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Hydrogen is the future. Battery power might work in the UK but the distances here are relatively short. For the kind of distances in a lot of other countries, it's a non starter - especially for freight.
Hydrogen would solve a lot of other problems. There are massive problems with the supply of lithium and cobalt for batteries.
Hydrogen also solves the problem of how to store intermittent energy from renewables like solar and wind. If we have big banks of battery on the electricity network, it will be expensive as they will need to be replaced on a regular basis. Batteries have a finite life span. If you get three years out of a phone battery, you are doing very well. The ones they use on the mains will probably have better lifespan that that, but it will still be a huge issue. It will be very expensive with the lithium and cobalt supply issue
Hydrogen would also mean that you wouldn't need to spend vast amounts of money on installing millions of car charging points, and even more on top upgrading the mains network to cope with the high currents.
Batteries might be part of the mix, but hydrogen is going to be the backbone of transport - especially as it will work in countries without electricity infrastructure.
For that reason, it looks to me that Tesla is grossly overvalued.
- Toyota’s long term debt = US$185 billion
- Ford’s long term debt = US$154 billion
- GM’s long term debt = US$100 billion ( + a US$14 billion unpaid bailout loan)
- Daimler’s long term debt = US$106 billion
- BMW’s long term debt = US$127 billion
Tesla's debt is US$13 billion**these figure are from 2019
That advantage may count for nothing if they cannot get mass manufacturing on a global scale sorted.
Elon Musk has already stated that Tesla's energy business ambitions will see that side of the business be bigger than it's car business. That's the bet the venture capitalist's are waging and that is what may keep the share price up. The energy business is old and stale and ripe for a challenging disruptor.
Plus they have their AI technology chip reported to be 4 years ahead of all competition by Ark Investments.
So, to answer you opening question:
Sell Tesla?
Yes - probably now or soon if you hold stock purchased at June 2020 or earlier prices, to lock in a handsome profit. Yes the stock may go on to higher prices but a profit is guaranteed today.
No - if you plan to fund a short sell now, especially with retirement funds. You could end up paying interest and lose out if the price doesn't come down in a reasonable time frame.
Daimler has €106m in liabilities, but €302m in assets
Tesla has $27b liabilities, and $34b assets
not such a rosy picture eh?
I'm doing neither, you asked the question. Why?
The theory is that if the bubble bursts for any of Tesla, Apple, Facebook, google, it could set off a domino effect with the other bubbles
Personally I don't see it happening btw
Daimler has €106m in liabilities, but €302m in assets, total = +€196b
Market cap = €43b
so you're buying €54 worth of Mercedes for €40
Tesla has $27b liabilities, and $34b assets total = +$7b
Market cap = $274b
so you're buying $53 worth of Tesla for $1500
I suppose my motivation is that I want normal market forces to resume, so I am pointing out how big this bubble is
Its an interesting topic, and acts as stand out test case in terms of how the US markets and investors behave.
The big 5 tech giants (Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Google) are driving the S&P500. Did you know that YTD those 5 have returned +35%, and the other 495 have delivered -5%... the weighted avg nets off to +2%.
The US is an asset bubble, where many people's wealth is entirely dependent on over inflated asset prices which have very little relationship with actual earnings of stock. The Fed can only pump in so much cash to prop it up... once the market becomes unresponsive and immune to QE it will stall and a huge correction will occur. Might be a month, might be 5-10 years... but it will happen.
The shift to conserving price rather than growth has already begun, just look at current gold and raw material prices.
I did look in to hydrogen cells the last time this come up and it is a great solution for sited vehicles like buses it's not so great for personally owned cars. Plus you need fossil fuel to make hydrogen cheaply and the process contributes to global warming. Using electrolysis doesn't but that;s expensive at the moment.
I don's agree with your battery statement, my 9 year old laptop is on it;s original battery - the very same 1856 cells used in a Tesla battery. The construction is very different from a phone battery which is basically a Lipo sandwich with no individual control or vote out of bad or poor performing cells.
Who knows what;s gonna happen but if I had any money to invest I would invest in Tesla but would expect a long and rocky ride not a quick profit.
If you try to second guess a bubble, you'll still be in it when it pops.
If you're happy with you're gain, take it and put it somewhere else. Never regret a gain that comes from hidesight.
There are a lot of bubbles at the moment.
Tesla will soon get the software to a point where it can transition from driver assistance to full safe driverless automation. You will call your car via your phone to come and pick you up and take you to your location without any human intervention reliably and safely.
Once the driverless genie is out of the bottle then it's growth will be exponential.
How exactly is an autotesla supposed to behave when an asshole hauling cooking oil barrels behind their c class Mercedes swerves in front of you as you careen at 90mph on the middle lane in the Autobhan. Does it swerve itself into the front of the incoming left lane Audi or does it slam on its brakes causing the polish lorry who decided to overtake behind you to L slide? Does It do some combination of both as the situation evolves? Can it detect the loose bus wheel cover dancing across the lanes in front of you? Are you going to trust your life, and your family’s to Silicon Valley tech vanity projects? Why are pilots still landing planes?
https://www.thefretboard.co.uk/discussion/11880/
Tell me something that Tesla has that other companies don't have
"As I see it, Tesla currently does at least four things better than all the auto makers:
1. It develops cars as it would a software product.
Tesla builds cars by developing software on unique hardware, much in the way Apple develops the iPhone or Microsoft leverages Intel chips and Dell PCs. This enables the company to improve its cars’ software functionality every few weeks. This is in sharp contrast to the traditional auto industry model where the product is the same for as long as you drive it.
With fewer parts, the total cost of Tesla ownership is significantly lower than an internal combustion vehicle. There’s no need for expensive oil changes, tune ups, replacing mufflers, and the like. The automakers, who derive significant profitability from their service businesses, know this.
2. It simplifies the buying process, putting the consumer in control.
Tesla doesn’t advertise in the Sunday newspaper or put ads on the radio. Instead is uses the classic software “inbound” sales model: They know consumers are smart and will find them. They understand the buyers’ journey very well.
Buying a Tesla is relatively simple: You go online, pick a model, add your features, place your deposit, and schedule pickup. Done. The last time I bought a car from a well-known Japanese automaker, the buying process was miserable from start to finish. I had to talk to a sales rep who would not give me a straight price and kept scurrying back to a manager, who wrote down successive new numbers before we came to a deal. When I picked up the car, the salesperson begged me to give him a 10 on the Net Promoter Score survey so he could get his bonus. I much prefer controlling the experience myself.
3. It leverages its prowess in battery technology to minimize the total cost of ownership over the vehicle’s lifetime.
Tesla’s battery-powered vehicles are significantly simpler than their internal combustion competitors. By some estimates they have significantly fewer parts per vehicle — around 20 — versus the 2,000 in internal combustion engines. This simplicity dramatically reduces the consumers total cost of ownership. Tesla has recently acquired battery manufacturing companies and will incorporate new kinds of battery-related technologies into its vehicles, which could further reduce cost of ownership. While other automakers are also rushing to acquire the right electric battery expertise, they will still be playing catch up as this market grows.
4. It attaches itself to the predominant market trend of the day — going green to reduce global warming.
From a marketing point of view, Tesla already has a big advantage in some categories. Who wouldn’t want to own a car that creates no pollution, eliminates visits to gas stations, and is truly green? Other automakers are going to be playing catch up on this issue for a long time.
Given this situation, what is the auto industry to do? Traditional car makers will be offering a growing range of electric vehicles in 2020 — but they aren’t necessarily software cars. They are often the cars you’re used to, fitted with electric motors.
To be sure, there are security risks with software cars, as with any kind of connectivity. But Tesla could expand its leadership role by modeling how to manage those risks effectively.
Traditional automakers must now imagine how to become software companies, which, given how far behind they are, means they will have to do what legacy software companies do when startups disrupt their core markets — they buy competitors to consolidate the market. We should watch for this activity, because it is likely about to start in earnest."
and VW CEO takes them seriously:
https://electrek.co/2019/10/28/tesla-serious-competitor-vw-ceo-as-defends-electric-automaker/
Personally, I'm excited but the innovation but I have no real care for whether the Tesla stock price is overcooked or correctly valued, they are an industry disruptor and that's a good thing. Whether they can be anything other than that is the speculation and only time will tell. Someone needs to disrupt the energy sector, maybe they can do that as well.
My next car purchase is likely to be an EV though, my retirement car, when my 4 year old diesel Citroen C4 Picasso reaches the end of the road or is forced off it by regulation, so I follow the EV evolution with great interest over the coming few years.