Sell Tesla?

RandallFlagg

Tesla's stock price is still higher than when you first called to sell in July 2020.  The time to sell was Nov 5th 2021...

Hindsight and magic crystal balls are a wonderful thing.

Never mind the stock price yesterday or today, I'm more interested in what the long term future for Tesla is, what do the company financials and projections look like?

Do you reckon they will be still around in 10-15 years or will they become the Blackberry of the EV world?

Will we actually have the conviction to carry on transitioning from ICE cars or will we row back as we have with the use of coal to produce electricity?

goldtop

^ As soon as Musk is gone from Tesla, the fanboi-ponzi scheme stops, and the only people buying will be those who buy/hold/sell on merit. So ... (shrug)

ToneControl

RandallFlagg said:

Tesla's stock price is still higher than when you first called to sell in July 2020.  The time to sell was Nov 5th 2021...

Hindsight and magic crystal balls are a wonderful thing.

Never mind the stock price yesterday or today, I'm more interested in what the long term future for Tesla is, what do the company financials and projections look like?

Do you reckon they will be still around in 10-15 years or will they become the Blackberry of the EV world?

I just said it was over-valued
the stock price was way in excess of any likely future profits
that doesn't mean that it was too late to get a bit of ponzi-scheme tulip-bulb action and make a profit 

RandallFlagg

goldtop said:

^ As soon as Musk is gone from Tesla, the fanboi-ponzi scheme stops, and the only people buying will be those who buy/hold/sell on merit. So ... (shrug)

I agree Tesla stock has been subject to cult hype with the price driven up by mania but unlike FTX, Tesla do actually make a product and have invested in actual global production facilities so I think the Ponzi scheme reference is a little disingenuous 

euan

What about selling a product called Full Self Driving, that isn’t in any way capable of fully self driving?

RandallFlagg

@ToneControl what's your thoughts on the last year and for 2023 with regards your investment journey?

As I look back and consider where to direct new money for 2023, on reflection, It's been a very challenging year for investors, with the one in a hundred year bonds market crash, decimating many "safe" high bond content funds, with those bonds elements unlikely to recover for 5-10 years or so.

REITs have been hard hit, stocks are down globally with only really the FTSE 100 barely keeping its chin just above the water line, due to the surge in the energy stocks it holds. Commodities have held up well. UK investors in US funds protected from the full effect of the downside by the fall in the pound, but still down. UK high dividend stocks have probably paid out well though.

Should have been some opportunities for traders amongth the carnage I would have thought?

I think 2023 may be equally choppy, I don't think this bear market is anywhere near over yet, there needs to be blood on the streets, despair and complete capitulation first...so, if that is to come, then I will be buying stock fund units at even lower prices.

ToneControl

RandallFlagg said:

@ToneControl what's your thoughts on the last year and for 2023 with regards your investment journey?

As I look back and consider where to direct new money for 2023, on reflection, It's been a very challenging year for investors, with the one in a hundred year bonds market crash, decimating many "safe" high bond content funds, with those bonds elements unlikely to recover for 5-10 years or so.

REITs have been hard hit, stocks are down globally with only really the FTSE 100 barely keeping its chin just above the water line, due to the surge in the energy stocks it holds. Commodities have held up well. UK investors in US funds protected from the full effect of the downside by the fall in the pound, but still down. UK high dividend stocks have probably paid out well though.

Should have been some opportunities for traders amongth the carnage I would have thought?

I think 2023 may be equally choppy, I don't think this bear market is anywhere near over yet, there needs to be blood on the streets, despair and complete capitulation first...so, if that is to come, then I will be buying stock fund units at even lower prices.

"my mate" still makes loads of money going long and more frequently short on the S+P500.
I have a day job, so am avoiding that at present, since it needs attention through the trading hours

On my shares in my SIPP I was down about 5% then up about 1%, my mate said sell, and I didn't so now  about 5% down again, so not a bad place for me really. We're basically looking for undervalued stocks with manageable debts in the light of interest rate hikes. Looking for firms with few short term debts,
I've invested quite a bit in low LTV REITs that are undervalued 

CavemanGrogg

ToneControl said:

RandallFlagg said:

@ToneControl what's your thoughts on the last year and for 2023 with regards your investment journey?

As I look back and consider where to direct new money for 2023, on reflection, It's been a very challenging year for investors, with the one in a hundred year bonds market crash, decimating many "safe" high bond content funds, with those bonds elements unlikely to recover for 5-10 years or so.

REITs have been hard hit, stocks are down globally with only really the FTSE 100 barely keeping its chin just above the water line, due to the surge in the energy stocks it holds. Commodities have held up well. UK investors in US funds protected from the full effect of the downside by the fall in the pound, but still down. UK high dividend stocks have probably paid out well though.

Should have been some opportunities for traders amongth the carnage I would have thought?

I think 2023 may be equally choppy, I don't think this bear market is anywhere near over yet, there needs to be blood on the streets, despair and complete capitulation first...so, if that is to come, then I will be buying stock fund units at even lower prices.

"my mate" still makes loads of money going long and more frequently short on the S+P500.
I have a day job, so am avoiding that at present, since it needs attention through the trading hours

On my shares in my SIPP I was down about 5% then up about 1%, my mate said sell, and I didn't so now  about 5% down again, so not a bad place for me really. We're basically looking for undervalued stocks with manageable debts in the light of interest rate hikes. Looking for firms with few short term debts,
I've invested quite a bit in low LTV REITs that are undervalued 

I pick individual stocks, though since the Lego as an investment thread have also invested into an index fund, and I'm up a hair under 15% for my portfolio minus the fund, which I'm tracking separately as I'm comparing it to Lego and various forms of gold - physical coin bullion, physical bars, ETF, and what's known as ''digital gold'', and that fund is down less than 4% - in fact it's closer to 3% down.

And I am a dividend investor, as in I invest for dividends, not just for the potential for the stock value to increase, but also how much they pay out in dividends.

RandallFlagg said:

@ToneControl what's your thoughts on the last year and for 2023 with regards your investment journey?

As I look back and consider where to direct new money for 2023, on reflection, It's been a very challenging year for investors, with the one in a hundred year bonds market crash, decimating many "safe" high bond content funds, with those bonds elements unlikely to recover for 5-10 years or so.

REITs have been hard hit, stocks are down globally with only really the FTSE 100 barely keeping its chin just above the water line, due to the surge in the energy stocks it holds. Commodities have held up well. UK investors in US funds protected from the full effect of the downside by the fall in the pound, but still down. UK high dividend stocks have probably paid out well though.

Should have been some opportunities for traders amongth the carnage I would have thought?

I think 2023 may be equally choppy, I don't think this bear market is anywhere near over yet, there needs to be blood on the streets, despair and complete capitulation first...so, if that is to come, then I will be buying stock fund units at even lower prices.

I have to disagree with this based off of my own portfolio, granted I'm not a ''activist investor'' nor an ''ethical investor'', so I have invested in a lot of sins, and I pick stocks, I've taken a punt on a index fund, purely to get real world numbers for comparing Lego to an index fund, and gold, and as I mention above, my portfolio - without the index fund, is up close to 15%, that's inflation beating.

ToneControl

just for fun, not intended as pertinent to this debate

https://metro.co.uk/video/huge-line-teslas-queue-electric-charging-point-south-mimms-services-2844577/

CavemanGrogg

ToneControl said:

just for fun, not intended as pertinent to this debate

https://metro.co.uk/video/huge-line-teslas-queue-electric-charging-point-south-mimms-services-2844577/

I saw that, we had temps as low as -18.3 degrees C here last week, the few people in the village who have EVs couldn't charge them full stop it was that cold for the batteries for those days

ToneControl

CavemanGrogg said:

ToneControl said:

just for fun, not intended as pertinent to this debate

https://metro.co.uk/video/huge-line-teslas-queue-electric-charging-point-south-mimms-services-2844577/

I saw that, we had temps as low as -18.3 degrees C here last week, the few people in the village who have EVs couldn't charge them full stop it was that cold for the batteries for those days

Watch: Sprawling queues of Teslas await charging outside Tebay services in Penrith | Metro Video

I hadn't realised the cold would cause this much trouble
Why don't they have heaters on the battery packs?

CavemanGrogg

ToneControl said:

CavemanGrogg said:

ToneControl said:

just for fun, not intended as pertinent to this debate

https://metro.co.uk/video/huge-line-teslas-queue-electric-charging-point-south-mimms-services-2844577/

I saw that, we had temps as low as -18.3 degrees C here last week, the few people in the village who have EVs couldn't charge them full stop it was that cold for the batteries for those days

Watch: Sprawling queues of Teslas await charging outside Tebay services in Penrith | Metro Video

I hadn't realised the cold would cause this much trouble
Why don't they have heaters on the battery packs?

What would you power the heater with on an EV?  It was seriously impressive, and painfully cold, when I was told about it - a couple who live close to me have a Tesla and couldn't charge it due to the cold, I didn't believe it, so ran an extension cable out the kitchen window, and tried to charge my iPad mini in the garden, and a message came up on the screen telling me that charging would resume once the battery had warmed up. 

They lose over 50% of their range in the cold, and that's before you put any heating on, which again reduces the range as that takes power that would normally power the engine, to power the heater instead, and heaters in EVs are nowhere near as ''efficient'' as they are on ICE vehicles, which can and do make use of the heat generated by an ICE for heating.

I think EVs are going to turn out to be a far far bigger scandal than the green diesel cars and emissions fixing scandals, there is just simply no way that they can be less harmful for the environment.  Multi level car parks are currently panicking, and being reinforced to handle all the extra weight of EVs compared to ICE vehicles, that's a lot of tyre wear compared to the same size ICE vehicle, and that's before you look at the materials needed to make them, and how they're mined - I don't mean via child labour and slavery but the actual mining process for cobalt, lithium and other materials needed to make batteries and the quantities.  Or how the electricity to charge them is generated, stored and transported. 

This is why I haven't invested in Tesla - besides that it doesn't pay dividends, I don't just think it's hugely over valued, but that EVs are also a fad technology, especially given battery limitations, and the strain so many EVs would put on infrastructure.

ToneControl

CavemanGrogg said:

ToneControl said:

CavemanGrogg said:

ToneControl said:

just for fun, not intended as pertinent to this debate

https://metro.co.uk/video/huge-line-teslas-queue-electric-charging-point-south-mimms-services-2844577/

I saw that, we had temps as low as -18.3 degrees C here last week, the few people in the village who have EVs couldn't charge them full stop it was that cold for the batteries for those days

Watch: Sprawling queues of Teslas await charging outside Tebay services in Penrith | Metro Video

I hadn't realised the cold would cause this much trouble
Why don't they have heaters on the battery packs?

What would you power the heater with on an EV?  It was seriously impressive, and painfully cold, when I was told about it - a couple who live close to me have a Tesla and couldn't charge it due to the cold, I didn't believe it, so ran an extension cable out the kitchen window, and tried to charge my iPad mini in the garden, and a message came up on the screen telling me that charging would resume once the battery had warmed up. 

They lose over 50% of their range in the cold, and that's before you put any heating on, which again reduces the range as that takes power that would normally power the engine, to power the heater instead, and heaters in EVs are nowhere near as ''efficient'' as they are on ICE vehicles, which can and do make use of the heat generated by an ICE for heating.

I think EVs are going to turn out to be a far far bigger scandal than the green diesel cars and emissions fixing scandals, there is just simply no way that they can be less harmful for the environment.  Multi level car parks are currently panicking, and being reinforced to handle all the extra weight of EVs compared to ICE vehicles, that's a lot of tyre wear compared to the same size ICE vehicle, and that's before you look at the materials needed to make them, and how they're mined - I don't mean via child labour and slavery but the actual mining process for cobalt, lithium and other materials needed to make batteries and the quantities.  Or how the electricity to charge them is generated, stored and transported. 

This is why I haven't invested in Tesla - besides that it doesn't pay dividends, I don't just think it's hugely over valued, but that EVs are also a fad technology, especially given battery limitations, and the strain so many EVs would put on infrastructure.

you may find this interesting
it's been out for a year or so now

https://www.jcb.com/en-gb/campaigns/hydrogen

basically can handle longer and harder usage cycles than EV

RaymondLin

I first realised cold + battery = doom about 7 years ago when I went to Sweden in the middle of winter and noticed my iPhone battery loses about half of it's capacity.  It literally goes from normal to 50% in regular time frame, then suddenly drops to 10% and then dies in another 2 mins. 

And that is with the phone in my jeans pocket with some body heat transfer.  So I imagine a EV with say 300 miles range to have maximum 50% of that in the depth of winter when it's below 0c.

That is just not going to work since the behaviour of the battery too would be out of character, it hits a wall and plummets, rather than it's normal (close to) linear curve in use so you might find youself in trouble all of the sudden thinking you have like 50% left when it would stops working.

CavemanGrogg

ToneControl said:

CavemanGrogg said:

ToneControl said:

CavemanGrogg said:

ToneControl said:

just for fun, not intended as pertinent to this debate

https://metro.co.uk/video/huge-line-teslas-queue-electric-charging-point-south-mimms-services-2844577/

I saw that, we had temps as low as -18.3 degrees C here last week, the few people in the village who have EVs couldn't charge them full stop it was that cold for the batteries for those days

Watch: Sprawling queues of Teslas await charging outside Tebay services in Penrith | Metro Video

I hadn't realised the cold would cause this much trouble
Why don't they have heaters on the battery packs?

What would you power the heater with on an EV?  It was seriously impressive, and painfully cold, when I was told about it - a couple who live close to me have a Tesla and couldn't charge it due to the cold, I didn't believe it, so ran an extension cable out the kitchen window, and tried to charge my iPad mini in the garden, and a message came up on the screen telling me that charging would resume once the battery had warmed up. 

They lose over 50% of their range in the cold, and that's before you put any heating on, which again reduces the range as that takes power that would normally power the engine, to power the heater instead, and heaters in EVs are nowhere near as ''efficient'' as they are on ICE vehicles, which can and do make use of the heat generated by an ICE for heating.

I think EVs are going to turn out to be a far far bigger scandal than the green diesel cars and emissions fixing scandals, there is just simply no way that they can be less harmful for the environment.  Multi level car parks are currently panicking, and being reinforced to handle all the extra weight of EVs compared to ICE vehicles, that's a lot of tyre wear compared to the same size ICE vehicle, and that's before you look at the materials needed to make them, and how they're mined - I don't mean via child labour and slavery but the actual mining process for cobalt, lithium and other materials needed to make batteries and the quantities.  Or how the electricity to charge them is generated, stored and transported. 

This is why I haven't invested in Tesla - besides that it doesn't pay dividends, I don't just think it's hugely over valued, but that EVs are also a fad technology, especially given battery limitations, and the strain so many EVs would put on infrastructure.

you may find this interesting
it's been out for a year or so now

https://www.jcb.com/en-gb/campaigns/hydrogen

basically can handle longer and harder usage cycles than EV

Hydrogen is what I'm betting on - I believe there's a long haul test flight using hydrogen happening very soon, if not lpg, which is already in use and current ICE can be converted to very easily.  I believe the king has a hydrogen powered car, he was promoting a company that's doing R&D and building them, not so long before the queen's death, can't remember the company's name, but it's British, and the car he was filmed in front of and taking for a spin was a dark blue colour.

victorludorum

Don't you need electricity to produce hydrogen?

stickyfiddle

I'm not convinced by hydrogen for passenger cars. To get green hydrogen (the only type that matters), you need clean energy and pure water. Right now that generally means solar power and desalinated water. While solar PV has got exponentially cheaper over the last decade, those savings are already rolled up into the current costs of hydrogen, and when you account for that, plus the cost & weight of the compression tanks etc you need to carry in your car the economics don't currently add up, and have no obvious path to get 50-75% cheaper. Advancements in battery tech are more likely and should have a greater impact. 

Where hydrogen is likely to be really good is in shipping (in the form of ammonia) and aviation (by via man-made hydrocarbons).

And as for heaters on batteries, some Teslas have them..!

goldtop

CavemanGrogg said:

ToneControl said:

CavemanGrogg said:

ToneControl said:

just for fun, not intended as pertinent to this debate

https://metro.co.uk/video/huge-line-teslas-queue-electric-charging-point-south-mimms-services-2844577/

I saw that, we had temps as low as -18.3 degrees C here last week, the few people in the village who have EVs couldn't charge them full stop it was that cold for the batteries for those days

Watch: Sprawling queues of Teslas await charging outside Tebay services in Penrith | Metro Video

I hadn't realised the cold would cause this much trouble
Why don't they have heaters on the battery packs?

What would you power the heater with on an EV?  It was seriously impressive, and painfully cold, when I was told about it - a couple who live close to me have a Tesla and couldn't charge it due to the cold, I didn't believe it, so ran an extension cable out the kitchen window, and tried to charge my iPad mini in the garden, and a message came up on the screen telling me that charging would resume once the battery had warmed up. 

They lose over 50% of their range in the cold, and that's before you put any heating on, which again reduces the range as that takes power that would normally power the engine, to power the heater instead, and heaters in EVs are nowhere near as ''efficient'' as they are on ICE vehicles, which can and do make use of the heat generated by an ICE for heating.

I think EVs are going to turn out to be a far far bigger scandal than the green diesel cars and emissions fixing scandals, there is just simply no way that they can be less harmful for the environment.  Multi level car parks are currently panicking, and being reinforced to handle all the extra weight of EVs compared to ICE vehicles, that's a lot of tyre wear compared to the same size ICE vehicle, and that's before you look at the materials needed to make them, and how they're mined - I don't mean via child labour and slavery but the actual mining process for cobalt, lithium and other materials needed to make batteries and the quantities.  Or how the electricity to charge them is generated, stored and transported. 

This is why I haven't invested in Tesla - besides that it doesn't pay dividends, I don't just think it's hugely over valued, but that EVs are also a fad technology, especially given battery limitations, and the strain so many EVs would put on infrastructure.

There's soo much FUD and lies in there it's hard to know where to start. Maybe check Bjorn Nyland's Youtube channel for the actual truth about running an EV in the cold (Norway).

My humble EV has a battery warming system for (very) cold weather (still not been needed) and has a range of about 160 miles in the cold vs 200 miles in Summer. 

RandallFlagg

ToneControl said:

RandallFlagg said:

@ToneControl what's your thoughts on the last year and for 2023 with regards your investment journey?

As I look back and consider where to direct new money for 2023, on reflection, It's been a very challenging year for investors, with the one in a hundred year bonds market crash, decimating many "safe" high bond content funds, with those bonds elements unlikely to recover for 5-10 years or so.

REITs have been hard hit, stocks are down globally with only really the FTSE 100 barely keeping its chin just above the water line, due to the surge in the energy stocks it holds. Commodities have held up well. UK investors in US funds protected from the full effect of the downside by the fall in the pound, but still down. UK high dividend stocks have probably paid out well though.

Should have been some opportunities for traders amongth the carnage I would have thought?

I think 2023 may be equally choppy, I don't think this bear market is anywhere near over yet, there needs to be blood on the streets, despair and complete capitulation first...so, if that is to come, then I will be buying stock fund units at even lower prices.

"my mate" still makes loads of money going long and more frequently short on the S+P500.
I have a day job, so am avoiding that at present, since it needs attention through the trading hours

On my shares in my SIPP I was down about 5% then up about 1%, my mate said sell, and I didn't so now  about 5% down again, so not a bad place for me really. We're basically looking for undervalued stocks with manageable debts in the light of interest rate hikes. Looking for firms with few short term debts,
I've invested quite a bit in low LTV REITs that are undervalued 

Sounds like you are weathering the storm OK.

goldtop

From Norway, actual facts: https://www.naf.no/elbil/aktuelt/elbiltest/ev-winter-range-test-2020/

TLDR - on average, Winter range (Norwegian conditions) is 82% of Summer range. Can be as high as 90% or as low as 70%.