Trump says Europe will have to start paying its way

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FreebirdFreebird Frets: 784
edited June 11 in Politics Economics
Not sure how the EU will handle any balancing of trade deals, but something will have to give if he follows through.


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  • Axe_meisterAxe_meister Frets: 2153
    The thing is, there is not much I've seen recently that says made in the USA especially in the consumer goods market. Even the big US brands make their stuff in the middle East and ship direct so there will be little impact of any Tarrifs, accepts Harlys Bourbon and Jeans.
    These will hit Trump where it hurts, his core voters.
    His Tarrifs (Steel/Aluminium/German cars) will however hit the US public in the pocket. There is a reason they buy so much from us. It is all higher quality.
    Certainly with cars I can't think of any US cars that compete in the same class as BMW/Merc/Audi.

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  • ICBMICBM Frets: 31628
    I think the big problem will be in things like computers - this is the reason that companies like Airbus can't defy the US and sell to places like Iran, because the planes contain US-made avionics and the US will cut off the supply.

    But hopefully this sort of nonsense will be a driver for developing our own European alternatives so we can eventually just put two fingers up to Trump. You can guarantee the Chinese will do, given the same imperative.
    "Take these three items, some WD-40, a vise grip, and a roll of duct tape. Any man worth his salt can fix almost any problem with this stuff alone."
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  • quarkyquarky Frets: 2243
    edited June 10
    Haven't watched the video, but isn't the EU tariff on cars already something like four times as high as the US tariff? 
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  • HeartfeltdawnHeartfeltdawn Frets: 11052
    edited June 10
    The thing is, there is not much I've seen recently that says made in the USA especially in the consumer goods market. Even the big US brands make their stuff in the middle East and ship direct so there will be little impact of any Tarrifs, accepts Harlys Bourbon and Jeans.
    These will hit Trump where it hurts, his core voters.
    His Tarrifs (Steel/Aluminium/German cars) will however hit the US public in the pocket. There is a reason they buy so much from us. It is all higher quality.
    Certainly with cars I can't think of any US cars that compete in the same class as BMW/Merc/Audi.

    The aluminium and steel tariffs could be a large own goal. But I get the feeling that the dislike of the opposition is so great in some voters that they would even give Trump a pass on tariffs that hurt their own workplaces. 

    quarky said:
    Haven't watched the video, but isn't the EU tariff on cars already something like four times as high as the US tariff? 

    2.5% EU to US for passenger cars, 10% going EU-US. Some vehicles going from the EU to the US can have 25% slapped on them. One example is this Nissan. 10% EU, 25% US. Protects their pickup industry. 

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/De7BpybWsAAC5lq.jpg
    I make Jeremy Paxman look like Fingermouse. 
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  • quarkyquarky Frets: 2243
    There are a lot more cars sold then pickups though I guess, so he does have a point.
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  • HeartfeltdawnHeartfeltdawn Frets: 11052
    quarky said:
    There are a lot more cars sold then pickups though I guess, so he does have a point.
    Trump frequently makes points whose validity is washed away by wilful exaggeration and flat-out lies. It's like listening to my 8 year old whining about how he didn't get the right time on the Xbox. 

    For 2017, Toyota estimate that two thirds of the market were SUV's and trucks.

    http://www.automobilemag.com/news/u-s-auto-sales-totaled-17-25-million-calendar-2017/

    GMC was the most popular brand of pickup in 2017 with sales of nearly 950,000. 

    https://www.tfltruck.com/2018/01/2017-pickup-truck-usa-sales-war-summary-won/

    So the pickup market is not s small one. By comparison, Jan-Sep 2017 saw some 40,000 pickups sold in the UK. Car sales were in the region of 2.5 million last year. 

    I'll go by the FT on the tariffs. 

    https://www.ft.com/content/2edf26f8-6b28-11e8-b6eb-4acfcfb08c11
    I make Jeremy Paxman look like Fingermouse. 
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  • quarkyquarky Frets: 2243
    edited June 11
    Sorry, can't get to the FT article. There is a Washington Post one here though, which has some interesting stats.


    It does look like the US faces more higher-tariffs imposed on their products that the EU.

    And they face substantial non-tariff barriers to trade too.

    Still don't think you can compare 2.5 times the tariff on pickups with 4 times the tariff on the much larger car market either!
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  • HeartfeltdawnHeartfeltdawn Frets: 11052
    quarky said:
    Sorry, can't get to the FT article. There is a Washington Post one here though, which has some interesting stats.


    It does look like the US faces more higher-tariffs imposed on their products that the EU.

    And they face substantial non-tariff barriers to trade too.

    Which is what I said. It isn't perfectly equalised. But it's not disgustingly distorted as Trump would have you believe. As the hidden FT article said: 

    "US tariffs are indeed slightly lower than those of the EU and Canada but the difference is marginal. WTO statistics show that the EU’s average trade-weighted tariff was 3 per cent in 2015, the latest year for which this figure was available. Canada’s average trade-weighted tariff was 3.1 per cent, compared with 2.4 per cent for the US. The difference is even smaller when it comes to the tariffs that US exporters actually paid in 2015 — a weighted average of 1.4 per cent on non-agricultural goods sold in the EU, and 2.1 per cent on non-agricultural exports to Canada. EU exporters to the US paid an average weighted tariff of 1.6 per cent; Canadian exporters 1.3 per cent."

    ....

    "Mr Posen said the one area where Mr Trump had “a bit of a point” was in non-tariff barriers. The US had in the past been relatively transparent, while some of its trade partners had used regulation to shelter their own producers. Yet while this may be true at federal level, US states impose many more barriers.

    There is also a big exception, in the form of the “Buy American” laws that shut foreign companies out of US government procurement. Mr Trump’s biggest gripe, of course, is the sheer size of the US trade deficit. But Gabriel Felbermayr, a trade expert at Germany’s IFO Institute, noted that Mr Trump “talks about the US deficit in goods, but forgets to mention that the US is running a massive surplus against the EU in services and corporate profits”. Mr Wolff said Mr Trump’s fundamental mistake was to assume that the US trade deficit was a function of tariffs. “The main driver of the trade balance is domestic behaviour on savings and investment”, he said. He added that the president’s recent tax cuts gave “a huge stimulus to the consumer — that will increase it”."

    So focusing on tariffs alone is futzing it. 

    https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-01-25/protectionism-can-t-fix-trade-imbalances

    Dairy has come under the spotlight. Canada with its supply management situation does have high tariffs on dairy from the US, 270%. But that doesn't tell the whole story:

    "But trade policy experts say Canada’s trade relationship with the U.S. is key to our domestic economy. Canada is the top U.S. export market, with the country buying more than $340 billion in American goods and services in 2017, according to data from the U.S. Trade Representative. And, overall, the U.S. has an $8.4 billion surplus with Canada. The U.S. has a significant deficit if only goods are included due to the service-sector-centered nature of the U.S. economy.

    Protective measures like Canada’s dairy tariff are common around the world. The U.S. uses tariffs to protect a variety of industries from a 350% tariff on tobacco to more 160% on shelled peanuts. In other cases, such as sugar, the U.S. has crafted a complex program to protect domestic industry by limiting imports."

    The USA has an average levy of 2.8% on all goods. Canada is 2.4%. People can guess for whether the EU ir higher or lower in true Play Your Cards Right tradition. 

    https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/TM.TAX.MRCH.SM.AR.ZS?end=2016&start=2016&view=bar&year_high_desc=false

    Much like Brexit, this feels like trying to reduce a vastly complex issue down to a few simple elements. 
    I make Jeremy Paxman look like Fingermouse. 
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  • quarkyquarky Frets: 2243


    Which is what I said. It isn't perfectly equalised. But it's not disgustingly distorted as Trump would have you believe. 
    But then that is Trump in a nutshell isn't it. He certainly isn't afraid of going in all guns blazing, even figuratively.
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  • HAL9000HAL9000 Frets: 3862
    edited June 11
    I see Trump has now extended this to how much more money than Europe that the US pays to NATO - basically saying that the US is paying for Europe's defence. Now, whilst this may be true, surely the real reason for the US expenditure was so that Europe, and especially Germany, would act as a buffer and first line of defence against the Soviet Bloc and Warsaw pact countries. NATO was more about protecting the US agsinst Soviet aggression and communism than about the defence of Europe.
    It might look like I'm listening to you, but in my head I'm playing my guitar.
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  • quarkyquarky Frets: 2243
    That doesn't mean European nations shouldn't pull their weight though, especially as the EU economy as a whole is larger than the US!
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  • JezWyndJezWynd Frets: 2267
    It boils down to USA having 25% of the worlds wealth but it's still not enough to buy all the toys they have to have to make life worthwhile. If trump wanted to address the real elephant in the room he'd try and iron out the gross distortions in wealth of rich vs poor in the US (fat chance of that).

    US corporations moved their operations overseas of their volition, no-one forced them (apart from the 'duty to our shareholdes' spiel, which is disingenuous bullshit, but we've lived with it for so long...).

    The Chinese model for economic development is undoubtedly 'unfair' but trashing european metals and Canadian farmers is no way to go about resolving it.

    As I understand it, some of trump's 'facts and figures' factor in VAT as a tariff. At which point you come up against the us model vs the european model of society and the services and duties it owes it's citizens.

    If you listen exclusively to trump and fox news and accept his statements as fact, you  begin to see how a large segment of the us population is duped. Trump's genius is to take a nugget of truth and then weave a whole fabric of gross distortions from it. That and his mesmeric powers, which seem able to turn anyone's brain to s**t if they spend any time in his orbit.

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  • ewalewal Frets: 701
    Trump walks away, tears up agreements and breaks relationships. He cannot countenance any 'deal' where he and his wannabe oligarch chums are not the principal beneficiaries. He does not seem capable of actually coming up with or sponsoring any solutions. Like an over-grown toddler - he just breaks things. What a shit businessman - no wonder he needed all that Russian investment to stay afloat.
    The Scrambler-EE Walk soundcloud experience
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  • HeartfeltdawnHeartfeltdawn Frets: 11052
    quarky said:
    That doesn't mean European nations shouldn't pull their weight though, especially as the EU economy as a whole is larger than the US!

    The 2% target was discussed in 2014 with the target for all nations to reach 2% by 2024. It is a guideline, not an agreement. When Trump talked of Germany owing money for NATO, it was more of the same: pump out a lie to get your support going and to get the headlines moving, ignore some basic inaccuracies. 

    The EU is the second largest in the world. Perhaps some respect for that economy is needed from Mr Trump. Unless of course he has a vested interest in bring the EU economy down a peg or two...
    I make Jeremy Paxman look like Fingermouse. 
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  • quarkyquarky Frets: 2243
    Heartfeltdawn said:
    The 2% target was discussed in 2014 with the target for all nations to reach 2% by 2024. It is a guideline, not an agreement. When Trump talked of Germany owing money for NATO, it was more of the same: pump out a lie to get your support going and to get the headlines moving, ignore some basic inaccuracies. 

    The EU is the second largest in the world. Perhaps some respect for that economy is needed from Mr Trump. Unless of course he has a vested interest in bring the EU economy down a peg or two...

    I don't think he needs too. I think we all know that it is the threat of the US that does a lot more towards discouraging further Russian action in the East. So many states in the EU are benefiting from US protection, but not paying their own share. The US spends probably double (as a % of GDP) what some of the larger EU states pay, which is hardly fair.
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  • HAL9000HAL9000 Frets: 3862
    quarky said:
    That doesn't mean European nations shouldn't pull their weight though, especially as the EU economy as a whole is larger than the US!

    The 2% target was discussed in 2014 with the target for all nations to reach 2% by 2024. It is a guideline, not an agreement. When Trump talked of Germany owing money for NATO, it was more of the same: pump out a lie to get your support going and to get the headlines moving, ignore some basic inaccuracies. 

    The EU is the second largest in the world. Perhaps some respect for that economy is needed from Mr Trump. Unless of course he has a vested interest in bring the EU economy down a peg or two...
    Probably expects Europe to put its hand in its pocket to buy US manufactured weapons. MAGA!
    It might look like I'm listening to you, but in my head I'm playing my guitar.
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  • Axe_meisterAxe_meister Frets: 2153
    Trump seems to forget the Europe and the rest of the world could kill the US economy in one fell swoop.
    Start buying oil in Euros. 
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  • ICBMICBM Frets: 31628
    edited June 11

    Start buying selling oil in Euros. 
    Saddam, Gaddafi and Assad did that... and now so has Iran. Do you sense a pattern there?
    "Take these three items, some WD-40, a vise grip, and a roll of duct tape. Any man worth his salt can fix almost any problem with this stuff alone."
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  • HeartfeltdawnHeartfeltdawn Frets: 11052
    quarky said:

    I don't think he needs too. I think we all know that it is the threat of the US that does a lot more towards discouraging further Russian action in the East. 

    How threatened are the Russians going to be when the Commander in Chief backed with his new Italian friends want Russia back in the G8?


    I make Jeremy Paxman look like Fingermouse. 
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  • quarkyquarky Frets: 2243
    edited June 11
    quarky said:

    I don't think he needs too. I think we all know that it is the threat of the US that does a lot more towards discouraging further Russian action in the East. 

    How threatened are the Russians going to be when the Commander in Chief backed with his new Italian friends want Russia back in the G8?

    I am sure you are kidding, but trying to bring the Russians back to the international fold is not mutually exclusive with having the military to wipe them off the map, and a leader who acts crazy enough to put that doubt in people's mind.
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  • JezWyndJezWynd Frets: 2267
    Just when you thought it couldn't get any more depressing, along comes Yanis...


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  • guitars4youguitars4you Frets: 4207
    ICBM said:

    Start buying selling oil in Euros. 
    Saddam, Gaddafi and Assad did that... and now so has Iran. Do you sense a pattern there?
    Exactly - Effectively Nixon + the Saud Family + Opec agreed all oil to be sold in $'s back in the early 70's when Nixon disbanded the gold standard  - Petro dollar became the nick name - And low and hold any nation that steps out of line regards selling oil in anything other than $ - The USA won't say this as such, instead they will concoct a conflict to suit - All allegedly of course
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  • HeartfeltdawnHeartfeltdawn Frets: 11052
    quarky said:
    quarky said:

    I don't think he needs too. I think we all know that it is the threat of the US that does a lot more towards discouraging further Russian action in the East. 

    How threatened are the Russians going to be when the Commander in Chief backed with his new Italian friends want Russia back in the G8?

    I am sure you are kidding, but trying to bring the Russians back to the international fold is not mutually exclusive with having the military to wipe them off the map, and a leader who acts crazy enough to put that doubt in people's mind.

    I take your point on the military. Whether Trump is that crazy is questionable. 

    I am aware of the idea that it is better to have your enemies close to hand but it is a somewhat ridiculous situation when we've just had a G7 summit where Trump batted for Russia and the country most publicly shat upon Canada. 

    There are clear reasons why they weren't in the international fold. Just as there were clear reasons given by the US for sanctions against Iran. The rationale for bringing them back is limited in my opinion. 


    I make Jeremy Paxman look like Fingermouse. 
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  • quarkyquarky Frets: 2243
    edited June 11
    I don't really get Trump's comments about Canada either. I suspect it is a case of trying to "mark his territory" and show who is the boss more than anything. I have come across new several managers who go in trying to look like a cunt, and *then* try and compromise their way through things. Maybe that is the Trump school of management.
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  • guitars4youguitars4you Frets: 4207
    quarky said:
    I don't really get Trump's comments about Canada either. I suspect it is a case of trying to "mark his territory" and show who is the boss more than anything. I have come across new several managers who go in trying to look like a cunt, and *then* try and compromise their way through things. Maybe that is the Trump school of management.
    I think a big issue with Trump is that he has ran his own company on the basis of its me and I'm in charge - Do as I say and steam roller any opposition in a very dictatorial manner - Yet in politics it needs far more give and take and certainly more diplomacy - that doesn't mean you have to be soft - But his approach at the recent G7 meeting sounds more like his own business boardroom, than a respectful agenda that requires mutual adjustments to current issues 
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  • ChalkyChalky Frets: 5349
    One of my kin was involved in negotiations for "military participation" by EU members and it was a bloody farce. Apart from the French who want to go fighting in their old empire countries, and the UK and our old pals the Dutch, the rest of Europe wants to contribute the minimum they can get away with. 

    Unlike the US, there are very few votes to be had in Europe for increased military spending.  Europe absolutely relies on the US to protect it.
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  • NiteflyNitefly Frets: 2062
    JezWynd said:
    Just when you thought it couldn't get any more depressing, along comes Yanis...



    @JezWynd - I found that very interesting.

    Grown most uncommonly fat!
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  • NiteflyNitefly Frets: 2062
    quarky said:
    I don't really get Trump's comments about Canada either. I suspect it is a case of trying to "mark his territory" and show who is the boss more than anything. I have come across new several managers who go in trying to look like a cunt, and *then* try and compromise their way through things. Maybe that is the Trump school of management.
    I think a big issue with Trump is that he has ran his own company on the basis of its me and I'm in charge - Do as I say and steam roller any opposition in a very dictatorial manner - Yet in politics it needs far more give and take and certainly more diplomacy - that doesn't mean you have to be soft - But his approach at the recent G7 meeting sounds more like his own business boardroom, than a respectful agenda that requires mutual adjustments to current issues 

    I don't think he sees it that way - he thinks he's clever and can cut through all that red tape and "diplomacy" .  Everyone else is playing by the old "diplomatic" rules, he's saying "That's irrelevant nowadays, I'm going to give it to you straight - these are the new rules".

    Grown most uncommonly fat!
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  • HAL9000HAL9000 Frets: 3862
    ICBM said:

    Start buying selling oil in Euros. 
    Saddam, Gaddafi and Assad did that... and now so has Iran. Do you sense a pattern there?
    Exactly - Effectively Nixon + the Saud Family + Opec agreed all oil to be sold in $'s back in the early 70's when Nixon disbanded the gold standard  - Petro dollar became the nick name - And low and hold any nation that steps out of line regards selling oil in anything other than $ - The USA won't say this as such, instead they will concoct a conflict to suit - All allegedly of course
    I'm sure I'm being thick here, but what difference does it make whether oil is sold in dollars, euros, groats, etc?
    It might look like I'm listening to you, but in my head I'm playing my guitar.
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  • JezWyndJezWynd Frets: 2267
    Nitefly said:
    quarky said:
    I don't really get Trump's comments about Canada either. I suspect it is a case of trying to "mark his territory" and show who is the boss more than anything. I have come across new several managers who go in trying to look like a cunt, and *then* try and compromise their way through things. Maybe that is the Trump school of management.
    I think a big issue with Trump is that he has ran his own company on the basis of its me and I'm in charge - Do as I say and steam roller any opposition in a very dictatorial manner - Yet in politics it needs far more give and take and certainly more diplomacy - that doesn't mean you have to be soft - But his approach at the recent G7 meeting sounds more like his own business boardroom, than a respectful agenda that requires mutual adjustments to current issues 

    I don't think he sees it that way - he thinks he's clever and can cut through all that red tape and "diplomacy" .  Everyone else is playing by the old "diplomatic" rules, he's saying "That's irrelevant nowadays, I'm going to give it to you straight - these are the new rules".

    But does he have to behave so piggishly to achieve it? Trump has some good ideas but his methods in trying to achieve them throws them and him in such a bad light. It's enabling a lot of other people to give free range to their homophobic/racist/imperialist tendencies, and at heart it's all about his ego which throws everything in doubt.

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