Sell Tesla?

PVO_Dave

goldtop said:

From Norway, actual facts: https://www.naf.no/elbil/aktuelt/elbiltest/ev-winter-range-test-2020/

TLDR - on average, Winter range (Norwegian conditions) is 82% of Summer range. Can be as high as 90% or as low as 70%.

Yep - When I have to do the office run, in the winter my 35 mile-ish journey costs me around 1-2% more battery than in the summer. The range in the Model 3 P I'm giving back soon goes from around 280 miles in the summer to 250-260 in the winter, which is more than enough for most journeys. My new Model Y P comes with a heat pump, so I'm expecting similar miles as the Model 3, due to the weight / height difference, will be interesting to see though.  

To those regurgitating "facts" (AKA FUD) they've seen online, I'd advise not gambling your money on stocks when you can't do some simple online research to discern fact from fiction  

For what it's worth, South Mimms and Tebay are a bit of a nightmare at the best of times at the moment, quicker rollout of Superchargers and other third parties is needed asap, the same issue was had for anyone with an EV trying to charge as busy traffic stops, more Tesla's queuing as more of them on the road at the moment. 

Not a Tesla shareholder btw. 

euan

Where in the country are you? Is the car garaged overnight or when at work? Is it kept on charge at night?

It’s likely someone who lives in a flat without the ability to charge over night…and keep the battery warm will experience a much different usage.  

PVO_Dave

euan said:

Where in the country are you? Is the car garaged overnight or when at work? Is it kept on charge at night?

It’s likely someone who lives in a flat without the ability to charge over night…and keep the battery warm will experience a much different usage.  

Bedfordshire, not garaged and only plugged in at home when I need to charge. It does go in an underground carpark when at work, but I get the almost same battery usage on the return journey, I just don't lose any charge preheating, as I do charge at work because it's free and it'd be daft not to. 

I've had this particular car for 3.5 years, quite used to it's usage by now. This is based on a non heat pump model, I'm expecting the same / better from my bigger, newer car given the heat pump and Tesla's Octovalve (which scavenges heat from the battery and motors). 

goldtop

euan said:

Where in the country are you? Is the car garaged overnight or when at work? Is it kept on charge at night?

It’s likely someone who lives in a flat without the ability to charge over night…and keep the battery warm will experience a much different usage.  

Mine is left out overnight and only ever charged during the daytime, when I am at work. Even during the cold-snap here (about -9C here, I think), the car's BMS did not need to use its battery care routine, wherein it uses a small current to keep the battery pack warmer than ambient.

BMSs keep getting better and better. Read the Norwegian experience. An on-topic Tesla 3 example (-20C):

RandallFlagg

Necro bump.

Just revisiting the opening posts original doom laden premise from Bernstein’s Toni Sacconaghi to sell Tesla stock in July 2020

Price was $80.58 on 2nd July 2020 and is now $245.01. That's a 204% gain, or 3 x your money if you had Tesla stock and held on, ignoring the bearish doomsters.

However, the share prices has remained volatile and has effectively gone sideways since end of 2020 but has never been lower that the July 2020 price at any time since.

If you hold Tesla stock in September 2023 do you hold or sell?

BTW the new Tesla model 3 midlife upgrade looks like a few nice touches:

roberty

I'm not buying Tesla but I am DCA'ing back into risk assets

RandallFlagg

roberty said:

I'm not buying Tesla but I am DCA'ing back into risk assets

I've never been out of risk assets or US stocks. I only hold Tesla within index funds and it's about 1.9% of my overall portfolio. Apple is my biggest holding at around 10%

ArchtopDave

Me neither. I've lived long enough to have lived through quite a few Bear Markets. You just have to grit your teeth, and wait to come out the other side.
 My philosophy these days, is that if you have spare cash, then you can buy investments more cheaply than you would otherwise be able to do. 
My investments are in a variety of Funds, so, via these, I do have exposure to Tesla, Nvidia, and Apple amongst many other companies. Mr.Buffett has been doing nicely for me this year. 

RandallFlagg

ArchtopDave said:

Me neither. I've lived long enough to have lived through quite a few Bear Markets. You just have to grit your teeth.

My investments are in a variety of Funds, so, via these, I do have exposure to Tesla, Nvidia, and Apple amongst many other companies. Mr.Buffett has been doing nicely for me this year. 

Do you hold Berkshire Hathaway directly? 

fastonebaz

The Tesla models are:

S  3  X  Y

Funny marketing idea. 

ArchtopDave

RandallFlagg said:

ArchtopDave said:

Me neither. I've lived long enough to have lived through quite a few Bear Markets. You just have to grit your teeth.

My investments are in a variety of Funds, so, via these, I do have exposure to Tesla, Nvidia, and Apple amongst many other companies. Mr.Buffett has been doing nicely for me this year. 

Do you hold Berkshire Hathaway directly? 

Yes. You have to fill out a W-8BEN form in order to be able to invest directly in USA companies. I kick myself, because I've known about Warren Buffett for several decades, but I only invested in Berkshire Hathaway relatively recently. 

RandallFlagg

ArchtopDave said:

RandallFlagg said:

ArchtopDave said:

Me neither. I've lived long enough to have lived through quite a few Bear Markets. You just have to grit your teeth.

My investments are in a variety of Funds, so, via these, I do have exposure to Tesla, Nvidia, and Apple amongst many other companies. Mr.Buffett has been doing nicely for me this year. 

Do you hold Berkshire Hathaway directly? 

Yes. You have to fill out a W-8BEN form in order to be able to invest directly in USA companies. I kick myself, because I've known about Warren Buffett for several decades, but I only invested in Berkshire Hathaway relatively recently. 

Nice one. I've been toying with buying some Berkshire class B, moving some money from a US index fund, not really got into the details of how I would go about it yet.

Something I wonder is how Berkshire will perform when Warren Buffet & Charlie Munger pass, will Greg Abel steer the ship with the same instincts and insight?

I'm sure many BH shareholders wonder this as well. He's only been on the Berkshire board since 2018, that's not even a single economic cycle. Would he spend aggressively buying companies amid a major downturn such as 2008?

goldtop

After spending some time in Musk's Twitter feed and reading the responses, I am pretty convinced there's a huge fanboi element to smaller shareholding in Tesla. I can't see that surviving forever. Maybe he can create a too-big-to-fail situation.

Meanwhile, Cybertruck appears to be difficult to manufacture due to the required tolerances for straight edges.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/24/elon-musk-memo-on-cybertruck-manufacturing-challenges.html

Musk's email:

From: Elon Musk

To: Everybody

Date: August 23, 2023 [time stamp removed]

Subj. Cybertruck Precision

Due to the nature of Cybertruck, which is made of bright metal with mostly straight edges, any dimensional variation shows up like a sore thumb.

All parts for this vehicle, whether internal or from suppliers, need to be designed and built to sub 10 micron accuracy.

That means all part dimensions need to be to the third decimal place in millimeters and tolerances need be specified in single digit microns.

If LEGO and soda cans, which are very low cost, can do this, so can we.

Precision predicates perfectionism.

Elon

Nitefly

Lego? To sub 10 micron? Riiiiight,,,,

goldtop

And Lego is most definitely not low cost!

FX_Munkee

Pressed steel panels and moulded plastics at  <10 micron tolerances? Someone needs to explain manufacturing processes to Elon I think. Alternatively they just do it and each one costs something north of $X million with > 95% of the manufactured parts going in the bin.

stickyfiddle

I probably have a tiny bit of exposure to Tesla via tech funds but I won't ever choose to buy directly into anything Musk is involved in. He's an idiot man-child and Teslas aren't even very good. 

The Cybertruck project has been hilarious from start to finish and I can only assume the customers will be almost entirely edgelord fanboys. 

ElectricXII

I wouldn't give Leon Skum a penny. I'll continue running my 14 year old E-Class estate and invest carefully elsewhere.

ArchtopDave

Came across this Quote from Warren Buffett a few days ago. No idea whether it's new, or old, but you do have to love his way of thinking, and the way he expresses himself at times.

"You cannot produce a baby in one month by getting nine women pregnant."  

ToneControl

ArchtopDave said:

Came across this Quote from Warren Buffett a few days ago. No idea whether it's new, or old, but you do have to love his way of thinking, and the way he expresses himself at times.

"You cannot produce a baby in one month by getting nine women pregnant."  

the old version decades ago was "9 women can’t make a baby in a month"