the last week, about 1/4 of them have passed it on to their (double vaxxed) parents. So 1 in 4 'breakthrough' infections. Whether those adults develop serious illness remains to be seen. But regardless of that, the economic impact is still significant and could, in many cases, be avoided.

    Where are you seeing the data that the majority of kids have had it? That doesn't seem right to me.
    I know about 10 kids that have had it, in every single case they have passed it to their double vaccinated parents
    0reaction image LOL 0reaction image Wow! 1reaction image Wisdom
  • RockerRocker Frets: 4339
    No matter what the daily numbers are, the worrying statistic for me is the R number.  When that goes above 1.0, things are only going to get worse.
    Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. [Albert Einstein]

    Nil Satis Nisi Optimum

    0reaction image LOL 0reaction image Wow! 1reaction image Wisdom
Sign In or Register to comment.