The F1 thread

Cols

Certainly the off season was a lot more lively than any I've seen for a while.  Any one of Steiner Sacked, Hamilton to Ferrari or Horny Horner would have been big news, but all three at once was quite remarkable.

Are we doing a Fantasy F1 league, so I can make some more terrible choices and fail to grasp how the scoring system works?

stickyfiddle

Cols said:

Certainly the off season was a lot more lively than any I've seen for a while.  Any one of Steiner Sacked, Hamilton to Ferrari or Horny Horner would have been big news, but all three at once was quite remarkable.

Are we doing a Fantasy F1 league, so I can make some more terrible choices and fail to grasp how the scoring system works?

After last year I’d just pick RB and Max. 

That said if it’s like my luck last year that’ll mean they’re hopelessly slow, so I say yes!! 

Dontgiveupyourdayjob

Outcome of the Horner investigation due in the next few days apparently....

https://www.skysports.com/f1/news/12433/13081704/christian-horner-investigation-into-red-bull-team-principal-expected-to-be-resolved-before-bahrain-gp

RiftAmps

Lewis now at 16/1.

DesVegas

No rookies this year then? shame

stickyfiddle

DesVegas said:

No rookies this year then? shame

Noone even moved teams. It was expected to be the quietest offseason in years! 

Dontgiveupyourdayjob

Silly season should be interesting this year though. By my calculations there are a dozen drivers out of contract at the end of 2024, which must be the most in years! Couple of real primo seats available too at Red Bull and Mercedes.

stickyfiddle

Dontgiveupyourdayjob said:

Silly season should be interesting this year though. By my calculations there are a dozen drivers out of contract at the end of 2024, which must be the most in years! Couple of real primo seats available too at Red Bull and Mercedes.

Yup. My guess is everyone wants Merc over RB simply because you're against George or Max and probably a fair bit less bullshit with it. 

If I were them I'd probably go Albon or Sainz, but I'd love to see Alonso get either of those spots just to really give him one proper last hurrah

guitars4you

RiftAmps said:

Lewis now at 16/1.

Those odds sum up all that is wrong with F1 - Out of 20 drivers, 12 have no chance whatsoever and will probably struggle to get more than a handful of points all season - Makes you wonder why they 'waste' so much money pursuing nothing - Yet equally those odds suggest that unless Max has a few duff races, the other 7 drivers are just fighting for the odd win, fighting for podium places and maybe at best a better drive for themselves another day - Hard to think of another mainstream big sport that is already decided before the event starts - You'd be hard pushed to find such a big differential of odds on any horse race - Any grand slam tennis match - Any major golf tournament - The PL or indeed CL - Or the 100M final in Paris this summer 

Cols

Dontgiveupyourdayjob said:

Outcome of the Horner investigation due in the next few days apparently....

https://www.skysports.com/f1/news/12433/13081704/christian-horner-investigation-into-red-bull-team-principal-expected-to-be-resolved-before-bahrain-gp

Ford are apparently not happy with the lack of transparency, and their CEO has written to Red Bull to express his displeasure.

https://www.autosport.com/f1/news/frustrated-ford-demands-urgent-resolution-to-red-bulls-horner-investigation/10579819/#:~:text=According%20to%20a%20report%20by,to%20be%20taken%20very%20seriously.

Which could be quite serious - Ford have an exit clause where they can walk away from Red Bull if the relationship becomes detrimental to the Ford company as a whole.

Their chief issue here seems to be that they do not appreciate being given the mushroom treatment by Red Bull, and being ignored when they request further details.

stickyfiddle

@guitars4you spot on. Even in the old days you'd have someone likely to romp off into the distance but there was at least a 20% chance they would blow up before the end. These days mechanical failures are rare, especially at the front, so the little guy is exceptionally unlikely to nick a result

fretmeister

Cols said:

Dontgiveupyourdayjob said:

Outcome of the Horner investigation due in the next few days apparently....

https://www.skysports.com/f1/news/12433/13081704/christian-horner-investigation-into-red-bull-team-principal-expected-to-be-resolved-before-bahrain-gp

Ford are apparently not happy with the lack of transparency, and their CEO has written to Red Bull to express his displeasure.

https://www.autosport.com/f1/news/frustrated-ford-demands-urgent-resolution-to-red-bulls-horner-investigation/10579819/#:~:text=According%20to%20a%20report%20by,to%20be%20taken%20very%20seriously.

Which could be quite serious - Ford have an exit clause where they can walk away from Red Bull if the relationship becomes detrimental to the Ford company as a whole.

Their chief issue here seems to be that they do not appreciate being given the mushroom treatment by Red Bull, and being ignored when they request further details.

Irrespective of the outcome of the investigation - if there is any stink that would affect Ford's share price then either Ford are going or Horner is.

TimmyO

Prediction: it ends up one of those grey conclusions where the other party hasn’t made it up and he hasn’t objectively done anything nefarious 

RiftAmps

guitars4you said:

RiftAmps said:

Lewis now at 16/1.

Those odds sum up all that is wrong with F1 - Out of 20 drivers, 12 have no chance whatsoever and will probably struggle to get more than a handful of points all season - Makes you wonder why they 'waste' so much money pursuing nothing - Yet equally those odds suggest that unless Max has a few duff races, the other 7 drivers are just fighting for the odd win, fighting for podium places and maybe at best a better drive for themselves another day - Hard to think of another mainstream big sport that is already decided before the event starts - You'd be hard pushed to find such a big differential of odds on any horse race - Any grand slam tennis match - Any major golf tournament - The PL or indeed CL - Or the 100M final in Paris this summer 

I 100% agree, and I don't think I've ever seen one driver be such a favourite to win across all bookmakers...even in the Merc heyday.

Pursuing nothing? Not quite, all teams are aware of the rollover effect on future seasons...not all are targeting a WC in 2024 but gearing up for 2026 and beyond instead. The cost cap means nearly all teams are now running at a profit and with a reported average franchise value of $1B per team, it's worth being in the sport.

RB will fall from the top eventually, that's what happens in F1. If you're not in the sport when they do, you can't be the one to replace them.

guitars4you

RiftAmps said:

guitars4you said:

RiftAmps said:

Lewis now at 16/1.

Those odds sum up all that is wrong with F1 - Out of 20 drivers, 12 have no chance whatsoever and will probably struggle to get more than a handful of points all season - Makes you wonder why they 'waste' so much money pursuing nothing - Yet equally those odds suggest that unless Max has a few duff races, the other 7 drivers are just fighting for the odd win, fighting for podium places and maybe at best a better drive for themselves another day - Hard to think of another mainstream big sport that is already decided before the event starts - You'd be hard pushed to find such a big differential of odds on any horse race - Any grand slam tennis match - Any major golf tournament - The PL or indeed CL - Or the 100M final in Paris this summer 

I 100% agree, and I don't think I've ever seen one driver be such a favourite to win across all bookmakers...even in the Merc heyday.

Pursuing nothing? Not quite, all teams are aware of the rollover effect on future seasons...not all are targeting a WC in 2024 but gearing up for 2026 and beyond instead. The cost cap means nearly all teams are now running at a profit and with a reported average franchise value of $1B per team, it's worth being in the sport.

RB will fall from the top eventually, that's what happens in F1. If you're not in the sport when they do, you can't be the one to replace them.

Chris - Showed these odds to a friend of mine who likes the odd flutter and studies form/odds etc - Didn't tell him what sport or the names - So just showed him the column with the odds - He naturally assumed it was a horse race

His first comment was if he saw such odds on a horse race he would not bet as he assumed it would be fixed, a set up or iffy at best - He said if the horse was that good then what is it doing there - Or indeed if the other 19 are that bad what are they doing there - He can't recall ever see a set of horses so wide spread between 1/8 and 14/1 - You'd normally find at least 2/3/4 other horses offering something along the lines of between 3-1 to 8-1 at least 

Even if he thought it was all kosher he'd never bet on 1/8 as the gain is so marginal - At best he'd look to bet on a place (2nd or 3rd) but as an overview he said such odds would scare him and lead him to believe the race is fixed before it starts

Then I told him it was F1 - At best he would not bet on 1/8 and would try to find some good odds on either 2nd place, or indeed odds like the gap between 1st and 2nd with regards to the differential of points, or the aggregate points Max will get - But as an overview he said he hated such odds  and never seen such a forecast before

Cols

fretmeister said:

Irrespective of the outcome of the investigation - if there is any stink that would affect Ford's share price then either Ford are going or Horner is.

Certainly if Ford feel they’re being badly tarnished by association they won’t want to hang around.  It certainly wouldn’t be the first time Red Bull have been damaging to an engine supplier.

However, it might not be a case of “Horner goes or we do”.  The rumours are that the Austrian wing of Red Bull want Horner out anyway, and this may have been a useful pretext to achieve that.

Red Bull have already indicated that they won’t be divulging any significant details of the investigation once they reveal Horner’s fate (and the omens are not currently good for him).  If he is given the boot, I suspect Ford would like to be assured that it was for a good reason and not an internal hatchet job.  Currently they don’t seem to be getting any information other than what they read in the papers, and they don’t like it.

stickyfiddle

My guess is they're negotiating a package to get him out. If it was clear and simple impropriety he'd have gone a couple of weeks ago, but if there was nothing to see they'd have said so. 

It'll be a massive change if he does go though. It won't be an easy team for his replacement to keep a lid on. 

#NeweyToFerrari

Cols

stickyfiddle said:

My guess is they're negotiating a package to get him out. If it was clear and simple impropriety he'd have gone a couple of weeks ago, but if there was nothing to see they'd have said so. 

It'll be a massive change if he does go though. It won't be an easy team for his replacement to keep a lid on. 

#NeweyToFerrari

Apparently the dossier which has been handed to the Red Bull board is 150 pages long, quite a lot of material.

So either it’s a comprehensive exoneration, or they’re planning to nail his hide to the fucking wall.

stickyfiddle

To give Red Bull just a little bit of credit, here is a GREAT video of filming with an extremely fast drone at Silverstone

menamestom

Sounds like Horner is being cleared of any wrong doing, according to Sky F1 channel.