Predictions for 2017?

Chalky

Fretwired said:

I think Corbyn will stand down in 2017.

And he will blame everyone except himself for his complete failure.

Blueingreen

sev112 said:

Blueingreen said:

In terms of the geopolitical situation this is the gloomiest I've felt in my lifetime.  The president elect of the US is a thin-skinned, narcissistic sociopath whose just been given even more reasons to believe that ignoring wiser counsel and being recklessly aggressive and confrontational is the best way to get what he wants.  How that's going to play out if there's a serious confrontation with China, North Korea, Iran or Russia I shudder to think. 

Russia's nuclear arsenal is in the hands of a murderous tyrant whose solution to domestic problems is military expansionism and empire building abroad:  he's been ever more blatantly testing the West's resolve and so far the lesson he's learning is that it's absolutely feeble.  I believe that he will keep pushing his luck to the point that the West is forced to warn him that one more step will have immediate military consequences.  The worry is that by then it's too late.

All that against the backdrop of Islamic fundamentalism, ISIS and the arrival of China as an economic and military superpower.

I hope and pray things don't deteriorate further next year but for the first time in my life - and I'm old enough to remember the Cold War - I'm genuinely scared.vc

So, basically the same as the late 70s and early 80s - look at the superpowers involved, look at the  people leading the countries, the apparent threats, and the civil wars going on between eg Isarel, Palestine, Lebanon.  Not really much different.

we had Thatcher in the Uk who you all hate, an actor as US president, China as one of the superpowers and the USSR with more power than Russia.

ok, it's a scaremongering thread, I get that, but we've been here before and will be again.

i think Baader Meinhof might still have been doing their stuff in the late 70s and so were the IRA so major urban city terrorism also isn't a new thing 

I don't agree it's like the '80s.  At that time there were only two serious players, and although the acronym for Mutually Assured Destruction was apt in a way, the fact remains that it was a stability of a kind.  Both players realised they had way more to lose than gain from any serious escalation of hostility, neither side was under the sway of the type of people who were unstable, populist, belligerent risk-takers.  After the Cuban Missile crisis there was never again a sense that either side was willing to take the kind of risks that might provoke war. in other words, there was a widespread belief that both sides would act rationally.

I entirely take the point that Russia is significantly smaller economic power than even the UK, never mind the US; that its military budget is dwarfed by the USA's.   But the fact remains it still has the second biggest nuclear arsenal in the world, and that it is led by a leader whose power entirely depends (apart from suppression of free speech) on an image as a military aggressor "standing up to the West".

Putin has taken risks in Syria, and as things stands it's worked for him 100%.  When militaristic tyrant have that sort of success, their next thought isn't usually to go home and mind the farm.  If the economy at home can't be fixed, they have a tendency to think the quick way to economic prosperity is to annex chunks of someone else's economy.

I predict he will be back for more.  I doubt that Trump will be interested in confronting him, at least in the early stages of his presidency.  Yes, the European Union is massively larger than Russia economically, but it can't be relied on to act in concert, its military budget is a tiny percentage of its economy, larely based on the assumptions that  there's no significant threat of a war between major powers and that if it did happen the US would look after Europe. 

That second assumption no longer looks very solid.  Until very recently it would have seemed preposterous to suggest that the US would allow Russia to behave as it has in Syria.  Now we're moving from a President whose unhappy about Russian aggression but unwilling to take the steps necessary to prevent it, to one happy to accept is as a fait accompli.

Even if Trump's exhortations that the Europeans need to increase military spending work, the effect of that will take time.  Meantime countries at a "safe" distance from Russian expansionism, like France, may be reluctant to take risks to protect territories that were in any case within the Russian sphere of influence only recently.  Meanwhile Putin may decide that he has a window of opportunity.

ThePrettyDamned

breakstuff said:

Drew makes a reappearance.

I hope so . He had a lot of good advice and was a great contributor to the forum. 

I reckon May will resign. I have nothing to back this up, but I think there will be a lot of political turmoil and it'll lead to that. 

Nitefly

Fretwired said:

I think Corbyn will stand down in 2017.

Interesting, @Fretwired , especially in light of McCluskey's comments today.

What do you think might be the trigger event?  Or would it be more an attrition thing?

Fretwired

Nitefly said:

Fretwired said:

I think Corbyn will stand down in 2017.

Interesting, @Fretwired , especially in light of McCluskey's comments today.

What do you think might be the trigger event?  Or would it be more an attrition thing?

@Nitefly The polls I guess and the local election results. If May gets stymied triggering A50 she may take a bold move and trigger a vote of no confidence in the government and then move to repeal the Fixed Term Parliament Act and hold a general election on Brexit. If we get an election in 2017 and Corbyn does badly he'll be forced to stand down.

Nitefly

Cheers,  I should think a General Election is the very last thing JC would want right now...

Deadman

I don't foresee anything. I am however hoping that Fat Kim gets assassinated and we don't come under terrorist attack. 

Chalky

May is struggling to show leadership. She will either have to transform herself into a leader or else someone else will outshine her and make a bid to be PM, with no general election needed...

Clarky

my prediction is that I think I will be paying a lot of tax in 2017