State of current market

Decibel01

In my 30yrs of buying/selling/collecting guitars i do not think i've come across a market this dislocated. Who in the right state of mind would opt to buy a "new" guitar as opposed to a used one given total collapse in mass market second hand pricing (save a few boutiques that attract scarcity premium). We stil seem to be working thru covid demand unwind. Picking up 1/2yr old custom shops for 50% off, recent LPs at 40-50%, dont get me started on PRS which looks in the pits, cant give them away. Scouring ebay/reverb/others there is plethora of deluded sellers thinking their stock is worth 50% above where gear is actually being shifted at (volumes are dreadful).     

Chimpankie

It seems to be hitting a certain market segment in particular, I’m thinking PRS, Suhr, PJE, Xotic etc. I’ve seen some amazing guitars go for 1.6k that I’d have snapped up had I not just spent a small fortune on a new roof. And the optimistically priced ones just sit around in eBay and Reverb for months, people who think they’ll get 2.5k for a typical Suhr Classic, for example. 

Heck there’s a silver sky in the classifieds here that is 1.2k and another one on reverb that went for 1.2k, used to never see those drop under 1.5k unless badly damaged. 

Edit to add: I think my days of ever buying new are over, I picked up a new DGT in 2020 for 2.7k, equivalent guitars now seem to be topping 4K. 

Jackobean

Honestly, I view this as a good thing. Constant flipping is an obsessive/compulsive distraction for a lot of people (myself included). The difficulty/losses make this sort of behaviour unpalatable now, unless you have very deep pockets.

OilCityPickups

Jackobean said:

Honestly, I view this as a good thing. Constant flipping is an obsessive/compulsive distraction for a lot of people (myself included). The difficulty/losses make this sort of behaviour unpalatable now, unless you have very deep pockets.

I have never understood this constant guitar flipping. In order to be a halfway good guitarist you need to get used to an instrument and learn everything you can get out of it. I worked out ages ago that many folks actually don't want to improve as musicians, the just want to collect shiny things that remind them of a past youth. 
Get a reasonable amp, guitar, effects to taste - then play them. Jam with like minded people, even ... lordy help us gig! It's way more fun being in a group of musicians enjoying each other's playing and the banter of playing music with real people than sitting at home polishing your expensive musical ornaments alone. 

maltingsaudio

My problem with it all is my baseline for prices is set in the 90’s. Therefor an RG550 is worth about £500 a Les Paul just under a grand an American Strat about £750 and something akin to a Washburn KC about £250. It seems this baseline has trebled in the last 25 years and the choice expanded exponentially.

Roland

Decibel01 said:

We stil seem to be working thru covid demand unwind…

It will be a combination of that, market saturation with new and secondhand guitars, and world economic conditions.

mrkb

I think Jordan Guitars had a sale the other week and he never discounts.

guyinlyon

If someone is having trouble keeping up with rent increases it makes a lot of sense to finally realize that you don't need a £5000 Gibson Les Paul when an £800 Epiphone will sound the same.

ryanverbena

@Decibel01 - welcome to the forum, interesting to arrive with some words to say! Nice post 

Chimpankie

OilCityPickups said:

Jackobean said:

Honestly, I view this as a good thing. Constant flipping is an obsessive/compulsive distraction for a lot of people (myself included). The difficulty/losses make this sort of behaviour unpalatable now, unless you have very deep pockets.

I have never understood this constant guitar flipping. In order to be a halfway good guitarist you need to get used to an instrument and learn everything you can get out of it. I worked out ages ago that many folks actually don't want to improve as musicians, the just want to collect shiny things that remind them of a past youth. 
Get a reasonable amp, guitar, effects to taste - then play them. Jam with like minded people, even ... lordy help us gig! It's way more fun being in a group of musicians enjoying each other's playing and the banter of playing music with real people than sitting at home polishing your expensive musical ornaments alone. 

They don't have to be mutually exclusive, I rehearse with a band most weeks and play live semi regularly and have gone through an unholy number of guitars (albeit closer to 13 than 666) in the past few years  

The downside is, I let a guitar go I really wish I hadn't (there's various threads here of me hunting for a replacement paulownia Suhr) and now don't have the funds to get the equivalent...

GuyR

Guitars are expensive, very durable and tend to be preserved well by their owners. 

The supply of existing guitars, new and old, increases daily, but the space within consumers’ lives and homes to accommodate them does not.
Perhaps we have reached guitar saturation point.

OilCityPickups

Chimpankie said:

OilCityPickups said:

Jackobean said:

Honestly, I view this as a good thing. Constant flipping is an obsessive/compulsive distraction for a lot of people (myself included). The difficulty/losses make this sort of behaviour unpalatable now, unless you have very deep pockets.

I have never understood this constant guitar flipping. In order to be a halfway good guitarist you need to get used to an instrument and learn everything you can get out of it. I worked out ages ago that many folks actually don't want to improve as musicians, the just want to collect shiny things that remind them of a past youth. 
Get a reasonable amp, guitar, effects to taste - then play them. Jam with like minded people, even ... lordy help us gig! It's way more fun being in a group of musicians enjoying each other's playing and the banter of playing music with real people than sitting at home polishing your expensive musical ornaments alone. 

They don't have to be mutually exclusive, I rehearse with a band most weeks and play live semi regularly and have gone through an unholy number of guitars (albeit closer to 13 than 666) in the past few years  

Now they don't have to be ... but I have contact with a very large number of guitarists in my line of business ... and you are an somewhat of an exception. 

Open_G

GuyR said:

Guitars are expensive, very durable and tend to be preserved well by their owners. 

The supply of existing guitars, new and old, increases daily, but the space within consumers’ lives and homes to accommodate them does not.
Perhaps we have reached guitar saturation point.

Absolutely. When I started playing in the early 90’s there were a plethora of guitar bands in the easily consumed media, plus the catalogue of music from the 50’s onwards. As the years have progressed I’ve seen more and more local music stores vanish. If I wander into a large instrument retailer there’s not the number of teenagers gawping at guitars they can’t afford. Is the market now shrinking as gen xennials are the last to buy guitars and all of us reach a point where we start to think about one in, one out. The more time I spend reading on a guitar forum, the more likely I am to spend money but I don’t have unlimited resources or space. The bubble must burst at some point, if it hasn’t already. 

Whitecat

There is very obviously a good-sized subset of people who just refuse to buy used and only want new. It’s the only way to explain how shops are turning over the expensive stuff. 

Stevepage

A plague on the second hand market at the moment is an increase in people with a lot of money buying anything and then whacking them on eBay/reverb for 2 or 3 times what they paid for it. These people have so much ‘stock’ they can afford to wait for a sale for months on end, where as those who want to sell to free up cash or buy some thing else, then find out the demand isn’t there and the offers are well below what was expected

It’s nothing new but I feel it’s gotten out of hand. 

rhinofeet

The big shops often have better second hand deals than eBay. There are definitely bargains to be had at the moment. 

Decibel01

rhinofeet said:

The big shops often have better second hand deals than eBay. There are definitely bargains to be had at the moment. 

That in itself shows you how crazy the disparity between a large contingent of platform (ebay/reverb etc) private sellers and reality is (given that a dealer markup on second hand gear is 20%+). 

mrkb

Decibel01 said:

rhinofeet said:

The big shops often have better second hand deals than eBay. There are definitely bargains to be had at the moment. 

That in itself shows you how crazy the disparity between a large contingent of platform (ebay/reverb etc) private sellers and reality is (given that a dealer markup on second hand gear is 20%+). 

The bedroom dealer markup is often 50%+

Chimpankie

mrkb said:

Decibel01 said:

rhinofeet said:

The big shops often have better second hand deals than eBay. There are definitely bargains to be had at the moment. 

That in itself shows you how crazy the disparity between a large contingent of platform (ebay/reverb etc) private sellers and reality is (given that a dealer markup on second hand gear is 20%+). 

The bedroom dealer markup is often 50%+

Still see S2 594 thinlines popping up for sale that were almost certainly bought when Peach did their big blow out sale, all listed for more than Peach sold them for 

JEM

OilCityPickups said:

Get a reasonable amp, guitar, effects to taste - then play them. Jam with like minded people, even ... lordy help us gig! It's way more fun being in a group of musicians enjoying each other's playing and the banter of playing music with real people than sitting at home polishing your expensive musical ornaments alone. 

Alternatively people could just keep doing whatever makes them happy, I assume all classic car enthusiasts should just sell all their old heaps of junk buy a Honda Civic and spend the rest on track days so they can become halfway good drivers?  

chris78

Decibel01 said:

rhinofeet said:

The big shops often have better second hand deals than eBay. There are definitely bargains to be had at the moment. 

That in itself shows you how crazy the disparity between a large contingent of platform (ebay/reverb etc) private sellers and reality is (given that a dealer markup on second hand gear is 20%+). 

40%. You’re never going to get a dealer only making 20%