Brexit to be triggered tomorrow - what if the severance deal is a bad one for the UK?

Heartfeltdawn

Fuck knows what conclusion she'd reach based on your username then, sugartits. 

Clarky

exocet said:

vale said:

https://s23.postimg.org/qrrpfu3e3/brexit_bins.jpg

https://twitter.com/Anna_Mazz/status/847087680727007232

He seems like a nice chap?

http://www.crewechronicle.co.uk/news/local-news/cheshire-east-councillor-brian-silvester-5600229

Pretty sure he had the Union Jack the right way up though?

and fastened to garbage…
prophecy??

Clarky

fields5069 said:

Clarky said:

bwets said:

I am not happy that an unelected leader is negotiating something so important. She has no track record as PM. No one has voted for any kind of manifesto with regards to a new deal with the EU. I would have liked a general election before Article 50 was triggered.

but all the leavers keep ramming down the remoaners throats that democracy spoke so get over it…

this continues to get funnier.. lmao

Er, except it didn't. Electing a government is a democratic process, but then if that government decides to invoke a practice from a different system of rule, does that stay democratic? It was ochlocratic, and something spelled like that can never succeed.

I reckon there's so much more funny to come over the next two years..
apart from the bit where the people that end up paying for all this is ordinary folks like us...

Fretwired

Clarky said:

fields5069 said:

Clarky said:

bwets said:

I am not happy that an unelected leader is negotiating something so important. She has no track record as PM. No one has voted for any kind of manifesto with regards to a new deal with the EU. I would have liked a general election before Article 50 was triggered.

but all the leavers keep ramming down the remoaners throats that democracy spoke so get over it…

this continues to get funnier.. lmao

Er, except it didn't. Electing a government is a democratic process, but then if that government decides to invoke a practice from a different system of rule, does that stay democratic? It was ochlocratic, and something spelled like that can never succeed.

I reckon there's so much more funny to come over the next two years..
apart from the bit where the people that end up paying for all this is ordinary folks like us...

Funny!

ToneControl

digitalscream said:

Snap said:

The single market is good, of course it is, 500 million people. But.....outside of the EU we then have the ability to individually negotiate with some huge and growing economies: USA 300 million +, China - 1.4Bn, India 1.3Bn, Brazil 211 million, etc etc.

The problem with this is that we're a net importer by a bigger margin from the EU (£19.5bn imports vs £12.8bn exports) than we are from the rest of the world (£18.6bn imports vs £15.5bn exports). To my understanding, that means - without access to the single market - everything's likely to get even more expensive for us than it already is.

Despite the size of those other markets relative to the EU, we still rely on products and services from the EU more than from the rest of the world. It might be chicken-and-egg, but once we're out our options are only a) more expensive, or b) more disruptive (given our physical distance from the rest of the world relative to our distance from the EU).

* Those figures are from January 2017

the fact we import more from the EU than vv is a strong negotiating point for the UK I think
In the (likely) absence of a deal with the EU, our government with WTO tariffs would charge a tax on imports from the EU
that's tax that then does not need to be raised from UK wages or corporation tax
this would make imports from the EU less attractive, but no extra cash is sent to the EU, extra tax on BMWs could be spent on you favourite: NHS, Schools, whatever
whereas we could import at WTO or zero or whatever from S.Korea, China, Malaysia

The consequential effect in the other direction would be less, since we export less to them, but those in the EU would still pay default EU tariff tax on what they import from the far east

ToneControl

Evilmags said:

The other side of any divorce is a splitting of assets that are mutually owned. The UK has a claim on a lot of EU assets (although what it would do with Spanish motorways I'm not sure) 

free toll passes for Brits!

Clarky

Fretwired said:

Clarky said:

fields5069 said:

Clarky said:

bwets said:

I am not happy that an unelected leader is negotiating something so important. She has no track record as PM. No one has voted for any kind of manifesto with regards to a new deal with the EU. I would have liked a general election before Article 50 was triggered.

but all the leavers keep ramming down the remoaners throats that democracy spoke so get over it…

this continues to get funnier.. lmao

Er, except it didn't. Electing a government is a democratic process, but then if that government decides to invoke a practice from a different system of rule, does that stay democratic? It was ochlocratic, and something spelled like that can never succeed.

I reckon there's so much more funny to come over the next two years..
apart from the bit where the people that end up paying for all this is ordinary folks like us...

Funny!

yes… in so many ways..
like how everyone that wanted this so badly will not end up getting anything like what they thought they'd get..
it looks to me that from all sides, UK and EU, everything will become something less..
more so that if the shock waves of Brexit trigger meaningful reform the UK won't be a part of it..
but then without Brexit the EU would continue getting worse and more bullshitty
and that the poorest areas of the UK that voted out benefitted most from EU handouts..
but when life gets worse for them they will at least still be able to blame immigration, cos that ain't gonna change one bit..

also funny that Cameron took a gamble and lost.. and so will be remembered as being a screw up..
and that Juncker was such an arrogant dick, certain that the UK would remain in the union that he thought it'd be ok to insult the British people with his worthless reforms and so have Cameron go tell the UK what an amazing job he'd done..
and now the EU is going through it's most difficult times ever.. all on Juncker's watch..

a sensible and amicable divorce never happens when there are enormous piles of cash at stake
both sides caused this mess
both sides will make a huge political and economic mess of it
and when it's all done, both sides will come out of it badly
and all the tax payers on both sides of the channel will pick up the tab..

apart from the paying for this mess bit.. it is pretty funny in a black comedy sort of way

Bucket

I remember Year 7 French lessons...

https://scontent-lhr3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/17629773_881959691951741_1998840481882620152_n.png?oh=682aa7ba2170b505a9924165ade16455&oe=59590DF9

Nitefly

I'll tell you what's funny. It's funny how everybody knows that "the government doesn't have a plan".

Because of course the government would be sure to tell everybody what the plan was, only don't tell the other side, ok? Becauseit's a secret.

Clarky

Nitefly said:

I'll tell you what's funny. It's funny how everybody knows that "the government doesn't have a plan".

Because of course the government would be sure to tell everybody what the plan was, only don't tell the other side, ok? Becauseit's a secret.

ahhh… I forgot that bit… yeah that's funny too.. lol..

exocet

ToneControl said

digitalscream said:

Snap said:

The single market is good, of course it is, 500 million people. But.....outside of the EU we then have the ability to individually negotiate with some huge and growing economies: USA 300 million +, China - 1.4Bn, India 1.3Bn, Brazil 211 million, etc etc.

The problem with this is that we're a net importer by a bigger margin from the EU (£19.5bn imports vs £12.8bn exports) than we are from the rest of the world (£18.6bn imports vs £15.5bn exports). To my understanding, that means - without access to the single market - everything's likely to get even more expensive for us than it already is.

Despite the size of those other markets relative to the EU, we still rely on products and services from the EU more than from the rest of the world. It might be chicken-and-egg, but once we're out our options are only a) more expensive, or b) more disruptive (given our physical distance from the rest of the world relative to our distance from the EU).

* Those figures are from January 2017

the fact we import more from the EU than vv is a strong negotiating point for the UK I think
In the (likely) absence of a deal with the EU, our government with WTO tariffs would charge a tax on imports from the EU
that's tax that then does not need to be raised from UK wages or corporation tax
this would make imports from the EU less attractive, but no extra cash is sent to the EU, extra tax on BMWs could be spent on you favourite: NHS, Schools, whatever
whereas we could import at WTO or zero or whatever from S.Korea, China, Malaysia

The consequential effect in the other direction would be less, since we export less to them, but those in the EU would still pay default EU tariff tax on what they import from the far east

The relative trade figures between EU and UK represent a clear division in opinion between the Leave and Remain camps.

Leave state the trade imbalance in the EUs favour as a clear reason why it puts the UK in a strong bargaining position. 

Remain on the other hand focus on the proportionality of the trade ie %GDP. As the EU overall has a much larger GDP than the UK, the impact on the UK of a breakdown in trade is proportionally larger ergo the EU have the upper hand in negotiations. The proportionality view was supported by The Economist and as such formed a key part in my voting decision.

I've yet to see or hear either side acknowledge / agree with the position of the other on this point. Is there any credible analysis / modelling on this subject area? Obviously it's complex because trade covers both physical goods and services. From my simple analysis, we appear to be banking on the Germans and the importance of their Auto industry trade with UK?

TheBigDipper

Nitefly said:

I'll tell you what's funny. It's funny how everybody knows that "the government doesn't have a plan".

Because of course the government would be sure to tell everybody what the plan was, only don't tell the other side, ok? Becauseit's a secret.

I believe the government has a plan and they don't want to discuss it before executing it in their negotiations.

Some say that's because "the plan" won't work as well or deliver the best result for the UK if it becomes common knowledge. There's some truth in that when you're in business negotiation. You don't want the other side to know which points really matter to you and which ones you don't care about so much. 

Some say they don't want to discuss "the plan" because it will deliver idealogical results that only the Conservatives care about, and they don't want the rest of the voting public to know what those results are until it's too late to stop them. 

The trouble is, as it's a secret, we'll never know which it is until it's too late, will we? 

This is why we, the general public, should be able to vote on the deal they end up with before it's signed. At some point, we need to endorse their work (or not) before it is set in stone. 

TheBigDipper

ToneControl said:

<snip>

the fact we import more from the EU than vv is a strong negotiating point for the UK I think
In the (likely) absence of a deal with the EU, our government with WTO tariffs would charge a tax on imports from the EU
that's tax that then does not need to be raised from UK wages or corporation tax
this would make imports from the EU less attractive, but no extra cash is sent to the EU, extra tax on BMWs could be spent on you favourite: NHS, Schools, whatever
whereas we could import at WTO or zero or whatever from S.Korea, China, Malaysia

The consequential effect in the other direction would be less, since we export less to them, but those in the EU would still pay default EU tariff tax on what they import from the far east

Import tax revenue isn't free money. If my 110Euro product (£100) now has a 40% tax on it and costs £140, who do you think finds and pays that extra £40? It doesn't appear out of nowhere. It comes out of the wages of consumers who buy those more expensive goods or the production costs of the companies who can now no longer afford to reinvest as much in UK industry. 

The only thing it might do is increase UK consumption of UK goods, as they will be cheaper than an imported product. Goods we are forced to import, like food and energy, or the raw materials we need to make our home-produced goods will be more expensive, of course. We may not have the money to buy other imports anyway.

We'll see, I guess... 

digitalscream

TheBigDipper said:

The only thing it might do is increase UK consumption of UK goods, as they will be cheaper than an imported product. Goods we are forced to import, like food and energy, or the raw materials we need to make our home-produced goods will be more expensive, of course. We may not have the money to buy other imports anyway.

Not necessarily - the likelihood is that UK goods will just be a bit more expensive than foreign goods, as opposed to much more expensive.

Snap

Gassage said:

Snap said:

Brexit my arse. Who wants to join up?

Can I be Minister for Cornish?

Certainly. You shall be known as Lord Sir General Cornholio, Marquis of Frottsville.

In the sentence "brexit my arse", the question is, is brexit a verb or a noun? Ha!

Kinell, if I am sick to me gizzards of all the EU palaver now, what is it going to be like, day after day after month, after year?? FFS. David Cameron, you've got a lot to answer for you rosy cheeked round faced buffoon.

VimFuego

except cameron can't hear you on account of all our money he's wedged into his ears.

Boromedic

Fretwired said:

In the UK anyone gaining a low paid job in the UK from another EU country qualifies for an expanded range of in work benefits at UK rates paid for by UK taxpayers. It also became established that EU migrants using the EU freedom of movement provision could qualify for unemployment benefits. This has led to wage stagnation as employers know their low wages will be topped up with government handouts and there's a plentiful supply of workers willing to work for slave wages. It was never envisaged that so many low skilled workers would move to places like the UK, Denmark and the Netherlands - even Blair admitted he was wrong.

We could argue into the night about this but this is a red herring and has been proved so by the London School Of Economics:

"So ultimately we cannot know the truth about immigration and its effects from just appealing to anecdotes or theories. We need to look at the evidence.

Luckily, there is a huge amount of research examining the effect of immigration on jobs and wages. The conclusion of this body of work is that the large increase in immigration did not significantly harm the job and wage prospects of British workers.

But most of this research was done on data in the good times before the global financial crisis and the Eurozone crisis. Have things changed since 2008 when the job market got tougher?

If we look at employment rates of the UK-born over the last four decades since the last EU referendum, there is little relationship with EU immigration. Although EU immigration rose during 2008-10 when employment rates fell, immigration also rose in the last five years when employment rates recovered. Similarly, although wage rates were falling in the period 2008-14 when immigration was rising, wages were still going up in the period 2004-08 as well as in the last year. The problem of falling wages was due to the financial crisis and austerity – not to immigration.

What about at the local level? Did places with larger influxes of EU immigrants have worse job outcomes than those with smaller increases? Our latest research finds that in fact there is no relationship between EU immigration and the unemployment rates or wages of those born in the UK."

Direct quote from their web page, which includes further lines to discuss the benefit impact, which is they pay more in local services and taxes than they take from the state, further underlining the argument that the above is false economics. (I take the argument that due to a loophole a number were sending that money home but I suspect this is small fry)

 Even UK born benefit seekers who are the biggest takers will pay most of their benefits back into the economy anyway, the biggest impact on the welfare state is the growing elderly population, 50% at least and a number who have barely contributed much in stamp payments. Are they entitled to the benefits? 

Bottom line is we need that freedom of movement as who is going to look after them all when a lot of British people won't do that job as its low paid with no prospects and awful working hours? The reason their wages are low isn't economic migrants, its the damn business owners profiting from caring for our elderly thanks to the closure of state care homes. We should take a leaf out of some of the more maligned cultures within our society and care for our own instead of sending them into "care" institutions to sell their house out from under them but since the dawn of more neoliberalist attitudes in the last 40 years or so a lot of folk have become way too self centred to care.

Boromedic

Excuse the double old post, I wrote this a few days ago but it's only just been approved by the mods. Ta

Heartfeltdawn

Clarky said:

yes… in so many ways..
like how everyone that wanted this so badly will not end up getting anything like what they thought they'd get..
it looks to me that from all sides, UK and EU, everything will become something less..
more so that if the shock waves of Brexit trigger meaningful reform the UK won't be a part of it..
but then without Brexit the EU would continue getting worse and more bullshitty
and that the poorest areas of the UK that voted out benefitted most from EU handouts..
but when life gets worse for them they will at least still be able to blame immigration, cos that ain't gonna change one bit..

also funny that Cameron took a gamble and lost.. and so will be remembered as being a screw up..
and that Juncker was such an arrogant dick, certain that the UK would remain in the union that he thought it'd be ok to insult the British people with his worthless reforms and so have Cameron go tell the UK what an amazing job he'd done..
and now the EU is going through it's most difficult times ever.. all on Juncker's watch..

a sensible and amicable divorce never happens when there are enormous piles of cash at stake
both sides caused this mess
both sides will make a huge political and economic mess of it
and when it's all done, both sides will come out of it badly
and all the tax payers on both sides of the channel will pick up the tab..

apart from the paying for this mess bit.. it is pretty funny in a black comedy sort of way

We're in an era of failure. 

A leading party helmed by a woman immensely keen on human rights and squishing them who turned out to be the least odious of all the leadership choices. Her Foreign Secretary arguably faced the greatest humiliation of anyone in the referendum fallout. Cameron made mistakes but he can point to two election victories, one outright against the odds.

They face off against an Opposition party generously described as shambolic and more accurately described as possessing all the rigidity of a 112 year old panda with no Viagra prescription. 

Lurking around is a faceless bloke running the party that was in coalition 7 years ago. His party is now so anonymous that 50% of its elected members feature as Pointless answers in the final round of an episode this week. 

Lurking around even further is a bloke who got miffed at his party's only MP for mocking his potential for a peerage. This bloke has never won a Parliamentary election, has spent years picking up an EU cheque for doing not much, and his party now has no Members in Parliament. 

Lots of Remainers are unhappy that we're leaving an organisation full of twunts. 

Lots of Leavers are happy that we're leaving an organisation full of twunts so we can have our own twunts fucking things up instead. 

Fuck it. I'm off down the pub. 

ICBM

Heartfeltdawn said:

Lots of Leavers are happy that we're leaving an organisation full of twunts so we can have our own twunts fucking things up instead.

I'm fast coming to the conclusion that the best thing about leaving the EU is that in a couple of years, no-one will be able to moan about "Brussels", and will have to put the blame where it almost always should have been correctly placed - with our own politicians.