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How long will the EU continue to back Barnier to lead negotiations if this stalemate over the Brexit bill amount doesn't get resolved?
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https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jul/18/polish-government-brings-forward-plans-to-assert-control-over-judges
As it stands the EU in it's current form is doomed. Apart from the finances of the Southern European states, which make the UK look like a model of good management, there are all kinds of problems in the East which are also likely to cause a major crisis for the EU. Hungary especially is on a very dangerous path:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/05/03/hungary-is-backsliding-what-is-the-european-parliament-doing-about-this/
We are better off out of the shambles with or without a deal. Ultimately, the EU will lose out as well if there is no deal. Sooner or later someone like Merkel will spell this out to Barnier.
From what I've read and heard the UK position is to look to negotiate the exit bill and trade arrangements together as they are co-dependent and combine to form the value of the deal. This is bargaining and seems a sensible approach. Barnier wants us to agree the sum the UK will pay the EU first before talking about trade. If they can't get past this then the only alternative is compromise.
The 5 tactics of negotiation are:
Emotion
Logic
Threat
--------------------------------
Bargaining
Compromise
Use the top 3 first as you give nothing away. Bargaining is "if I give you this then you give that" and work has to be done to value tradeables ahead of offering or accepting them.
Compromise is "I give you this" with nothing in return and is last resort.
My question is will the EU continue to back this hard-line approach indefinitely, even if it meant no deal and so no payment on exit? That's a big hole in the EU coffers which will need to be filled by the remaining countries, are they banking on a UK compromise and we cave in on the amount asked for?
Most of this is posturing to make it seem like a bad idea to leave to other countries and the EU's normal sour grapes, when things don't go it's way.
Just shows:
- Why the EU is far from just the "free market" that we joined
- Why we should have left years ago.
If we all end up in another recession, will it (like the one) be more painful for those nations with their own currency? Or those sharing one across vastly different economies? Answers on a post card...UK is the second biggest economy in the EU - we are arguably more important to the EU than they are to us. Depends how you look at it tbh. in terms of trade opportunity, most of the EU is made up of small poor countries with very shaky economies. With the UK out of the picture, Germany is propping the whole thing up even more. France is knackered, Spain is knackered, Italy is really knackered. After that, you have no major economies or populations left.
There's say 500M people in the EU. Once out of the EU, we can trade freely with major population centres - Brazil (>200M), India (>1 BN), China (<1 Bn), USA (320M), Mexico (127M), SE Asia/Indochinese Penninsula (>400M), Turkey (90m)
Most of the above economies are growing exponentially with young aspirational populations. Europe's population is ageing and lacking youth (a key force for economic growth).
If we get it right, and its a huge if, it could be very good for us, and the EU would worry a lot about the consequences of it.
Lets not forget, the EU wants Brexit to fail badly (for the UK): if it is a success, the EU risks collapse.
The idea of a common market (what we originally signed up for) is sound in principle, the united states of Europe is just not possible in the next 3 decades and will be thier downfall. It's sad because had we stayed in and moved for changes the union could have been saved (my prefferred option). As it is we will suffer in the short term but ten years from now there will be other former EU nations looking to us with envy.
In the ideal world it would all be good. In this value-engineered version of reality, I'm not so sure. Europe at least still harbours a few decent ideas about the human condition and not everything is judged on profit.
"I'm going to teach you a lesson"
and
"I'm going to teach you what this means"
are not the same thing
Well, we're through the looking glass now. I'd like to be able to think that we're going to be better off outside the EU, but as you can see, I fear that it won't quite work out like that.
As far as GM goes, I predict a situation similar to that the US citizens face, where corporate interest/lobbying has blocked the clear identification of GM material in the *human* food chain. Informed choice is good.
"Take these three items, some WD-40, a vise grip, and a roll of duct tape. Any man worth his salt can fix almost any problem with this stuff alone." - Walt Kowalski
"Only two things are infinite - the universe, and human stupidity. And I'm not sure about the universe." - Albert Einstein