Trump says Europe will have to start paying its way

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  • quarkyquarky Frets: 2280
    edited June 12
    HAL9000 said:

    I'm sure I'm being thick here, but what difference does it make whether oil is sold in dollars, euros, groats, etc?
    In short, if countries need stacks of dollars to buy oil, that pushes up demand for the USD, which means the US can print/spend more, without suffering some of the same draw backs that would affect other currencies with similar spending patterns. The article written by Yannis Varoufakis (linked by @JezWynd ) sheds some light on the issue of US spending. They are slashing taxes, and, increasing spending. 

    No matter what politicians tell you at election time, that does not work apart from in the short term. 

    The US is getting away with it simply because the demand for the dollar won't tank like it would for the Euro, Pound, Ruble, etc. because it is effectively the worlds reserve currency because of the historical significance for oil. For decades, tin-foil hatters have been saying that the shift from the dollar (and a resulting economic collapse) is imminent, while it is bound to happen at some point, it isn't a simple task.

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  • FretwiredFretwired Frets: 16962
    The thing is, there is not much I've seen recently that says made in the USA especially in the consumer goods market. Even the big US brands make their stuff in the middle East and ship direct so there will be little impact of any Tarrifs, accepts Harlys Bourbon and Jeans.
    These will hit Trump where it hurts, his core voters.
    His Tarrifs (Steel/Aluminium/German cars) will however hit the US public in the pocket. There is a reason they buy so much from us. It is all higher quality.
    Certainly with cars I can't think of any US cars that compete in the same class as BMW/Merc/Audi.

    Trump voters buy US made cars. BMW/Merc and Jag sell low volumes. It won't hurt BMW much as their most popular range is made in a US factory for the US market.

    And Jaguar and Land Rover are looking at opening factories in the USA as the company cuts back in the UK.
    My pump-action drivel gun is smoking hot today!
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  • guitars4youguitars4you Frets: 4547
    HAL9000 said:
    ICBM said:

    Start buying selling oil in Euros. 
    Saddam, Gaddafi and Assad did that... and now so has Iran. Do you sense a pattern there?
    Exactly - Effectively Nixon + the Saud Family + Opec agreed all oil to be sold in $'s back in the early 70's when Nixon disbanded the gold standard  - Petro dollar became the nick name - And low and hold any nation that steps out of line regards selling oil in anything other than $ - The USA won't say this as such, instead they will concoct a conflict to suit - All allegedly of course
    I'm sure I'm being thick here, but what difference does it make whether oil is sold in dollars, euros, groats, etc?
    probably to big a topic to be covered with one reply, but not a thick question to ask - try this for some insight https://www.quora.com/Why-is-oil-priced-and-traded-in-U-S-dollars

    then type into google 'why is oil sold in dollars' and pick a couple of threads for additional info
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  • FretwiredFretwired Frets: 16962
    HAL9000 said:
    ICBM said:

    Start buying selling oil in Euros. 
    Saddam, Gaddafi and Assad did that... and now so has Iran. Do you sense a pattern there?
    Exactly - Effectively Nixon + the Saud Family + Opec agreed all oil to be sold in $'s back in the early 70's when Nixon disbanded the gold standard  - Petro dollar became the nick name - And low and hold any nation that steps out of line regards selling oil in anything other than $ - The USA won't say this as such, instead they will concoct a conflict to suit - All allegedly of course
    I'm sure I'm being thick here, but what difference does it make whether oil is sold in dollars, euros, groats, etc?
    probably to big a topic to be covered with one reply, but not a thick question to ask - try this for some insight https://www.quora.com/Why-is-oil-priced-and-traded-in-U-S-dollars

    then type into google 'why is oil sold in dollars' and pick a couple of threads for additional info
    The US dollar has the world's recognised reserve currency since the end of WW2. That's why oil is priced in US dollars.
    My pump-action drivel gun is smoking hot today!
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  • Axe_meisterAxe_meister Frets: 2210
    Fretwired said:
    The thing is, there is not much I've seen recently that says made in the USA especially in the consumer goods market. Even the big US brands make their stuff in the middle East and ship direct so there will be little impact of any Tarrifs, accepts Harlys Bourbon and Jeans.
    These will hit Trump where it hurts, his core voters.
    His Tarrifs (Steel/Aluminium/German cars) will however hit the US public in the pocket. There is a reason they buy so much from us. It is all higher quality.
    Certainly with cars I can't think of any US cars that compete in the same class as BMW/Merc/Audi.

    Trump voters buy US made cars. BMW/Merc and Jag sell low volumes. It won't hurt BMW much as their most popular range is made in a US factory for the US market.

    And Jaguar and Land Rover are looking at opening factories in the USA as the company cuts back in the UK.
    I've just spent a week in Florida. I would not say low volumes.
    There where essentially three types if car.
    US made SUVs and Trucks, generic Toyottas and Hondas and German cars and not just the odd one.
    So I'd it's a big market. I had numerous conversations with cab drivers who were complaining of the lack of US alternatives and tarrifs will hurt the US citizen.
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  • HeartfeltdawnHeartfeltdawn Frets: 11476
    JezWynd said:
    Nitefly said:

    I don't think he sees it that way - he thinks he's clever and can cut through all that red tape and "diplomacy" .  Everyone else is playing by the old "diplomatic" rules, he's saying "That's irrelevant nowadays, I'm going to give it to you straight - these are the new rules".

    But does he have to behave so piggishly to achieve it? Trump has some good ideas but his methods in trying to achieve them throws them and him in such a bad light. It's enabling a lot of other people to give free range to their homophobic/racist/imperialist tendencies, and at heart it's all about his ego which throws everything in doubt.



    If Trump believes that it is more likely that Russia and North Korea may become more aligned to Western values through trade and economic ties, then you could build a case for that (although one might wager that Nixon never foresaw China becoming quite the power that it is). 

    However the oleaginous spew delivered about a North Korean leader associated with gulags, murders, and punishing citizens clashes horrifically with the insults and threats dished out to Canada recently. 
    Clarity over quantity.  
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  • FreebirdFreebird Frets: 959
    edited June 12
    A view from the South China Morning Post.

    "Three reasons not to blame Trump when the global ‘free’ trade order collapses"

    http://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/united-states/article/2150329/three-reasons-not-blame-trump-when-global-free
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  • quarkyquarky Frets: 2280
    Freebird said:
    A view from the South China Morning Post.

    "Three reasons not to blame Trump when the global ‘free’ trade order collapses"

    http://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/united-states/article/2150329/three-reasons-not-blame-trump-when-global-free
    That is a scary article.
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  • HeartfeltdawnHeartfeltdawn Frets: 11476
    Xie has good form on previous predictions. But one has to wonder whether his Austrian school leanings mean that his view of mercantilism within the article is more about his ideological beliefs than reality. Still, good to read. 

    On the car tariffs to the EU... 

    "Trump likes to find the exception to the rule to prove his point that the U.S. is getting ripped off by long-time allies and trading partners. For example, the president is obsessed with tariffs on imported passenger cars: the U.S.’s 2.5% tariff versus the EU’s 10%.

    Those numbers aren’t an accurate reflection of the rates actually paid, according to Christine McDaniel, senior research fellow at George Mason University’s Mercatus Center. “Last year, only 15% of U.S. autos shipped to the EU were subject to the 10% tariff because the EU exempts U.S. cars that use European parts.”


    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/trump-gets-it-backwards-when-he-says-the-us-is-a-piggy-bank-that-everybodys-robbing-2018-06-12

    It thus shows the difficulty of making statements about tariffs. They're bloody complex. They take time to dismantle and write about and you can't narrow them down to wiffly soundbites. Reading tariff information is not thrilling but you do find answers. 





    Clarity over quantity.  
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  • JezWyndJezWynd Frets: 2420
    Reading tariff information is not thrilling but you do find answers.

    Which neatly sums up why trump is completely lacking in vision on the issue. My own knowledge of tariffs is v sketchy but I get the impression that trump's convictions date back twenty or thirty years, when the world was a much simpler place without the complex cross resourcing that goes on now. Trump seems genuinely surprised at the strength of the pushback from some countries. Could it be that China thinks 'We planned to have this fight in 5 years time but let's just deal with it now'?

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  • ICBMICBM Frets: 32822
    JezWynd said:
    Reading tariff information is not thrilling but you do find answers.

    Which neatly sums up why trump is completely lacking in vision on the issue. My own knowledge of tariffs is v sketchy but I get the impression that trump's convictions date back twenty or thirty years, when the world was a much simpler place without the complex cross resourcing that goes on now. Trump seems genuinely surprised at the strength of the pushback from some countries. Could it be that China thinks 'We planned to have this fight in 5 years time but let's just deal with it now'?
    I've said this before, but my guess is that all Trump's policies will achieve is China overtaking the US as the world's largest economy within his presidency rather than after it.
    "Take these three items, some WD-40, a vise grip, and a roll of duct tape. Any man worth his salt can fix almost any problem with this stuff alone."
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  • quarkyquarky Frets: 2280
    edited June 18
    But you could equally (or potentially, I don't know all the details so just speculating) argue that the EU exemption for cars assembled in the US out of parts manufactured in the EU, is actually EU protectionism too. 
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  • FreebirdFreebird Frets: 959
    edited June 21
  • FreebirdFreebird Frets: 959
    edited June 21
    Germany’s Largest Auto Makers Back Abolition of EU-U.S. Car Import Tariffs

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/germanys-largest-auto-makers-back-abolition-of-eu-u-s-car-import-tariffs-1529492027
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  • FreebirdFreebird Frets: 959
    edited June 21
    The USA seem to be benefitting from a strong leader who doesn't back down. He's called their bluff, and is now in the process getting what he wants. Contrast these actions with Theresa May's approach to dealing with the EU.
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  • HeartfeltdawnHeartfeltdawn Frets: 11476
    Freebird said:
    Germany’s Largest Auto Makers Back Abolition of EU-U.S. Car Import Tariffs

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/germanys-largest-auto-makers-back-abolition-of-eu-u-s-car-import-tariffs-1529492027

    Freebird said:
    The USA seem to be benefitting from a strong leader who doesn't back down. He's called their bluff, and is now in the process getting what he wants. Contrast these actions with Theresa May's approach to dealing with the EU.
    Did you read all of the article? I couldn't as it's paywalled. 

    So try this:

    https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/germanys-largest-automakers-back-abolition-of-eu-u-s-car-import-tariffs

    "That would mean scrapping the EU's 10% tax on auto imports from the U.S. and other countries and the 2.5% duty on auto imports in the U.S., according to Dow Jones.

    In return, the Europeans want President Trump's threat of imposing a 25% border tax on European auto imports off the table.

    ................

    The Europeans reportedly also want a 25% U.S. tax on imports of light trucks--pickup trucks, sport-utility vehicles, and big vans--scrapped."

    So he's not actually in the process of getting what he wants at all, given that for these changes to happen the EU would have to persuade Member States to adopt this type of free trade model. If anything given the tariffs as they are right now, I'd say it's rather equal. But it wouldn't be like the WSJ to not give Trump the trumpet chorus before he's done something... 

    Clarity over quantity.  
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  • FreebirdFreebird Frets: 959
    edited June 21
    The way I read it is America are just looking for fair trade deals that benefit both sides, as opposed to the current arrangements, which they deem to be unfair. I seem to recall a few countries were getting a bit cute at the G7 meeting, thinking that the US would back down.
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  • FretwiredFretwired Frets: 16962
    Freebird said:
    The USA seem to be benefitting from a strong leader who doesn't back down. He's called their bluff, and is now in the process getting what he wants. Contrast these actions with Theresa May's approach to dealing with the EU.
    Yep .. Trump wins again as NATO members pledge to spend $33 billion more on defence .. he may have a big mouth but he seems to get things done.
    My pump-action drivel gun is smoking hot today!
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  • HeartfeltdawnHeartfeltdawn Frets: 11476
    Is it an additional $33 billion or accelerating what was agreed at the 2014 summit? 
    Clarity over quantity.  
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  • HeartfeltdawnHeartfeltdawn Frets: 11476
    Clarity over quantity.  
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  • ewalewal Frets: 740
    And in to the bargain, he throws a session meant to discuss Ukraine and Georgia joining NATO in to disarray.... Is this by accident or by (Russia's) design?
    The Scrambler-EE Walk soundcloud experience
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  • DanchiDanchi Frets: 24
    I know sweet F.A. so please bear that in mind but, the EU is an economic super power and perhaps one way for it to achieve political 'super powerness' is to become a real military force. Russia is seen as a potential threat and geographically, that threat is to Europe more than the USA. 
    Perhaps the EU should move away from NATO and form it's own member-state-only alliance, allow Germany to re-arm and start planning to become a global super power itself. Remove USA military bases and military cooperation from EU member states. If the EU had the military power it could dominate the the Suez canal from the Med side, reclaim Kaliningrad. It would huge and monopolised trade access to the Atlantic, the India Ocean.
    It could threaten Chinese interests in Africa and gain pole position on the battle for rare and valuable resources there. Maybe even reduce the burden of needing Russian gas (the Algerian pipeline already feeds Iberia, i think).
    If the core EU members could solidify their common goals they could federalise and become something truly powerful and wealthy.
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  • ewalewal Frets: 740
    Somewhat ironically given Trump's apparent disregard for NATO and the EU, I think the US would be very quick to block any move by Europe to look after their own defence affairs. Everything the US does geopolitically is designed to keep them in charge.
    The Scrambler-EE Walk soundcloud experience
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  • DanchiDanchi Frets: 24
    The EU has economic growth. The US won't invade the EU, too costly financially and will more then likely lose the fight anyway. The only way they could block is by creating discord (which has worked very well up to now). However, Trump might have a polarising effect. The EU could do it if it had the will. Getting the disparate members to agree on core principles and move forward is it's problem. 
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  • quarkyquarky Frets: 2280
    edited July 12
    Danchi said:
    I know sweet F.A. so please bear that in mind but, the EU is an economic super power and perhaps one way for it to achieve political 'super powerness' is to become a real military force. Russia is seen as a potential threat and geographically, that threat is to Europe more than the USA. 
    Perhaps the EU should move away from NATO and form it's own member-state-only alliance, allow Germany to re-arm and start planning to become a global super power itself. Remove USA military bases and military cooperation from EU member states. If the EU had the military power it could dominate the the Suez canal from the Med side, reclaim Kaliningrad. It would huge and monopolised trade access to the Atlantic, the India Ocean.
    It could threaten Chinese interests in Africa and gain pole position on the battle for rare and valuable resources there. Maybe even reduce the burden of needing Russian gas (the Algerian pipeline already feeds Iberia, i think).
    If the core EU members could solidify their common goals they could federalise and become something truly powerful and wealthy.
    It would never happen. Germany could re-arm anytime they wanted. There is just no appetite for it.

    And there is no appetite in the EU for flexing muscles either. The EU response to what happened in the Ukraine was lethargic. Just a fall back on "sanctions" is all we can expect from continental Europe these days.

    The US at least is wiling to look after its own interests.
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  • ICBMICBM Frets: 32822
    Fretwired said:

    Trump wins again as NATO members pledge to spend $33 billion more on defence .. he may have a big mouth but he seems to get things done.
    Is it an additional $33 billion or accelerating what was agreed at the 2014 summit? 
    Yes, both can be true. If the members even raise defence spending *to* the previous 2% target it will be a significant increase, and that makes my first guess in the other thread probably the correct one.

    Like you I don't think Trump is stupid. I think he's a bully who is quite aware of how to get his own way.
    "Take these three items, some WD-40, a vise grip, and a roll of duct tape. Any man worth his salt can fix almost any problem with this stuff alone."
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  • quarkyquarky Frets: 2280
    edited July 12
    Was Junker drunk again?



    Imagine the reaction if that was an American or a British leader?
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  • ChalkyChalky Frets: 5661
    edited July 12
    quarky said:
    Danchi said:
    I know sweet F.A. so please bear that in mind but, the EU is an economic super power and perhaps one way for it to achieve political 'super powerness' is to become a real military force. Russia is seen as a potential threat and geographically, that threat is to Europe more than the USA. 
    Perhaps the EU should move away from NATO and form it's own member-state-only alliance, allow Germany to re-arm and start planning to become a global super power itself. Remove USA military bases and military cooperation from EU member states. If the EU had the military power it could dominate the the Suez canal from the Med side, reclaim Kaliningrad. It would huge and monopolised trade access to the Atlantic, the India Ocean.
    It could threaten Chinese interests in Africa and gain pole position on the battle for rare and valuable resources there. Maybe even reduce the burden of needing Russian gas (the Algerian pipeline already feeds Iberia, i think).
    If the core EU members could solidify their common goals they could federalise and become something truly powerful and wealthy.
    It would never happen. Germany could re-arm anytime they wanted. There is just no appetite for it.

    And there is no appetite in the EU for flexing muscles either. The EU response to what happened in the Ukraine was lethargic. Just a fall back on "sanctions" is all we can expect from continental Europe these days.

    The US at least is wiling to look after its own interests.
    The EU has no common or shared military objectives.  For example, Germany wants to spend fourpence on defence, France wants to continue its military interventions into its former colonies as it sees fit (irrespective of what the EU wants), the Italians and Spanish can't afford anything, and the Dutch and British were the voices of reason.  We're no longer invited to the meetings so the Dutch are on their own and not getting far.  But they have lots of regular meetings to discuss minor changes to assessments of the terms of reference to be written for the frameworks in which draft proposals for policy documents may potentially be considered!
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  • DanchiDanchi Frets: 24
    What would mainland Europe do if the USA ceased all financing of NATO and withdrew their army and airforce bases?
    Genuine question.
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  • ChalkyChalky Frets: 5661
    Danchi said:
    What would mainland Europe do if the USA ceased all financing of NATO and withdrew their army and airforce bases?
    Genuine question.
    Hope no one notices?

    NATO is an alliance among nations to ensure that blah blah blah.....

    No, NATO is really a way of the US recouping some costs in providing protection for Europe.

    Another way to view it is that its an insurance pot where each nation pays in its annual premiums in the belief that if it is ever attacked, the insurance will 'pay out' and save that nation's sorry ass.  In truth, payout is controlled by the US as only the US has the military strength of a size necessary to make a difference.

    This is why equating the EU president's role in NATO with the US president's role in NATO is stupid.  The US decides what NATO does and doesn't do, and if it decides not to 'pay out' and take action, then the other nations' leaders wring their hands and spout rhetoric, but otherwise do buggerall.




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