EU - We're staying in

crunchman

The trade thing is not just about the US.  If we don't negotiate a deal with the US we stay in the same position we are in now - not a great loss.  The way it's looking now TTIP is not going to happen in the near future so we won't lose out anyway.

Meanwhile we would be free to negotiate trade deals with other countries that would benefit us.  We could export things we are good at e.g. high tech medical equipment etc. without tariffs, and there would be things that we import that would get cheaper.

I think the EU has massive tariffs on things like sugar to protect EU sugar producers.  This causes major problems for developing countries who would like to export sugar.  Parts of the EU will refuse a trade deal with those countries to protect their sugar producers.  We could agree a deal with these countries where the EU won't, and undercut the EU on selling them technology and get ourselves cheaper sugar.  That's a bit simplistic but it's the kind of situation you are looking at.  We could be a lot more agile in negotiating trade deals without the vested interests in the EU.  At the moment the EU doesn't have deals with India and China for instance.

The ability to negotiate our own trade deals is one of the positives of being out.

I know there has already been a lot of scaremongering and I'm probably jumping on the bandwagon, but the thought of what could happen if we stay in is the biggest thing for me.  Greece is a basket case and will default on it's debts eventually.  Other countries in the Euro (most notably France) are nowhere near balancing their books either.  Add the stress of a Greek default to that and they will end up in major trouble.

This will mean a number of things.  Firstly, if we are still in the EU we will be expected to make big contributions to the bailouts.  Secondly, there will be a major recession and our exports to the rest of the EU will plummet.  (We would be better off diversifying our trade).  Thirdly, the Eurozone will have to come a lot closer together, give up their sovereignty, harmonise tax etc and become the United States of Europe.  It is the only way the Euro can function.  In this case we will be a second class country in the EU.  If that doesn't happen then the Euro will break up - in which case we are definitely better off out.

Chalky

Be interesting to see what happens after the nationwide strike in Greece and the vote by their parliament on Sunday.

ICBM

Fretwired said:

After June the EU will issue a document on the next phase of political and economic integration. If the UK wants to be a part of it then we will have to take the Euro. If we stick with the pound then we won't be part of the decision making process covering a wide range of economic activity. Those decisions will be imposed on the UK and will favour the Eurozone group. All new EU members have to commit to taking the Euro so if Turkey joins it will take the Euro as its currency. The UK will be in a minority of countries without the Euro.

If we vote to stay in the UK will take the Euro. We will not have a choice as to not do so would be economic suicide.

Turkey will not join if we veto it (as I hope we would). New country membership is one of the issues still requiring a unanimous vote, not a majority.

And we won't *have* to take the Euro if we don't want to - we will just have to decide whether we think it's in our better interests to stay out. For what it's worth currently I would prefer to stay out.

Even if we decide that it is an offer we can't refuse, that's not the same as "imposition". The EU does not have that power.

Fretwired

ICBM said:

Fretwired said:

After June the EU will issue a document on the next phase of political and economic integration. If the UK wants to be a part of it then we will have to take the Euro. If we stick with the pound then we won't be part of the decision making process covering a wide range of economic activity. Those decisions will be imposed on the UK and will favour the Eurozone group. All new EU members have to commit to taking the Euro so if Turkey joins it will take the Euro as its currency. The UK will be in a minority of countries without the Euro.

If we vote to stay in the UK will take the Euro. We will not have a choice as to not do so would be economic suicide.

Turkey will not join if we veto it (as I hope we would). New country membership is one of the issues still requiring a unanimous vote, not a majority.

And we won't *have* to take the Euro if we don't want to - we will just have to decide whether we think it's in our better interests to stay out. For what it's worth currently I would prefer to stay out.

Even if we decide that it is an offer we can't refuse, that's not the same as "imposition". The EU does not have that power.

I went on a business trip to the EU Parliament. The view in the EU is the UK will take the Euro. It will have no choice as the EU is heading towards closer economic and political integration. That requires a single currency. If we are unwilling to take that currency then we can't sit at the top table.

We are arrogant to think that we can continue to throw our weight around and veto this and that - we are already the biggest PIA for the EU. I'm voting out but if the vote is to remain then I would support ditching the pound for the Euro. It's the only sensible thing to do.

ICBM

Fretwired said:

The view in the EU is the UK will take the Euro. It will have no choice as the EU is heading towards closer economic and political integration. That requires a single currency. If we are unwilling to take that currency then we can't sit at the top table.

I'm not sure that's very different from the proposal to leave the EU but still belong to the EFTA or some other fudge where we will still be bound by EU rules but not party to the decision-making, which is what the Leavers seem to want.

In any case what the EU says it currently wants and what it might find it wants in a few years when the problems in the Eurozone and with expansionism come home to roost might be very different. I'd still far rather be on the inside with limited power than on the outside with even more limited power, and still bound by the same rules either way - as we would be even if we leave entirely and still want to do business with them.

I also don't agree with the idea of vetoing things in general, but there are some issues which are recognised as being too major to be done by majority vote, and new membership is likely to always remain one. I wouldn't be surprised if there is a lot more opposition to Turkey joining either - not least from the Greeks.

Fretwired

ICBM said:

Fretwired said:

The view in the EU is the UK will take the Euro. It will have no choice as the EU is heading towards closer economic and political integration. That requires a single currency. If we are unwilling to take that currency then we can't sit at the top table.

I'm not sure that's very different from the proposal to leave the EU but still belong to the EFTA or some other fudge where we will still be bound by EU rules but not party to the decision-making, which is what the Leavers seem to want.

In any case what the EU says it currently wants and what it might find it wants in a few years when the problems in the Eurozone and with expansionism come home to roost might be very different. I'd still far rather be on the inside with limited power than on the outside with even more limited power, and still bound by the same rules either way - as we would be even if we leave entirely and still want to do business with them.

I also don't agree with the idea of vetoing things in general, but there are some issues which are recognised as being too major to be done by majority vote, and new membership is likely to always remain one. I wouldn't be surprised if there is a lot more opposition to Turkey joining either - not least from the Greeks.

The Greeks will vote yes as it means the refugees would have to remain in Turkey as the first EU country they entered (rather then Greece) and the Greeks need cash so they'll do whatever the Germans tell them to do. Cameron's for Turkey membership but it looks like the Turks maybe getting cold feet. Something to do with human rights ... :-)

p90fool

jellyroll said:

I want a UK government accountable to the UK people running the UK.

I think the chances of some faceless unelected Brussels bureaucrats have LESS empathy for the ordinary people of Britain than Cameron, Osborne and Johnson are pretty well zero.

These "UK governers" fucking hate us and just want to skin us alive at every turn, so rather like the unelected anachronism of the House of Lords acting as a safety net against the worst atrocities of Thatcherism, I believe an additional layer of government in Europe is actually a good thing.

"Sovereignty" is only useful if your leaders don't think their own population is scum.

ICBM

And also when your leaders are elected by a majority instead of just the largest minority, and then given near-dictatorial powers.

To be fair this government isn't quite so bad because their majority in parliament is small, but they were still only "elected" on 37% of the vote.

The Thatcher and Blair landslide governments - against which no effective opposition was possible at all - still only got in the low 40s.

Given that I also would rather have an additional layer of red tape and regulation to put a brake on the possible excesses of an "elected" government imposing its policies on the majority of the people.

chrispy108

Grunfeld said:

fretmeister said:

Trump has confirmed he is in favour of us leaving.

That should help end the Brexit campaign.

As it happens, because I know jack sh*t about politics this is kind of how I make my decision.  If Rupert Murdoch AND Donald Trump want us to leave THEN it only makes sense to stay.  And that is now how I'll vote.  Because those two are nasty loons, so what they want has got to be a bad thing.

It might be a rumour, but I heard they both breathe oxygen too, so better stop doing that as well

TheBlueWolf

fretmeister;1063214" said:

Trump has confirmed he is in favour of us leaving.

That should help end the Brexit campaign.

My thoughts exactly.

UnclePsychosis

Anyone more competent than Cameron and Corbyn would have had it won ages ago. 

I hear the "worst Prime Minister ever" accusation thrown at Cameron a lot. Losing the EU referendum would certainly put him up there. 

Chalky

p90fool;1063734" said:

jellyroll said:I want a UK government accountable to the UK people running the UK.





I think the chances of some faceless unelected Brussels bureaucrats have LESS empathy for the ordinary people of Britain than Cameron, Osborne and Johnson are pretty well zero.



These "UK governers" fucking hate us and just want to skin us alive at every turn, so rather like the unelected anachronism of the House of Lords acting as a safety net against the worst atrocities of Thatcherism, I believe an additional layer of government in Europe is actually a good thing.



"Sovereignty" is only useful if your leaders don't think their own population is scum.

You teach your kids to trust strangers more than people they know?

Placidcasual79

Strat_a_tat_tat said:

Am I the only one that thinks the phrases... ' strong leader'... and 'Jeremy Corbyn'... are like opposite poles of a magnet (Alnico V, of course).

That depends on whether you think strong equates to a man with at, best, flexible morals, a vested interest in advancing the agenda of the establishment and ruling elite and a man so estranged from the public he claims to represent that his every utterance and move is the result of consultation with shadowy PR advisors or whether you consider strong to be a man with clearly defined principles, who does not bow to the transient whims of knee jerk reactivisim, who isn't scared to take on corrupt institutes and all powerful sources of influence such as the financial sector or the military industrial complex.......

I know which I think is strong - but i guess you think Corbyn is flaky cus he isn't drowning in PR gloss......

To be clear leaving Europe is in the interest of the ruling elite - it will remove almost all restriction on the private market in the name of allowing us to be competitive - who'd do you think that will benefit? It won't improve wages for working people, it won't improve conditions for working people, it won't improve the lot of those dependent on social security - all will be sacrificed at the alter maximising profit. 

We have to stay in......

quarky

Yeah, because Eurozone growth, unemployment levels, and uncontrolled immigration are all good for working people.

Drew_TNBD

Placidcasual79 said:

Strat_a_tat_tat said:

Am I the only one that thinks the phrases... ' strong leader'... and 'Jeremy Corbyn'... are like opposite poles of a magnet (Alnico V, of course).

That depends on whether you think strong equates to a man with at, best, flexible morals, a vested interest in advancing the agenda of the establishment and ruling elite and a man so estranged from the public he claims to represent that his every utterance and move is the result of consultation with shadowy PR advisors or whether you consider strong to be a man with clearly defined principles, who does not bow to the transient whims of knee jerk reactivisim, who isn't scared to take on corrupt institutes and all powerful sources of influence such as the financial sector or the military industrial complex.......

I know which I think is strong - but i guess you think Corbyn is flaky cus he isn't drowning in PR gloss......

To be clear leaving Europe is in the interest of the ruling elite - it will remove almost all restriction on the private market in the name of allowing us to be competitive - who'd do you think that will benefit? It won't improve wages for working people, it won't improve conditions for working people, it won't improve the lot of those dependent on social security - all will be sacrificed at the alter maximising profit. 

We have to stay in......

Any facts, figures, or drawings of stickmen to support that viewpoint?

Placidcasual79

Drew_fx said:

Any facts, figures, or drawings of stickmen to support that viewpoint?

which part my friend? The contrast between Corbyn and Cameron is my own opinion - but it would be easy to evidence the dubious nature of Cameron's moral compass or his ties to profiteering (i.e. irresponsible) corporations. It'd be pretty easy to demonstrate his extensive use of PR consultation.....

Corbin's policies evidence his willingness to swim against the tide - 

The view that leaving the EU hands more power to the free market is a founding principal of exit campaign - 

I don't know where the stickmen come into it..... Perhaps you like something to distract you whilst you swallowing bulls*t?

Drew_TNBD

Placidcasual79 said:

Drew_fx said:

Any facts, figures, or drawings of stickmen to support that viewpoint?

which part my friend? The contrast between Corbyn and Cameron is my own opinion - but it would be easy to evidence the dubious nature of Cameron's moral compass or his ties to profiteering (i.e. irresponsible) corporations.

g'wan then.

It'd be pretty easy to demonstrate his extensive use of PR consultation.....

g'wan then.

Corbin's policies evidence his willingness to swim against the tide -

What are his policies?

The view that leaving the EU hands more power to the free market is a founding principal of exit campaign -

Evidence?

I don't know where the stickmen come into it..... Perhaps you like something to distract you whilst you swallowing bulls*t?

No need to be a fucking cunt about it.

quarky

If leaving Europe (assuming you mean the EU) is in the interest of the ruling elite, why are they all campaigning to stay? Are those saying we should stay (Cameron, Osbourne, Corbyn, etc.) not the ruling elite? Or is it some kind of special double-bluff? Part of the worlds biggest conspiracy?

Reverend

I can't wait until we take back power from unelected eurocrats.

And give it to unelected American businesses.

Placidcasual79

Drew_fx said:

Do we have to get into this? 

Cameron's questionable moral compass - how about his government cutting 829mil from the children and families budget whilst bankers bonuses have increased by 64% during his term in office? or the fact the rises in the minimum wage have been below the rate of inflation every year he has been in power, that he cut child benefit for working class families while giving tax cuts to millionaires? Or how about his 2008 declaration that 'gay rights are a fringe agenda' or his refusal to boycott the Russian winter olympics despite their appalling record of human rights abuse.....

His use of PR - I presume you know he began in the Torry research (i.e. PR) department, that he was special advisor (read PR consultant) to the former chancellor and foreign secretary, that he was so devoted to his beliefs and so full of conviction that he left the Tory party for a PR job in television. I presume you know about his relationship with Andy Coulson? Less said about the the better eh? How about the 4.7 million he paid consultancy firm Global Communication Solutions to shape public opinion about the civil war in Syria and the resultant 'immigration crisis' or the 2.1 million he pays Grenborne Consultancy to try and make him appear more palatable then him and his eatonian cronies would otherwise appear?

I won't list Corbyn's policies - but here are a few of the more anti establishment ones (in support of my original point that he is 'strong enough to stand against pressure) - 

renationalise railways

talking to militant groups

Anti trident

Using quantitive easing to invest in renewable energy, housing and digital instead of banks buying bonds, gilts and debt

A national education service similar to what was once the NHS

Being a member of the stop the war coalition - in fact I think he is the chair....

The reintroduction of rent control to stop wealthy property owners and developers selling out our towns and cities?

Less restriction on the free market is a principal of the european exit campaign - thats a given surely - its all over the media everyday - I guess this could be considered a positive if you believe in the trickle down effect. I don't. 

As for the being a cunt bit - I apologise - its my natural tendency - after belittling such a seismic issue with talk of stickmen its a bit late to be taking the high ground eh?