Sell Tesla?

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ToneControlToneControl Frets: 11791
Top-rated analyst 18 years in a row says sell:

https://www.barrons.com/articles/sell-tesla-stock-analyst-says-its-valuation-is-mind-boggling-51595943108

He left his price target unchanged at $900 a share

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/28/bernstein-downgrades-tesla-to-underperform.html

Bernstein downgrades Tesla, calls valuation ‘mind-boggling’ and ‘unprecedented’ since tech bubble






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  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Frets: 13929
    edited July 2020
    Not yet. If Tesla is accepted into S&P500 the index tracker funds will have to pile in and the price will go up further.

    Elon Musk is an enigma. Who thought Space X could really turn a commercial profit on the extremely high stakes business of space flight?...but they have.

    tying yourself to the train track with a short sell while the Tesla express is thundering towards you isn't a good bet....not yet. 


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  • stickyfiddlestickyfiddle Frets: 26753
    It feels hugely overpriced when the cars have plenty of issues with late delivery and bad QC. SpaceX is run by different people, so while I appreciate Musk's genius (despite seeming like a pretty terrible human being) I don't see Tesla and SpaceX as being that closely linked on the fundamental stuff.

    We've just made a move partially away from tech as we've had frankly silly growth in the last quarter and want to consolidate a little. 
    The Assumptions - UAE party band for all your rock & soul desires
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  • FuengiFuengi Frets: 2849
    On one hand I really like Elon Musk. On the other he seems to me like he is constantly diverting attention away from the things he's failing to deliver. 

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  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Frets: 13929
    edited July 2020
    Billionaire venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya remains heavily invested in Tesla and sees a future beyond EVs. Toni Sacconaghi is an analyst, not sure how much skin he has in the game, beyond trying to make headlines.

    Question is though, will Elon Musk venture into widespread community power distribution, challenging the centralised generation/distribution model via Tesla or a new start-up company?

    https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tesmanian-blog/tesla-tsla-elon-musk-chamath-palihapitiya

    The Tesla stock bubble is fascinating and it will be interesting to see if the bubble bursts catastrophically or keeps growing.

    Meanwhile Elon Musk challenges Johnny Depp to a cage fight....!!


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  • SteffoSteffo Frets: 572
    I have cashed in. Own one of their cars and I think they will grow but the valuation is bonkers.
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  • Danny1969Danny1969 Frets: 10357
    Although Graphene has seemed like vapourware for a good few years now they are now at the stage where they can produce it at a fraction of the original cost and it reasonably large quantities. There's already powerbanks available to buy which use graphene along with lithium. Now the extended capacity of the battery with a content of graphene isn't anything to get excited by, maybe 15 to  25% more for a given size but the extremely low resistance super conductor quality of graphene can reduce charge time without overheating by 2 thirds. 20 mins for a full charge on a power bank or phone battery rather than over an hour.
    Tesla are in a better position than anyway to exploit the properties of graphene into battery production and I think when they do their share price will rocket.  An electric car battery cell that can be charged in 20 minutes without excess heat or damage will be the end of range anxiety and electric cars sales will rocket.  
    www.2020studios.co.uk 
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  • RaymondLinRaymondLin Frets: 11813
    I think once other manufacturers start releasing more electric cars in their line up Tesla's dominance in the electric car will diminish and with it their stock prices. 
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  • BBBluesBBBlues Frets: 635
    Tesla is currently a growth stock, it’s current price is based on pure speculation... fanned by the flames of being a trendy stock, and high levels of fomo.

    Short term - likely to be included in the S&P500, so yes trackers will need to buy up... however remember some will just synthesise with derivatives.

    Long term business for Tesla will be in their car batteries, probably providing for other leading car manufactures who already have huge production lines and market know how.
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  • ToneControlToneControl Frets: 11791
    Not yet. If Tesla is accepted into S&P500 the index tracker funds will have to pile in and the price will go up further.

    Elon Musk is an enigma. Who thought Space X could really turn a commercial profit on the extremely high stakes business of space flight?...but they have.

    tying yourself to the train track with a short sell while the Tesla express is thundering towards you isn't a good bet....not yet. 
    Often more complicated than that, the market will have already anticpated the S+P listing for many entrants, and many will take profits so the price goes down, not up.

    Similarly, a positive annual report often causes the share price to fall, and a negative one for it to rise, depending on what the market had already priced in

    Those short sellers are not inexperienced, do you want to bet your life savings against them?

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  • ToneControlToneControl Frets: 11791
    Danny1969 said:
    Although Graphene has seemed like vapourware for a good few years now they are now at the stage where they can produce it at a fraction of the original cost and it reasonably large quantities. There's already powerbanks available to buy which use graphene along with lithium. Now the extended capacity of the battery with a content of graphene isn't anything to get excited by, maybe 15 to  25% more for a given size but the extremely low resistance super conductor quality of graphene can reduce charge time without overheating by 2 thirds. 20 mins for a full charge on a power bank or phone battery rather than over an hour.
    Tesla are in a better position than anyway to exploit the properties of graphene into battery production and I think when they do their share price will rocket.  An electric car battery cell that can be charged in 20 minutes without excess heat or damage will be the end of range anxiety and electric cars sales will rocket.  
    and no other manufacturer knows how to build reliable cars more efficiently?

    The share price is already beyond the price where any dividend return can realistically be expected, do Tesla own the patents for all battery technology?
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  • ToneControlToneControl Frets: 11791
    BBBlues said:
    Tesla is currently a growth stock, it’s current price is based on pure speculation... fanned by the flames of being a trendy stock, and high levels of fomo.

    Short term - likely to be included in the S&P500, so yes trackers will need to buy up... however remember some will just synthesise with derivatives.

    Long term business for Tesla will be in their car batteries, probably providing for other leading car manufactures who already have huge production lines and market know how.
    Agreed, many ETFs are significantly synthetic

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  • ToneControlToneControl Frets: 11791
    Daimler (Mercedes)  Tangible Book Value  €45,366,000, market cap  =$50b, ratio = 1.06
    Tesla Tangible Book Value $6,081,000, market cap =  $273b, ratio = 0.02

    so tangible value of Tesla is priced 50 times higher than Mercedes. 

    I think companies like Mercedes will survive, wherever they get batteries from. Tesla is way behind with all its plans, and is poor at manufacturing cars
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  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Frets: 13929
    edited July 2020
    I think once other manufacturers start releasing more electric cars in their line up Tesla's dominance in the electric car will diminish and with it their stock prices. 
    The advantage Tesla has is that they are not a traditional petrol/diesel car manufacturer. All the other manufacturers have large legacy product lines, manufacturing plants and staff to transition to EVs.

    Where Tesla could unfold is in the scaling up of reliable high quality production. The transition from boutique to household staple will be challenging, but Apple did it with a luxury device.


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  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Frets: 13929
    edited July 2020
    Not yet. If Tesla is accepted into S&P500 the index tracker funds will have to pile in and the price will go up further.

    Elon Musk is an enigma. Who thought Space X could really turn a commercial profit on the extremely high stakes business of space flight?...but they have.

    tying yourself to the train track with a short sell while the Tesla express is thundering towards you isn't a good bet....not yet. 
    Often more complicated than that, the market will have already anticpated the S+P listing for many entrants, and many will take profits so the price goes down, not up.

    Similarly, a positive annual report often causes the share price to fall, and a negative one for it to rise, depending on what the market had already priced in

    Those short sellers are not inexperienced, do you want to bet your life savings against them?

    No, I wouldn't, I'm happy to have a small stake in Tesla as part of a diversified fund but I wouldn't commit a large amount to that one stock either to buy or short sell, I don't invest in any single stocks. If I had some Tesla stock I would be looking to sell immediately after they join S&P500 to lock in the profits as I'm not experienced enough to try and fine tune the timing any better but looking at the graph this year it's obvious that a near vertical ascent is not sustainable and surely will not last much longer. Maybe it's already peaked but I think there may just be a little more to go...or is the venture capitalist fella right and we could see $4K a share?

    Short selling isn't for me and even though Tesla looks such a likely candidate for a short sell it's a risky game to play with retirement funds. I would only play with short selling and short term trading with money I could afford to lose completely, a few £K pocket money, no more.

    Many of the short sellers have may have lost a lot of money already by trying to short sell earlier in the year. There was a lot of noise that Tesla was overpriced in February but the stock has rocketed even further. The bubble will burst but trying to calculate when is a risky business and you need a lot of cash reserves and nerves of steel to hold your position as the price goes up without caving in and going bust. 

    The tech fund I invest in is Polar Capital Global Technology and as far as I'm aware they have no Tesla stock in their portfolio, their investment model appears to be to let the initial startup bubble burst then pick up tech stock as companies are about to transition and mature. Baillie Gifford hold 7% of their American fund in Tesla, which I am also invested in, not heavily yet but I plan to add more money over the long term regardless of their current position with Tesla.


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  • stickyfiddlestickyfiddle Frets: 26753
    I think once other manufacturers start releasing more electric cars in their line up Tesla's dominance in the electric car will diminish and with it their stock prices. 
    The advantage Tesla has is that they are not a traditional petrol/diesel car manufacturer. All the other manufacturers have large legacy product lines, manufacturing plants and staff to transition to EVs.

    Where Tesla could unfold is in the scaling up of reliable high quality production. The transition from boutique to household staple will be challenging, but Apple did it with a luxury device.
    Yes. But they also have the understanding of how to make cars. There's little doubt that Tesla have done the electric bit very well (including the charging infrastructure, at least in the US), but building the rest of the car isn't straightforward, and that's where they have struggled. I don't expect that every traditional car company will get the transition to electric right and thrive, but you'd be mad to assume none of them will
    The Assumptions - UAE party band for all your rock & soul desires
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  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Frets: 13929
    edited July 2020
    I think once other manufacturers start releasing more electric cars in their line up Tesla's dominance in the electric car will diminish and with it their stock prices. 
    The advantage Tesla has is that they are not a traditional petrol/diesel car manufacturer. All the other manufacturers have large legacy product lines, manufacturing plants and staff to transition to EVs.

    Where Tesla could unfold is in the scaling up of reliable high quality production. The transition from boutique to household staple will be challenging, but Apple did it with a luxury device.
    Yes. But they also have the understanding of how to make cars. There's little doubt that Tesla have done the electric bit very well (including the charging infrastructure, at least in the US), but building the rest of the car isn't straightforward, and that's where they have struggled. I don't expect that every traditional car company will get the transition to electric right and thrive, but you'd be mad to assume none of them will
    I agree, that makes sense, my bet would be on Citroen to come up with a range of EV's that has all the Tesla flash but is cheap and popular enough for the chav masses to buy, certainly across Europe.

    Although Apple have managed to get the masses to buy a high price luxury phone, the world over, I wouldn't be betting on Tesla to do the same...but you never know. Only just a few years ago I would have laughed at the prospect of space rocket modules being able to fall back to earth at supersonic speeds, be slowed down and then guided to land simultaneously on launch pads so they could be reused.

    Long range EV or hydrogen haulage trucks will be the next real game changer to reduce road traffic emissions.


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  • BBBluesBBBlues Frets: 635
    edited July 2020
    A £1k phone is a bit different to a £100k EV. I'm not sure I buy the behavioural consumer link by the masses seeming as one is affordable by most, and the other by few.

    The bodywork on Tesla cars has hundreds of parts compared to just dozens in other vehicles. People have been waiting over a year to get theirs fixed after a crash, the backlog is insane. Insurance therefore is crazy expensive (they don't want open claims that long), if you can find insurance now at all. Courtesy cars provided by the insurer only given for 3 months or so is leaving owners having to purchase another car whilst their ££ car is sat on the drive.

    No dealerships etc.

    If anything their model seems anti-expansion.
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  • Danny1969Danny1969 Frets: 10357
    Danny1969 said:
    Although Graphene has seemed like vapourware for a good few years now they are now at the stage where they can produce it at a fraction of the original cost and it reasonably large quantities. There's already powerbanks available to buy which use graphene along with lithium. Now the extended capacity of the battery with a content of graphene isn't anything to get excited by, maybe 15 to  25% more for a given size but the extremely low resistance super conductor quality of graphene can reduce charge time without overheating by 2 thirds. 20 mins for a full charge on a power bank or phone battery rather than over an hour.
    Tesla are in a better position than anyway to exploit the properties of graphene into battery production and I think when they do their share price will rocket.  An electric car battery cell that can be charged in 20 minutes without excess heat or damage will be the end of range anxiety and electric cars sales will rocket.  
    and no other manufacturer knows how to build reliable cars more efficiently?

    The share price is already beyond the price where any dividend return can realistically be expected, do Tesla own the patents for all battery technology?
    No but the gigafactory has more manufacturing capability than every other factory in the world combined ... plus the next biggest player Panasonic is an investor in the Gigafactory. The scale of the place is just unprecedented. 

    I know f#ck all about shares mind, but in the electronics industry battery technology lags way behind everything else ... so I can see the potential for a new battery made on that scale making a lot of money. 

     
    www.2020studios.co.uk 
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  • ToneControlToneControl Frets: 11791
    I think once other manufacturers start releasing more electric cars in their line up Tesla's dominance in the electric car will diminish and with it their stock prices. 
    The advantage Tesla has is that they are not a traditional petrol/diesel car manufacturer. All the other manufacturers have large legacy product lines, manufacturing plants and staff to transition to EVs.

    Where Tesla could unfold is in the scaling up of reliable high quality production. The transition from boutique to household staple will be challenging, but Apple did it with a luxury device.
    how is not being experienced in manufacturing cars an advantage?

    I saw loads of stuff years back explaining how Tesla design for manufacturing was poor, and they have had endless delays in setting up production lines, even having to manually build some cars, output has been catastrophically below plans at many times

    i.e. they already have trouble scaling up

    Apple were present at the start of a new market, and grew in size as the market grew.
    Tesla is 120 years late for car manufacturing
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  • ToneControlToneControl Frets: 11791
    Danny1969 said:
    Danny1969 said:
    Although Graphene has seemed like vapourware for a good few years now they are now at the stage where they can produce it at a fraction of the original cost and it reasonably large quantities. There's already powerbanks available to buy which use graphene along with lithium. Now the extended capacity of the battery with a content of graphene isn't anything to get excited by, maybe 15 to  25% more for a given size but the extremely low resistance super conductor quality of graphene can reduce charge time without overheating by 2 thirds. 20 mins for a full charge on a power bank or phone battery rather than over an hour.
    Tesla are in a better position than anyway to exploit the properties of graphene into battery production and I think when they do their share price will rocket.  An electric car battery cell that can be charged in 20 minutes without excess heat or damage will be the end of range anxiety and electric cars sales will rocket.  
    and no other manufacturer knows how to build reliable cars more efficiently?

    The share price is already beyond the price where any dividend return can realistically be expected, do Tesla own the patents for all battery technology?
    No but the gigafactory has more manufacturing capability than every other factory in the world combined ... plus the next biggest player Panasonic is an investor in the Gigafactory. The scale of the place is just unprecedented. 

    I know f#ck all about shares mind, but in the electronics industry battery technology lags way behind everything else ... so I can see the potential for a new battery made on that scale making a lot of money. 

     
    have you checked that info?
    I just did a quick search,
    this one says tesla is not the biggest EV battery maker:

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autos-batteries-factbox/factbox-the-worlds-biggest-electric-vehicle-battery-makers-idUSKBN1Y02JG#:~:text=China's%20Contemporary%20Amperex%20Technology%20(CATL,and%20Honda%20Motor%20Co%20(7267.

    (Reuters) - Asian companies dominate the market for electric vehicle (EV) batteries and they are expanding their production capacity in Europe, China and the United States in a fight to win lucrative contracts from global automakers.
    Some carmakers worry, however, there won’t be enough batteries for all the EVs they plan to launch in the coming years and a bitter row between South Korea’s SK Innovation and LG Chem risks exacerbating the potential shortfall.


    the Tesla site says the gigafactory is intended to supply all of Tesla's batteries

    Who is supplying the other car makers who currently have 99.2% market share in making and selling cars?

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