Where will the guitar market be in 30 years?

guitars4you

As an additional comment - If anything happened to me I've left instructions for my daughter to contact Gardiner + Houlgate and place it an an auction - One simple transaction that should get a good market  price - No hassling around on e-bay  etc, handling insulting offers, one by one and all the bullshit that can go with it , sold not as described, wanting a PayPal refund etc etc etc 

scrumhalf

Just because a 65 year-old Les Paul is worth a fortune doesn't mean that a Marlin Sidewinder will be worth a packet in x years' time.

As is the case in most things, value will be determined by three things:

- supply and demand

- what someone is willing to pay

- inherent value

stickyfiddle

To the original question, my assumption is "Almost entirely within a 77-year-old Joe Bonamassa's house" 

guitars4you

guitars4you said:

Music has always evolved and will continual to do so - My grandad played sax in a dance band - Very prim and proper - Please take your partner for a waltz etc - He taught my dad to play sax but dad came out of the Louis  Jordan jump jive early 50's  era - So playing sax was so much different then - Grandad went to see dad play a gig - Dad lying on his back playing a solo cavorting his body across the stage floor - Grandad told him off the following day saying, I did not teach you to play the sax so you could prostitute your art 

Move on a few years and my dad never got the 'thrash' guitars of punk etc and effectively told me they can't even play properly - Maybe they couldn't - I've seen, on tv, major acts tour without a guitar 

Yet today, in some form or another, music has probably never been so diverse - I sold an electric guitar recently to a customer who only plays electric at home - His 'gigging' band is a sea shanty style band with a melodion player, violin player and a percussionist - He says they could easily gig 2/3 days a week if they wanted to as it is so popular - Maybe a novelty act - But it is music and out is live

Either way I bet there are few instruments that are worth less today, than they were 40/50/60 years ago 

Probably having 2nd thoughts about my last sentence - Up right pianos that were very common 80-100 years ago are now largely worthless - Many accordions, from a similar era are worthless, other than as an ornament - Both both were very popular instruments, in many households, 80-100 years ago 

Will be interesting to see what will happen to old valve amps, as it is slowly getting harder to buy new valves - Less factories now producing valves 

jca74

Pianos are a bit of a special case, since they typically degrade with age, especially those with a wooden frame which can't cope with the stresses they are under. A 40 year old solid-body guitar may still a perfectly usable instrument...a 40 year old upright wooden-framed piano, rather less so.

OilCityPickups

monquixote said:

The low depreciation of guitars is a blessing and a curse.

For future generations anything other than one special instrument they can remember you by is just going to be another annoying headache they have to deal with when you die. They will probably take them to a shop and get a fraction of the value.

Rock music is currently dead and doesn't seem to be looking like coming back any time soon (though who knows) and the population of people who obsess about vintage guitars is aging out so it's possible there will be a big drop like has happened with Harley Davidson.

Other hobbies like PCs or Cameras know their gear will depreciate to worthlessness and so don't get hung up on resales.

Think about the value of what you have in terms of the enjoyment you get out of them not potential resale or kid yourself that you are making any kind of investment.

I'm not sure I'd agree rock music is dead ... it's just changed. 

sawyer

UPDATE Have bought the guitar and I'm over the moon with it. Crisis over and back to business as usual.
Cheers chaps

Vintage65

They'll come in handy for firewood if the country ever collapses.

darthed1981

sawyer said:

UPDATE Have bought the guitar and I'm over the moon with it. Crisis over and back to business as usual.
Cheers chaps

Happy NGD.

If it doesn't appreciate into an expensive relic... you can always play music with it

prowla

I think that the market has got a bit silly over the past 5 years and the ever-increasing valuations are unsustainable.

However, I also thought that with house prices back in the 90s/00s, so what do I know?

Yorkie

In 30 years: 

- PRS guitars made entirely of plastic.
- One Joe Bonamassa signature model for every atom on the surface of the planet. 

- Valves start coming with a high-voltage DSP inside. 

- YouTube goes lossless, YouTubers blame something else for their shit playing. 

- AI starts generating tabs, AC/DC tabs still wrong on Ultimate Guitar. 

RichAC

A random thought triggered by this thread:

We’re used to it, but when you think about it it’s quite remarkable that electric guitar design hasn’t really changed in 70 years or so. You can plug a brand new guitar into a decades-old amp, or vice versa, and it’ll work fine. Are there many other areas where you can buy an off-the-shelf product and interface it into a 70 year old product without any thought or problems?

Tall_martin

Great job op

As for what will be worth something something that is tricky to get or something current kids couldn't afford.

My 4 year old was gifted boxes of 80's Lego from a mate who's daughter is off to uni.

Alego obsessed friend came round a picked out on space dude. £30 on eBay for one Lego mini dude because the gold chest is rare.

That's something with no intrinsic value that was rare and clearly people "need" it for a set. Or some other Lego reason.

I've been tempted by the fancy st Vincent guitar as a 40 year investment. Too expensive for millennials, rare now, bit of a fan base. Except they are too expensive for me to make that bet

darthed1981

Another random thought triggered by this thread...

If in 30 years we haven't got to net zero - we might as well get burying guitars for alien archaeologists...

slacker

Some random thoughts after reading this thread.

Who cares what my guitars are worth? I bought them to play and that won't happen when I'm dead.

My regularly update my wife with the value of my klon. She's to pay for my funeral with it.

When my stash of valves run out I'll model my amps with a kemper, or use a frieman ir preamp or hope my nano valves out last me.

I sometimes obsess over overdrive even though I have about 5. And then I'll pick up my gs mini or om28 and actually play the thing. Or I'll play my tele with the stones on YouTube.

Philly_Q

Where will the guitar market be in 30 years?  I don't know, but I'm pretty sure I won't be there to see it.

TheMarlin

Prediction;
1999 built big brand guitars will go nuts in price. 

Benm39

slacker said:

...

BEFORE my stash of valves run out I'll model my amps ...

FTFY

fretfinder

Yorkie said:

In 30 years: 

- PRS guitars made entirely of tone plastic.

FTFY 

JerkMoans

Probably on the back burner, as those of us that remain roam the shattered, irradiated streets in feral bands, searching for rats for the pot.