So, 4 days on, were Remain scaremongering or not?

ICBM

Fretwired said:

And Tata has taken Port Talbot off the market - they now want to keep it. Go figure ... 

Clarky said:

does that mean the Tata steel plant is no longer closing?

Or it means they've taken it off the market because they know no-one will want to buy a steel plant that's outside the EU, and they're going to close it down because it's cheaper than keeping it in working condition until a buyer is found.

I hope I'm wrong.

Evilmags

FT 100 now well above pre brexit levels. It is the EU that has been damaged here, not the UK: Either subsidized farming and its consequent overproduction of poor food will have to be cut back (At which point forget driving through France). Go do some numbers and place a few bets. It´s fun and at this stage fairly easy. 

paulmapp8306

Clarky;1136392" said:

I just took a look at the 1 month and 3 month graphs..they give a better indication..you can see the nervousness in early June.. and a recovery when they were thinking Remain would win, then the dive after the referendum.but yes, after the Monday following the referendum it's been steadily climbing and it looks to be roughly where is was back in March..

there is something that worries me about leaving the EU though.many big companies that work a great deal with the EU and rely on the free trade, services etc.. have been talking about moving their HQ's and offices to Dublin, Paris or Berlin. Vodafone is one, some other hi-tech companies in and around London, and more in the finance and manufacturing industries etc. And other companies have been talking about gradual / phased moves to these cities.Berlin has been trying to temp them over with grants and stuff..If this happens it could be pretty costly because this is where all the big money comes into the UK.Makes me kinda nervous..

Yes, that of potentially a concern. That said moving away from where we do/used to make money, into new opportunities we currently don't is part of the new possibilities with the change.

Nothing standard stoll, money finds a way, it just might be away from what we are used to.

paulmapp8306

- look to the FTSE 250.

I'm no expert her either, but have been monitoring both 100 and 250 daily this week among with £ exchange rates.

While not recovering as quickly or as completely as the 100, the 250 is doing quite nicely. It had recovered much of its losses, and is looking decent.

paulmapp8306

mellowsun;1136678" said:

Switzerland has just been told that there can be no access to the single market without free movement of EU nationals:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/03/eu-swiss-single-market-access-no-free-movement-citizens



So it appears that the key cornerstone of the Leave campaign (restricting EU migration) is unlikely to be realized here, unless we are happy to lose access to the single market.

It's been explained before, they can't stop access to the s as such though they can deny membership.

You don't have to be in the sm to trade in the eu.

Personally I'd rather trade with Europe without being in the sm, with the ups and downs that brings, than allow fm with no caps.

Fretwired

ICBM said:

Fretwired said:

And Tata has taken Port Talbot off the market - they now want to keep it. Go figure ... 

Clarky said:

does that mean the Tata steel plant is no longer closing?

Or it means they've taken it off the market because they know no-one will want to buy a steel plant that's outside the EU, and they're going to close it down because it's cheaper than keeping it in working condition until a buyer is found.

I hope I'm wrong.

No .. there are three buyers with cash who are disappointed .. probably Brexit means the UK government can impose tariffs on Chinese steel. The price of steel has also risen ..

mellowsun

paulmapp8306;1136757" said:

[quote="mellowsun;1136678"]Switzerland has just been told that there can be no access to the single market without free movement of EU nationals:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/03/eu-swiss-single-market-access-no-free-movement-citizens



So it appears that the key cornerstone of the Leave campaign (restricting EU migration) is unlikely to be realized here, unless we are happy to lose access to the single market.

It's been explained before, they can't stop access to the s as such though they can deny membership.

You don't have to be in the sm to trade in the eu.

Personally I'd rather trade with Europe without being in the sm, with the ups and downs that brings, than allow fm with no caps.
[/quote]

It's also been explained before the importance of access to the single market for inward investment in the UK, as well as for our own financial services. At the moment at least .

Ultimately I guess we will have to see how it all pans out.

It could be that new technology, particularly in FinTech, makes the SM redundant for many services.

quarky

Wow.

He said that "if the will of the people shifts" as details of what Brexit means for the country begin to emerge, then, "Why shouldn't we recognise that?"

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36698055

I bet he is not the only one thinking it (I understand the Government taking their position), but surprised that it is him that is saying it. Smart man.

Fretwired

Clarky said:

does that mean the Tata steel plant is no longer closing?

I had no idea.. if it's true that is absolutely awesome news..

Tata steel plant is not closing ... Tata have taken it off the market.

ICBM

quarky said:

Wow.

He said that "if the will of the people shifts" as details of what Brexit means for the country begin to emerge, then, "Why shouldn't we recognise that?"

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36698055

I bet he is not the only one thinking it (I understand the Government taking their position), but surprised that it is him that is saying it. Smart man. 

What if the will of the people shifts as details of how we were lied to in order to justify an illegal war emerge and whether the former Prime Minister who conducted it should be sent to The Hague… should we recognise that?

paulmapp8306

mellowsun said:

paulmapp8306;1136757" said:

[quote="mellowsun;1136678"]Switzerland has just been told that there can be no access to the single market without free movement of EU nationals:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/03/eu-swiss-single-market-access-no-free-movement-citizens



So it appears that the key cornerstone of the Leave campaign (restricting EU migration) is unlikely to be realized here, unless we are happy to lose access to the single market.

It's been explained before, they can't stop access to the s as such though they can deny membership.

You don't have to be in the sm to trade in the eu.

Personally I'd rather trade with Europe without being in the sm, with the ups and downs that brings, than allow fm with no caps.
[/quote]

It's also been explained before the importance of access to the single market for inward investment in the UK, as well as for our own financial services. At the moment at least .

Ultimately I guess we will have to see how it all pans out.

It could be that new technology, particularly in FinTech, makes the SM redundant for many services.

True.

Will the possible (probable/certain) standardising of corporation tax throughout the EU will be more of a negative to those big corps wanting to trade in Europe, than the tariffs and extra nause needed to trade from the UK with a much lower tax?  Im guessing thats more of a plain financial calculation than anything else - as their driven by proffit.

paulmapp8306

Got to sign.....

Just been speaking to a couple of acquaintances, who both stated they voted leave, and both stated they were on the fence.  Both also stated if another referendum were called - they would vote leave again - Why?  just to show the remainers protesting about the decision that you cant get what you want just because you throw a tantrum.

Are we really going to see people digging their heals in - just to "stick it" those who didnt like the original result and shouted about it?

I give up. 

Moe_Zambeek

quarky;1136814" said:

Wow.

He said that "if the will of the people shifts" as details of what Brexit means for the country begin to emerge, then, "Why shouldn't we recognise that?"http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36698055

I bet he is not the only one thinking it (I understand the Government taking their position), but surprised that it is him that is saying it. Smart man.

Tony Blair, in favour of doing what he thinks is best regardless of anyone else's opinion? There's a surprise!

Desperate times when Tone is considered a voice of reason

Fretwired

ICBM said:

quarky said:

Wow.

He said that "if the will of the people shifts" as details of what Brexit means for the country begin to emerge, then, "Why shouldn't we recognise that?"

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36698055

I bet he is not the only one thinking it (I understand the Government taking their position), but surprised that it is him that is saying it. Smart man. 

What if the will of the people shifts as details of how we were lied to in order to justify an illegal war emerge and whether the former Prime Minister who conducted it should be sent to The Hague… should we recognise that?

Spot on @ICBM

This is Tony Blair .. the guy that made £70 million out of his contacts and no doubt has one eye on replacing Junker as the price for stopping Brexit. There's only one thing to do if Blair offers you advice - get a second opinion.

capo4th

mellowsun said:

Switzerland has just been told that there can be no access to the single market without free movement of EU nationals:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/03/eu-swiss-single-market-access-no-free-movement-citizens

So it appears that the key cornerstone of the Leave campaign (restricting EU migration) is unlikely to be realized here, unless we are happy to lose access to the single market.

you mean that we are not taking back control and reducing immigration ? Thats why most people voted to leave is it not?

Clarky

capo4th said:

mellowsun said:

Switzerland has just been told that there can be no access to the single market without free movement of EU nationals:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/03/eu-swiss-single-market-access-no-free-movement-citizens

So it appears that the key cornerstone of the Leave campaign (restricting EU migration) is unlikely to be realized here, unless we are happy to lose access to the single market.

you mean that we are not taking back control and reducing immigration ? Thats why most people voted to leave is it not?

that's what the Leave campaigners told the country they'd get if they voted out

what they were told and what will happen may not be quite the same thing

shit isn't it

Clarky

Fretwired said:

ICBM said:

quarky said:

Wow.

He said that "if the will of the people shifts" as details of what Brexit means for the country begin to emerge, then, "Why shouldn't we recognise that?"

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36698055

I bet he is not the only one thinking it (I understand the Government taking their position), but surprised that it is him that is saying it. Smart man. 

What if the will of the people shifts as details of how we were lied to in order to justify an illegal war emerge and whether the former Prime Minister who conducted it should be sent to The Hague… should we recognise that?

Spot on @ICBM

This is Tony Blair .. the guy that made £70 million out of his contacts and no doubt has one eye on replacing Junker as the price for stopping Brexit. There's only one thing to do if Blair offers you advice - get a second opinion.

so… who would you prefer, Juncker or Blair??

is that like asking if you'd prefer a nobhead to a dickhead.. lmao

skankdelvar

It is a mark of Mr Blair's staggering hubris that he harbours ambitions to lead Brexit negotiations just as the 'hand of history' is about to deal him a colossal slap in the chops. Many have long considered 'the most successful Labour PM ever' to be a borderline nut job with messianic delusions. His most recent pronouncement suggests he is far beyond that stage.

As for the economy; well, the FTSE100, the FTSE 250 and the FTSE All Shares are currently bearing up. UK Gov Bonds indicate short to mid-term turbulence and long-term stability.

'Ah!' cry some. 'But what about Sterling? It's a complete mare!'

But is it?

One of the carefully cultivated scares prior to the referendum was that the BoE would be forced to raise interest rates to defend sterling and prevent capital flight. The cost of borrowing would rise; businesses would be hit and home-owners would be forced from their cherished properties by higher mortgage repayments. The housing market would crash. Golly!

Yet precisely the opposite has happened. Why is this?

Every central banker harbours the desire to talk down their currency. The Fed fears a strong dollar. The Chinese seek to drive down the renminbai. ECB QE depresses the Euro. In the currency war which has been raging unnoticed for years it is a race to the bottom which everyone's trying to win.

So when Carney announced the possibility of QE he knew exactly what he was doing; if the urbane Canuck hadn't wanted sterling to fall he wouldn't have said and done what he did. My fellow Remain voters were quick enough to laud Mr Carney when he issued Cassandra-like prophecies about Brexit; why should they stop trusting him now?

Anyway: were Remain scare-mongering? 

Answer: (i) No (ii) Yes and (iii) it's too early to say. 

Remain correctly identified a negative outcome. They overstated the immediate consequences. In the long-term they may be right or they may be wrong. It depends on the outcome of negotiations which nobody can predict with accuracy. If - as is suggested - the EU approaches discussions in an amicable fashion and the UK steers a middle course then there's a good chance that we may end up no worse off. 

Which - after the torrid convulsions of the last ten days - would be something of a result. 

More importantly - where's Farage? He seems to have gone missing. A crisp (virtual) fiver to anyone who can locate the smiling face of popular insurgency.

Sporky

skankdelvar said:

More importantly - where's Farage? He seems to have gone missing.

If I'd known that'd happen I'd have voted leave!

And an interesting post overall too.

ICBM

skankdelvar said:

So when Carney announced the possibility of QE he knew exactly what he was doing; if the urbane Canuck hadn't wanted sterling to fall he wouldn't have said what he did. My fellow Remain voters were quick enough to laud Mr Carney when he issued Cassandra-like prophecies about Brexit; why should they stop trusting him now?

He's one of the few players in this drama that I do trust. After denying that the BoE had a plan in the event of a Leave vote, it now emerges that they, er… did.

Well of course they did - it would have been a total failure of professional competence not to have. Equally, it was probably a good idea to keep quiet about it, since proclaiming loudly that they did may have led people to believe that they not only knew exactly what would happen, but encouraged people to vote for it.

skankdelvar said:

More importantly - where's Farage? He seems to have gone missing.

You say that like it's a bad thing...