It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!
Subscribe to our Patreon, and get image uploads with no ads on the site!
Base theme by DesignModo & ported to Powered by Vanilla by Chris Ireland, modified by the "theFB" team.
Comments
Surely we need moonbase alpha first... but the moon isn't exciting enough
Instagram
We were promised flying cars, x-ray specs, space tourism, and a working week which seemingly only involved turning up on Monday mornings to turn the machines on.
And what have we actually got from TW's Aladdin's cave of goodies?
Velcro, and some bendy metal. That's what!
CNN: "Editor's Note: Barack Obama is President of the United States"
"Take these three items, some WD-40, a vise grip, and a roll of duct tape. Any man worth his salt can fix almost any problem with this stuff alone." - Walt Kowalski
"Only two things are infinite - the universe, and human stupidity. And I'm not sure about the universe." - Albert Einstein
Studio: https://www.voltperoctave.com
Music: https://www.euclideancircuits.com
Me: https://www.jamesrichmond.com
"I'm listening to the jam...."
Given the fact that sending a bare crew (5 or 6 people) would probably require launching over 1000t of stuff (people, supplies for nearly two years, radiation shielding, fuel etc) and we can currently only manage to send about 20% of that into Earth orbit while using an enormous amount of fuel, it strikes me that there's a significant problem which it's most likely going to take more than a couple of decades to fix.
Of course, this is all irrelevant, because that piece is more about self-aggrandising for the US than it is about human endeavour and manned exploration of the solar system.
That's one reason why I think it will be China - the US may be on the way out as an economic superpower, and more likely that China will be the dominant power in the likely time scale of Mars exploration, which I doubt is going to be within the next twenty years and probably not thirty.
It's also going to be much easier for a nation which may accept the idea that the first explorers aren't coming back - the US has already ruled that out. By far the most difficult part of the return trip is getting back off Mars into orbit - it's not like launching from the Moon where there is no atmosphere to cause trouble. You have to use a large rocket and build something much more like a launch platform on Earth, which will take huge resources and a lot of people on Mars.
So I think the only way to do it is to establish a colony first, then ship in the components for the return vehicle and assemble them there.
"Take these three items, some WD-40, a vise grip, and a roll of duct tape. Any man worth his salt can fix almost any problem with this stuff alone." - Walt Kowalski
"Only two things are infinite - the universe, and human stupidity. And I'm not sure about the universe." - Albert Einstein
Establishing a colony (of any size, really) would be a very, very time-consuming process given the time between available launch windows. You'd have to send one craft with enough resources for them to survive and basically twiddle their thumbs until the next window, when you send three or four haulers full of construction materials. Then repeat that pattern for the next 8 years or so...very, very costly...and what happens if the country (or company) in question runs out of money during that time?
The bonus is that gravity is much weaker on Mars (something like 10% of the mass of Earth), so reaching escape velocity has to be easier in absolute terms than for the outbound journey. The problem, I think, is the fact that you'd need a minimum of 2 years' of supplies in order for the crew to survive until the next launch window. Of course, if they miss that then they're utterly boned.
Exactly. Or some crisis happens in the colony in the mean time - no means of support or rescue.
I think it's about a third rather than a tenth - that's not the big problem, it's the atmosphere. Although it's much thinner than Earth's it's still a significant barrier to getting from the surface to orbit and would need something much more sophisticated than the little single-stage ascent vehicle on the Moon. (And I'm still surprised that was capable of reaching orbit!)
Whereas if you went with the full intention of establishing a self-supporting non-(at least initially)-returning colony in the first place, with building and other projects to be getting on with while they're waiting for rocket components to arrive, it becomes easier to see how it could be done. Of course that does make the initial outbound trip much more expensive and risky too, if you're talking about sending a lot more people.
It's not an easy project though. It dwarfs getting to the Moon by orders of magnitude, not just a little bit harder.
"Take these three items, some WD-40, a vise grip, and a roll of duct tape. Any man worth his salt can fix almost any problem with this stuff alone." - Walt Kowalski
"Only two things are infinite - the universe, and human stupidity. And I'm not sure about the universe." - Albert Einstein
This problem is shared with high-value military items like bombers and aircraft carriers - it isn't theoretical.
Studio: https://www.voltperoctave.com
Music: https://www.euclideancircuits.com
Me: https://www.jamesrichmond.com
The problem is well-known in the unmanned planetary probes too - by the time they get to the outer reaches of the solar system, their electronics and software is years or sometimes decades old. With the rate of technological change now, that can be very frustrating for the designers.
"Take these three items, some WD-40, a vise grip, and a roll of duct tape. Any man worth his salt can fix almost any problem with this stuff alone." - Walt Kowalski
"Only two things are infinite - the universe, and human stupidity. And I'm not sure about the universe." - Albert Einstein