Where will the guitar market be in 30 years?

sawyer

So I've asked recently about Gibson Nighthawks on the forum and as if by magic, ones turned up near me! 2013, 20th anniversary in amber with very nice flame top.Looks like it's in as new condition and the guys wanting £1300. Bit more than I wanted to pay, but does look to be like new and the market does seem to be about that mark.
So for some reason I'm feeling guilty.

 I've a few Gibsons,99 firebird,87 Junior,03 Standard and a nice old 94 PRS plus old 88 Charvel and a few self builds. The Gibsons and Charvel were bought quite a while back and have appreciated more than the money would have in the bank. I've enjoyed all the buying and trading to get to this point. They were all hard earned and I get a lot of pleasure from them  For that reason I've always been content to buy and enjoy guitars.

Question is, the markets topping out I think and  I'm thinking this Nighthawk and my PRS are unlikely to appreciate. Maybe even go down?I'm also suddenly realised I'll be 60 years old in 4 years time and makes me think what will I do in the future as I get older?

I have my Partner and 2 daughters. Am I just amasing guitars ,that in 20 years time will have no value or a nightmare to sell when i croak. Will anyone in the future care. I don't see kids obsess over guitars like ourselves in our 30's/40"s etc.

Am i just becoming a silly old man buying things i dont need? Im intermediate gutarist at best and unlikely to get better.

Im wondering should i give my head a shake and walk away from this deal and stop been silly?

HandwrittenHero

There was an interesting comment I saw on The Gear Page earlier this week that was basically how you don’t see this level of soul searching and hand wringing on a Harley Davidson forum. They can only ride one bike at a time as well.

It’s tricky. On the one hand I do buy with half an eye on if I need to balance the books, but that’s just being extra cautious. Guitar is still a hobby so it comes after life admin stuff. I.e. I’ve chipped my mortgage, paying into the pension, built the rainy day fund etc over a big purchase.

If the market did go completely tits up and my tele had more value to others as a chopping board then so be it. I ultimately bought it because you get one go round on this rock and it brought me joy while I’m on it. If it owes me nothing when the music stops, who cares if it goes for nothing.

ICBM

The Nighthawk is a good guitar with a limited market, so unlikely to either appreciate much or become worthless. From the description you probably won’t see another one as good for much less any time soon. 56 is not old at all (at least I tell myself that ), you’ve got plenty of time to enjoy it - it doesn’t matter how ‘good’ you are.

None of us *need* more than a couple of guitars even if we play semi-professionally, and although I do think collections of more than about half a dozen or so are maybe a bit daft, they’re not actually doing any harm.

I did recently have to help a friend’s family sell his collection after he passed away, far too young - but he loved his guitars and I’m sure he enjoyed life more with them than without - part of the fun for him was having the choice of what to play, as much as actually playing them. He had nearly 30.

If you can afford it and it’s not going to cause any other domestic trouble, go for it .

pt22

Most mass produced guitars are not investments. I think the best you can hope for is a hold in value over time for something slightly unique. If you get lucky, great, but if you’re buying with the intent of at some point cashing in or even making back a high percentage of what was paid out I think you’ll be disappointed. 

If you buy quality, you can help alleviate the worst of it. 

bertie

I really don't give a toss what my guitars will be worth in 5, 10 20 or....oh I'll be dead by then...............(save two, Im selling to fund another) I bought them to play/admire  not as an investment, and they'll be in my possession when I croak

elstoof

Just imagine how vintage correct the R9s will be in 30 years!

sawyer

Thanks chaps. Don't know why I get this feeling of guilt. I always get it after a big purchase, but I know it will go away.

I'm not wealthy, but I've been sensible and diligent all my life and bought and sold over 30 years to get here.

Just tried to get the guy down to£1200 but he's having non of it ha.

Lawriejones1

Agree with what others have said.

I’ve been involved in helping a deceased person sell what (on paper) looks like a valuable collection. Unfortunately, it’s an absolute nightmare full of tyre kickers, rip off merchants, predatory dealers and the odd good egg.

If you want to bequeath something to your kids, I’d sell them before you go.

Will your guitars be worth much in the future? Depends on the geopolitical situation, climate change and the economy I’d say - all things outside of your control.

sawyer

Lawriejones1 said:

Agree with what others have said.

I’ve been involved in helping a deceased person sell what (on paper) looks like a valuable collection. Unfortunately, it’s an absolute nightmare full of tyre kickers, rip off merchants, predatory dealers and the odd good egg.

If you want to bequeath something to your kids, I’d sell them before you go.

Will your guitars be worth much in the future? Depends on the geopolitical situation, climate change and the economy I’d say - all things outside of your control.

Yeah I'm thinking this is what I'd do. Let them have what they want and sell the rest before I pop me clogs

rossi

Unless its a Hello KItty Squier it will be worthless .Pray why  you ask ? .Well Hello KItty will still be collected ,.guitars wont.

richardhomer

It’s a fairly safe bet I’ll be dead in thirty years, so the ‘problem’ won’t be mine. My son plays, so (assuming we haven’t all been nuked by then) he may keep some, or all of them. 

There are plenty of things people buy that will be worth a fraction of what they paid for them in the future (cars, TVs, phones, cameras, etc). Relatively few things do the reverse (houses, art, fine watches, etc). Plenty of people spend thousands on holidays which (financially) are entirely valueless once you’re back home.

So not an issue for me…

monquixote

The low depreciation of guitars is a blessing and a curse.

For future generations anything other than one special instrument they can remember you by is just going to be another annoying headache they have to deal with when you die. They will probably take them to a shop and get a fraction of the value.

Rock music is currently dead and doesn't seem to be looking like coming back any time soon (though who knows) and the population of people who obsess about vintage guitars is aging out so it's possible there will be a big drop like has happened with Harley Davidson.

Other hobbies like PCs or Cameras know their gear will depreciate to worthlessness and so don't get hung up on resales.

Think about the value of what you have in terms of the enjoyment you get out of them not potential resale or kid yourself that you are making any kind of investment.

ICBM

monquixote said:

For future generations anything other than one special instrument they can remember you by is just going to be another annoying headache they have to deal with when you die. They will probably take them to a shop and get a fraction of the value.

The collection I helped sell went for good prices - I put them in a shop on consignment, to be sold for the right money and not for speed. It took almost three years to sell them all, but the family got a decent amount of money from it. The key is patience.

prlgmnr

FT: 2015 R0: looking for a glass of clean water

57Deluxe

#Netzero-friendly Acoustic only

topdog91

The only realistic answer is "nobody knows". Most of us aren't Rick Nielsen and don't "need" our collections, but as long as they don't hurt us, it's all good. What can "hurt us" mean? Well, the main thing is usually financially. If you've got money sitting in wood and metal that doesn't get used regularly and you need the money for other things, maybe step back. If not, go for it. The joy and fun of opening a case and taking out a beloved guitar to play is much less if we are struggling to pay the bills. The other meaning of "hurt us" would be something like "stops us dealing with our emotions". Arguing with partner? Buying guitars isn't a solution. Feeling guilty? Stop and write down what you're feeling that's behind that, then deal with it. I love quirky guitars like Nighthawks and wish you the best either way.

monquixote

ICBM said:

monquixote said:

For future generations anything other than one special instrument they can remember you by is just going to be another annoying headache they have to deal with when you die. They will probably take them to a shop and get a fraction of the value.

The collection I helped sell went for good prices - I put them in a shop on consignment, to be sold for the right money and not for speed. It took almost three years to sell them all, but the family got a decent amount of money from it. The key is patience.

Indeed but that's annoying for the family especially if they are trying to divide things up and close it off.

I saw a £3k+ Yamaha Montage in Cash Converters the other day. Again guy who died. Family just wanted shot of everything and wasn't bothered about the best prices.

darthed1981

A life appreciating "things" leads to the bonfire at the end of Citizen Kane does it not?  Nobody knows what to do with all the shit so it just... burns... or goes to landfill.

Doesn't mean you shouldn't buy things to make you happy though - just means that there is a limit, and ultimately when you pass 70 - don't buy them expecting a lifetime to enjoy them.

The guitar market in 30 years will be much smaller than it is now.  Currently it's going through a bit of a boom period as you have two groups of people reaching certain ages...

1.  The boomer generation are retiring, who grew up on late 60s/early 70s rock, and as the wealthiest retirees there ever have been and ever will be, have money to spend on their "dream guitars".

2.  The 90s Britpop generation are getting to a point where they have "more" disposable income, and despite the kicking of the last few years, still are making an impact.  

Who will come along in future?  Guitar remains an extremely popular instrument to learn and play, and the industry isn't going anywhere, but big musical movements which cause people to pick up guitars en masse?  Never again.  The industry will shrink as the boomers die off.

Obviously metal still bumbles along doing it's own thing and generating more than it's fair share of musicians as well - which is of course a lovely thing.

Probably Ed Sheeran has got more people picking up a guitar and twisting their fingers into a G chord than anyone else in the last few years.  That's purely acoustic though.

That all said - if buying something now...

Can I afford it (like REALLY afford it, not debt, not skip a bill)?
Do I REALLY want it?
Do I have somewhere to put it?

Then buy it - life's too short etc...

Grumpyrocker

I've never ever bought a guitar with any thought of what it might be worth to someone else. I've bought it because I plan to keep it. If you're buying something based on depreciation you may not be buying the guitar you really want. 

swiller

id say anything that is older will appreciate, just like the 70s guitars have done despite their bad reputations. I cant see the guitar market going down significantly over time. Sure, ups and downs, but long haul i think it will be fine.
Already 80s stuff beginning to climb and be recognised as a quality era, esp late 80s. 
in fact with ai, perhaps real instruments (especially older to be classics) may see further interest away from the forthcoming ai era. Guitars are more beautiful than majority of other instruments so think it will be ok.
i would be looking at guitars you like but maybe 80s era to de risk depreciation, or at least break even.
And remember, keeping £500 under the mattress will still be £500 in 10 years time, and worth much less in spending terms in 10 years time.
Vast majority of my recent purchases are driven by breakeven or better. aka justifying the spend to myself at least.

guitars4you

Music has always evolved and will continual to do so - My grandad played sax in a dance band - Very prim and proper - Please take your partner for a waltz etc - He taught my dad to play sax but dad came out of the Louis  Jordan jump jive early 50's  era - So playing sax was so much different then - Grandad went to see dad play a gig - Dad lying on his back playing a solo cavorting his body across the stage floor - Grandad told him off the following day saying, I did not teach you to play the sax so you could prostitute your art 

Move on a few years and my dad never got the 'thrash' guitars of punk etc and effectively told me they can't even play properly - Maybe they couldn't - I've seen, on tv, major acts tour without a guitar 

Yet today, in some form or another, music has probably never been so diverse - I sold an electric guitar recently to a customer who only plays electric at home - His 'gigging' band is a sea shanty style band with a melodion player, violin player and a percussionist - He says they could easily gig 2/3 days a week if they wanted to as it is so popular - Maybe a novelty act - But it is music and out is live

Either way I bet there are few instruments that are worth less today, than they were 40/50/60 years ago