Michel Barnier

ToneControl

dtr said:

Goods in transit have been paid for already - that's why they're in transit.  It's the goods that don't get ordered and never end up in trucks that might cause concern.  25% of EU exports to the UK are the automotive industry, mainly from Germany, whose car companies have around 100 production facilities in the UK, which are here because until now it's been commercially advantageous.  They could all move to the EU and that would be pretty zero sum - the EU would benefit and the UK lose.  Same with the Italian car industry.  After automotive, it's machinery and white goods (some of which is again supply chains for manufacture, which can all relocate), then foodstuffs.  Do we have a plan to grow more food, or are we more likely to struggle to maintain the amount we currently grow because we won't allow migrant workers?

You assume that multinationals that have picked the UK as a production base in the single market are a permanent advantage that we have over the EU, rather than a precarious benefit we have because of the EU, and that's dangerous.  You're treating it like it's a plan rather than a risk.  It isn't a plan.

I don't assume any such thing, I can just see very clearly that the EU is seriously flawed, and I want my kids out of it
Personally, I don't actually care if it causes a reduction in wealth, since the EU looks so doomed. However, I don't see any evidence for that: the Uk is basically backing out of a deal where it subsidises other countries

ToneControl

Evilmags said:

We don't get a huge boost from the EU, as we can't sell services to them. Yet they can sell goods to us. The UK is the 5th largest economy on the planet and a G7 nuclear power. That makes it likely that their will be a large line of countries wishing to do trade deals, all of whom have higher projected growth rates than the EU. Try living in the EU and you quickly realise how one sided things are. You can't buy cars or rent flats in many countries unless you are a resident with a job and tax number. 

Some UK nationals deeply want to believe that the UK is a has-been low-ranking state that the EU has been propping up for the last 40 years. It's  shame they are not counting their blessings.
I'm not really sure what drives this sentiment.

ToneControl

It's hard to comprehend all perspectives on this for me: I said this before

just imagine if in the 70s the USA created a superstate with all the states in north and south America: any state could veto new laws or FTAs, free movement was implemented, a common currency drove most southern american states to extreme poverty.

Then the US decides to go independent again

would we hear "but the USA does lots of trade with south America and mexico, we're doomed"
or "how will we ever negotiate trade deals of our own, the superstate was uniquely capable of such a feat"
"Mexico's GDP  grew by 0.3% in the last 3 months, that proves we're doomed, and will soon be much poorer"

I'm not sure if people are awake:

• the UK subsidises most of the states in the EU 
• the UK imports much more from the EU than we export to it
• the UK economy has grown way more than the rest of the EU since 2008
• the UK is the 5th largest economy on the planet
• much of the EU is in a severe depression

yet many believe that the UK is doomed outside the EU
this seems extremely illogical to me

Chalky

ToneControl said:

It's hard to comprehend all perspectives on this for me: I said this before

just imagine if in the 70s the USA created a superstate with all the states in north and south America: any state could veto new laws or FTAs, free movement was implemented, a common currency drove most southern american states to extreme poverty.

Then the US decides to go independent again

would we hear "but the USA does lots of trade with south America and mexico, we're doomed"
or "how will we ever negotiate trade deals of our own, the superstate was uniquely capable of such a feat"
"Mexico's GDP  grew by 0.3% in the last 3 months, that proves we're doomed, and will soon be much poorer"

I'm not sure if people are awake:

• the UK subsidises most of the states in the EU 
• the UK imports much more from the EU than we export to it
• the UK economy has grown way more than the rest of the EU since 2008
• the UK is the 5th largest economy on the planet
• much of the EU is in a severe depression

yet many believe that the UK is doomed outside the EU
this seems extremely illogical to me


Its because they WANT it to be doomed, to validate their position on Brexit.  They want disaster so they can cry "SEE!!!  SEE!!!  I WAS RIGHT!!! ALL THIS TIME I WAS RIGHT AND YOU LOT WERE ALL WRONG!!!"

Then they'll feel happy.....

exocet

ToneControl said:

Then the US decides to go independent again


I'm not sure if people are awake:

• the UK imports much more from the EU than we export to it

Why and how will this change once our withdrawal is complete? We run trade deficits with many countries, its been an issue since the 80s which if I recall correctly is when the balance of trade turned negative.

siremoon

Evilmags said:

Their is no legal contractual obligation for the UK to pay anything. It has been very clearly explained by treasury lawyers to the EU and why Barnier has a wasp up his ass. 

Exactly this.  An old mate of mine in the Civil Service was telling me the other day that our forensic accountants and lawyers have done an exceptional job so far in undermining the EU's financial demands and as a result Barnier is under intense pressure.  As someone remarked earlier the EU only resort to the UK press when they are in trouble.

ToneControl

exocet said:

ToneControl said:

Then the US decides to go independent again


I'm not sure if people are awake:

• the UK imports much more from the EU than we export to it

Why and how will this change once our withdrawal is complete? We run trade deficits with many countries, its been an issue since the 80s which if I recall correctly is when the balance of trade turned negative.

my point is that we import more from the EU than the EU imports from us, I can't imagine that the EU are going to forbid their citizens to continue exporting to us and importing from us

professorben

RandallFlagg said:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/michel-barnier-david-davis-brexit-educational-teach-uk-leaving-single-market-negotiations-a7927336.html

How long will the EU continue to back Barnier to lead negotiations if this stalemate over the Brexit bill amount doesn't get resolved?

Seeing as he has the vast majority of the cards in his favour, he can pretty much play the tune and we have to dance. 

57Deluxe

we need to break the shackles quick-like so that we can get a toe-in in the lucrative opportunity that will soon be North Korea....

ESBlonde

Another thought occures to me (well I've probably knicked it of some remoaner somewhere).
If the Europeans want to be paid 'reparations' for the divorce, where is our payment for the near bankruptcy we suffered at the end of each world war where we came to thier rescue?

I accept that that is a very right wing thing to say, the Americans were largely responsible for the financial gain on both events anyway. But it might stop the Barnier squad from pumping too hard, although I doubt it.

fields5069

ESBlonde said:

Another thought occures to me (well I've probably knicked it of some remoaner somewhere).
If the Europeans want to be paid 'reparations' for the divorce, where is our payment for the near bankruptcy we suffered at the end of each world war where we came to thier rescue?

I accept that that is a very right wing thing to say, the Americans were largely responsible for the financial gain on both events anyway. But it might stop the Barnier squad from pumping too hard, although I doubt it.

I'm just curious - do you know for certain that there were no reparations after the world wars? Besides which, using historical evidence to justify current behaviour is shaky ground to say the least!

ESBlonde

fields5069 said:

ESBlonde said:

Another thought occures to me (well I've probably knicked it of some remoaner somewhere).
If the Europeans want to be paid 'reparations' for the divorce, where is our payment for the near bankruptcy we suffered at the end of each world war where we came to thier rescue?

I accept that that is a very right wing thing to say, the Americans were largely responsible for the financial gain on both events anyway. But it might stop the Barnier squad from pumping too hard, although I doubt it.

I'm just curious - do you know for certain that there were no reparations after the world wars? Besides which, using historical evidence to justify current behaviour is shaky ground to say the least!

Germany was charged with paying reparations to the winners (mainly at the insistance of the USA) after WWI, the high cost was said to be one of the reasons for the rise of the far right in Germany in the desparate years that followed. The lesson was learned and after WWII the 'winners' sent some funds to help rebuild Germany and no reparations were asked for. We who had stood alone for so many years were left alone except by the Americans who wanted us to pay our debts for war equipment provided.

ToneControl

professorben said:

RandallFlagg said:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/michel-barnier-david-davis-brexit-educational-teach-uk-leaving-single-market-negotiations-a7927336.html

How long will the EU continue to back Barnier to lead negotiations if this stalemate over the Brexit bill amount doesn't get resolved?

Seeing as he has the vast majority of the cards in his favour, he can pretty much play the tune and we have to dance. 

why do you think this?

fields5069

ESBlonde said:

fields5069 said:

ESBlonde said:

Another thought occures to me (well I've probably knicked it of some remoaner somewhere).
If the Europeans want to be paid 'reparations' for the divorce, where is our payment for the near bankruptcy we suffered at the end of each world war where we came to thier rescue?

I accept that that is a very right wing thing to say, the Americans were largely responsible for the financial gain on both events anyway. But it might stop the Barnier squad from pumping too hard, although I doubt it.

I'm just curious - do you know for certain that there were no reparations after the world wars? Besides which, using historical evidence to justify current behaviour is shaky ground to say the least!

Germany was charged with paying reparations to the winners (mainly at the insistance of the USA) after WWI, the high cost was said to be one of the reasons for the rise of the far right in Germany in the desparate years that followed. The lesson was learned and after WWII the 'winners' sent some funds to help rebuild Germany and no reparations were asked for. We who had stood alone for so many years were left alone except by the Americans who wanted us to pay our debts for war equipment provided.

Thanks! This rings a bell actually, and sounds pretty reasonable.

thebreeze

Chalky said:

ToneControl said:

It's hard to comprehend all perspectives on this for me: I said this before

just imagine if in the 70s the USA created a superstate with all the states in north and south America: any state could veto new laws or FTAs, free movement was implemented, a common currency drove most southern american states to extreme poverty.

Then the US decides to go independent again

would we hear "but the USA does lots of trade with south America and mexico, we're doomed"
or "how will we ever negotiate trade deals of our own, the superstate was uniquely capable of such a feat"
"Mexico's GDP  grew by 0.3% in the last 3 months, that proves we're doomed, and will soon be much poorer"

I'm not sure if people are awake:

• the UK subsidises most of the states in the EU 
• the UK imports much more from the EU than we export to it
• the UK economy has grown way more than the rest of the EU since 2008
• the UK is the 5th largest economy on the planet
• much of the EU is in a severe depression

yet many believe that the UK is doomed outside the EU
this seems extremely illogical to me


Its because they WANT it to be doomed, to validate their position on Brexit.  They want disaster so they can cry "SEE!!!  SEE!!!  I WAS RIGHT!!! ALL THIS TIME I WAS RIGHT AND YOU LOT WERE ALL WRONG!!!"

Then they'll feel happy.....

This is just hysterical projection.  As far as I can see the main tenet of what people supporting Leave are saying is that it's the EU who are doomed - but that's okay I suppose?  Furthermore, it was ToneControl that said he was happy for he and his children to be worse off and take the financial hit.  dtr makes thoughtful and reasoned arguments, perhaps we can just leave it at that....or perhaps his arguments are unsettling for you?

quarky

fields5069 said:

ESBlonde said:

fields5069 said:

ESBlonde said:

Another thought occures to me (well I've probably knicked it of some remoaner somewhere).
If the Europeans want to be paid 'reparations' for the divorce, where is our payment for the near bankruptcy we suffered at the end of each world war where we came to thier rescue?

I accept that that is a very right wing thing to say, the Americans were largely responsible for the financial gain on both events anyway. But it might stop the Barnier squad from pumping too hard, although I doubt it.

I'm just curious - do you know for certain that there were no reparations after the world wars? Besides which, using historical evidence to justify current behaviour is shaky ground to say the least!

Germany was charged with paying reparations to the winners (mainly at the insistance of the USA) after WWI, the high cost was said to be one of the reasons for the rise of the far right in Germany in the desparate years that followed. The lesson was learned and after WWII the 'winners' sent some funds to help rebuild Germany and no reparations were asked for. We who had stood alone for so many years were left alone except by the Americans who wanted us to pay our debts for war equipment provided.

Thanks! This rings a bell actually, and sounds pretty reasonable.

Half correct. There was the Marshall Plan, but the UK the biggest beneficiary I think. Ultimately, the money to build the NHS was lent to us by the US at the end of WW2. Payment on that, and WW2 debts to the US (lend-lease) finished around 2008 (from memory).

Jalapeno

UK got nothing from the Marshall Plan, other than a bill for all the old crap the US had unloaded on us (WW1 ships etc)

quarky

Jalapeno said:

UK got nothing from the Marshall Plan, other than a bill for all the old crap the US had unloaded on us (WW1 ships etc)

I am pretty sure you are referring to lend-lease. And we got some good stuff from them too (and also gave them good stuff and crap too).

Jalapeno

Point being Europe got The Marshall Plan, UK got a bill.

quarky

I don't think that is entirely accurate.

As I said the UK was the largest recipient of Marshall Plan aid, and the money lent to the UK for the "socialist miracle", the NHS, was lent at something derisory like 2% P.A. interest. So it was a no-brianer to take really.