Fearmongering.....The Weather

Bellycaster

So, the first thing I hear on Monday morning (March 19th) is...."Ooooh, they've forecast more snow for Easter Monday (April 2nd)". People saw it on Facebook, apparently. I thought to myself, how far in advance can the weather be accurately forecast? I'd say about 2 or 3 days tops, so how the fuck can they say for certain this will happen?

This is one link from The Mirror (whose bullshit I can't be arsed to read for fear of projectile vomiting). There will be tons of "Beast from the Easter" stories going round the internet though I will bet.

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/beast-east-4-forecasters-warn-12230247

So, the technology is even good enough to forecast it for late April, from late March. Wow! Normally, it's very rare that 14 day weather forecasts are accurate by any means, so why all this fearmongering, I'm totally sick of it with the media.

I know it can snow in March and April, this is not about that, it's about how and when it is reported.

Fretwired

I remember when it snowed in June in 1975 ..... bloody cold.

Danny1969

Well basically the weather is caused by the uneven heating of the planet by the sun and the atmospheres attempt to even it out ... basically areas of high and low pressure. So they enter as much data from as many places as they can and from that they can kind of predict what's likely to happen based on what happened last time the data was similar. It's not fool proof and the further away the date the less likely the prediction is to be right. 
As someone who's involved with outside festivals the weather forecast is something I'm interested in .... but it's only right about 60% of the time in my experience  

Bellycaster

Fretwired said:

I remember when it snowed in June in 1975 ..... bloody cold.

I've heard about that, June 2nd, a Cricket match was halted. It was near Buxton though, it can be 25 C in the surrounding areas, but, then you get up to Harpur Hill near Buxton and it drops to about 11C.

More Factoids: Apparently, it also snowed in Late April 1981, early April 1966 and in early May 1979. Yep, I should go and play my Guitar.

Bellycaster

Danny1969 said:

Well basically the weather is caused by the uneven heating of the planet by the sun and the atmospheres attempt to even it out ... basically areas of high and low pressure. So they enter as much data from as many places as they can and from that they can kind of predict what's likely to happen based on what happened last time the data was similar. It's not fool proof and the further away the date the less likely the prediction is to be right. 
As someone who's involved with outside festivals the weather forecast is something I'm interested in .... but it's only right about 60% of the time in my experience  

If it's predicting Shit weather, you can bet it will be right. It's only the Heatwave predictions that are bollocks

p90fool

A friend of mine was head of medium range forecasting at the Met Office in Exeter until he retired a few months ago. 

Whenever we stay over at his we ask him what the weather will do tomorrow so we can plan our weekend and he always replies, "Dunno, I do medium range," to which we all have to shout "Ok Eddie, what did you think it was going to do tomorrow a week ago last Wednesday?!"

To be fair they are pretty accurate at medium range of a week to ten days, but it's expressed in general regional terms with percentages attached to likely outcomes. The computer models they run are quite amazing when you're looking over the shoulder of the man who designed it. 

What the TV stations and worse, the tabloids do with those figures are up to them unfortunately. 

Jalapeno

Easter is next week dude !

thecolourbox

p90fool said:

A friend of mine was head of medium range forecasting at the Met Office in Exeter until he retired a few months ago. 

Whenever we stay over at his we ask him what the weather will do tomorrow so we can plan our weekend and he always replies, "Dunno, I do medium range," to which we all have to shout "Ok Eddie, what did you think it was going to do tomorrow a week ago last Wednesday?!"

To be fair they are pretty accurate at medium range of a week to ten days, but it's expressed in general regional terms with percentages attached to likely outcomes. The computer models they run are quite amazing when you're looking over the shoulder of the man who designed it. 

What the TV stations and worse, the tabloids do with those figures are up to them unfortunately. 

With the last bit though, the Met office app normally says the same add the BBC, and it's usually wrong?

usedtobe

What does the Mail say?

starwarsnosebleed

Its categorically NOT going to snow over Easter

My neighbour, Mr Fish told me.

Bellycaster

Jalapeno said:

Easter is next week dude !

Read the O.P. It's been forecast since Monday, 2 weeks before Easter Monday

ToneControl

Just be glad the earth is still spinning

prowla

The "Arctic weather" will no doubt be "sweeping across" the country in "swathes" bringing the country to "a standstill" with "sub-zero" temperatures in "large areas".

boogieman

usedtobe said:

What does the Mail say?

“All this cold weather is caused by immigrants upsetting the global weather patterns. It would never have happened if Princess Diana was alive, God bless her.”

JezWynd

The Mirror has specialised in weather scare stories in recent years. Cheaper than paying journalists to carry out investigations.

57Deluxe

Fretwired said:

I remember when it snowed in June in 1975 ..... bloody cold.

was a fluke as it 'snowed' then instantly melted. Wasn't a -4 freeze-down like recently.

guitars4you

Bellycaster said:

Fretwired said:

I remember when it snowed in June in 1975 ..... bloody cold.

I've heard about that, June 2nd, a Cricket match was halted. It was near Buxton though, it can be 25 C in the surrounding areas, but, then you get up to Harpur Hill near Buxton and it drops to about 11C.

recall that - 40 over Sunday League I recall - Derbys v Lancs - from memory snow/hail stopped 

octatonic

It is 32 degrees here and sunny.

Reverend

The papers love to run stories based on Exacta weather's forecasts. 
Next up, here is Jimmie Krankie on the rise of Islamic State.

Bellycaster

octatonic said:

It is 32 degrees here and sunny.

It's Sunny here and 32...........Fahrenheit 

blobb

Average duration of a weather front over England? 3 days.

Hence the Luftwaffe forecast system used during the Battle of Britain: What did it do yesterday? - it will probably do the same tomorrow.