Sell Tesla?

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  • ToneControlToneControl Frets: 11789
    those are all comparisons with petrol/diesel vehicles

    most of the other car makers are making EVs too now 

    Best selling EV is from Nissan, not Tesla

    https://www.auto123.com/en/news/best-selling-electric-cars-world-nissan-leaf-tesla-model-s/65617/

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  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Frets: 13929
    edited July 2020
    those are all comparisons with petrol/diesel vehicles

    most of the other car makers are making EVs too now 

    Best selling EV is from Nissan, not Tesla

    https://www.auto123.com/en/news/best-selling-electric-cars-world-nissan-leaf-tesla-model-s/65617/

    Agreed, but it's not helping them is it?

    This from Nov 2019, pre COVID:

    "The automaker said its net income fell 54.8 percent in the last quarter, to 59 billion yen, or about $540 million, from the same time last year. Its revenue fell 6.6 percent in the same period.

    Nissan also reduced its profit forecast for the fiscal year that will end in March by 35 percent, to ¥110 billion. Vehicle sales, too, are expected to trail previous expectations by more than 5 percent, it said. The full-year dividend, which had been projected at ¥40 per share, could be revised, Nissan said, “following internal discussion.”

    With regards the Leaf, it's an ugly car and I wouldn't buy one. 


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  • ToneControlToneControl Frets: 11789
    those are all comparisons with petrol/diesel vehicles

    most of the other car makers are making EVs too now 

    Best selling EV is from Nissan, not Tesla

    https://www.auto123.com/en/news/best-selling-electric-cars-world-nissan-leaf-tesla-model-s/65617/

    Agreed, but it's not helping them is it?

    This from Nov 2019, pre COVID:

    "The automaker said its net income fell 54.8 percent in the last quarter, to 59 billion yen, or about $540 million, from the same time last year. Its revenue fell 6.6 percent in the same period.

    Nissan also reduced its profit forecast for the fiscal year that will end in March by 35 percent, to ¥110 billion. Vehicle sales, too, are expected to trail previous expectations by more than 5 percent, it said. The full-year dividend, which had been projected at ¥40 per share, could be revised, Nissan said, “following internal discussion.”

    With regards the Leaf, it's an ugly car and I wouldn't buy one. 


    I'm pointing out that Tesla does not have a unique product, and is not the market leader

    So Nissan had reduced profits, whereas Tesla would have made a loss (again) if it were not for state subsidies (regulatory credits, which it sells)

    To be fair, I test drove a £100k tesla, and the drive and interior were like a BMW 3 series, nothing special
    My wealthy friend prefers a Jag v8 to drive, as do many other high-end drivers, so Tesla aren't doing well with the image and driving side of it. We already know their manufacturing capability is embarassingly awful, hence the low sales and lack of profits
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  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Frets: 13929
    those are all comparisons with petrol/diesel vehicles

    most of the other car makers are making EVs too now 

    Best selling EV is from Nissan, not Tesla

    https://www.auto123.com/en/news/best-selling-electric-cars-world-nissan-leaf-tesla-model-s/65617/

    Agreed, but it's not helping them is it?

    This from Nov 2019, pre COVID:

    "The automaker said its net income fell 54.8 percent in the last quarter, to 59 billion yen, or about $540 million, from the same time last year. Its revenue fell 6.6 percent in the same period.

    Nissan also reduced its profit forecast for the fiscal year that will end in March by 35 percent, to ¥110 billion. Vehicle sales, too, are expected to trail previous expectations by more than 5 percent, it said. The full-year dividend, which had been projected at ¥40 per share, could be revised, Nissan said, “following internal discussion.”

    With regards the Leaf, it's an ugly car and I wouldn't buy one. 


    I'm pointing out that Tesla does not have a unique product, and is not the market leader

    So Nissan had reduced profits, whereas Tesla would have made a loss (again) if it were not for state subsidies (regulatory credits, which it sells)

    To be fair, I test drove a £100k tesla, and the drive and interior were like a BMW 3 series, nothing special
    My wealthy friend prefers a Jag v8 to drive, as do many other high-end drivers, so Tesla aren't doing well with the image and driving side of it. We already know their manufacturing capability is embarassingly awful, hence the low sales and lack of profits
    This analysis and comparison with GM strips out the regulatory credits:

    https://stockdividendscreener.com/auto-manufacturers/gm-and-tesla-automotive-revenue-and-gross-margin-comparison/

    "As seen from its historical results, Tesla has the capability of surpassing the results of GM. If history repeats itself, Tesla will eventually achieve a gross margin that will be higher than its competitor when the company reaches the needed sales volume.

    Despite additional costs of running retail stores, Tesla can successfully achieve the level of gross margin which is the same as General Motors. 

    Therefore, the valuation of over $100 billion in market capitalization that investors have put on Tesla as of this article is written is more or less justified judging from its growth potential in the future."

    Analysis can make the numbers look however it wants. I still think Tesla is an exciting innovator and the stock price will go up further in the short term but I wouldn't be betting on the long term.


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  • ToneControlToneControl Frets: 11789

    This analysis and comparison with GM strips out the regulatory credits:

    https://stockdividendscreener.com/auto-manufacturers/gm-and-tesla-automotive-revenue-and-gross-margin-comparison/

    "As seen from its historical results, Tesla has the capability of surpassing the results of GM. If history repeats itself, Tesla will eventually achieve a gross margin that will be higher than its competitor when the company reaches the needed sales volume.

    Despite additional costs of running retail stores, Tesla can successfully achieve the level of gross margin which is the same as General Motors. 

    Therefore, the valuation of over $100 billion in market capitalization that investors have put on Tesla as of this article is written is more or less justified judging from its growth potential in the future."

    Analysis can make the numbers look however it wants. I still think Tesla is an exciting innovator and the stock price will go up further in the short term but I wouldn't be betting on the long term.
    even if you believe that, Tesla Market cap = $274b currently, which is 174% higher than $100b
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  • thebreezethebreeze Frets: 2797
    Apologies to OP as this is diverting away slightly from your original question.  (I confess I'm more interested in the social and sustainability side of all this rather than the economics of share valuations).

    @danny1969 @crunchman - I've posted this company before, I think they are truly inspirational and imo the way transport thinking should be going, rather than the Tesla-type/traditional manufacturers direction which is too locked into historical methodology.  The site and company, as well as the vehicles, are interesting generally but they have a short piece on Hydrogen vs Batteries in the Points of View section.  Their approach is it's the wrong question to be asking and we should be organising solutions around different needs/priorities etc.  To link it to OP's question this is a very different approach to trying to maximise share value and returns to shareholders which you could say is inherently flawed when it comes to sustainability and the environment.  I don't want to start an argument it's just personally I find the thinking interesting (I hope you will too, I've got a feeling they adopt a different kind of company ownership etc) and in the main gives me hope for the future.

    https://www.riversimple.com
       
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  • ToneControlToneControl Frets: 11789
    thebreeze said:
    Apologies to OP as this is diverting away slightly from your original question.  (I confess I'm more interested in the social and sustainability side of all this rather than the economics of share valuations).

    @danny1969 @crunchman - I've posted this company before, I think they are truly inspirational and imo the way transport thinking should be going, rather than the Tesla-type/traditional manufacturers direction which is too locked into historical methodology.  The site and company, as well as the vehicles, are interesting generally but they have a short piece on Hydrogen vs Batteries in the Points of View section.  Their approach is it's the wrong question to be asking and we should be organising solutions around different needs/priorities etc.  To link it to OP's question this is a very different approach to trying to maximise share value and returns to shareholders which you could say is inherently flawed when it comes to sustainability and the environment.  I don't want to start an argument it's just personally I find the thinking interesting (I hope you will too, I've got a feeling they adopt a different kind of company ownership etc) and in the main gives me hope for the future.

    https://www.riversimple.com
       
    looks interesting
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  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Frets: 13929
    edited August 2020
    Tesla is going to do a 5 for 1 stock split. Overnight stock price is up +6.5%.

    The short sellers that haven't yet caved in with huge losses must be losing daily on the mounting charges and sweating profusely.

    https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-split-heres-what-that-means-51597182351 ;



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  • Tesla price went up 12.5% after the 5-1 stock split this weekend.

    Aswath Damodaran, professor of finance at NYU, suggests that traditional market cap measures don't necessarily apply to Tech stocks and suggests staying with the momentum:



    Tesla stock is up 68.8% since @ToneControl asked if it was time to sell Tesla back on July 28th following advice from "top rated analyst for 18 years" Toni Sacconaghi. From the original article "He left his price target unchanged at $900 a share". Well Toni may want to revisit his price target as it now effectively trading at $2,491 per share (pre-split value)!

    Legendary short seller Jim Chanos is still holding on to his view that Tesla stock should be shorted. I hope he's got deep pockets to cover his position! 

    The chap that puts these Tesla videos together is a huge Tesla Fanboi but the clips of Jim Chanos softening position on his Tesla short is notable.



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  • The big investing lesson I've learned in 2020 is how much you'd stake your life savings on a share price
    I've learned that investing your real savings feels very different to being an observer

    "Momentum" is a euphemism for a bubble
    You know it's a bubble for Tesla, everyone agrees, even Musk, so the only logical reason to invest is because you think you can ride it upwards and jump off before it bursts

    Trouble is, markets go up the stairs and down the lift shaft
    https://balentine.com/insights/blog/markets-take-the-stairs-up-and-the-elevator-down/

    how would/will you get your life savings out when the share you bought is 60% down and still dropping?
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  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Frets: 13929
    edited September 2020
    The big investing lesson I've learned in 2020 is how much you'd stake your life savings on a share price
    I've learned that investing your real savings feels very different to being an observer


    "Momentum" is a euphemism for a bubble
    You know it's a bubble for Tesla, everyone agrees, even Musk, so the only logical reason to invest is because you think you can ride it upwards and jump off before it bursts

    Trouble is, markets go up the stairs and down the lift shaft
    https://balentine.com/insights/blog/markets-take-the-stairs-up-and-the-elevator-down/

    how would/will you get your life savings out when the share you bought is 60% down and still dropping?
    All of my life savings apart from my emergency cash fund are invested in share prices and have been for decades. Not just one share price though. A small amount is invested in Tesla so I hope the price keeps going up but if it falls, the impact on me personally will be minimal.

    All I've learned from investing in 2020 is to stick with my original long term retirement wealth building plan, stay invested and keep adding more money each month, The market fell in March/April, I was down over 30% but did nothing and now a few months later it's recovered and more. It's a completely boring strategy that works.

    Also, I've learned that"market experts" are simply speculators that make a lot of noise and are full of wind and hot air whether they be calling for a stock to be shorted or the next big thing. The stock market has a lot of noise and guff surrounding it which is good entertainment for CNBC and fun to watch but that's all.

    What you are highlighting is the risk of individual stock picking and a short term outlook. If sensibly invested why would you ever need to get all your life savings out in a hurry?


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  • JalapenoJalapeno Frets: 6378
    I think Musk is a proto-Trump egomaniac knobber - witness his preening hissy fit rant about the cave rescue of the boys in the far east.
     
    He is to be lauded over SpaceX, but not the cars. Drummer mate had one, and he got clipped on country lane and the whole body disintegrated like a clown car - panels popping off all over the place - 6mth old car written off.

    Wouldn't touch a Tesla car.  Waiting for the Koreans or Japanese to perfect the model/utility mix.
    Imagine something sharp and witty here ......

    Feedback
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  • All of my life savings apart from my emergency cash fund are invested in share prices and have been for decades. Not just one share price though. A small amount is invested in Tesla so I hope the price keeps going up but if it falls, the impact on me personally will be minimal.

    All I've learned from investing in 2020 is to stick with my original long term retirement wealth building plan, stay invested and keep adding more money each month, The market fell in March/April, I was down over 30% but did nothing and now a few months later it's recovered and more. It's a completely boring strategy that works.

    This is the only really correct answer.  Obviously the best day to buy into anything is the end of the last day of a big drop, and the best time to sell is the day before the next drop happens, but noone knows when those day is until weeks afterwards - insider trading aside, obvs. A calm hand with a long term outlook and a diverse portfolio is the only consistent answer. 
    The Assumptions - UAE party band for all your rock & soul desires
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  • ICBMICBM Frets: 71956
    stickyfiddle said:

    This is the only really correct answer.  Obviously the best day to buy into anything is the end of the last day of a big drop, and the best time to sell is the day before the next drop happens, but noone knows when those day is until weeks afterwards - insider trading aside, obvs. A calm hand with a long term outlook and a diverse portfolio is the only consistent answer. 
    And the moral one. Personally, I hope all the short-sellers and other wheeler-dealers lose their shirts - they're parasites.

    Investment in the long-term future of industry creates wealth - short-term speculation on the future values of shares does not, and can sometimes have a catastrophic impact on the genuine investors.

    "Take these three items, some WD-40, a vise grip, and a roll of duct tape. Any man worth his salt can fix almost any problem with this stuff alone." - Walt Kowalski

    "Just because I don't care, doesn't mean I don't understand." - Homer Simpson

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  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Frets: 13929
    edited September 2020
    ICBM said:
    stickyfiddle said:

    This is the only really correct answer.  Obviously the best day to buy into anything is the end of the last day of a big drop, and the best time to sell is the day before the next drop happens, but noone knows when those day is until weeks afterwards - insider trading aside, obvs. A calm hand with a long term outlook and a diverse portfolio is the only consistent answer. 
    And the moral one. Personally, I hope all the short-sellers and other wheeler-dealers lose their shirts - they're parasites.

    Investment in the long-term future of industry creates wealth - short-term speculation on the future values of shares does not, and can sometimes have a catastrophic impact on the genuine investors.
    Wis'd.

    I invest through carefully chosen mutual funds and take a great interest in what in the portfolio. One of my investments, via part of my pension, is about £100K which is invested in a UK small companies fund which is invested in 30 or so companies like Greggs, Avon Rubber, Games Workshop, Future plc and many others. My wife works at Greggs and I genuinely want them to succeed as I do all those businesses, if they grow, my money grows with them and my hope is that down the road I can start to draw a modest income from my investments for retirement by selling off some shares a little at a time each year.

    As Warren Buffet says, shares are small pieces of companies, companies run by people, who employ people and make products or provide services we all enjoy, you place you money and trust in them and it's like buying a farm, you want it to do well and to grow over time. 


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  • SnapSnap Frets: 6256
    Tesla's future isn't in cars. It will be infrastructure and charging tech and the like. They already have an unrivalled charging network. It doesn't take a great leap to widen the availability of that to other car manufactures either through the existing infrastructure or through licensed kit/IP. 
    However, like all investments that have had strong growth, you make a call as to when to sell - along the lines of, have I made more than I expected, and is this the right time for me to sell, and what would I do with the gain?
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  • Snap said:
    Tesla's future isn't in cars. It will be infrastructure and charging tech and the like. They already have an unrivalled charging network. It doesn't take a great leap to widen the availability of that to other car manufactures either through the existing infrastructure or through licensed kit/IP. 
    However, like all investments that have had strong growth, you make a call as to when to sell - along the lines of, have I made more than I expected, and is this the right time for me to sell, and what would I do with the gain?
    and they are a Tech company that just happens to make electric cars.


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  • yockyyocky Frets: 806
    ICBM said:

    And the moral one. Personally, I hope all the short-sellers and other wheeler-dealers lose their shirts - they're parasites.

    Investment in the long-term future of industry creates wealth - short-term speculation on the future values of shares does not, and can sometimes have a catastrophic impact on the genuine investors.

    Don't think that's entirely fair. Some short sellers see themselves as waging a constant battle against charlatans and fraudsters, taking a stand against companies that are likely to impoverish unsophisticated investors. See Muddy Waters Research for example.

    It would be difficult to look at the Wirecard fiasco and conclude that short sellers were the problem.

    The lines aren't always so easy to draw.


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  • SnapSnap Frets: 6256
    Snap said:
    Tesla's future isn't in cars. It will be infrastructure and charging tech and the like. They already have an unrivalled charging network. It doesn't take a great leap to widen the availability of that to other car manufactures either through the existing infrastructure or through licensed kit/IP. 
    However, like all investments that have had strong growth, you make a call as to when to sell - along the lines of, have I made more than I expected, and is this the right time for me to sell, and what would I do with the gain?
    and they are a Tech company that just happens to make electric cars.
    Exactly, the cars are the gateway point into the longer game I think. I quite fancy a Cybertruck though! Bit big for UK roads, just a tad
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