So... a flutter on the Euro ?

Emp_Fab

I'm just wondering about the effect of a Brexit or Bremain vote on the £/€ exchange rate.

I know nothing about currency markets, but I reckon that if the result is Brexit, the Euro will sink resulting in more for yer actual British Quid, and if it's Bremain, the Euro will, 'rally' I believe the word is, resulting in less for your Quid.

So, if you think it's going to be Bremain, buy your holiday cash now.  If you think it's going to be Brexit, hang on.  Is that the way it works?

*disclaimer:  You're mental if you take financial advice from me.

UnclePsychosis

You've got that the wrong way round. The ££ will crash if the vote is for Brexit. Even most Leave campaigners will admit that it will hurt in the short term. The question is whether or not you think it will recover long term.

ICBM

The real question is whether the Euro will crash *as well* if we leave, so keeping rough parity with the pound. The pound will fall against the US dollar, the Chinese Yuan, the Zimbabwean bazillion and the North Korean Wotsit though.

This matters to me since I'm going to France next month...

stickyfiddle

UnclePsychosis said:

You've got that the wrong way round. The ££ will crash if the vote is for Brexit. Even most Leave campaigners will admit that it will hurt in the short term. The question is whether or not you think it will recover long term.

THIS

I paid off my student loan last week because the pound dropped 3% overnight when the big Leave polls came out (i'm earning in AED which is pegged to USD). Saved me a hundred quid  

It was as low as $1.40 last week; now that remain is looking more likely it's recovered back to $1.47. If Brexit wins it's quite possible it'll drop to $1.30. Fuck knows what the Euro will do but I wouldn't bet on it getting cheaper on the pound if we vote to leave. 

The key thing is the markets consider that Europe will probably be fine if we leave, whereas it's big-time uncertainty for the UK. The up and down movement has been vaguely similar but not clear cut and in %age terms a fair bit less.

chillidoggy

/\ This.

If we vote to leave, the euro could potentially crash too, thus we may find there's not much of a difference, although it'll be dodgy for a few days, I reckon.

XE.com is your friend in the referendum nightmare.

Just_chillin

I know nothing about the financial aspects of all this however, for me personally, this vote is a huge decision and in a way quite scary.

If one is not happy with the government of the day, then after 5 years you can vote them out. The decision to remain or exit the EU is completely different and more than likely will be a once off.

All I can say is, with an informed decision cast your vote accordingly.

Good luck whichever way you vote. 

Emp_Fab

Don't believe all the nonsense about it being a one-time only chance.  If it proves financially beneficial for both parties for a brexitted UK to rejoin, we'll be back in before you can say "J'adore Delors".  One thing I've learned in my 52 years is how quickly stuff gets forgotten about...  "Woe, Woe, a plague shall be upon thee for a thousand years !!"....  two years later, "Oooh, look at that shiny thing over there everyone, let's all do this now".

One thing I obviously haven't learned in my 52 years are the basics of currency exchange.

chillidoggy

Emp_Fab said:

Don't believe all the nonsense about it being a one-time only chance.  If it proves financially beneficial for both parties for a brexitted UK to rejoin, we'll be back in before you can say "J'adore Delors".  One thing I've learned in my 52 years is how quickly stuff gets forgotten about...  "Woe, Woe, a plague shall be upon thee for a thousand years !!"....  two years later, "Oooh, look at that shiny thing over there everyone, let's all do this now".

One thing I obviously haven't learned in my 52 years are the basics of currency exchange.

Everything revolves around currency exchange!

Emp_Fab

Well, that's me fucked then.

chillidoggy

Indeed.

Even the price of laminate flooring will be affected by foreign exchange rates.

holnrew

"Bremain"? Ugh

stickyfiddle

Wouldn't it be "rEUmain" anyway?

Emp_Fab

I know...  I invented it earlier but couldn't be arsed to google if it was a word in use or not.  If you're expressing disgust then I'm guessing it's not in common parlance.  I wonder if I can patent it.

ICBM

Soros is now saying the pound will fall heavily in the event of a Leave, so it will. If the speculators think so it becomes a self-fulfilling prophesy since they will sell pounds - this is a fundamental problem with our financial system, but it's a fact.

Look at what happened in 1992 for evidence.

Sarge

Yeah I've got £5 on Spain to win.



wait, .... what?

PolarityMan

My next holiday is in canada so i hedged against a brexit vote by buying early. I doubt the pound will bounce back in time for us to leave even if (as i hope) it is a remain vote.

Flanging_Fred

I need to put my glasses on. I thought it said "a fluffer on the. Euro". Was a bit confused.

Evilmags

Risk free option is to buy Swiss Francs ahead of the Referendum. If Brexit happens then you sit until the pound falls (forced political selling) then buy back pounds.

Sarge

Flanging_Fred;1119296" said:

I need to put my glasses on. I thought it said "a fluffer on the. Euro". Was a bit confused.

you clicked to apply for the position?

hugbot

There are some echange companies that offer a deal where if you exchange your cash you can give it back at the same rate you got it from within 40 days I believe. Might be worth a look if you're planning a holiday.

Sporky

Evilmags said:

Risk free option is to buy Swiss Francs ahead of the Referendum. If Brexit happens then you sit until the pound falls (forced political selling) then buy back pounds.

The one thing that history has taught us is that economists are the people least likely to make accurate predictions.

Let's hope no-one from the City ever stands up on telly and says "Godzilla will definitely never attack England".