So, 4 days on, were Remain scaremongering or not?

Clarky

Money will dictate all of the terms to those that negotiate the UK's exit.

simply because there is so much of it at stake… many many billions

This being the case, what I think the Leave voters will win for the UK is:

- the UK retains free trade with the EU

- the UK will have to pay pretty much what it pays today for free trade

- the UK will have to continue with the free movement of people [cos the EU will make it a condition]

- the UK will sign up to anything to prevent very valuable businesses of all kinds leaving the UK and setting up shop somewhere like Paris, Berlin, Dublin etc]

- the UK will have to comply with EU standards and laws to do business [which it does already]

so what's the difference then??

- the UK has left the EU and so no longer has a voice in any of the decision making [because leaving the EU is what the people wanted]

- the UK no longer gets money back or EU funding for rejuvenation projects etc

so… I reckon everything will remain pretty much exactly the same because the UK needs to continue making piles of money and the guys running the Leave campaign made promises they could never keep..

and better, because I doubt they expected to win and so never expected to have to keep them..

having accidentally won, they have been truly bitten in the ass..

and the Leave voters will find out that with almost everything being almost exactly the same, the only achievement is to weaken the UK's bargaining power with and within the EU cos it no longer has a voice at all within it…

my lil' brain trying to be pragmatic is thinking; this being the case... fk it, ignore the result, piss off a few million people for a while and just stay in, don't lose anything and try to return to some sort of stability asap..

but that's undemocratic and not an easy option either

EDIT: this is not a snipe at the Leave voters at all.. it's just how I think things will turn out

I expect the Leave voters will to some degree feel quite cheated when all this is finally sorted out

cheated by the govt for not getting what they voted for

cheated by the Leave campaigners for making promises that are not really possible to keep without harming the UK in a whole host of ways..

Chalky

Serious lack of vision there.

TheBigDipper

Don't lose sight of the Parliamentary democracy vs Direct democracy aspect of this thread. The UK IS a Parliamentary democracy, whether we like the implications of that or not. If they're doing their jobs properly, MPs should represent us and act in our best interests rather than be our delegates doing what we tell them to do. If what we tell them to do is not in our best interests (in their opinion) then they shouldn't do it. When we elect them, we're saying "Go do what you think is best for the next 5 years". 

The current Labour party kerfuffle is a great example of this. (I don't have any axe to grind one way or the other in this, BTW). 

On one hand, the grass roots membership want to support Corbyn as leader and think the Labour MPs are traitors to democracy. That's because they believe in direct democracy on this issue - even though they don't have it. The MPs, who never wanted Corbyn to be leader because they believe he cannot lead them or win an election, could say "We were elected in 2015 on an Ed Miliband manifesto by voters, not just the by a much smaller number of party members. We have a responsibility to all those voters, plus those in our constituencies that did not vote for us, to represent their support for that manifesto in their best interests for the life of this parliament". 

This won't be easily solved until the next general election, when the party membership may well deselect a lot of people (if they're still in the Labour party by then and haven't joined a centre-left alliance). I don't see the grass roots changing their minds. They're much more idealistic than those pesky, practical Tories who prefer to stay in power by pretending to love those colleagues that they actually hate. 

Back to Brexit:

Remain weren't scaremongering. There's still no clear view of what happens next. The unanswered question is "will we get through this and look back and say this was the right thing or not?". It's too early to tell. 

paulmapp8306

ICBM said:

Sporky said:

I can't speak for anyone else, but I suspect that there are plenty of remainers who want EU reform too.

You can speak for me too if you like. I know I'm probably one of the forum's most overtly pro-EU members, but being in favour of staying in doesn't mean I'm totally in favour of everything it does - far from it.

See, Im actually pro EU, but with reform.  I voted out becasue I cant see reform happening without something major happening.  This is something major.

I actually think Clarky is about right though. There are vast possibilities oin a world market that would probably outweigh the economics of staying in the EU -but its 10-15 years away.  No political party will want to weight 15 years for good to come - sa the general population arnt that patient.

I do think however we will get some compromise on free movement.  ITs the overwhelming reason most that voted out did so and is a big bargaining tool.   I think we will either get a cap (but no control of who actually comes within that cap) OR we will get free movement of workers and students - but no place at a body of learning or no job to come to and we can refuse entry.

While I think the long term possibilities are something worth going for - I would be reasonably happy with what was agreed pre-referendum plus the above movement compromise.  The French have already said free movement is no longer a red line - so there will be some pressure from inside to give a little on that.

 

viz

paulmapp8306 said:

See, Im actually pro EU, but with reform.  I voted out becasue I cant see reform happening without something major happening.  This is something major.

Yes. I think if there had been 3 questions:

1) Stay in the EU because you are completely happy with it
2) Stay in the EU but you are dissatisfied with the way it is
3) Leave the EU

We would have had 0:90:10. And that's the Brexit tragedy, that a huge majority of the UK, who are basically in favour of the EU (on both sides of the vote) are going to lose it.

paulmapp8306

RE the Labour party.  There is a problem here.

corbyn has the overwhelming support of grass roots.  He is very true to the original ideals of the party - which is rather left.  he will get voted back in as leader I think.  The problem is its not the grass roots labour party members - or even the staunch labour voters who arnt in the party - that you need to win over for power.  And Corbyn cant win those over he will need to.  The Labour MPs recognise this hence the current situation (most probably arnt in it for the ideals as such - but for power itself).

The choice at present is have a leader that represents your ideals, but who wont get in to acton them - or choose a compromise leader with a chance of getting in and a chance of enacting some of those ideals.

The problem I see, Is Corbyn staying in - then next election De-selecting 3/4 (or more) of his MPs, and replacing them with his own supporters.  That will end up with the Labour party being a dictatorship (just look how hes treated people who disagree with him) - meaning he has a credible (if scary) Party.   If at that point, there is a massive anti Conservative vote - regardless of what labour are standing for at the time - corbyns party could win an election.  At that point the Country is in deep doo doo.

ICBM

That won't happen. The Labour Party will split if there's any serious chance of it, and the more moderate half will form a new 'SDP' with probably a reasonable chance of electoral success.

The fixed-term parliaments become another advantage here because there's a guaranteed five years for them to get their act together.

Modulus_Amps

some interesting reading:

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/685431/Brussels-wake-up-call-EU-Turkey

https://www.rt.com/news/349231-austria-eu-turkey-hofer/

The Brexit vote is stirring up more than just the UK:

ICBM

Modulus_Amps said:

some interesting reading:

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/685431/Brussels-wake-up-call-EU-Turkey

https://www.rt.com/news/349231-austria-eu-turkey-hofer/

The Brexit vote is stirring up more than just the UK:

As the Remain side said it would...

I'd sooner believe Russia Today than the Daily Excess too.

Turkey is not joining the EU. My guess is that the EU is playing Turkey along quite intentionally in order to gain some control over the immigration issue, but if the Turks think that means joining is any closer then they are in for a nasty surprise. It only takes one EU member to say no, and there are several.

Sporky

paulmapp8306 said:

See, Im actually pro EU, but with reform.  I voted out becasue I cant see reform happening without something major happening.  This is something major.

Yup. My concern is that voting out may be the equivalent of entering a chicken race.

I do think however we will get some compromise on free movement.  ITs the overwhelming reason most that voted out did so and is a big bargaining tool.

Is it the overwhelming reason? Lots of leavers have said it's about not wanting further political integration. I think there are probably a lot of reasons on each side.

Clarky

Chalky said:

Serious lack of vision there.

I don't think it's a lack of vision

I just think it's the most likely outcome because the quantities of money to be made or lost are so huge that it will be the centre of gravity about which all decisions will be made

Handsome_Chris

To answer the question in the title, yes.

exocet

Handsome_Chris said:

To answer the question in the title, yes.

The truth is that we won't know until we initiate article 50 and then start to negotiate trade deals. I don't think we'll know until 3 - 5 years down the line. To be honest I'm not sure what success or failure will look like. If in 5 years our GDP is lower than that of France then I'd say Brexit was a failure.

paulmapp8306

I think its going to be nearer 15 years before we know fo sure.  Its not just negotiation the terms of exit - then negotiating new trade deals with the EU, Its negotiating deals with the rest of the world - having our businesses change there focus - ie away from Europe centric and more whole world encompassing.

If we try and stay the same (trade wise) as we have been - it will be a failure because we wont be grasping the potential.  There will be job losses in businesses that  trade mainly with the EU, and probably some in multi nationals who use us as a base to the EU- but opportunities will open up elsewhere.  Money always finds a way.

So - my guess we will be in a worse place than we are now in 5 years, as most of the negatives will have played out, but not many of the positives (economic wise) will have taken effect.  Then it will be another 5-10 years of getting better as those positives are seized.  

WE also will not know if staying would be different.  The might be the federal republic of Europe by then, or may have been had we not made the choice we have.   That choice may now have kicked the EU to change - so the future will be different that it would have been anyway.

Ask me in 2030 and Ill tell you if we made the correct choice.

lloyd

hungrymark said:

I don't like the argument that ICBM, Lloyd and Sporky are making here. It seems like a fiddle - trying to get the result you want on a technicality. Can you imagine the response if the government decided, post-election, that no shows should actually be considered votes for the incumbent? I mean, I voted tory and probably would if there was an election tomorrow, so it's no skin off my nose, but it seems a bit banana-republic-y. If people don't vote then that's their loss and I don't think you can make any assumptions about their sympathies. I nearly didn't vote because I couldn't make up my mind, but plumped for remain in the end. Right until the last day or two I would have voted leave though, and still think that that would have been a more accurate reflection of my views (I voted remain based on a very short-term outlook, wisely or not).

I'm not making any kind of argument either way, I'm just pointing out the facts/what the word minority means.

p90fool

I think it'll be easier to quantify the success or failure of Brexit over the next few years in economic terms, but those aren't the only measure of whether we made the right decision or not.

The EU is more than just a trading partnership, and sadly the UK has become a society where amongst ordinary workers the words "Freedom of Movement" and "Human Rights" have become dirty words.

The Great Unwashed need a fucking slap sometimes.

exocet

paulmapp8306;1135838" said:

I think its going to be nearer 15 years before we know fo sure.  Its not just negotiation the terms of exit - then negotiating new trade deals with the EU, Its negotiating deals with the rest of the world - having our businesses change there focus - ie away from Europe centric and more whole world encompassing.

If we try and stay the same (trade wise) as we have been - it will be a failure because we wont be grasping the potential.  There will be job losses in businesses that  trade mainly with the EU, and probably some in multi nationals who use us as a base to the EU- but opportunities will open up elsewhere.  Money always finds a way.

So - my guess we will be in a worse place than we are now in 5 years, as most of the negatives will have played out, but not many of the positives (economic wise) will have taken effect.  Then it will be another 5-10 years of getting better as those positives are seized.  

WE also will not know if staying would be different.  The might be the federal republic of Europe by then, or may have been had we not made the choice we have.   That choice may now have kicked the EU to change - so the future will be different that it would have been anyway.

Ask me in 2030 and Ill tell you if we made the correct choice.

To be honest with you, as a someone from the Remain camp, I think that your time lines are quite realistic but I was trying not to be too negative. A 15 year timeline for me represents failure (that's lost generation territory) and would only serve to justify why I thought that Brexit was a bad idea. Still, we'll see.

paulmapp8306

p90fool said:

I think it'll be easier to quantify the success or failure of Brexit over the next few years in economic terms, but those aren't the only measure of whether we made the right decision or not.

The EU is more than just a trading partnership, and sadly the UK has become a society where amongst ordinary workers the words "Freedom of Movement" and "Human Rights" have become dirty words.

The Great Unwashed need a fucking slap sometimes.

What the F has human rights got to do with anything.  Well have them in or out of the EU.

Freedom of movement is always a bad thing.  Its no coincidence that nowhere outside of the EU has it.  You need to control - to some extent - movement.  You cant plan services, or account for housing or anyting with no control at all.   Its bad enough with a known figure of people coming in - and birth figures (roughly).  

I dont mean that you should stop movement - thats bolocks as well - but it should be in a controlled way.  

ICBM

paulmapp8306 said:

p90fool said:

The EU is more than just a trading partnership, and sadly the UK has become a society where amongst ordinary workers the words "Freedom of Movement" and "Human Rights" have become dirty words.

What the F has human rights got to do with anything.  Well have them in or out of the EU.

Remember that Theresa May wanted the UK to leave the European Convention On Human Rights, and did even when we looked like staying in. She's apparently dropped the idea for the moment, presumably to make herself look more moderate and attractive as a leader.

But don't be surprised if she changes her mind again. In my opinion she's considerably more right-wing than she tries to appear.

paulmapp8306

What we have currently is "Im human so im entitled to everything" mentality,.  It needs toning down a little IMO,  

That said ??????  Im pretty central politically, and I believe the country is as well really.  There will always be hard left and hard right supporters, but power is won by those who win the swing seats - which by their nature are central politically.  The Party that is nearest to that centre usually wins elections I feel.

Its why I dont believe a Corbyn led part can win - regardless of his support in the party itself (grass roots).  Youd need a pretty right wing Con party for him to take those swing seats.