The Theresa May General Election thread (edited)

Fretwired

Emp_Fab said:

The bookies are responding; https://www.oddschecker.com/insight/politics/20170522-general-election-labours-odds-shortening-by-the-hour-following-mays-u-turn

Wished I'd had a punt or Corbyn at 100-1 ...

Fretwired

Skipped said:

Fretwired said:

“It’s chaos in here,” said one insider of Mrs May’s campaign headquarters. For a campaign based so heavily on one woman’s judgement, resilience and steadfastness, that’s not a good look.

If I may say so.....that is a fantastic point that has been missed by some of the media coverage.
The Tories have put all of their eggs in one basket.Much of the merchandising emphasises May and airbrushes away "Tories".

If Andrew Neil was in the right mood (this afternoon) he could blow her away in the interview which will be shown at 7pm tonight.
The problem is.....I think he knows that. I think he will have seen her this morning not looking strong and stable and I think he will pull back. Just enough. 

I've dealt with him .. he'll go for the jugular. He's an old fashioned journalist. His reputation is on the line.

Fretwired

Andrew Neil's interview with May was a total car crash ... she was seriously poor, unconvincing and out of her depth. Corbyn could win ..

Emp_Fab

Garthy said:

Emp_Fab said:

Talking of the nasty party....  I've just read that they are planning on scrapping the ban on the ivory trade.  http://evolvepolitics.com/theresa-mays-tory-manifesto-scraps-ban-elephant-ivory-sales-bowing-millionaire-antique-lobbyist/

If that's true, what the fuck is going on ?  Who are these people ?

Well you are certainly gullible.

Why am I gullible ? @Garthy ;

For believing a story that's all over the web, including The Independent ? http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/conservatives-ivory-trade-ban-2017-manifesto-scrap-pledge-illegal-poaching-a7748581.html

Drew_TNBD

I'm wavering in my resolve to not vote labour or greens.

Jalapeno

Well that Manchester bomb will change the complexion completely.

You can imagine it ....

Interviewer: Do you condemn ISIS (or whoever it was) ?

Jezza: I condemn all bombing

Interviewer: But do you condemn the bombers ?

Jezza: I condemn all bombing

cont'd pg 192 ....

capo4th

Jeremy please answer the question

Fretwired

Jalapeno said:

Well that Manchester bomb will change the complexion completely.

You can imagine it ....

Interviewer: Do you condemn ISIS (or whoever it was) ?

Jezza: I condemn all bombing

Interviewer: But do you condemn the bombers ?

Jezza: I condemn all bombing

cont'd pg 192 ....

I think it's actually going the other way. Between 2010 and 2015 police budgets were cut by 18 per cent which saw a loss of 17,000 officers, 15,877 support staff and 4,587 police community support officers (PCSOs). The Met are saying they need to lose a further 4,000 officers.

Labours plan to recruit 10,000 new officers which will play well the the electorate. In a bizarre way Abbott's car crash interview will at least have got this message home, even if she doesn't know what it will cost.

Jalapeno

Nah. Dirty politics will out - this will get hung around Jezza's neck 

Fretwired

Jalapeno said:

Nah. Dirty politics will out - this will get hung around Jezza's neck 

I don't think so ... there's a chance May has already lost. Watch what happens when Labour talk about more policemen on the streets to fight terror and crime - this is prime Tory territory on which they've screwed up. Police numbers down whilst crime is up and May was Home Secretary in charge of the cuts. Reading the Times today won't make pretty reading for May.

Corbyn has faced accusations in the press of being an IRA sympathiser. His poll ratings have gone up. It's not working. Labour's core policies are popular - people didn't like Corbyn. That's changing the more they see him. May was seen as a safe pair of hands .. that's changing. She was stuffed by the press yesterday over the 'Dementia Tax' and was unconvincing on the BBC with Andrew Neil .. she said 'strong economy' so many times, dodged answering the questions and attacked Corbyn. Very poor.

She obviously learned nothing from Thatcher's Poll Tax fiasco.

Heartfeltdawn

Skipped said:

If I may say so.....that is a fantastic point that has been missed by some of the media coverage.
The Tories have put all of their eggs in one basket.Much of the merchandising emphasises May and airbrushes away "Tories".

If Andrew Neil was in the right mood (this afternoon) he could blow her away in the interview which will be shown at 7pm tonight.
The problem is.....I think he knows that. I think he will have seen her this morning not looking strong and stable and I think he will pull back. Just enough. 

The Conservative campaign has been quite Presidential in style but even those will eventually pull in a Vice President who plays an active role (Joe Biden being a good example). This has been a real solo trip with no clear deputy and even more unusually no clear supporters and power base beyond the people behind the manifesto from the Policy Unit. 

Heartfeltdawn

Drew_TNBD said:

I'm wavering in my resolve to not vote labour or greens.

I'm voting Labour. Bristol East is a strong Labour area, it's a striaght Lab-Cons fight, and the Conservative candidate is a posh lass who spends most of her time living in a wealthy part of London who only comes up here for General Elections. Jacob Rees-Mogg is her godfather and her electoral address is a cottage in the countryside that he owns. By contrast, Kerry McCarthy actually gets involved in the city and has done a decent job representing her constituents. Technically I've already voted as my postal ballot came the other day and is signed and sealed, ready for me to drop into a brown envelope come June 8th when I get to spend another 16 hour day oiling the democratic wheels as a poll clerk

Fretwired

Heartfeltdawn said:

The Conservative campaign has been quite Presidential in style but even those will eventually pull in a Vice President who plays an active role (Joe Biden being a good example). This has been a real solo trip with no clear deputy and even more unusually no clear supporters and power base beyond the people behind the manifesto from the Policy Unit. 

You are right. She kept saying 'me and my party' and it was all about her. She'll have to send out Boris and get Farage on side as UKIP seem to be on the up as voters desert the Tories.

Budgie

Boris was out and about yesterday in Cornwall and took a roasting from a  chap in St. Ives. He basically fled the scene. It's not going very well for them at all at the moment.

http://www.cornwalllive.com/watch-boris-johnson-and-derek-thomas-confronted-by-angry-heckler-in-st-ives-over-brexit-promises/story-30347045-detail/story.html

 I think Fret is right, cuts to the Police is clearly going to be another wedge. It's sad to make capital from the atrocity in Manchester though and I hope this doesn't happen.

Axe_meister

The problem is, cuts have been made left right and center, yet we still have a deficit. So if Labour get in, spend all the money they promise to then we get hit by a massive Brexit bill, just the admin/rebranding and legal bills will run into the billions. If I where in opposition I'd wait until the massive fall out from Brexit and then hail myself as the savior. 
If Labour get in they will be out in 2022.

ICBM

Fretwired said:

Labour's core policies are popular - people didn't like Corbyn. That's changing the more they see him.

I've said this from the very beginning. When people actually listen to what Corbyn has to say - as opposed to what the media portray him as saying - he comes across as rational and sensible, and a lot of his policies resonate with ordinary people.

He's not a forceful leader, no - but I think people are getting fed up with that sort of politics, and would actually prefer someone who seems to think before he speaks and doesn't just regurgitate the same soundbites.

Perhaps it's not too late to actually make a change.

fields5069

Corbyn is one of the few leaders I've seen who looks like he hasn't had any desperate body language coaching / silly crescendo training. Some of us, hopefully most on here, can look past that and listen to the words.

Heartfeltdawn

Fretwired said:

You are right. She kept saying 'me and my party' and it was all about her. She'll have to send out Boris and get Farage on side as UKIP seem to be on the up as voters desert the Tories.

Page 9 of the current issue of Private Eye:

http://i.imgur.com/WqXjOaA.jpg

Now in the political debates on here, it's frequently reminded how we elect a party to office and not a leader. This isn't how the Conservatives playbook has been and ironically the decision by many Labour areas to distance themselves from Corbyn on promotional material has made them look like more of a party than the promo material from the Conservatives has.

There was much criticism in the past of Cameron and the Notting Hill group. This article from July 2016 by Kate Maltby is a hoot. Hark how it tears into the Notting Hillites! Oh, that small group of individuals! Yes, Theresa May will change all of that!

And change she did...initially. 

Since then, we've had a snap election called which fuck all people knew about (as demonstrated by the outdated nature of the party candidate lists). We've had a party manifesto published that the overwhelming majority of her ministers knew nothing about, a manifesto written predominantly by two individuals in her policy unit (so a small group of huge influence... erm, not like the Notting Hill lot at all then). She goes on campaign walkabouts where she turns up at places featuring a restricted press and where the audiences tend to be Conservative members. 

If the Notting Hill circle was hard to penetrate for outsiders who weren't in that scene, then the Theresa May circle is hard to penetrate because there's fuck all people there beyond May, her policy unit, and Lynton Crosby. Her current Chancellor is tipped for the scrapheap, her Foreign Secretary is finally beginning to look incompetent rather than a jovial buffoon who gets things done, her Home Secretary is definitely not on good terms with May, her Justice Secretary is hot for the axe... her main ally is Damian Green, in no way a heavy hitter. 

With the way she has been over the last few months, this article imploring her not to micro-manage things seems very appropriate. 

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/theresa-may-pm-tory-control-freak-who-needs-to-let-go-to-succeed-a7139211.html

A control freak in charge of a party that has pushed the "I" message. Zing!
 

Fretwired

I think the Tory strategists wanted to focus on May as they saw an easy win in terms of who would make the most credible leader - at the start May was far out in front but everything is unravelling. May is looking less like a PM and Corbyn is sticking to policies. It's like the fable the tortoise and the hare ... some commentators are predicting a tiny Tory majority unless things change. If that's the case what's the betting May will be gone soon after.

Snap

Have to say, she has been very poor over the last few days. My opinion of her has changed. She looks anything but "strong and stable". However, I'd have her as PM rather than Corbyn. I do think a Labour gvt would be very very bad news for the UK. Behind the ideology and socialist posturing, there is very little substance, just a wish list.