So, 4 days on, were Remain scaremongering or not?

Sporky

paulmapp8306 said:

What we have currently is "Im human so im entitled to everything" mentality,.  It needs toning down a little IMO, 

How far?

paulmapp8306

Not much - but as in everything these days - everyone seems to think there entitled to everything they want, and everything available, without making any effort or contributing anything - then screaming "its my human right" - and a lot of the time screeming that just get them it.

Im probably over reacting to that, but making people think before they scream it - and actually making what they are entitled to reasonable as a "human entitlement" .

Im not saying we should be able to walk over anyone, or that they should be "exploitable"  in any way, but like so much - the pendulum seems to have swung too far one way.

Sporky

But you don't have any specific examples or suggestions?

hungrymark

p90fool;1135301" said:

[quote="ICBM;1135165"]Sporky said:I can't speak for anyone else, but I suspect that there are plenty of remainers who want EU reform too.





You can speak for me too if you like. I know I'm probably one of the forum's most overtly pro-EU members, but being in favour of staying in doesn't mean I'm totally in favour of everything it does - far from it.

Me too, I've said since the beginning, I totally believe in it as

ICBM;1135680" said:

Modulus_Amps said:

some interesting reading:



http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/685431/Brussels-wake-up-call-EU-Turkey



https://www.rt.com/news/349231-austria-eu-turkey-hofer/



The Brexit vote is stirring up more than just the UK:










As the Remain side said it would...

I'd sooner believe Russia Today than the Daily Excess too.

Seriously? I know the Express is on the ropey side but Russia Today?!? Haha

ICBM

hungrymark said:

Seriously? I know the Express is on the ropey side but Russia Today?!? Haha 

The Express is a ludicrous xenophobic rag which makes the Mail look like a paragon of balanced reporting.

RT is variable - when they're reporting on Russian-related matters they're shit-scared of ending up in a gulag propagandist and overtly pro-Russian, but when they're reporting on anything else they usually seem quite balanced.

skankdelvar

Were Remain scaremongering? It is too early to say, but early indications are that the immediate shock is dissipating. 

Sterling has fallen against the dollar and remains in the low $1.30's - a position towards which it has been drifting for a couple of years.After a steep fall the UK stock market has rebounded; the FTSE 100 is at a six month high. Mid and lower cap markets are also up on the month.

Mid-term UK government bond yields are marginally up but long term yields are down, suggesting that investors envisage minor turbulence over the next 2-4 years but stability within 10 years. UK government bonds are still far stronger than most world nations indicating a cautious but continuing confidence.

The UK's credit rating has dropped to AA, though one of the three agencies removed the UK's AAA rating as long ago as 2013. Only this week did the other two agencies follow suit. AA means increased borrowing costs; it also places the UK alongside Belgium, New Zealand and Kuwait and above Poland and Saudi Arabia. This is not good news; neither is it dire.

What of the predicted damage to the UK's economic relationship with the EU?

Remain suggested that the EU would punish the UK severely and unilaterally; Leave suggested that sectional economic interests would divide EU nations and institutions into friends and enemies of the UK. The mixed response from Europe suggests that - at this very early stage - Leave may have been slightly more accurate in their analysis. 

Key to the continuation of a favourable trading relationship is the question of which European body takes the lead in exit negotiations and a re-framed trade deal. The EC (led by Juncker) seems to favour immediate punishment and penurious terms though their (mainly) French supporters seem split. The Council Of Ministers (at Germany's behest) favours firm though friendly medium-term discussions. Whoever runs the talks will have the continent's financial future in their hands. If the EC wins control of the negotiations we may expect Germany (and the Eastern bloc) to intervene from above to blunt moves of a hostile nature.

The suggestion that the UK would be penalised in an attempt to head off other mutinously Eurosceptic national constituencies seems to have been contradicted by continental reactions; the principle theme expressed by European politicians and institutions seems to be that the EU must now change itself to meet the varied needs of the different EU nations. The arch-federalist Helmut Kohl has emerged from retirement to pronounce that 'European Unity does not mean European Standardisation'. 

The mood music suggests that Europe may at last choose to reject stern, Juncker-esque dirigisme and embrace a more flexible approach. What better way to sell that change to the grumbling masses than to show that the UK can maintain (in some way) a positive relationship with the Eurozone while retaining national autonomy?

More than anything, people and institutions need confidence that uncertainty and instability will subside. A swift resolution to the Tory leadership vacuum will re-instil global confidence as would an end to the outlandish convulsions enveloping the Labour party. To have one main party out of action is unfortunate; to have both parties bereft of a helmsman looks just a little careless to the watching world.

hungrymark

ICBM;1136132" said:

hungrymark said:Seriously? I know the Express is on the ropey side but Russia Today?!? Haha 





The Express is a ludicrous xenophobic rag which makes the Mail look like a paragon of balanced reporting.

RT is variable - when they're reporting on Russian-related matters they're shit-scared of ending up in a gulag propagandist and overtly pro-Russian, but when they're reporting on anything else they usually seem quite balanced.

They're state-owned, very pro-Putin and very anti-western. When I was in Moscow I got talking to a chap in a bar who used to work for them - they were 'discouraged' (polite term) from reporting anything that put any western government in a positive light. There was a lot going on about Litvinenko when I was there, the coverage was ridiculous. They're a step beyond anything in our mainstream media.

paulmapp8306

Sporky said:

But you don't have any specific examples or suggestions?

No - its just a general thing.  The point is, I dont see much changing regards HR outside the EU - and if there was a little I dont think it would be an issue at all.

paulmapp8306

skankdelvar said:

Were Remain scaremongering? It is too early to say, but early indications are that the immediate shock is dissipating. 

Sterling has fallen against the dollar and remains in the low $1.30's - a position towards which it has been drifting for a couple of years.After a steep fall the UK stock market has rebounded; the FTSE 100 is at a six month high. Mid and lower cap markets are also up on the month.

Mid-term UK government bond yields are marginally up but long term yields are down, suggesting that investors envisage minor turbulence over the next 2-4 years but stability within 10 years. UK government bonds are still far stronger than most world nations indicating a cautious but continuing confidence.

The UK's credit rating has dropped to AA, though one of the three agencies removed the UK's AAA rating as long ago as 2013. Only this week did the other two agencies follow suit. AA means increased borrowing costs; it also places the UK alongside Belgium, New Zealand and Kuwait and above Poland and Saudi Arabia. This is not good news; neither is it dire.

What of the predicted damage to the UK's economic relationship with the EU?

Remain suggested that the EU would punish the UK severely and unilaterally; Leave suggested that sectional economic interests would divide EU nations and institutions into friends and enemies of the UK. The mixed response from Europe suggests that - at this very early stage - Leave may have been slightly more accurate in their analysis. 

Key to the continuation of a favourable trading relationship is the question of which European body takes the lead in exit negotiations and a re-framed trade deal. The EC (led by Juncker) seems to favour immediate punishment and penurious terms though their (mainly) French supporters seem split. The Council Of Ministers (at Germany's behest) favours firm though friendly medium-term discussions. Whoever runs the talks will have the continent's financial future in their hands. If the EC wins control of the negotiations we may expect Germany (and the Eastern bloc) to intervene from above to blunt moves of a hostile nature.

The suggestion that the UK would be penalised in an attempt to head off other mutinously Eurosceptic national constituencies seems to have been contradicted by continental reactions; the principle theme expressed by European politicians and institutions seems to be that the EU must now change itself to meet the varied needs of the different EU nations. The arch-federalist Helmut Kohl has emerged from retirement to pronounce that 'European Unity does not mean European Standardisation'. 

The mood music suggests that Europe may at last choose to reject stern, Juncker-esque dirigisme and embrace a more flexible approach. What better way to sell that change to the grumbling masses than to show that the UK can maintain (in some way) a positive relationship with the Eurozone while retaining national autonomy?

More than anything, people and institutions need confidence that uncertainty and instability will subside. A swift resolution to the Tory leadership vacuum will re-instil global confidence as would an end to the outlandish convulsions enveloping the Labour party. To have one main party out of action is unfortunate; to have both parties bereft of a helmsman looks just a little careless to the watching world.

What a fantastic post.

hungrymark

Yes, excellent.

Chalky

hungrymark;1136292" said:

Yes, excellent.

Hear, hear!

Clarky

skankdelvar said:

After a steep fall the UK stock market has rebounded; the FTSE 100 is at a six month high. Mid and lower cap markets are also up on the month.

I'm certainly no expert on the subject, but the FTSE100 may not be the best indicator because most, if not all of the companies in there are multi-national. So much of their business is outside of the UK. Like taking raw materials from Africa and selling them to Asia or America for example [maybe a crap example].

The FTSE250 may be a better indicator cos it's companies with a mainly UK  / European slant. And I think the FTSE250 is struggling.

Like I say, I'm certainly not an expert on this stuff. I'm just relaying stuff I've heard elsewhere.

John_P

I keep seeing reports that we should ignore the ftse100 looking good and the 250 is poor but I just googled it and the graphs don't look great but they don't look horrific either unless I'm missing something.   I see a lot of up and down but overall I wouldn't call the current value struggling.   

http://moneyweek.com/prices-news-charts/ftse-250/

Hopefully everything is starting to calm down -  I suspect the leadership issues in both main parties is causing a lot of uncertainty that isn't helping.

skankdelvar

Clarky said:

skankdelvar said:

After a steep fall the UK stock market has rebounded; the FTSE 100 is at a six month high. Mid and lower cap markets are also up on the month.

I'm certainly no expert on the subject, but the FTSE100 may not be the best indicator because most, if not all of the companies in there are multi-national. So much of their business is outside of the UK. Like taking raw materials from Africa and selling them to Asia or America for example [maybe a crap example].

The FTSE250 may be a better indicator cos it's companies with a mainly UK  / European slant. And I think the FTSE250 is struggling.

Like I say, I'm certainly not an expert on this stuff. I'm just relaying stuff I've heard elsewhere.

:-) Quite so. The FTSE100 has indeed performed best but that's because there are a large number of companies within the ranking with US parents or who trade in dollars. After the initial panic it's been good for them.

The FTSE 250 is composed of mid-cap companies with more of a UK - er - bent and has taken a little longer to bounce back. But bounce back it has.

Mr JohnP has linked to today's 250 which indicates a climb. Here's the past week (below)

And here's the last 5 years

As we can see, there's a nasty dip just after the referendum result. We could have done without it. 

But a mortal wound? Not at this stage. It's higher than at any time before 2014

Mind you, all the chattering classes have to do is keep talking the country down and agitating for a second referendum (and more uncertainty) and matters will probably get worse. 

Of course, further declines might have the effect of scaring the Great Unwashed into walking the result back. 

Surely the professional Remainers wouldn't be that cynical?

Clarky

I just took a look at the 1 month and 3 month graphs..

they give a better indication..

you can see the nervousness in early June.. and a recovery when they were thinking Remain would win, then the dive after the referendum.

but yes, after the Monday following the referendum it's been steadily climbing and it looks to be roughly where is was back in March..

there is something that worries me about leaving the EU though.

many big companies that work a great deal with the EU and rely on the free trade, services etc.. have been talking about moving their HQ's and offices to Dublin, Paris or Berlin. Vodafone is one, some other hi-tech companies in and around London, and more in the finance and manufacturing industries etc. And other companies have been talking about gradual / phased moves to these cities.

Berlin has been trying to temp them over with grants and stuff..

If this happens it could be pretty costly because this is where all the big money comes into the UK.

Makes me kinda nervous..

RaymondLin

I really want to know where is this optimism for the Leave coming from?

Is it really just blind faith?  Because I see no evidence how it could be better off for the foreseeable future for leaving. 

Moe_Zambeek

Dublin is a tempting location because it has a corporation tax rate of around 12%. Unfortunately one of the stated aims of the EU is to remove tax advantages so expect harmonisation of that rate in the short to medium term.

Chalky

RaymondLin;1136399" said:

I really want to know where is this optimism for the Leave coming from?

Is it really just blind faith?  Because I see no evidence how it could be better off for the foreseeable future for leaving. 

Its not blind faith as far as folks earlier in the thread are concerned. Its confidence based on knowing how financial markets and international trade works.

Sporky

skankdelvar said:

Mind you, all the chattering classes have to do is keep talking the country down and agitating for a second referendum (and more uncertainty) and matters will probably get worse. 

Of course, further declines might have the effect of scaring the Great Unwashed into walking the result back. 

Surely the professional Remainers wouldn't be that cynical?

But it's the remainers who are snobs - if you're pro-leave you're not allowed to use terms like "the great unwashed" or "the chattering classes". You're doing this wrong.

As for the last comment, it's very easy to poison the well that way. You don't know other peoples' motivations so all the conspiracy theory stuff is ridiculous - on a par with the pro-Leavers who said that the vote was going be rigged and claimed to have proof of this. When it went their way they very quickly stopped making that claim.

I don't think either side gets a natural claim to a moral high ground. The remain campaign relied on fear and exaggeration, the Leave campaign relied on outright lies which they retracted within two days of the result. Beyond that everything is speculation and interpreting limited data with whatever skew suits the interpreter.

Chalky

@Sporky said "Beyond that everything is speculation and interpreting limited data with whatever skew suits the interpreter."

No it is not speculation. When you are referred to an oncologist, does he speculate in his diagnosis or does he carefully form it based on his training, knowledge and experience of treating cancer?

Brexit may seem like a big thing but it is nowhere near big enough to change the fundamentals of how financial markets and international trade works.