EU Referendum Vote - Poll

Limehouse_Blues

Delete double post

UnclePsychosis

Anyone know when the UKIP led campaign to leave NATO begins? Must be soon, presumably.

oddball

ToneControl said:

oddball said:

Stay - economy is slowing down already up to the vote due to people curbing their spending waiting to see the outcome, if we leave its going to get worse whilst they then wait to see what happens and so the domino effect happens as things nose dive and people still hold onto their cash. Personally i couldnt give a monkeys about immigration, as long as they come to work and pay tax I see no problem (as the vast majority do)

nobody can show that the economy will get worse

Even if it did for a bit, long-term could be way better, as many believe

nobody can say it will get worse except the CBI and the majority of Blue Chip Company CEO's - I've seen nothing to personally convince me our economy will be better off for leaving.

Fretwired

Limehouse_Blues said:

The UK was instrumental in the EU's eastward expansion. The 2004 accession of former eastern bloc countries was the culmination of a long process. Some other member states were hostile to the accession of these new countries or wanted the expansion to proceed more slowly. The UK wanted expansion and the sooner the better, seeing it as a move that might dilute the power of the Franco German axis. 2004 was a good example of the UK getting its way in the EU. Our rebate and opt outs from Schengen and the euro are also testament to the extent to which the UK (compared with smaller, poorer member states) is able to use real clout to have its cake.

I wouldn't say instrumental. It was always going to happen after German reunification. The Poles had been negotiating to join since the 1980s. The German's pushed for it as did the USA - for strategic defence reasons.

The UK's influence was diluted and our budget increased and whilst it's true the Franco-German axis was weakened Germany emerged as the major winner. Many of the new states were hostile to the UK - the left across Europe saw the UK as a US puppet state. The UK championed free market economics and competition and had broken up and sold many state owned industries with the loss of industrial jobs and our manufacturing base. This frightened the likes of Poland.

There are a couple of good books on how Blair and co cocked up big time with the EU.

eSully

Drew_fx said:

So has anyone changed their mind during these 20 odd pages?

Multiple times, I've been vocal about seeing merit in both sides arguments and have definitely been given pause for thought a few times by well made arguments on this thread.

However, I'm increasingly becoming despondent with regards to it, I feel a bit burnt out from reading counter argument after counter argument if I'm honest and the big old elephant in the room that people that isn't really being mentioned is that this referendum will resolve absolutely fucking nothing. We vote remain and UKIP and others get stronger, we vote leave and as I already linked to, MP's will go about implementing Leave 'Lite' and will most likely bring on another referendum anyway (ala the Lisbon treaty in Ireland, "oh I see you voted No, well vote again but vote right this time") - This vote is going to be tremendously close and I simply don't see either losing campaign accepting the result.

karltone

oddball said:

ToneControl said:

oddball said:

Stay - economy is slowing down already up to the vote due to people curbing their spending waiting to see the outcome, if we leave its going to get worse whilst they then wait to see what happens and so the domino effect happens as things nose dive and people still hold onto their cash. Personally i couldnt give a monkeys about immigration, as long as they come to work and pay tax I see no problem (as the vast majority do)

nobody can show that the economy will get worse

Even if it did for a bit, long-term could be way better, as many believe

nobody can say it will get worse except the CBI and the majority of Blue Chip Company CEO's - I've seen nothing to personally convince me our economy will be better off for leaving.

The EU is a customs union so will naturally inflate prices due its structure, which also means big companies will make more profit hence why in general they want to stay in the EU. It is not by default a free trade area because there is cost of membership and also tariffs placed on products etc being imported into the EU. As EU consumers we end up paying more for being in a customs union. I'm not saying this in a negative way you have to weigh up the pros and cons and make a decision either way to the benefits/downsides of the EU.

I think in the short term there would be a hit if we left though i don't think it will be major one, more like a jab, in the long term the economy would be much better off out, but this also depends on the trade deal negotiated. 

FarleyUK

In all seriousness though, if the UK leaves, I do not see how the current government can remain in power in order to oversee an effective transition - seeing as how most of them are in the 'remain' camp.

I realise it'll take a long time to transition, but even if the Tories are voted out, that leaves..... Labour? With pretty much all of their MPs also in the remain camp? I wouldn't trust anyone in government today to put their heart and soul into working out the logistics, getting the best deals etc. if we leave.

Still, I'd love to see the smug tossers get a bloody nose from the public vote.

hungrymark

It's a single issue, albeit a biggie that is being decided by referendum, but governments have lost on single issues before without being forced out.

fretmeister

Wow.

http://politicalscrapbook.net/2016/06/vote-leave-quietly-delete-its-fake-register-to-vote-page-after-being-exposed/

That's more than a bit naughty.

Modulus_Amps

Drew_fx said:

So has anyone changed their mind during these 20 odd pages?

I changed before this thread, I have still not seen anything from the remain camp that has made me even think about changing my mind again, it should be really easy, you would think, to justify sticking to such a big powerful organization, yet it is not.

We continue to be 1 foot in one foot out, time to commit one

FarleyUK said:

In all seriousness though, if the UK leaves, I do not see how the current government can remain in power in order to oversee an effective transition - seeing as how most of them are in the 'remain' camp.

I realise it'll take a long time to transition, but even if the Tories are voted out, that leaves..... Labour? With pretty much all of their MPs also in the remain camp? I wouldn't trust anyone in government today to put their heart and soul into working out the logistics, getting the best deals etc. if we leave.

Still, I'd love to see the smug tossers get a bloody nose from the public vote.

I don't think that needs to be the case.

Keep in mind that leaving the EU will mean a loss of political jobs/income/opportunity for them in this country, if they are voting for remain then they are also voting for self preservation.

GuyBoden

Stay in, my vote is in the post.

Axe_meister

If there is one thing that make me want a decisive remain vote that is to shut Farage up.
And as much as I like JoBo he is the last person I'd want to run the country.

Col_Decker

Heart says out, head says in. I'm having a bit of a Gollum moment.

fretmeister

karltone said:

oddball said:

ToneControl said:

oddball said:

Stay - economy is slowing down already up to the vote due to people curbing their spending waiting to see the outcome, if we leave its going to get worse whilst they then wait to see what happens and so the domino effect happens as things nose dive and people still hold onto their cash. Personally i couldnt give a monkeys about immigration, as long as they come to work and pay tax I see no problem (as the vast majority do)

nobody can show that the economy will get worse

Even if it did for a bit, long-term could be way better, as many believe

nobody can say it will get worse except the CBI and the majority of Blue Chip Company CEO's - I've seen nothing to personally convince me our economy will be better off for leaving.

The EU is a customs union so will naturally inflate prices due its structure, which also means big companies will make more profit hence why in general they want to stay in the EU. It is not by default a free trade area because there is cost of membership and also tariffs placed on products etc being imported into the EU. As EU consumers we end up paying more for being in a customs union. I'm not saying this in a negative way you have to weigh up the pros and cons and make a decision either way to the benefits/downsides of the EU.

I think in the short term there would be a hit if we left though i don't think it will be major one, more like a jab, in the long term the economy would be much better off out, but this also depends on the trade deal negotiated. 

Article 50 of the Treaty of European Union (partly drafted by the UK) states that when a member leaves the EU all their agreements automatically come to an end 24 months after. Irrespective of whether we have negotiated new ones

At that point the leaver is then subject to tariffs. These are automatic for anyone outside the EU.

While there is the chance of minimising the tariffs it would need all remaining member states to agree to a Treaty change. It has to be unanimous.

So it won't happen.

ICBM

fretmeister said:

Wow.

http://politicalscrapbook.net/2016/06/vote-leave-quietly-delete-its-fake-register-to-vote-page-after-being-exposed/

That's more than a bit naughty.

Yes it really is.

fretmeister

Nice little article on the 2 different approaches used on the Immigration promises.

1: Tell leave supporters that leaving will lower immigration.

2: Tell Asian voters that leaving will lower European immigration to allow MORE Asian immigration.

http://politicalscrapbook.net/2016/06/campaign-to-leave-the-eu-wants-to-cut-non-eu-immigration-while-telling-british-asians-it-will-increase-it/

UnclePsychosis

I'd pretend to be surprised by either link that @fretmeister has supplied this morning but I can't say I am. Utterly shameless from the leavers.

Drew_TNBD

I could give you at least ten examples of that very same thing happening in the gaming and feminist media. Obvs I'm just a misogynist tho!

Bidley

I suppose posting smug memes on Facebook about remaining makes that camp a paragon of virtue too, doesn't it.

The whole thing is ugly. The best thing to do is look at all the fluff you can, from both sides, and makes a decision based on what you think is right.

Evilmags

The issue is not immigration it is paying the vast debts of the south