It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!
Subscribe to our Patreon, and get image uploads with no ads on the site!
Base theme by DesignModo & ported to Powered by Vanilla by Chris Ireland, modified by the "theFB" team.
Comments
But it's true we don't have the same kind of electric six string heroes anymore - not universal ones anyway.
Ironically I think it's one of the best times to be a guitar buyer. So many wonderful high quality guitars coming out of the far east now. It's not a great time to be Fender or Gibson, but if you are looking to spend £400 on a new guitar you're actually going to be able to by a better guitar than you ever have been able to.
I know the articles are about electrics but Martin are still in the hands of the Martin family. Taylor are still run by Bob Taylor.
Apparently Sheeran is a Clapton fan. If he were to pick up and an electric and go a bit more rock, things could change overnight.
James Bay can properly play when he wants to as well.
Country and roots stuff seems to be getting bigger as well. Twanging Teles might not be wall of Marshall stack power trio but it's still electric guitar.
I'm not sure the demise of the live music scene is helping things very much. That's partly down to logistics and licensing, but I think the noise police don't help. It's difficult to have a proper "rock" attitude if you have a limiter at 95dB.
Even if you haven't worked in the industry, you'd need to have lived under a rock for the past 20 years to not notice the decline.
I'd agree that there are too many manufacturers - producing too many guitars that are too similar to each other. We have a guitar media that are obsessed with looking backwards (because thats what "sells") and all things old. Guitarists are cluttered with equipment. Finding places to play music that isn't 20+ year old covers is almost impossible.
The list goes on.
But the big one is young people just aren't being inspired to pickup, learn and play guitar in the numbers needed to support the current industry and that makes the future very finite.
The big scare, though, is Guitar Centre. When they fold (and believe me, the situation cannot continue indefinitely) we will see some *big* scalps as the US guitar industry (which ultimately dictates the buying/selling market worldwide) is wholeheartedly dependant on GC. As I've said before, this is the exact reason for Gibson's direct selling initiative - and the other big guns will do similar, mark my words. They'll have to and from a business perspective, it makes lots more sense to the manufacturer. I know a lot of folks here are very anti direct selling but, get used to it as it *is* the future whether you like it or not. All the signs are that its working, too... from what I've heard, the off-loading of the 2015 Gibsons through Amazon, even at the daft low prices that they went for, meant Gibson made a profit from their sale (albeit a squeezed one). Something they never could have done through the shops under those circumstances.
I believe that the future of the electric guitar isn't bleak, unless you make a living either making or distributing them. Natural selection will inevitably kill off some of the *huge* number of 'manufacturers', as the current choice is too great. The boutique market is doing well but thats only because their sales channel isn't flooded... yet. Once it gets flooded, again, we will see a lot fall away - bear in mind a large number of these guys are only one step up from hobbyist. However, the cream will rise to the top - dispite the fact that shit floats.
Finally, vintage guitars - and back to the article in particular. George Gruhn is probably rightly a little concerned. The baby boomers who made loads of money wanted to buy those expensive guitars that they couldn't afford in the 1960s when they were at college and bought heavily into the vintage market. The vintage guitar market boomed - in the majority, it wasn't really gigging musicians who bought these things, it was collectors and regular guys reliving their youth. As the BB generation die off, and their families liquidate their estates, we will see far more of these guitars become available again - and so, values will drop. We are seeing this elsewhere in other collectibles markets - the value of Dinky and Corgi Toys for example is falling for the 'standard' stuff. The mint and super rare are plateau-ing. The reason being is younger generations aren't interested in collecting these things in such the same numbers as their parents. Therefore whilst the exceptional will always hold a value, those that are restored or not quite perfect become less desireable and the values fall. Could we see the value of a "players grade" vintage Fender dropping to affordable levels? Not next week, but certainly I believe so within a reasonable time span.
That leaves Mr Gruhn and the other vintage dealers in a bit of a pickle - as there are a lot of them right now. If the market shrinks and the channel floods, there is less money to go around. The vintage guitar market has always been a 'long game' but with some guitars being on sale from certain stores for years (literally) how long can it last? You need cashflow to pay the mortgage.
Its not all doom and gloom - as musicians we, I believe, live in a golden era as consumers. The equipment has never been cheaper in real terms for the quality you receive. The choice is insane (confusing sometimes). We can get our new music 'out there' easier than ever before - in theory, although earning money from it is a different matter. And most of us have some of the best instruments we have ever owned in our lifetimes as a result.
But like I say, more tough times ahead for manufacturers and distributers of musical gear and its no secret. A death, though? Not quite.
It only takes one artist to make a big splash and get people buying guitars. Sadly for the guitar companies, we're overdue the next one, if there even IS a "next one".
Since I've been playing, you could probably credit three or four players with majorly increasing guitar sales - Slash, Cobain, Gallagher maybe...one or two others.
A few years back I couldn't go into a guitar shop without hearing some kid playing Muse, but Bellamy's guitars are a bit too esoteric for the mass market. If he'd been a Strat player I reckon Fender would have cleaned up.
I think the Black Keys influence in the US has affected vintage guitars more than the Arctics affected new guitar sales.
I agree about venues to play is an issue and I dare say many of us have found gigging was a good way to get the girls and it has had an impact on wanting to play
As for Guitar Centre - I think we've been waiting for The Woolworths or Tower Records moment now for a while and as and when it happens then it will seriously hurt many major brands - this is the latest blog https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-04-24/guitar-center-debt-hits-sour-note-as-bonds-hover-near-new-lows - But financial experts like Eric Garland have commented about this in the past http://www.ericgarland.co/2015/02/03/end-guitar-center/ - Bigger companies then GC have disappeared for various reasons
I do wonder if the teaching methods around these days (School of Rock, Guitar Pro, a bottomless well of youtube teachers) is really that much of a good thing for music as a whole. Kids are gaining very strong technical abilities and being taught the 'right' way of doing things but I'm pretty sure this will not give rise to a new Sonic Youth, Napalm Death or Ramones. I think a lot of interesting players styles develop before they can really play. A few quirks or stumbles across something unique but cool while figuring out for yourself with little guidance can be what gives a player their style. By the time these kids can play all opportunities for really developing a unique style are pretty much gone.
There's some incredible guitar music around these days but things have been taken to extremes and it means the great stuff doesn't worry the pop charts and doesn't make kids want a guitar. I think the last time it really happened was Nu-Metal. It was fresh, loud, had broad appeal and made kids want to jump around, but it was accessible for a new player to learn a few of the riffs.
People might think of bands like the Foo Fighters, Queens of The Stone Age, Muse or Mastodon as the current generation of guitar heroes. They're old, certainly to a teenage kid who's looking for an outlet to his/her angst. I see a lot of kids getting into playing through their guitar playing dads but I think they have too much guidance/interference. That kid will not inspire his generation by learning how to play Dakota by the Stereophonics.
Kids also like people who sing about things they're interested in or feel ie: shagging, getting wasted and feeling misunderstood. In simple terms too. What guitar acts sing about stuff like that?
Not sure if it is valid but someone once said if Tesco's or Sainsbury's aren't selling your album then you are not mainstream
Martin are a good mention - a company that's still what it was (still owned by people who care about guitar... I think).
I didn't count PRS in my mention, simply because the founder still works there - we'll know more about their future when he decides to retire and who continues the brand. He still clearly has lead in his pencil right now.
My main thought on this topic though: Fender and Gibson are not what they were 30 years ago (look who's talking!) If both companies died tomorrow without trace, and nobody even bothered to buy the brands and manufacture those headstocks, would it really hurt music in any way? No.
I would also like to add that in many ways today is the golden era of guitar building - From £100 to 10K or whatever, it has never been this good across the whole spectrum of big brands to small luthiers - Granted there are some good old vintage guitars but there was some pure crap made in the 50's and 60's as well
“Theory is something that is written down after the music has been made so we can explain it to others”– Levi Clay
However it does mean the casual listener doesn't associate it with being a guitar. It's one of the reasons I never really got in to learning Rage Against the Machine songs, while I loved the music the guitars often weren't making guitar sounds.
The real trick for the US/western makers is to develop the chinese market and sell into them as a premium product for the future. However I suspect they have other trends in mind.
It's not over yet but as the Baby boomers realise they have retired owning 6 expensive guitars (or die leaving the widows doing it) and try to sell them, the market will flood and the buyers will shrink. It's happened with antique trends, classic cars etc. and guitars will be soon(ish).