EU referendum ..... just why?????

Heartfeltdawn

Fretwired said:

I think Boris is banking on Cameron winning. The Independent estimates that 165 Tories are learning towards Brexit so if Cameron wins he's toast. Those 165 will want a PM who is Eurosceptic and will look to a referendum in the future now that the genie is out of the bottle - if Osborne takes over they will just cause trouble. However the maths are against Osborne. Boris will be the next PM.

If they did look to a second referendum, then those Brexiters would be acting no different to Nicola Sturgeon, someone they bitcehd about loudly when she has discussed having a second Scotref. 

I'm not seeing the equation here. You say that an In vote/Cameron win makes Boris the new PM. A Leave vote would actually give him a mandate and platform to become leader and PM. I don't think it's that win-win for Boris. His Leave campaigning has been shit. For the first time in his political career, a few things are actually sticking, not least the absolute reverse ferret over TTIP. 

Snap said:

I would rather have the Tories than Labour atm. Imagine that overgrown sixth form berk Corbyn running the shop. Yes Cameron and co are full of faults, along with some of their politics, but Corbyn, FFS. Not only that, the shadow cabinet are lighter than a lighweight suffering from dysentry in a gravity loss simulator.

This is what I really don't understand. Folk complain about identikit politics. We've had year after year of heavyweight politicians, Thatcher to Blair to the lower ranks like Eric Pickles (who is possibly the unsung midfield general of the Cameron era). We've had top down politics for years. 

Along comes Corbyn. Did you see any of the conference over the weekend? It's not the politics we've been used to from Thatcher to Brown. There are several issues with Corbyn and Labour but there is at least an attempt to do things in a different way without resorting to the same heavyweight bullshit where someone comes in, announces this and that and fuck off to anyone else's opinion and thoughts. We still seem stuck in this pattern where we need an individual to save us, that coalition politics is wrong. 

Fretwired said:

 It may lead to years of coalition but I think the UK needs a new party and proper PR not FPTP.

And wouldn't it be wonderfully ironic, a successful Brexit campaign dragging us out of Europe causes the two main parties to lose numbers, the formation of a powerful new third way, and a pathway to proper coalition government with PR voting. In other words, Brexit causing a more European style of democracy to emerge in this country. 

Fretwired

Heartfeltdawn said:

I'm not seeing the equation here. You say that an In vote/Cameron win makes Boris the new PM. A Leave vote would actually give him a mandate and platform to become leader and PM. I don't think it's that win-win for Boris. His Leave campaigning has been shit. For the first time in his political career, a few things are actually sticking, not least the absolute reverse ferret over TTIP. 

Yes. I believe that it would be the price the Brexiters would extract for peace should we vote to remain, hoping for another referendum (that won't come). Boris has a double-first in classics so he knows far more about skulduggery and political manipulation than most. That's why he sat on the fence for so long and that's why he's making a pigs ear of the Brexit campaign. No Tory PM will ever want to leave the EU as they'll have nothing to blame, go to war over or rally the troops about. And besides Boris enjoys the good life and won't want to miss a chance sip the odd glass of Barons de Rothschild Lafite Réserve Pauillac at an Élysée Palace dinner. Boris is like Blair - only interested in himself.

Drew_TNBD

Aye, bollocks to democracy.

chrispy108

It's not that no one will give you the facts, it's that it isn't possible.

It's a fork in the road, and without Crystal balls you can't predict what either outcome will look like with any certainty. You can make models and guesses, but they'll all have so many variables the errors are so big as to make them useless.

Philly_Q

Apart from the extremely uncertain outcome, the utterly tedious tit-for-tat debate and the fact that, like some others, I don't really believe in referenda on principle, the things that bother me are:

(a) How much does holding a referendum cost?  I thought we lived in times of austerity, tightened purse strings and all that.  Why are we wasting money on this nonsense?

(b) How much politicians' time is being wasted here?  I thought running the country was supposed to be a full time job, yet apparently they can afford to spend six months bitching at each other about Europe.

ICBM

Philly_Q said:

(a) How much does holding a referendum cost?

Not that much. About the same as three and half minutes of EU budget contribution, or four-fifths of one US corporate lawsuit against the UK government, so it's important to decide which.

*

Philly_Q said:

(b) How much politicians' time is being wasted here?  I thought running the country was supposed to be a full time job, yet apparently they can afford to spend six months bitching at each other about Europe.

It's much better to give them something where they can expend as much hot air as possible and do less damage than actually running the country, which should be left to the experts.

(*These figures are of course completely made up on the spot, since it would be wrong to actually do some proper calculations before comparing In and Out scenarios.)

Jock68

Please take this seriously watch "Brexit the Movie " on YouTube.  This is not about Tory or Labour, it is about the Albanians and Turks.  This referendum is the last chance that you will be given to retain democracy within the UK.  Voting to remain will allow the majority of the 28 ( planned to be 32) countries decide what laws will you have to follow in the future.  

Voting Tory or Labour after this referendum will have no impact on the Laws passed and the money that you have to pay in Tax, it will all be decided in One of the two EU Parliaments.  My view of democracy is voting every 5 years to get rid of the Government that rules the UK if I don't like them.  Voting after this referendum will be a waste of time because no matter who you vote for they will not make the Laws for the UK, not control the Army, not decide how much tax is taken out your pocket.  Yeah Yeah Yeah....... don't believe me ask the Greeks.  

crunchman

chrispy108 said:

It's not that no one will give you the facts, it's that it isn't possible.

It's a fork in the road, and without Crystal balls you can't predict what either outcome will look like with any certainty. You can make models and guesses, but they'll all have so many variables the errors are so big as to make them useless.

True but with caveats.

Simple maths tells us the Greece (and probably the rest of Southern Europe) will go bankrupt and drag the Euro area down.  They owe more than they have any hope of ever repaying.

If we vote to leave there would also be short term pain of some kind initially - especially if the EU tries to make an example of us to stop other countries from leaving.

What we don't know is how these will turn out.  With the first one we would be foolish to think we won't be affected at all but if we leave and cultivate more diverse trade relationships around the world then we would be less badly affected.  We also don't know how bad it will be.  It could lead to a complete meltdown of the EU, or it might just lead to a Japanese style lost decade.

With the second one we don't know how the EU will respond.  If pragmatism and the German car makers get there way we will have a new trade deal with the EU the day after we leave.  If the EU project idealists get there way they will block any deal.

As you say, there are too many variables to model it accurately - and any model could be completely messed up by a scenario that dragged the whole world economy down like a major earthquake on the US West coast.

You have to weigh the risks, and the potential gains the best you can.

On the risk side, I don't think the risk that EU would shoot themselves in the foot to block us from trading with them (at least in the long term) is especially high.  It's at least offset, if not completely outweighed by the risk from Southern Europe.

For me there are a lot more potential gains from being out. Losing the red tape, and being able to support UK businesses with what the EU would designate as "illegal state aid", and the possibility of trade deals with other countries that are currently being blocked by national vested interests in the EU are genuine gains.  I'm not stupid enough to try to predict how much better or worse off.

Economically, out is probably a braver, more risky option but I think long term we would probably be better off economically - although I can't say that for certain.

The other thing that sways me towards out is that we need to restore power to our government.  When our MPs (of all parties) vote overwhelmingly in Parliament that prisoners should not have the right to vote, that is for Parliament to decide.  It should not be overruled by an unelected European Court.  Yes there is a worry about who is currently in Parliament but it doesn't alter the fact that our Parliament should be in charge.

UnclePsychosis

Jock68;1084474" said:

Please take this seriously watch "Brexit the Movie " on YouTube.  This is not about Tory or Labour, it is about the Albanians and Turks.  This referendum is the last chance that you will be given to retain democracy within the UK.  Voting to remain will allow the majority of the 28 ( planned to be 32) countries decide what laws will you have to follow in the future.  

Voting Tory or Labour after this referendum will have no impact on the Laws passed and the money that you have to pay in Tax, it will all be decided in One of the two EU Parliaments.  My view of democracy is voting every 5 years to get rid of the Government that rules the UK if I don't like them.  Voting after this referendum will be a waste of time because no matter who you vote for they will not make the Laws for the UK, not control the Army, not decide how much tax is taken out your pocket.  Yeah Yeah Yeah....... don't believe me ask the Greeks.  

Jesus fucking Christ.

Chalky

UnclePsychosis;1084565" said:

[quote="Jock68;1084474"]Please take this seriously watch "Brexit the Movie " on YouTube.  This is not about Tory or Labour, it is about the Albanians and Turks.  This referendum is the last chance that you will be given to retain democracy within the UK.  Voting to remain will allow the majority of the 28 ( planned to be 32) countries decide what laws will you have to follow in the future.  

Voting Tory or Labour after this referendum will have no impact on the Laws passed and the money that you have to pay in Tax, it will all be decided in One of the two EU Parliaments.  My view of democracy is voting every 5 years to get rid of the Government that rules the UK if I don't like them.  Voting after this referendum will be a waste of time because no matter who you vote for they will not make the Laws for the UK, not control the Army, not decide how much tax is taken out your pocket.  Yeah Yeah Yeah....... don't believe me ask the Greeks.  

Jesus fucking Christ.
[/quote]

We did him in another thread...

menamestom

In such scenarios when I'm not sure what to do, I usually buy a copy of the Daily Mail and see what they want me to do, then do the opposite. If it turns out that by some complete fluke of nature, I happen to deep down want to do what they think I should do, I do the opposite of the opposite of what they wanted me to do, to be twice removed from the smart arsed twats.

chillidoggy

menamestom said:

In such scenarios when I'm not sure what to do, I usually buy a copy of the Daily Mail and see what they want me to do, then do the opposite. If it turns out that by some complete fluke of nature, I happen to deep down want to do what they think I should do, I do the opposite of the opposite of what they wanted me to do, to be twice removed from the smart arsed twats.

Have you thought about campaigning for one of the opposing sides? Either one, it won't matter.

menamestom

chillidoggy;1084608" said:

menamestom said:



In such scenarios when I'm not sure what to do, I usually buy a copy of the Daily Mail and see what they want me to do, then do the opposite. If it turns out that by some complete fluke of nature, I happen to deep down want to do what they think I should do, I do the opposite of the opposite of what they wanted me to do, to be twice removed from the smart arsed twats.

Have you thought about campaigning for one of the opposing sides? Either one, it won't matter.

I could be persuaded to campaign for a new opposing side that you wouldn't even know about from mainstream media, a 3rd 4th or even 5th possibility from an unconfirmed alternative source that I read on the internet? That would mean I wouldn't have to try and unravel 'The Daily Mail Paradox' that states you have to buy it to do the opposite of it but buying it is forbidden.

richardhomer

I must admit, the quality of 'debate' from both sides has been shockingly poor.

My guess is we'll vote 'out' - apparently holiday makers are already busy buying Euros in readiness....

UnclePsychosis

richardhomer;1084637" said:

I must admit, the quality of 'debate' from both sides has been shockingly poor.

My guess is we'll vote 'out' - apparently holiday makers are already busy buying Euros in readiness....

Not if you ask the bookies. Betting exchange is still a comfortable remain.

axisus

crunchman said:

@TTony if your scenario plays out the and Scots want to rejoin the EU as an independent nation that would mean joining the Euro.  It's non-negotiable for new members.  I'm not sure that they would be willing to sign up for that.

My understanding was that we told them they couldn't keep the pound if they voted to leave us.

ICBM

I think I'm going to start a campaign to join China. Football supporter logic - follow the winning team.

TTony

ICBM said:

I think I'm going to start a campaign to join China. Football supporter logic - follow the winning team.

Slightly different logic @ICBM - pick a team at the bottom, and then the only way is up.

Which also means I should head North - best politician and worst football team.  

Any chance you could get the weather fixed for me??

Garthy

randella said:

TTony said:

randella said:

If we stay then I reckon there's a good chance the Tories will implode like they did under Major.

... the "outers" supposedly have a list of 100 signatures, ready to force an election contest should we stay in, nicely splitting the party wide open.

Either a good or bad thing, depending on which way your politics lean, of course.

Although you can't help but feel any discord within Conservative ranks might well be ameliorated by the lack of any credible opposition party.

Funny old thing, politics.  We're in for some interesting times.

Speaking of the credible opposition party, if Out succeeds, where does this leave the parties that did not even want the public of a democratic country to have this vote in the first place? This seems to have been swept under the carpet with all of the talk of the Tories imploding.

Fretwired

A little film ....