Sell Tesla?

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  • crunchmancrunchman Frets: 11413
    Danny1969 said:
    Although Graphene has seemed like vapourware for a good few years now they are now at the stage where they can produce it at a fraction of the original cost and it reasonably large quantities. There's already powerbanks available to buy which use graphene along with lithium. Now the extended capacity of the battery with a content of graphene isn't anything to get excited by, maybe 15 to  25% more for a given size but the extremely low resistance super conductor quality of graphene can reduce charge time without overheating by 2 thirds. 20 mins for a full charge on a power bank or phone battery rather than over an hour.
    Tesla are in a better position than anyway to exploit the properties of graphene into battery production and I think when they do their share price will rocket.  An electric car battery cell that can be charged in 20 minutes without excess heat or damage will be the end of range anxiety and electric cars sales will rocket.  
    That's all very well, but the charging infrastructure won't support that.  To charge a 100kWh battery in 20 minutes would need around 6500A at UK mains voltage.  You will be swapping the excess heat in the battery to excess heat in the mains cables.  Higher voltages would decrease the current, but introduce other problems.  It's highly unlikely that we are ever going get to the point where you can safely charge a car battery with decent range in a reasonable time 

    Hydrogen is the future.  Battery power might work in the UK but the distances here are relatively short.  For the kind of distances in a lot of other countries, it's a non starter - especially for freight.

    Hydrogen would solve a lot of other problems.  There are massive problems with the supply of lithium and cobalt for batteries.

    Hydrogen also solves the problem of how to store intermittent energy from renewables like solar and wind.  If we have big banks of battery on the electricity network, it will be expensive as they will need to be replaced on a regular basis.  Batteries have a finite life span.  If you get three years out of a phone battery, you are doing very well.  The ones they use on the mains will probably have better lifespan that that, but it will still be a huge issue.  It will be very expensive with the lithium and cobalt supply issue

    Hydrogen would also mean that you wouldn't need to spend vast amounts of money on installing millions of car charging points, and even more on top upgrading the mains network to cope with the high currents.

    Batteries might be part of the mix, but hydrogen is going to be the backbone of transport - especially as it will work in countries without electricity infrastructure.

    For that reason, it looks to me that Tesla is grossly overvalued.
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  • RaymondLinRaymondLin Frets: 11811
    If I were to get an electric car, I would get the Honda 1 (or is it E1?), I mean battery life is going to be short on an electric car anyway so it will be purely for commuting meaning small car is fine. Honda fits the bill perfectly and Honda knows how to make cars. Plus it looks amazing.
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  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Frets: 13929
    edited July 2020
    I think once other manufacturers start releasing more electric cars in their line up Tesla's dominance in the electric car will diminish and with it their stock prices. 
    The advantage Tesla has is that they are not a traditional petrol/diesel car manufacturer. All the other manufacturers have large legacy product lines, manufacturing plants and staff to transition to EVs.

    Where Tesla could unfold is in the scaling up of reliable high quality production. The transition from boutique to household staple will be challenging, but Apple did it with a luxury device.
    how is not being experienced in manufacturing cars an advantage?

    I saw loads of stuff years back explaining how Tesla design for manufacturing was poor, and they have had endless delays in setting up production lines, even having to manually build some cars, output has been catastrophically below plans at many times

    i.e. they already have trouble scaling up

    Apple were present at the start of a new market, and grew in size as the market grew.
    Tesla is 120 years late for car manufacturing
    I didn't say that Teslas lack of experience was an advantage. Their advantage is that they do not have the legacy debts that the traditional vehicle manufacturers have or vast amounts of capital tied up in traditional manufacturing plants and people. 

    • Toyota’s long term debt = US$185 billion
    • Ford’s long term debt = US$154 billion
    • GM’s long term debt = US$100 billion ( + a US$14 billion unpaid bailout loan)
    • Daimler’s long term debt = US$106 billion
    • BMW’s long term debt = US$127 billion 
    Tesla's debt is US$13 billion*

    *these figure are from 2019

    That advantage may count for nothing if they cannot get mass manufacturing on a global scale sorted.

    Elon Musk has already stated that Tesla's energy business ambitions will see that side of the business be bigger than it's car business. That's the bet the venture capitalist's are waging and that is what may keep the share price up. The energy business is old and stale and ripe for a challenging disruptor.

    Plus they have their AI technology chip reported to be 4 years ahead of all competition by Ark Investments.

    So, to answer you opening question:

    Sell Tesla?

    Yes - probably now or soon if you hold stock purchased at June 2020 or earlier prices, to lock in a handsome profit. Yes the stock may go on to higher prices but a profit is guaranteed today.

    No  - if you plan to fund a short sell now, especially with retirement funds. You could end up paying interest and lose out if the price doesn't come down in a reasonable time frame.


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  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Frets: 13929
    edited July 2020
    Cathie Wood of Ark Investments calls Tesla stock to break out and go to $7K a share in February when it was $700. Tesla stock is now trading at $1.4K.



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  • ToneControlToneControl Frets: 11789
    I think once other manufacturers start releasing more electric cars in their line up Tesla's dominance in the electric car will diminish and with it their stock prices. 
    The advantage Tesla has is that they are not a traditional petrol/diesel car manufacturer. All the other manufacturers have large legacy product lines, manufacturing plants and staff to transition to EVs.

    Where Tesla could unfold is in the scaling up of reliable high quality production. The transition from boutique to household staple will be challenging, but Apple did it with a luxury device.
    how is not being experienced in manufacturing cars an advantage?

    I saw loads of stuff years back explaining how Tesla design for manufacturing was poor, and they have had endless delays in setting up production lines, even having to manually build some cars, output has been catastrophically below plans at many times

    i.e. they already have trouble scaling up

    Apple were present at the start of a new market, and grew in size as the market grew.
    Tesla is 120 years late for car manufacturing
    I didn't say that Teslas lack of experience was an advantage. Their advantage is that they do not have the legacy debts that the traditional vehicle manufacturers have or vast amounts of capital tied up in traditional manufacturing plants and people. 

    • Toyota’s long term debt = US$185 billion
    • Ford’s long term debt = US$154 billion
    • GM’s long term debt = US$100 billion ( + a US$14 billion unpaid bailout loan)
    • Daimler’s long term debt = US$106 billion
    • BMW’s long term debt = US$127 billion 
    Tesla's debt is US$13 billion*

    *these figure are from 2019

    That advantage may count for nothing if they cannot get mass manufacturing on a global scale sorted.

    Elon Musk has already stated that Tesla's energy business ambitions will see that side of the business be bigger than it's car business. That's the bet the venture capitalist's are waging and that is what may keep the share price up. The energy business is old and stale and ripe for a challenging disruptor.

    Plus they have their AI technology chip reported to be 4 years ahead of all competition by Ark Investments.

    So, to answer you opening question:

    Sell Tesla?

    Yes - probably now or soon if you hold stock purchased at June 2020 or earlier prices, to lock in a handsome profit. Yes the stock may go on to higher prices but a profit is guaranteed today.

    No  - if you plan to fund a short sell now, especially with retirement funds. You could end up paying interest and lose out if the price doesn't come down in a reasonable time frame.
    you need to look at assets on balance sheets as well as liabilties

    Daimler has €106m in liabilities, but €302m in assets

    Tesla has $27b liabilities, and $34b assets

    not such a rosy picture eh?
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  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Frets: 13929
    edited July 2020

    you need to look at assets on balance sheets as well as liabilties

    Daimler has €106m in liabilities, but €302m in assets

    Tesla has $27b liabilities, and $34b assets

    not such a rosy picture eh?
    I don't need to look at anything, I just find the Tesla bubble interesting. I'm not the one asking the question. Are you holding Tesla stock? Looking to buy Tesla stock? are you considering a short sell?

    I'm doing neither, you asked the question. Why?


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  • ToneControlToneControl Frets: 11789
    edited July 2020

    you need to look at assets on balance sheets as well as liabilties

    Daimler has €106m in liabilities, but €302m in assets

    Tesla has $27b liabilities, and $34b assets

    not such a rosy picture eh?
    I don't need to look at anything, I just find the Tesla bubble interesting. I'm not the one asking the question. Are you holding Tesla stock? Looking to buy Tesla stock? are you considering a short sell?

    I'm doing neither, you asked the question. Why?
    I don't own any, we were discussing it in the general thread. It is interesting, but not solely for academic reasons
    The theory is that if the bubble bursts for any of Tesla, Apple, Facebook, google, it could set off a domino effect with the other bubbles
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  • dafuzzdafuzz Frets: 1522
    Isn't Musk's prediction of Level 5 (completely self-driving basically) by the end of the year a factor? I know very little of stocks etc but I would've thought licensing that tech would be a goldmine

    Personally I don't see it happening btw
    All practice and no theory
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  • ToneControlToneControl Frets: 11789
    To expland on my summary:

    Daimler has €106m in liabilities, but €302m in assets, total = +€196b
    Market cap = €43b
    Book Value Per Share (mrq)€53.67
    share price = €39.88

    so you're buying €54 worth of Mercedes for €40


    Tesla has $27b liabilities, and $34b assets total = +$7b 
    Market cap = $274b
    PE Ratio (TTM)764.23
    Book Value Per Share (mrq)$52.98
    share price = $1500

    so you're buying $53 worth of Tesla for $1500

    I suppose my motivation is that I want normal market forces to resume, so I am pointing out how big this bubble is
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  • BBBluesBBBlues Frets: 635

    you need to look at assets on balance sheets as well as liabilties

    Daimler has €106m in liabilities, but €302m in assets

    Tesla has $27b liabilities, and $34b assets

    not such a rosy picture eh?
    I don't need to look at anything, I just find the Tesla bubble interesting. I'm not the one asking the question. Are you holding Tesla stock? Looking to buy Tesla stock? are you considering a short sell?

    I'm doing neither, you asked the question. Why?
    I don't own any, we were discussing it in the general thread. It is interesting, but not solely for academic reasons
    The theory is that if the bubble bursts for any of Tesla, Apple, Facebook, google, it could set of a domino effect with the other bubbles

    Its an interesting topic, and acts as stand out test case in terms of how the US markets and investors behave.

    The big 5 tech giants (Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Google) are driving the S&P500. Did you know that YTD those 5 have returned +35%, and the other 495 have delivered -5%... the weighted avg nets off to +2%.

    The US is an asset bubble, where many people's wealth is entirely dependent on over inflated asset prices which have very little relationship with actual earnings of stock. The Fed can only pump in so much cash to prop it up... once the market becomes unresponsive and immune to QE it will stall and a huge correction will occur. Might be a month, might be 5-10 years... but it will happen.

    The shift to conserving price rather than growth has already begun, just look at current gold and raw material prices.
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  • danishbacondanishbacon Frets: 2694
    Buying on exec predictions is a bit like buying on a crystal ball. Just be sure to understand the distinction between speculation and investing. I would not want to be buying in as an investor anywhere near these prices. As a speculator, who knows, but @ToneControl seems to the maths right at the more sensible end of the market. I wonder if when all of the cash propped startups falter, whatever capital remains will flow towards the ‘cheap’ asset backed corps.   

    On a completely tangential note, I wonder if girls will be wooed when you rock up in a glorified self driving iPad on wheels? And quite frankly, Tesla’s are fugly, and suspect designed to have some resemblance to the founder himself. 
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  • ToneControlToneControl Frets: 11789
    BBBlues said:

    you need to look at assets on balance sheets as well as liabilties

    Daimler has €106m in liabilities, but €302m in assets

    Tesla has $27b liabilities, and $34b assets

    not such a rosy picture eh?
    I don't need to look at anything, I just find the Tesla bubble interesting. I'm not the one asking the question. Are you holding Tesla stock? Looking to buy Tesla stock? are you considering a short sell?

    I'm doing neither, you asked the question. Why?
    I don't own any, we were discussing it in the general thread. It is interesting, but not solely for academic reasons
    The theory is that if the bubble bursts for any of Tesla, Apple, Facebook, google, it could set of a domino effect with the other bubbles

    Its an interesting topic, and acts as stand out test case in terms of how the US markets and investors behave.

    The big 5 tech giants (Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Google) are driving the S&P500. Did you know that YTD those 5 have returned +35%, and the other 495 have delivered -5%... the weighted avg nets off to +2%.

    The US is an asset bubble, where many people's wealth is entirely dependent on over inflated asset prices which have very little relationship with actual earnings of stock. The Fed can only pump in so much cash to prop it up... once the market becomes unresponsive and immune to QE it will stall and a huge correction will occur. Might be a month, might be 5-10 years... but it will happen.

    The shift to conserving price rather than growth has already begun, just look at current gold and raw material prices.
    yep, none of my investments are in US stocks
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  • thebreezethebreeze Frets: 2797
    crunchman said:
    Danny1969 said:
    Although Graphene has seemed like vapourware for a good few years now they are now at the stage where they can produce it at a fraction of the original cost and it reasonably large quantities. There's already powerbanks available to buy which use graphene along with lithium. Now the extended capacity of the battery with a content of graphene isn't anything to get excited by, maybe 15 to  25% more for a given size but the extremely low resistance super conductor quality of graphene can reduce charge time without overheating by 2 thirds. 20 mins for a full charge on a power bank or phone battery rather than over an hour.
    Tesla are in a better position than anyway to exploit the properties of graphene into battery production and I think when they do their share price will rocket.  An electric car battery cell that can be charged in 20 minutes without excess heat or damage will be the end of range anxiety and electric cars sales will rocket.  
    That's all very well, but the charging infrastructure won't support that.  To charge a 100kWh battery in 20 minutes would need around 6500A at UK mains voltage.  You will be swapping the excess heat in the battery to excess heat in the mains cables.  Higher voltages would decrease the current, but introduce other problems.  It's highly unlikely that we are ever going get to the point where you can safely charge a car battery with decent range in a reasonable time 

    Hydrogen is the future.  Battery power might work in the UK but the distances here are relatively short.  For the kind of distances in a lot of other countries, it's a non starter - especially for freight.

    Hydrogen would solve a lot of other problems.  There are massive problems with the supply of lithium and cobalt for batteries.

    Hydrogen also solves the problem of how to store intermittent energy from renewables like solar and wind.  If we have big banks of battery on the electricity network, it will be expensive as they will need to be replaced on a regular basis.  Batteries have a finite life span.  If you get three years out of a phone battery, you are doing very well.  The ones they use on the mains will probably have better lifespan that that, but it will still be a huge issue.  It will be very expensive with the lithium and cobalt supply issue

    Hydrogen would also mean that you wouldn't need to spend vast amounts of money on installing millions of car charging points, and even more on top upgrading the mains network to cope with the high currents.

    Batteries might be part of the mix, but hydrogen is going to be the backbone of transport - especially as it will work in countries without electricity infrastructure.

    For that reason, it looks to me that Tesla is grossly overvalued.
    I agree with you and I think it's only a matter of time before everyone cottons on to the fact that hydrogen will be more efficient.  However, there will still be issues around power storage in hydrogen fuel cells rather than batteries and there will still be the need for massive investment in hydrogen cell refuelling points, although I imagine today's petrol stations can be easily adapted once the will is there.
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  • Danny1969Danny1969 Frets: 10357
    crunchman said:
    Danny1969 said:
    Although Graphene has seemed like vapourware for a good few years now they are now at the stage where they can produce it at a fraction of the original cost and it reasonably large quantities. There's already powerbanks available to buy which use graphene along with lithium. Now the extended capacity of the battery with a content of graphene isn't anything to get excited by, maybe 15 to  25% more for a given size but the extremely low resistance super conductor quality of graphene can reduce charge time without overheating by 2 thirds. 20 mins for a full charge on a power bank or phone battery rather than over an hour.
    Tesla are in a better position than anyway to exploit the properties of graphene into battery production and I think when they do their share price will rocket.  An electric car battery cell that can be charged in 20 minutes without excess heat or damage will be the end of range anxiety and electric cars sales will rocket.  
    That's all very well, but the charging infrastructure won't support that.  To charge a 100kWh battery in 20 minutes would need around 6500A at UK mains voltage.  You will be swapping the excess heat in the battery to excess heat in the mains cables.  Higher voltages would decrease the current, but introduce other problems.  It's highly unlikely that we are ever going get to the point where you can safely charge a car battery with decent range in a reasonable time 

    Hydrogen is the future.  Battery power might work in the UK but the distances here are relatively short.  For the kind of distances in a lot of other countries, it's a non starter - especially for freight.

    Hydrogen would solve a lot of other problems.  There are massive problems with the supply of lithium and cobalt for batteries.

    Hydrogen also solves the problem of how to store intermittent energy from renewables like solar and wind.  If we have big banks of battery on the electricity network, it will be expensive as they will need to be replaced on a regular basis.  Batteries have a finite life span.  If you get three years out of a phone battery, you are doing very well.  The ones they use on the mains will probably have better lifespan that that, but it will still be a huge issue.  It will be very expensive with the lithium and cobalt supply issue

    Hydrogen would also mean that you wouldn't need to spend vast amounts of money on installing millions of car charging points, and even more on top upgrading the mains network to cope with the high currents.

    Batteries might be part of the mix, but hydrogen is going to be the backbone of transport - especially as it will work in countries without electricity infrastructure.

    For that reason, it looks to me that Tesla is grossly overvalued.
    Your maths are well out mate, like by a very long way. Maybe a typo ?

    I did look in to hydrogen cells the last time this come up and it is a great solution for sited vehicles like buses it's not so great for personally owned cars. Plus you need fossil fuel to make hydrogen cheaply and the process contributes to global warming. Using electrolysis doesn't but that;s expensive at the moment. 

    I don's agree with your battery statement, my 9 year old laptop is on it;s original battery - the very same 1856 cells used in a Tesla battery. The construction is very different from a phone battery which is basically a Lipo sandwich with no individual  control or vote out of bad or poor performing cells. 

    Who knows what;s gonna happen but if I had any money to invest I would invest in Tesla but would expect a long and rocky ride not a quick profit. 
     
    www.2020studios.co.uk 
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  • BarnezyBarnezy Frets: 2173
    edited July 2020


    If you try to second guess a bubble, you'll still be in it when it pops. 

    If you're happy with you're gain, take it and put it somewhere else. Never regret a gain that comes from hidesight. 

    There are a lot of bubbles at the moment. 
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  • ToneControlToneControl Frets: 11789
    Danny1969 said:
    crunchman said:
    Danny1969 said:
    Although Graphene has seemed like vapourware for a good few years now they are now at the stage where they can produce it at a fraction of the original cost and it reasonably large quantities. There's already powerbanks available to buy which use graphene along with lithium. Now the extended capacity of the battery with a content of graphene isn't anything to get excited by, maybe 15 to  25% more for a given size but the extremely low resistance super conductor quality of graphene can reduce charge time without overheating by 2 thirds. 20 mins for a full charge on a power bank or phone battery rather than over an hour.
    Tesla are in a better position than anyway to exploit the properties of graphene into battery production and I think when they do their share price will rocket.  An electric car battery cell that can be charged in 20 minutes without excess heat or damage will be the end of range anxiety and electric cars sales will rocket.  
    That's all very well, but the charging infrastructure won't support that.  To charge a 100kWh battery in 20 minutes would need around 6500A at UK mains voltage.  You will be swapping the excess heat in the battery to excess heat in the mains cables.  Higher voltages would decrease the current, but introduce other problems.  It's highly unlikely that we are ever going get to the point where you can safely charge a car battery with decent range in a reasonable time 

    Hydrogen is the future.  Battery power might work in the UK but the distances here are relatively short.  For the kind of distances in a lot of other countries, it's a non starter - especially for freight.

    Hydrogen would solve a lot of other problems.  There are massive problems with the supply of lithium and cobalt for batteries.

    Hydrogen also solves the problem of how to store intermittent energy from renewables like solar and wind.  If we have big banks of battery on the electricity network, it will be expensive as they will need to be replaced on a regular basis.  Batteries have a finite life span.  If you get three years out of a phone battery, you are doing very well.  The ones they use on the mains will probably have better lifespan that that, but it will still be a huge issue.  It will be very expensive with the lithium and cobalt supply issue

    Hydrogen would also mean that you wouldn't need to spend vast amounts of money on installing millions of car charging points, and even more on top upgrading the mains network to cope with the high currents.

    Batteries might be part of the mix, but hydrogen is going to be the backbone of transport - especially as it will work in countries without electricity infrastructure.

    For that reason, it looks to me that Tesla is grossly overvalued.
    Your maths are well out mate, like by a very long way. Maybe a typo ?

    I did look in to hydrogen cells the last time this come up and it is a great solution for sited vehicles like buses it's not so great for personally owned cars. Plus you need fossil fuel to make hydrogen cheaply and the process contributes to global warming. Using electrolysis doesn't but that;s expensive at the moment. 

    I don's agree with your battery statement, my 9 year old laptop is on it;s original battery - the very same 1856 cells used in a Tesla battery. The construction is very different from a phone battery which is basically a Lipo sandwich with no individual  control or vote out of bad or poor performing cells. 

    Who knows what;s gonna happen but if I had any money to invest I would invest in Tesla but would expect a long and rocky ride not a quick profit. 
     
    you'd need to decide whether the price already went up enough (or too much) already, it's not enough to believe that they have the future market share in a hot technology, it's whether the current price is less now than it should be worth in the future, which frankly looks extremely unlikely mathematically
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  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Frets: 13929
    The thing Tesla leads in is the centralised AI autopilot software. They view the cars as simply vehicles that carry the software. Driver interventions when using the autopilot are recorded and uploaded to Tesla so the AI learns and improves.

    Tesla will soon get the software to a point where it can transition from driver assistance to full safe driverless automation. You will call your car via your phone to come and pick you up and take you to your location without any human intervention reliably and safely.

    Passing driverless regulation in China and US will be protracted but may get there, it has to at some point, Europe will be harder and much more resistant.

    Once the driverless genie is out of the bottle then it's growth will be exponential.


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  • danishbacondanishbacon Frets: 2694
    The thing Tesla leads in is the centralised AI autopilot software. They view the cars as simply vehicles that carry the software. Driver interventions when using the autopilot are recorded and uploaded to Tesla so the AI learns and improves.

    Tesla will soon get the software to a point where it can transition from driver assistance to full safe driverless automation. You will call your car via your phone to come and pick you up and take you to your location without any human intervention reliably and safely.

    Passing driverless regulation in China and US will be protracted but may get there, it has to at some point, Europe will be harder and much more resistant.

    Once the driverless genie is out of the bottle then it's growth will be exponential.

    I don’t buy it. Shouldn’t we also have some flying pods carrying us around or is that just in specialised markets like Dubai?

    How exactly is an autotesla supposed to behave when an asshole hauling cooking oil barrels behind their c class Mercedes swerves in front of you as you careen at 90mph on the middle lane in the Autobhan. Does it swerve itself into the front of the incoming left lane Audi or does it slam on its brakes causing the polish lorry who decided to overtake behind you to L slide? Does It do some combination of both as the situation evolves? Can it detect the loose bus wheel cover dancing across the lanes in front of you? Are you going to trust your life, and your family’s to Silicon Valley tech vanity projects? Why are pilots still landing planes?

    Since we’re looking into crystal balls, until the nature of driving changes fundamentally, ie, all are content with their self driving bubbles. I don’t see it. I see it maybe being useful as an assistance tool, like cruise control, self parking etc (and even then probably still not without risk). Buying Tesla stock, at these levels, on these dreams is pure speculation, simple as. 
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  • ToneControlToneControl Frets: 11789
    edited July 2020
    The thing Tesla leads in is the centralised AI autopilot software. They view the cars as simply vehicles that carry the software. Driver interventions when using the autopilot are recorded and uploaded to Tesla so the AI learns and improves.

    Tesla will soon get the software to a point where it can transition from driver assistance to full safe driverless automation. You will call your car via your phone to come and pick you up and take you to your location without any human intervention reliably and safely.

    Passing driverless regulation in China and US will be protracted but may get there, it has to at some point, Europe will be harder and much more resistant.

    Once the driverless genie is out of the bottle then it's growth will be exponential.

    this was news 6 years ago, and all the car makers are doing this
    https://www.thefretboard.co.uk/discussion/11880/

    Tell me something that Tesla has that other companies don't have
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  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Frets: 13929
    edited July 2020
    Lou Shipley, Harvard lecturer in technology sales suggests the following points sets Tesla apart from the competition from an article in Feb 2020:

    "As I see it, Tesla currently does at least four things better than all the auto makers:

    1. It develops cars as it would a software product.

    Tesla builds cars by developing software on unique hardware, much in the way Apple develops the iPhone or Microsoft leverages Intel chips and Dell PCs.  This enables the company to improve its cars’ software functionality every few weeks. This is in sharp contrast to the traditional auto industry model where the product is the same for as long as you drive it.

    With fewer parts, the total cost of Tesla ownership is significantly lower than an internal combustion vehicle. There’s no need for expensive oil changes, tune ups, replacing mufflers, and the like. The automakers, who derive significant profitability from their service businesses, know this.

    2. It simplifies the buying process, putting the consumer in control.

    Tesla doesn’t advertise in the Sunday newspaper or put ads on the radio. Instead is uses the classic software “inbound” sales model: They know consumers are smart and will find them. They understand the buyers’ journey very well.

    Buying a Tesla is relatively simple: You go online, pick a model, add your features, place your deposit, and schedule pickup. Done. The last time I bought a car from a well-known Japanese automaker, the buying process was miserable from start to finish. I had to talk to a sales rep who would not give me a straight price and kept scurrying back to a manager, who wrote down successive new numbers before we came to a deal. When I picked up the car, the salesperson begged me to give him a 10 on the Net Promoter Score survey so he could get his bonus. I much prefer controlling the experience myself.

    3. It leverages its prowess in battery technology to minimize the total cost of ownership over the vehicle’s lifetime.

    Tesla’s battery-powered vehicles are significantly simpler than their internal combustion competitors. By some estimates they have significantly fewer parts per vehicle — around 20 — versus the 2,000 in internal combustion engines. This simplicity dramatically reduces the consumers total cost of ownership. Tesla has recently acquired battery manufacturing companies and will incorporate new kinds of battery-related technologies into its vehicles, which could further reduce cost of ownership. While other automakers are also rushing to acquire the right electric battery expertise, they will still be playing catch up as this market grows.

    4. It attaches itself to the predominant market trend of the day — going green to reduce global warming.

    From a marketing point of view, Tesla already has a big advantage in some categories. Who wouldn’t want to own a car that creates no pollution, eliminates visits to gas stations, and is truly green?  Other automakers are going to be playing catch up on this issue for a long time.

    Given this situation, what is the auto industry to do? Traditional car makers will be offering a growing range of electric vehicles in 2020 — but they aren’t necessarily software cars. They are often the cars you’re used to, fitted with electric motors.

    To be sure, there are security risks with software cars, as with any kind of connectivity. But Tesla could expand its leadership role by modeling how to manage those risks effectively.

    Traditional automakers must now imagine how to become software companies, which, given how far behind they are, means they will have to do what legacy software companies do when startups disrupt their core markets — they buy competitors to consolidate the market. We should watch for this activity, because it is likely about to start in earnest."


    and VW CEO takes them seriously:

    https://electrek.co/2019/10/28/tesla-serious-competitor-vw-ceo-as-defends-electric-automaker/


    Personally, I'm excited but the innovation but I have no real care for whether the Tesla stock price is overcooked or correctly valued, they are an industry disruptor and that's a good thing. Whether they can be anything other than that is the speculation and only time will tell. Someone needs to disrupt the energy sector, maybe they can do that as well.

    My next car purchase is likely to be an EV though, my retirement car, when my 4 year old diesel Citroen C4 Picasso reaches the end of the road or is forced off it by regulation, so I follow the EV evolution with great interest over the coming few years.


    0reaction image LOL 0reaction image Wow! 0reaction image Wisdom
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